Med please mate..walla I'm still typing my answers.

Just finished by pot of coffee. Give me few minutes hahaha (jk jk, thanks)

❗️Hezbullah released their first FPV attack on an Israeli M113 armored vehicle in the western side of Tayr Harfa

First question: Is a ceasefire now between Hezbullah and Israel a correction choice? And is by doing so abandoning Gaza and Sayyed's promise ❓

As mentioned in my old post, a few months into the support front, Hezbullah reached the maximum impact it could achieve in support of Gaza

It was able to tie a substantial amount of Israeli forces, force a great economic toll by evacuating the north and stopping business, and then forced the connoscription of many Israeli reserve forces

Later on, the toll started to become heavier on Hezbullah and Lebanon until we reached this war that started in a catastrophic matter

With this limited impact on Gaza, Hezbullah no longer has any leverage or ability to exert any pressure on Israeli forces greater than what it did during the past two months by forcing all the Israeli forces from land to sky to operate here

And as already mentioned, the conditions to stopping those two wars are distinct because of the events of 7-Oct. Israel has already achieved everything military wise it could in Gaza and despite that and the risks on hostages, it didn't stop yet.

Netanyahu's war, could end any day and this is what all Israeli officials agree on yet he won't stop until he can end Gaza. This is too big of a matter that Hezbullah alone cannot help reverse and this should be a grander Arab and Muslim effort to stop. Which we saw none of

So when Hezbullah reaches a ceasefire, they are doing the correct things because the support front itself was aiming not to defeat Israel. Not to destroy Israel. Not to cripple the Israeli army. But rather to exert pressure on Israel to end the war on Gaza. And no one expected Israel to maintain a 1 year war, and accept sustaining this many casualties and continue. Times have changed

So how would you blame Hezbullah who tried to pressure Israel to end a war on Gaza and save it, to object ending the war in Lebanon and on Hezbullah? It's a matter of surviving and ensuring there is a next day. There is no higher goal than to ensure that there is a next day and ensuring Hezbullah survives as a resistance that will continue to protect the Lebanese state and ensure Lebanon never surrenders to normalization. It's a motto in Hezbullah that every leader and martyr echoes: "Our will, is to protect the Islamic resistance"

So with reaching limitations and the lack of things to achieve in this war, because this war now is in defense not in offense, it is the correct path to go through. Sheikh Naim mentioned that we have transcended the support front, and are now in a battle called Ualeh al-Ba's. By that he means the war has transected the boundaries of support, and is now a war on Lebanon and a war being fought as a result of Hezbullah's moral and religious duty that forced it to support Gaza

In 2008,2012,2014,2021 Hezbullah didn't fight alongside Gaza, so do we consider Hezbullah a traitor for abandoning them then? No

During all that, Hezbullah and Iran helped smuggle weapons to Gaza and teach its commander how to manufacture and how to plan in order to upscale and upgrade their abilities

Support starts from training, money, media, and not exclusively fighting side by side. Hezbullah did all and paid a great price for each

Our war with Israel is not a war to end all wars like WW2, but as Sayyed Hassan described it: a series of battles and continuous blows until we reach our goals of defeating Israel as a state

So Hezbullah didn't abandon Gaza. We could say Hezbullah abandoned it if they stopped during the support front, and accepted to separate paths and accept to save itself and just watch things progress

Yet they didn't accept to stop until they reached the peak of their ability and lost their leadership and historic leaders and defended heroically Lebanon

Finally, is Hezbullah stopping the war now abandoning Sayed Hassan's promise to not stop until the war in Gaza in stopped?

Not at all. Quoting sayyed Hassan on this only without taking context is like taking a verse in the Quran without a context. Behave, you are not more worried about him than Hezbullah

#admin

Why didn't Hezbullah stop the war months ago before the war, if they know they know things will eventually end in a ceasefire❓

Many Lebanese and talk points claims that "If Hezbullah had accepted the Israeli offer to stop thr support front, the war would not have happened":

However reality is different. Hezbullah already agreed in September to the American-French initiative, which stipulated a ceasefire in both Lebanon and Gaza, and Hamas agrees.

But it was the Israelis who rejected it and expanded the war and killed Sayyed Hassan and laughed the pager attack and what followed.

Israel planned this war in Lebanon once the situation in Gaza was stable for them. Nothing Hezbullah could have done that would have stopped it, once they joined in 8-Oct.

Part 2. #admin

Adding to the above, Sayyed is Hezbullah. Hezbullah is Hezbullah.

You are a traitor if you would backstab or disagree with a single Hezbullah leadership decision if you are a Hezbullah member or a supporter of Hezbullah.

Who are you to put a phrase from Sayyed Hassan vs the position of Hezbullah. Do you think you care more about him, his legacy, his leadership than Hezbullah themselves?

Do you think you show care about him if you try to nullify and weaken the position of Hezbullah?

Sayyed Hassan was the leader of Hezbullah, but Sayyed Hassan was not Hezbullah in itself. Sayyed Hassan represented and headed Hezbullah which was a council of Shura who collectively decided on what to do and how to act and where to go and when to stop.

Sheikh Naim's leadership shouldn't be rivalled or weakened from within. His decisions are are valuable as Sayyed Hassan's and obeying them is more important than obey's Sayyed.

Do you know why? Because Sayyed had time to build his legacy and people saw him at a point of strength, unlike the situation now where things are shaken.

#admin

Some previous details to read well and understand. I'm explaining things as they are, how and what Hezbullah acted and why.

1- What were the Israeli goals in this war

2- Did Hezbullah lose deterrence because this war happened?

3- How can Hezbullah ensure this battle was not lost in favor of Israel

4- What were the conditions under which Hezbullah had to fight with

5- Is ending the warn abandoning Gaza and losing deterrence - is Hezbullah making a mistake?

6- what makes this ceasefire agreement worrisome for Lebanese sovereignty

📰 What is this war? Why it happened and why are we here?

Second Question: Did Israel's war on Lebanon and Hezbullah achieve the results it wanted? Was Hezbullah defeated❓

I explained in a previous set of posts what will constitute an Israeli win or loss, and what will constitute a Hezbullah win or loss.

What did Israel achieve in this war:
- Kill Hezbullah's historic leader
- Degrade Hezbullah's historic leadership
- Degrade Hezbullah's infrastructure
- Degrade Hezbullah's capabilities
- Degrade Hezbullah's manpower
- Neutralize Hezbullah's Galilee invasion plan (I hope they never do it, because it's not feasible)

In terms of degrading, it doesn't mean they degraded it to zero, but caused substantial losses that affected it.

What did Israel fail to do:
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's Control and Command, where brave men filled the void fast and took control of the leadership and commanded this war
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's ability to control its forces and the commination between different towns
- Failed to neutralize Hezbullah's rocket and ballistic units and they have been constant throughout the war, in both staging and firing
- Failed to collapse Hezbullah defense forces, which heroically defended the border villages despite 1 year of daily Israeli attacks that softened these targets
- Failed to force by miliary Hezbullah behind the Litani river
- Failed to bring back setters home deposite operating on the whole border
- Failed to reach in 2 months as deep as they did in 20 days in 2006 or in 5 days in 1982. If it was easy they would have been anywhere now.
- Failed to force Hezbullah's community to protest again it for this war and lose truste
- Failed to have other Lebanese join Israel in fighting Hezbullah
Etc......

To avoid the rest. Failed to defeat a resistance and opted to a ceasefire where local and foreign forces can do its job for it.

Why do I say so? Because I personally believe the Israeli army is one of the strongest and most capable in the world, and I'm confident Israel can set a goal to reach anywhere and they can reach. However is is a matter of how much costs are they willing to pay to reach that place.

So why will Israel and Netanyahu agree on a ceasefire when they are able? Because as much as they are able materialistically, the moment they lose the will to fight and they project the cost to have that "blue arrow" reach a location too costly and too harsh, they will stop. They fail.

Hezbullah's leadership agree on this understanding when they mention clearly, both Sayyed and Abdul Qader, that it was the loss of Israel's will/ability to fight is what brought in their defeat in 2006 and so on.

Was Hezbullah defeated?
Hezbullah as a resistance was affected by this war and paid a heavy price, but it was not defeated.

Let's be honest here. This isn't a cope like some clowns will claim. Defeat is clear. German's were defeated in WW2 because they lost their Reich and they collapsed into a different identity.

Saddam's regime was defeated because he seized to exist. The Soviet Union lost the cold war because it collapsed from within. The Western world lost their empires because countries were created. The U.S lost the war in Vietnam because the north won by surviving despite everything. Understand my logic here?

Ending the war now, with these vague conditions that will elaborate soon on, will be a return to the status quo.

Lebanese foes are stunned because Hezbullah didn't collapse. Israel didn't get rid of Hezbullah's rocket fire and brave soldiers. And Hezbullah has the knowledge to mass recruit again, rebuild, re-dig, re-arm, re-train.

I also know they will investigate. Learn from the mistakes, know what happened and become better. This is what they did in 2006, where they sat with people and fighters and asked them what they felt needed to be better and they build upon that.

If this war ends, Hezbullah will have to forge itself again much stronger and able. Now it's like a core of the strongest metal in the world too hot its soft, and needs a good smith to forge it into a sword that can cut through anything. #admin

"The enemy committed massacres, destroyed our countries, divided our nation, bet on some weak and cowards, and targeted leaders and heroes to tell us one word: "There is no point in resistance" but they failed."

- Martyr Sayyed Hashem Safi al-Din (may God be pleased with him)

And with these words that foreshadowed, Israel lost because it failed to conquer the people and force the resistance to surrender.

The mood in Israel today is clear, they are mad because they feel they didn't achieve what they expected to in Lebanon.

They will agree to a ceasefire 48 hours after Hezbullah made Israel from Metulla to Tel Aviv under fire.

If Lebanon showed weakness and was "an easy meal", Israel would not have agreed on a ceasefire. Justify it elsewise.

Last part of the thread below will talk about the ceasefire, what are its terms and will it stand? #admin

Final question: Is this ceasefire good for Lebanon. Did Hezbullah achieve any deterrence similar to the 2006 war❓

All the above details and reasoning justified the logic of this ceasefire and and highlighted some misconceptions for many then tackled what was achieved and what was lost in this battle where Israel was the aggressor and Hezbullah the defender.

Some points are clear and Hezbullah is unlikely to tackle them this clearly in terms of saying "we reached our peak" however their honesty is seen through their actions.

Before I continue, I'd like to ask those who never heard an airstrike, shot at, or injured or ever were part of a military to stfu and ahhhh to go show us what they can achieve better and risk their lives and their peace in life and involve themselves in the risks of war and resistance

Second and very importantly, it is important not to compare Hezbullah to Iraq's resistance or Yemen's Ansraullah. It's quite simple but people continue to compare apples to oranges......let's call it compare avocado oil with olive oil.

In brief, the difference stems from the heat caused to each during this support front. This is why I used the oil analogy on purpose. The direct burden faced by Lebanon in one day, surpasses the collective burdens faced by both Yemen and Iraq in a full year and this is an important factor that affects the decision making.

Had Iraq been under constant Israeli attacks, which so far it wasn't attacked once, and if Yemen is under constant attacks on its ports, airports, and so on.. things would be a little different. Even despite that, comparing Iraq to Yemen also is wrong. Each front has its own peculiarities and special conditions.

Now, what are the terms of this ceasefire:
The agreement will actually lead to an immediate ceasefire that can come into effect within hours on the border.

Tomorrow at 4 pm the Israeli cabinet will meet to discuss the details of the agreement and is expected to approve it during the discussion.

These are the main points of the agreement as we revealed on the weekend:

- The IDF will withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days
- The forces of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL will be deployed along all border crossings
- An international committee headed by the US will be established to enforce the agreement
- Israel and Lebanon will agree to hold negotiations on the border route

It's simple. It's like the war never happened and Hezbullah didn't conceed anything. Hezbullah isn't going to surrender its arms, no one is forcing it to dismantle itself. No one is forcing it to become solely a political party

And if there was condition to demand Hezbullah to move its heavy weapons north of the Litani? Well as the weapons entered in secret without anyone seeing them, Hezbullah can assume there is nothing to move. It's really all about deception and bluff.

What will happen is it'll become harder for Hezbullah to manage rebuilding in secret because the Lebanese army and the UN might become more proactive.

The threat also is tha Israel will get what is called a freedom of action mechanism:

If an "immediate threat" is identified - Israel has the freedom to act immediately, to attack and remove the threat. This sounds bad, but it is also about Lebanon. It's like self defense not freedom of operation in Lebanon. Assume Israel detects a rocket launcher being primed to fire at them.

The agreement also includes possibly a clause that if a non-immediate threat is detected (for example - they detect an attempt to dig a tunnel near the border) - Israel will alert the monitoring and enforcement mechanism led by the US.

The mechanism will be required to activate the Lebanese army and UNIFIL against the violation. If there is no enforcement, or if the threat becomes immediate - Israel will attack. I talked about this here, read it.

What is unfortunate, is that this ceasefire won't free Hezbullah fighters and martyr bodies who were captured in this war. This will cause issues eventually. There are about 7-8 prisoners and many bodies.

Continued below. #admin

Part 2

The last two terms are what would have happened after 2006 had there been no deterrence.

As for this 2 month war and ongoing, there doesn't seem to be yet any indications that Hezbullah was able to achieve sustainable progress to rebuild this deterrence for various factors.

However we can better judge this progress by how Israel will act in the weeks and months and years that will follow this ceasefire.

We all know well, that Hezbullah will grow again, will organize training camps, will dig tunnels, will snuggle weapons, will hand flags, will everything.

Will Israel attack Beirut? Will they attack this demonstration? Or will they be forced to look from the screen of their drone and their spies at a man or men they wanted to kill once and are unable to press a button to kill them now.

They will definitely not attack openly Beirut again, and will see Hezbullah again like bees building the nest.

This will erode like water erodes stone over time the freedom of operation of Israelis in Lebanon and rebuild deterrence. Deterrence will also be built slowly with each Hezbullah retaliation to Israeli violation of the ceasefire, because Hezbullah will not accept the terms of freedom of Israeli operations in Lebanon.

An attack on Hezbullah is an attack on Lebanon and to protect Lebanon you attack back. You get what I mean here

On the other side, Israel retreating in 60 days is not far from the time they took to retreat in 2006. War ended in July and they completed withdrawal in Oct 2006.

The issue is, what do they expect Lebanon and the UN to do for them against Hezbullah to feel satisfied in these two months and withdraw? Will they backstab and stay because they were satisfied by the Lebanese army doing their job?

Regardless. Expected more friction between "locals" and the UN. Unfortunately I don't feel optimistic that peace will be long like after 2006 even if this ceasefire lasts. Idk we'll have to wait for some time to read the situation better.

I'm worried particularly about the prisoners, because this ceasefire doesn't free them.

Finally, if this ceasefire collapses or not, as much as it will help the IDF to refresh and help lower the strain on its reserve soldiers, it'll substantially help Hezbullah's fighters and commanders to rest & meet their families, regroup, re-arm and send reinforcement.I hope they will be careful and secretive.

There is one last part, and it's about your role as civilians during the ceasefire and in the future. #admin

Finally, you should stay silent...shhhh Shhh, but about what❓

You as a Lebanese Shia living in Beirut, south, Beqaa and Baalbek will live among the resistance which is from you and for you, and for that you have to protect it like it protects you

How? It's quite simple. Don't tell your friends in real life or over the phone stories about members of Hezbullah you heard nor tell them about what you saw nor mention anything you know.

Don't tell them stories about this war nor ask. Yes. Don't ask nor learn what you shouldn't know about. Help them stay safe by not knowing what you could mistakenly reveal and help Israel.

Any information as small as you think, can build up to great breaches. I don't know what else to elaborate here

As for Hezbullah, I hope and I'm sure inshallah they will take the adequate measures to combat information leaks and protect themselves. I hope they start by hiding faces in funerals and tightening security and combating phone usage in various places. Educating the fighters on risks and teaching them how to act on these topics will help blind Israel on mang things. #admin

With all the risks of the ceasefire fire and the refreshment time for the IDF in winter that could have been an advantage for the defender Hezbullah, below is the insight on how Israelis are talking and acting about this ceasefire.

These will give you a good understanding of the situation.

All the below is quoted from Israeli media:

- Netanyahu in a marathon of phone calls to public figures and opinion leaders in order to convince of the necessity of signing the agreement with Hezbullah

- Yair Golan at his faction's meeting:
"Netanyahu will be a prisoner in orange who will spend his days in prison reflecting on the damage he inflicted on us"

- Head of the Metula Council, David Azoulai Legia Peleg - calls on the residents not to return and find a new home in the state of Tel Aviv

- Senior Israeli officials: after the agreement - there will be no official call for residents to return to their homes (so the war goal was not achieved and if the war starts again they will be worried about having to evacuate them again)

- Classes in all educational institutions in Acre and Haifa will not take place tomorrow. No educational activity will take place in Ma'alot Tarshikha tomorrow either. (Hezbullah is still able to exert fear in Israel)

- Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman in an interview with Gideon Oko: There is an important operational achievement that was not achieved in the war, and it is critical [we failed]

- Kiryat Shmona Mayor: The evacuation plan carried out by the Israeli government since the outbreak of the war on Lebanon is a failure.

Kiryat Shmona Mayor: Members of the government who support reaching a settlement with Lebanon should move and live in Kiryat Shmona.

- Channel 12: There will be no buffer zone in southern Lebanon and the residents of the south will return to all Lebanese villages, which worries the residents of the north

- Shlomi Council Chairman: We will not extend a helping hand to the government and we will not return to our homes.

- Israeli calls for a demonstration tomorrow on Begin Street in Tel Aviv, to reject the agreement intended to be signed with Lebanon, describing it as “killing the settlers of the north, and crossing a red line by the Netanyahu government, which chose to ignore the heavy price paid by hundreds of thousands of evacuated settlers and soldiers.”

If a ceasefire goes through, it is important to not over rejoice or celebrate, because as good as it is to end this war, we have not forget that we have martyrs in the fields we have to retrieve and bury, we have fighters who are still fighting for months at the very edge of the border, we have grieving families that we have to comfort, we have injured we have to take care of and we have people and displacement individuals we should support.

And we have a leader who we didn't make a funeral for yet and cry and grief adequately for.

For that, we have to humble the actions based on the reality.

My brain melted. No more writing today.

Back to posts and copy pasting with some proofreading haha

⭕️ The footage released by Hezbullah targeting a Israeli robot-controlled M113 vehicle is between Tayr Harfa and Shamaa.

📍It was geolocated by Happygibbon on X at 33.150491201794246, 35.20391907218044

Remember Dier Mimas town that rejected Hezbullah and allowed the Israeli army to enter the town?

Footage was leaked of Israeli soldiers inside the church of Dier Mimas, desecrating it, dancing, cursing Jesus and toying with the bible and crosses.

🇱🇧 Border town of Yarin, South Lebanon |

Israeli soldiers turned Yarin Secondary School into a military base during their invasion into the town. They parked their vehicles and played with the children's desks and books.

Yarine is a Lebanese sunni town, with only a few Christian and Shia families.

📸 Aftermath of their attack on the local Sunni mosque in Yarine town, which they demolished.

Highlighting sect to show that what they destroyed wasn't affiliated with Hezbullah and that they attacked Christians and Sunni towns even when they weren't part of the war.

Unlike Rmeich, other Christian and Sunni towns were all attacked by the Jews and their places of worship and houses all targeted.

In all of these non-Shia towns, Hezbullah didn't fight the IDF.