"The enemy committed massacres, destroyed our countries, divided our nation, bet on some weak and cowards, and targeted leaders and heroes to tell us one word: "There is no point in resistance" but they failed."- Martyr Sayyed Hashem Safi al-Din (may God be pleased with him)
And with these words that foreshadowed, Israel lost because it failed to conquer the people and force the resistance to surrender.
The mood in Israel today is clear, they are mad because they feel they didn't achieve what they expected to in Lebanon.
They will agree to a ceasefire 48 hours after Hezbullah made Israel from Metulla to Tel Aviv under fire.
If Lebanon showed weakness and was "an easy meal", Israel would not have agreed on a ceasefire. Justify it elsewise.
Last part of the thread below will talk about the ceasefire, what are its terms and will it stand? #admin
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Final question: Is this ceasefire good for Lebanon. Did Hezbullah achieve any deterrence similar to the 2006 war❓
All the above details and reasoning justified the logic of this ceasefire and and highlighted some misconceptions for many then tackled what was achieved and what was lost in this battle where Israel was the aggressor and Hezbullah the defender.
Some points are clear and Hezbullah is unlikely to tackle them this clearly in terms of saying "we reached our peak" however their honesty is seen through their actions.
Before I continue, I'd like to ask those who never heard an airstrike, shot at, or injured or ever were part of a military to stfu and ahhhh to go show us what they can achieve better and risk their lives and their peace in life and involve themselves in the risks of war and resistance
Second and very importantly, it is important not to compare Hezbullah to Iraq's resistance or Yemen's Ansraullah. It's quite simple but people continue to compare apples to oranges......let's call it compare avocado oil with olive oil.
In brief, the difference stems from the heat caused to each during this support front. This is why I used the oil analogy on purpose. The direct burden faced by Lebanon in one day, surpasses the collective burdens faced by both Yemen and Iraq in a full year and this is an important factor that affects the decision making.
Had Iraq been under constant Israeli attacks, which so far it wasn't attacked once, and if Yemen is under constant attacks on its ports, airports, and so on.. things would be a little different. Even despite that, comparing Iraq to Yemen also is wrong. Each front has its own peculiarities and special conditions.
Now, what are the terms of this ceasefire:
The agreement will actually lead to an immediate ceasefire that can come into effect within hours on the border.
Tomorrow at 4 pm the Israeli cabinet will meet to discuss the details of the agreement and is expected to approve it during the discussion.
These are the main points of the agreement as we revealed on the weekend:
- The IDF will withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days
- The forces of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL will be deployed along all border crossings
- An international committee headed by the US will be established to enforce the agreement
- Israel and Lebanon will agree to hold negotiations on the border route
It's simple. It's like the war never happened and Hezbullah didn't conceed anything. Hezbullah isn't going to surrender its arms, no one is forcing it to dismantle itself. No one is forcing it to become solely a political party
And if there was condition to demand Hezbullah to move its heavy weapons north of the Litani? Well as the weapons entered in secret without anyone seeing them, Hezbullah can assume there is nothing to move. It's really all about deception and bluff.
What will happen is it'll become harder for Hezbullah to manage rebuilding in secret because the Lebanese army and the UN might become more proactive.
The threat also is tha Israel will get what is called a freedom of action mechanism:
If an "immediate threat" is identified - Israel has the freedom to act immediately, to attack and remove the threat. This sounds bad, but it is also about Lebanon. It's like self defense not freedom of operation in Lebanon. Assume Israel detects a rocket launcher being primed to fire at them.
The agreement also includes possibly a clause that if a non-immediate threat is detected (for example - they detect an attempt to dig a tunnel near the border) - Israel will alert the monitoring and enforcement mechanism led by the US.
The mechanism will be required to activate the Lebanese army and UNIFIL against the violation. If there is no enforcement, or if the threat becomes immediate - Israel will attack. I talked about this here, read it.
What is unfortunate, is that this ceasefire won't free Hezbullah fighters and martyr bodies who were captured in this war. This will cause issues eventually. There are about 7-8 prisoners and many bodies.
Continued below. #admin
All the above details and reasoning justified the logic of this ceasefire and and highlighted some misconceptions for many then tackled what was achieved and what was lost in this battle where Israel was the aggressor and Hezbullah the defender.
Some points are clear and Hezbullah is unlikely to tackle them this clearly in terms of saying "we reached our peak" however their honesty is seen through their actions.
Before I continue, I'd like to ask those who never heard an airstrike, shot at, or injured or ever were part of a military to stfu and ahhhh to go show us what they can achieve better and risk their lives and their peace in life and involve themselves in the risks of war and resistance
Second and very importantly, it is important not to compare Hezbullah to Iraq's resistance or Yemen's Ansraullah. It's quite simple but people continue to compare apples to oranges......let's call it compare avocado oil with olive oil.
In brief, the difference stems from the heat caused to each during this support front. This is why I used the oil analogy on purpose. The direct burden faced by Lebanon in one day, surpasses the collective burdens faced by both Yemen and Iraq in a full year and this is an important factor that affects the decision making.
Had Iraq been under constant Israeli attacks, which so far it wasn't attacked once, and if Yemen is under constant attacks on its ports, airports, and so on.. things would be a little different. Even despite that, comparing Iraq to Yemen also is wrong. Each front has its own peculiarities and special conditions.
Now, what are the terms of this ceasefire:
The agreement will actually lead to an immediate ceasefire that can come into effect within hours on the border.
Tomorrow at 4 pm the Israeli cabinet will meet to discuss the details of the agreement and is expected to approve it during the discussion.
These are the main points of the agreement as we revealed on the weekend:
- The IDF will withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days
- The forces of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL will be deployed along all border crossings
- An international committee headed by the US will be established to enforce the agreement
- Israel and Lebanon will agree to hold negotiations on the border route
It's simple. It's like the war never happened and Hezbullah didn't conceed anything. Hezbullah isn't going to surrender its arms, no one is forcing it to dismantle itself. No one is forcing it to become solely a political party
And if there was condition to demand Hezbullah to move its heavy weapons north of the Litani? Well as the weapons entered in secret without anyone seeing them, Hezbullah can assume there is nothing to move. It's really all about deception and bluff.
What will happen is it'll become harder for Hezbullah to manage rebuilding in secret because the Lebanese army and the UN might become more proactive.
The threat also is tha Israel will get what is called a freedom of action mechanism:
If an "immediate threat" is identified - Israel has the freedom to act immediately, to attack and remove the threat. This sounds bad, but it is also about Lebanon. It's like self defense not freedom of operation in Lebanon. Assume Israel detects a rocket launcher being primed to fire at them.
The agreement also includes possibly a clause that if a non-immediate threat is detected (for example - they detect an attempt to dig a tunnel near the border) - Israel will alert the monitoring and enforcement mechanism led by the US.
The mechanism will be required to activate the Lebanese army and UNIFIL against the violation. If there is no enforcement, or if the threat becomes immediate - Israel will attack. I talked about this here, read it.
What is unfortunate, is that this ceasefire won't free Hezbullah fighters and martyr bodies who were captured in this war. This will cause issues eventually. There are about 7-8 prisoners and many bodies.
Continued below. #admin
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Part 2
The last two terms are what would have happened after 2006 had there been no deterrence.
As for this 2 month war and ongoing, there doesn't seem to be yet any indications that Hezbullah was able to achieve sustainable progress to rebuild this deterrence for various factors.
However we can better judge this progress by how Israel will act in the weeks and months and years that will follow this ceasefire.
We all know well, that Hezbullah will grow again, will organize training camps, will dig tunnels, will snuggle weapons, will hand flags, will everything.
Will Israel attack Beirut? Will they attack this demonstration? Or will they be forced to look from the screen of their drone and their spies at a man or men they wanted to kill once and are unable to press a button to kill them now.
They will definitely not attack openly Beirut again, and will see Hezbullah again like bees building the nest.
This will erode like water erodes stone over time the freedom of operation of Israelis in Lebanon and rebuild deterrence. Deterrence will also be built slowly with each Hezbullah retaliation to Israeli violation of the ceasefire, because Hezbullah will not accept the terms of freedom of Israeli operations in Lebanon.
An attack on Hezbullah is an attack on Lebanon and to protect Lebanon you attack back. You get what I mean here
On the other side, Israel retreating in 60 days is not far from the time they took to retreat in 2006. War ended in July and they completed withdrawal in Oct 2006.
The issue is, what do they expect Lebanon and the UN to do for them against Hezbullah to feel satisfied in these two months and withdraw? Will they backstab and stay because they were satisfied by the Lebanese army doing their job?
Regardless. Expected more friction between "locals" and the UN. Unfortunately I don't feel optimistic that peace will be long like after 2006 even if this ceasefire lasts. Idk we'll have to wait for some time to read the situation better.
I'm worried particularly about the prisoners, because this ceasefire doesn't free them.
Finally, if this ceasefire collapses or not, as much as it will help the IDF to refresh and help lower the strain on its reserve soldiers, it'll substantially help Hezbullah's fighters and commanders to rest & meet their families, regroup, re-arm and send reinforcement.I hope they will be careful and secretive.
There is one last part, and it's about your role as civilians during the ceasefire and in the future. #admin
The last two terms are what would have happened after 2006 had there been no deterrence.
As for this 2 month war and ongoing, there doesn't seem to be yet any indications that Hezbullah was able to achieve sustainable progress to rebuild this deterrence for various factors.
However we can better judge this progress by how Israel will act in the weeks and months and years that will follow this ceasefire.
We all know well, that Hezbullah will grow again, will organize training camps, will dig tunnels, will snuggle weapons, will hand flags, will everything.
Will Israel attack Beirut? Will they attack this demonstration? Or will they be forced to look from the screen of their drone and their spies at a man or men they wanted to kill once and are unable to press a button to kill them now.
They will definitely not attack openly Beirut again, and will see Hezbullah again like bees building the nest.
This will erode like water erodes stone over time the freedom of operation of Israelis in Lebanon and rebuild deterrence. Deterrence will also be built slowly with each Hezbullah retaliation to Israeli violation of the ceasefire, because Hezbullah will not accept the terms of freedom of Israeli operations in Lebanon.
An attack on Hezbullah is an attack on Lebanon and to protect Lebanon you attack back. You get what I mean here
On the other side, Israel retreating in 60 days is not far from the time they took to retreat in 2006. War ended in July and they completed withdrawal in Oct 2006.
The issue is, what do they expect Lebanon and the UN to do for them against Hezbullah to feel satisfied in these two months and withdraw? Will they backstab and stay because they were satisfied by the Lebanese army doing their job?
Regardless. Expected more friction between "locals" and the UN. Unfortunately I don't feel optimistic that peace will be long like after 2006 even if this ceasefire lasts. Idk we'll have to wait for some time to read the situation better.
I'm worried particularly about the prisoners, because this ceasefire doesn't free them.
Finally, if this ceasefire collapses or not, as much as it will help the IDF to refresh and help lower the strain on its reserve soldiers, it'll substantially help Hezbullah's fighters and commanders to rest & meet their families, regroup, re-arm and send reinforcement.I hope they will be careful and secretive.
There is one last part, and it's about your role as civilians during the ceasefire and in the future. #admin
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Finally, you should stay silent...shhhh Shhh, but about what❓
You as a Lebanese Shia living in Beirut, south, Beqaa and Baalbek will live among the resistance which is from you and for you, and for that you have to protect it like it protects you
How? It's quite simple. Don't tell your friends in real life or over the phone stories about members of Hezbullah you heard nor tell them about what you saw nor mention anything you know.
Don't tell them stories about this war nor ask. Yes. Don't ask nor learn what you shouldn't know about. Help them stay safe by not knowing what you could mistakenly reveal and help Israel.
Any information as small as you think, can build up to great breaches. I don't know what else to elaborate here
As for Hezbullah, I hope and I'm sure inshallah they will take the adequate measures to combat information leaks and protect themselves. I hope they start by hiding faces in funerals and tightening security and combating phone usage in various places. Educating the fighters on risks and teaching them how to act on these topics will help blind Israel on mang things. #admin
You as a Lebanese Shia living in Beirut, south, Beqaa and Baalbek will live among the resistance which is from you and for you, and for that you have to protect it like it protects you
How? It's quite simple. Don't tell your friends in real life or over the phone stories about members of Hezbullah you heard nor tell them about what you saw nor mention anything you know.
Don't tell them stories about this war nor ask. Yes. Don't ask nor learn what you shouldn't know about. Help them stay safe by not knowing what you could mistakenly reveal and help Israel.
Any information as small as you think, can build up to great breaches. I don't know what else to elaborate here
As for Hezbullah, I hope and I'm sure inshallah they will take the adequate measures to combat information leaks and protect themselves. I hope they start by hiding faces in funerals and tightening security and combating phone usage in various places. Educating the fighters on risks and teaching them how to act on these topics will help blind Israel on mang things. #admin
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Is there any topic or point that needs to be discussed so I can cover it?
Anonymous Poll
65%
No
35%
Yes (mention in the comments)
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With all the risks of the ceasefire fire and the refreshment time for the IDF in winter that could have been an advantage for the defender Hezbullah, below is the insight on how Israelis are talking and acting about this ceasefire.
These will give you a good understanding of the situation.
All the below is quoted from Israeli media:
- Netanyahu in a marathon of phone calls to public figures and opinion leaders in order to convince of the necessity of signing the agreement with Hezbullah
- Yair Golan at his faction's meeting:
"Netanyahu will be a prisoner in orange who will spend his days in prison reflecting on the damage he inflicted on us"
- Head of the Metula Council, David Azoulai Legia Peleg - calls on the residents not to return and find a new home in the state of Tel Aviv
- Senior Israeli officials: after the agreement - there will be no official call for residents to return to their homes (so the war goal was not achieved and if the war starts again they will be worried about having to evacuate them again)
- Classes in all educational institutions in Acre and Haifa will not take place tomorrow. No educational activity will take place in Ma'alot Tarshikha tomorrow either. (Hezbullah is still able to exert fear in Israel)
- Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman in an interview with Gideon Oko: There is an important operational achievement that was not achieved in the war, and it is critical [we failed]
- Kiryat Shmona Mayor: The evacuation plan carried out by the Israeli government since the outbreak of the war on Lebanon is a failure.
Kiryat Shmona Mayor: Members of the government who support reaching a settlement with Lebanon should move and live in Kiryat Shmona.
- Channel 12: There will be no buffer zone in southern Lebanon and the residents of the south will return to all Lebanese villages, which worries the residents of the north
- Shlomi Council Chairman: We will not extend a helping hand to the government and we will not return to our homes.
- Israeli calls for a demonstration tomorrow on Begin Street in Tel Aviv, to reject the agreement intended to be signed with Lebanon, describing it as “killing the settlers of the north, and crossing a red line by the Netanyahu government, which chose to ignore the heavy price paid by hundreds of thousands of evacuated settlers and soldiers.”
These will give you a good understanding of the situation.
All the below is quoted from Israeli media:
- Netanyahu in a marathon of phone calls to public figures and opinion leaders in order to convince of the necessity of signing the agreement with Hezbullah
- Yair Golan at his faction's meeting:
"Netanyahu will be a prisoner in orange who will spend his days in prison reflecting on the damage he inflicted on us"
- Head of the Metula Council, David Azoulai Legia Peleg - calls on the residents not to return and find a new home in the state of Tel Aviv
- Senior Israeli officials: after the agreement - there will be no official call for residents to return to their homes (so the war goal was not achieved and if the war starts again they will be worried about having to evacuate them again)
- Classes in all educational institutions in Acre and Haifa will not take place tomorrow. No educational activity will take place in Ma'alot Tarshikha tomorrow either. (Hezbullah is still able to exert fear in Israel)
- Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman in an interview with Gideon Oko: There is an important operational achievement that was not achieved in the war, and it is critical [we failed]
- Kiryat Shmona Mayor: The evacuation plan carried out by the Israeli government since the outbreak of the war on Lebanon is a failure.
Kiryat Shmona Mayor: Members of the government who support reaching a settlement with Lebanon should move and live in Kiryat Shmona.
- Channel 12: There will be no buffer zone in southern Lebanon and the residents of the south will return to all Lebanese villages, which worries the residents of the north
- Shlomi Council Chairman: We will not extend a helping hand to the government and we will not return to our homes.
- Israeli calls for a demonstration tomorrow on Begin Street in Tel Aviv, to reject the agreement intended to be signed with Lebanon, describing it as “killing the settlers of the north, and crossing a red line by the Netanyahu government, which chose to ignore the heavy price paid by hundreds of thousands of evacuated settlers and soldiers.”
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If a ceasefire goes through, it is important to not over rejoice or celebrate, because as good as it is to end this war, we have not forget that we have martyrs in the fields we have to retrieve and bury, we have fighters who are still fighting for months at the very edge of the border, we have grieving families that we have to comfort, we have injured we have to take care of and we have people and displacement individuals we should support.
And we have a leader who we didn't make a funeral for yet and cry and grief adequately for.
For that, we have to humble the actions based on the reality.
And we have a leader who we didn't make a funeral for yet and cry and grief adequately for.
For that, we have to humble the actions based on the reality.
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My brain melted. No more writing today.
Back to posts and copy pasting with some proofreading haha
Back to posts and copy pasting with some proofreading haha
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Lebanese News and Updates
❗️Hezbullah released their first FPV attack on an Israeli M113 armored vehicle in the western side of Tayr Harfa
⭕️ The footage released by Hezbullah targeting a Israeli robot-controlled M113 vehicle is between Tayr Harfa and Shamaa.
📍It was geolocated by Happygibbon on X at 33.150491201794246, 35.20391907218044
📍It was geolocated by Happygibbon on X at 33.150491201794246, 35.20391907218044
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Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Remember Dier Mimas town that rejected Hezbullah and allowed the Israeli army to enter the town?
Footage was leaked of Israeli soldiers inside the church of Dier Mimas, desecrating it, dancing, cursing Jesus and toying with the bible and crosses.
Footage was leaked of Israeli soldiers inside the church of Dier Mimas, desecrating it, dancing, cursing Jesus and toying with the bible and crosses.
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🇱🇧 Border town of Yarin, South Lebanon |
Israeli soldiers turned Yarin Secondary School into a military base during their invasion into the town. They parked their vehicles and played with the children's desks and books.
Yarine is a Lebanese sunni town, with only a few Christian and Shia families.
Israeli soldiers turned Yarin Secondary School into a military base during their invasion into the town. They parked their vehicles and played with the children's desks and books.
Yarine is a Lebanese sunni town, with only a few Christian and Shia families.
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Lebanese News and Updates
📸 So not only is the mosque not for the Shia Muslim and is the Sunni locals in Yarine, which means Hezbullah nor Shia are there, it is called Salah eddine al-Ayoubi.
📸 Aftermath of their attack on the local Sunni mosque in Yarine town, which they demolished.
Highlighting sect to show that what they destroyed wasn't affiliated with Hezbullah and that they attacked Christians and Sunni towns even when they weren't part of the war.
Unlike Rmeich, other Christian and Sunni towns were all attacked by the Jews and their places of worship and houses all targeted.
In all of these non-Shia towns, Hezbullah didn't fight the IDF.
Highlighting sect to show that what they destroyed wasn't affiliated with Hezbullah and that they attacked Christians and Sunni towns even when they weren't part of the war.
Unlike Rmeich, other Christian and Sunni towns were all attacked by the Jews and their places of worship and houses all targeted.
In all of these non-Shia towns, Hezbullah didn't fight the IDF.
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❗️Hezbullah announced rare FPV drone attacks today, announcing they targeted:
- Israeli soldiers in Al-Ajl Plateau, north of the Kfar Yoval settlement
- Israeli vehicles and artillery howitzer in Yarine town in Lebanon
- Israeli soldiers' sleeping quarters in Kabri settlement
All 3 events took place today at 3 pm.
- Israeli soldiers in Al-Ajl Plateau, north of the Kfar Yoval settlement
- Israeli vehicles and artillery howitzer in Yarine town in Lebanon
- Israeli soldiers' sleeping quarters in Kabri settlement
All 3 events took place today at 3 pm.
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Lebanese News and Updates
❗️ Rocket alerts in the western Galilee
🇮🇱l🇱🇧 Hebrew media: Medics are responding to reports of rocket impacts in the northern city of Nahariya.
Sirens had in the city and other towns in the Western Galilee amid a barrage launched by Hezbullah.
Sirens had in the city and other towns in the Western Galilee amid a barrage launched by Hezbullah.
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Lebanese News and Updates
Remember Dier Mimas town that rejected Hezbullah and allowed the Israeli army to enter the town?
❗️Hezbullah announced the 4th FPV attack today, targeting soldiers in Dier Mimas town
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חדשות בזמן בטלגרם - קבוצת החדשות הגדולה בישראל
תושבי נהריה נמכרתם לחיזבאללה
ממשלת הרפיסות של נתניהו מעניקה את נהריה לחיזבאללה
ממשלת הרפיסות של נתניהו מעניקה את נהריה לחיזבאללה
🇮🇱l🇱🇧 Israeli media: "Nahariyya, Netanyahu has sold you to Hezbullah"
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Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🎥| Israelis were asked if they support a ceasefire?
Israelis who voted for Netanyahu’s coalition were asked whether they support or oppose a ceasefire in Lebanon at this stage of the war:
• 88% opposed
• 10% are in favor
Considering that a ceasefire would serve as a temporary pause, until the US admin changes, are you in favor or opposed?
• 55% are in favor
• 41% opposed
By: @FotrosResistance
Israelis who voted for Netanyahu’s coalition were asked whether they support or oppose a ceasefire in Lebanon at this stage of the war:
• 88% opposed
• 10% are in favor
Considering that a ceasefire would serve as a temporary pause, until the US admin changes, are you in favor or opposed?
• 55% are in favor
• 41% opposed
By: @FotrosResistance
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