🇱🇧l🇮🇱 According to various news published by the Lebanese agency, the Israeli army committed 14 violations of the ceasefire on Friday, bringing the total number of violations since the agreement came into effect to 155.

The violations, according to the same source, were concentrated in the capital Beirut and its southern suburbs, the districts of Bint Jbeil, Marjeyoun, Hasbaya, and Nabatieh in the Nabatieh Governorate (south), the Tyre District in the South Governorate, and the Akkar District in the Akkar Governorate (north).

The Israeli violations varied between artillery, firing machine guns, incursions, house bombings, airstrikes by warplanes and drones, and drone flights.

📰 Another Mahan Air A340 (EP-MMT) from Tehran too Khmeimim AB, Latakia, Syria

Russia struck a deal with the rebels to leave the base untouched for now, and allow the Russians and Iranians to operate at ease to evacuate what they need to.

🇸🇾🇷🇺📉❗️ — The flag of the Arab Republic of Syria has been removed from the Syrian embassy in Moscow, Capital of Russian Federation

✍ Some fast Questions and answers, hoping they help the pro-resistance fellow for more insight on the present or the future.

(You are usually my target audience and why I do these explanations)

There is no order of importance for these questions:

❓Will Israel's new front in Syria help the situation in Lebanon by diverting some attention

At face value yes, this would be helpful to ensure that those 60 days will pass and the IDF to largely disengage. They have a new front tbry need to gather intel about and prepare for the worst case scenario. Although, Jewlani is unlikely to fight the Israelis nor is he expected at any present time to showcase himself as their enemy.

However the IDF understands that the fall of Syria has cut of Hezbullah from Iran, and what they damaged cannot be easily replaced. So what now?

Although it is unlikely they plan to reignite the war for the sake of further damage in Lebanon, they remains a slim possiblity. The calm is in their favor.

Hezbullah reads the situation well, and will not give Israel any pretext to such action. Yet, it is crucial for the Lebanese government to exert pressure on the US to keep Israel in line.

❓Will the fall of Assad play in favor of the Lebanese parties such as LF, PSP, and so on?

At face value you'd think yes, but in reality no. Ever since Bachar disengaged in 2005, there hasn't been a real influence on the situation in Lebanon nor Syrian agenda

The ones that Damascus used to control as pawns, are the ones that ended up backstabbing it and becoming the opposition. Hezbullah was always independent, Amal wasn't good friends with Syria, and FPM are in decline for failing to catch up.

What his fall represents, is rallying catalyst for their supporters and a drive towards their grander goals in Lebanon because they see themselves as victors. There is a lot of hypocrisy here about how they are acting, but this is a historic study.

So with no affect on Lebanon in terms of political power projection, these parties might try to maximize their aims in light of Hezbullah's internal weakening because of the war. However it is unlikely they will be successful in forcing the party out of the upcoming government or elect Samir Gaegae for example.

Sheikh Naim is a veteran in Lebanese politics. He used to manage the file for Sayyed Hassan.

❓ Where is Bachar? Why did he do this?

It's too early to judge why Bachar just decided to abandon Syria after 13 years and call it a day.

The man refused all Western and Arab bribes to stay in power back in 2012 and fought against all threats, to suddenly pack and leave?

He didn't address the Syrians, he didn't announce the reasons, he abandoned everyone who ever saw him a leader and didn't give them a chance to understand the situation. He didn't give the orders to the army to fight until allies can arrive to help. He surrendered Syria without a fight.

There is no deal he can accept that was worth it, even safety wise, he was safe. One thing is, I'm glad he decided to abandon it without a fight than fight and then leave.

Bachar's deals with the Arab and West didn't save him, even cozing up to Saudi Arabia and UAE. On 10/2023 he forced Ansarallah to abandon their embassy in Syria and hand it to Saudi Arabia. There are a lot of question.

Bachar built a castle of sand, and allowed Syria's enemies to crumble it with a bucket of water. Regardless, Bachar was unable to rule any longer, it was long overdue for him to hand the leadership for other national Syrian figures and a build a country that didn't need one man to decide its fate.

(To be continued) #admin

❓What is the future of relationship between Lebanon and Syria

I mentioned this in brief in my long summary of the situation, and the thing is, if Jawlani is serious about building a state and abandon his "so-called past" to become like that prostitute who is ready to settle and marry a white-collar man, he can achieve stability for both Syria and Lebanon.

Because frankly, neither Turkey who Syria will become very dependant on, nor Iraq and Jordan want additional instability because of Syria. And the new Syrian state will be isolated with no old allies, no Iranian fuel, the Kurdish dilemma and so on. They need to rebuild, they need money, they need trade, etc..

It would be wise of them to also avoid any terrorist activities in Lebanon and against Hezbullah, and to build a new relationship based on the new reality. Jewlani is not new to politics nor foreign to abandoning his old ideologies.

Lebanon needs Syria to purchase some produce, and need Syria to export products to Jordan and Iraq.

I do believe he will mimic Taliban's good neighbor relationship, simply to avoid any problems that could affect his new rule. This will become clear if he allows the Russian and Iranian embassies to stay.

Let's be honest here, Syria fell and its allies didn't fight on its behalf because Syria abandoned the war and decided to surrender. They not trying to revive a dead body against its will and conceding the new rule will be seen positively.

Finally, in terms of relationship between the new Syrian state and Hezbullah, the war they fought a decade ago was for reasons that no longer are today and the situation is completely different.

While Hezbullah was stable in its beliefs and ideology, the rebels have changed faces and ideologies countless times, to where they are today.

Do they wish to cooperate on friendly bases, Hezbullah will cooperate. Do they wish to become a threat and aggress on Lebanon, Hezbullah will fight them if they cross into Lebanon.

The war with the Syrian rebels is a war between Muslims, where one become the aggressor and committed crimes. The war was just, and that war was not one to end the other. It is not on the same bases of the war against the Jews.

Syrians are the ones who will decide if they stay arrogant or extend a hand

Quran describes this well:
وَإِن طَائِفَتَانِ مِنَ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ اقْتَتَلُوا فَأَصْلِحُوا بَيْنَهُمَا ۖ فَإِن بَغَتْ إِحْدَاهُمَا عَلَى الْأُخْرَىٰ فَقَاتِلُوا الَّتِي تَبْغِي حَتَّىٰ تَفِيءَ إِلَىٰ أَمْرِ اللَّهِ ۚ فَإِن فَاءَتْ فَأَصْلِحُوا بَيْنَهُمَا بِالْعَدْلِ وَأَقْسِطُوا ۖ إِنَّ اللَّهَ يُحِبُّ الْمُقْسِطِينَ (9) إِنَّمَا الْمُؤْمِنُونَ إِخْوَةٌ فَأَصْلِحُوا بَيْنَ أَخَوَيْكُمْ ۚ وَاتَّقُوا اللَّهَ لَعَلَّكُمْ تُرْحَمُونَ (10)

❓Did Iran abandon Syria

No, no, and no. When people face such dramatic changes in events, they try to pin the failure on the others in order to justify and explain the situation to become at ease.

Iran didn't abandon Syria, nor did it abandon Gaza nor Lebanon. Who wants the Iranians to fight and die for his own causes, is not worth fighting for. You do not fight Iran's wars for Iran to fight alongside you.

Iran supports Gaza cause, Iran supports Lebanon's resistance, Iran supports Syria' then legitimate government.

I won't elaborate on this longer, it should be clear by now. As for True Promise 3, I mentioned it a few weeks ago and I'm glad they abstained.

Iran's survival and integrity in these times, are more important than retaliating and legitimizing a new widespread Israeli attack on Iran that can greatly affect it.

Iran is the spine of this nation, and it's safety and integrity is what will allow the people of Gaza and Lebanon and everywhere who want to stand on the right side of history to have someone to help him.

Trump's presidency and the Netanyahu's rolling record of achievements will only made them more bold in attacking Iran directly. Let Promise 3 happen when it needs to happen.

Finally, for Syrians who want to say their allies abandoned you, you are shortsighted. It was your leadership who decided to surrendered and give up, after failing to build a state after the war

I have no further questions on mind now to talk about, if I do I'll continue this format.

But for Lebanese, especially Shia, you have a great responsibility

- الله الله في نظم امركم
- الوحدة و التعاضض دعما للمحتاج بالبيئة
- التكاتف و دعم المقاومة الإسلامية وقراراتها. القيادة كانت شورى و الشورى قائمة
- حفظ دماء و مسيرة السيد بدعم قيادة الشيخ نعيم، الورع التقي المجاهد و المسدد بإذن الله
- حفظ الأمانة، حفظ المقاومة و كتم السر و محاربة الفساد
- الصبر و البصيرة و تطبيق تعليم سنن الله، من مفهوم نصر بدر لهزيمة احد ليوم السقيفة لكربلاء حتى الظهور
- اليقين بالله ووعده

السيد مرة قال، الله لا يعطي النصر لخليط. فلنكن مخلصين لله و رسوله و أولي الامر

السوريين وهم طالعين من بيت بشار

Literally saw a woman stealing plates from the Syrian presidential Palace and another stealing pants and shirts from Maher's office. They are looting everything.

حدا عرف مين هني شهداء بيت ليف مبارح؟

ليوم دبين رجال و مرأة

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 The IDF falsely claims to have attacked Hezbullah, and arrogantly claim they are operating in terms of the ceasefire.

Their attack today on Dibeen town murdered one man and one woman, and injured another woman.

Yesterday attack on Bet leaf murdered a family, including a woman and children

📰 The attack in Dibbine killed one woman and injured another. A man was also killed from the same house/family.

Women were not Hezullah fighters and obviously weren't what the IDF claimed about them attacking the jews in the last months.

Ffs this is clear violation of any ceasefire and never constitutes self-defense or foiling any attack. This is targeted assassination and aggression.

Today two deaths and yesterday six.

🇮🇷| Iranian FM Aragchi: Iran will continue support the resistance & Hezbollah

We’ve received guarantees in Syria that the embassy & consulate of Iran will be protected, and more importantly the shrines of Lady Sayyede Zainab & Hazrat Ruqyah will be protected & respected.

The attack on the embassy this morning was not done by the actual groups but by bystanders for looting purposes.

Iran’s position is to support the wishes of the Syrian people, but it is not easy to reach an agreement between all the different groups.

The resistance may have setbacks or undergo changes, like losing dear figures in Lebanon for example, but resistance continues.

@FotrosResistance

🇺🇸l🇮🇱 Today, the U.S announced attacking 75 locations in Syria allegedly targeting ISIS, who they surprisingly only found about today.

Israel attacked 100-150 times today only around Syria, degrading the states decaying AD systems and manufacturing.

🇮🇱 By occupying Mount Hermon and destroying strategic capabilities in Syria, Israel is signaling: we will never return to the containment and absorption of 6-October

❗️Since the ceasefire started in Lebanon, 7 Lebanese have been kidnapped by the Israeli army according to their media.

Today 2 civilians are confirmed. The other 5 are unknown, could be fighters that stayed behind and captured trying to leave. No details at all.

The IDF isn't transparent about these events, nor is it about the names of the fighters it captured during the war nor about the fate of the bodies. We know there is 1 (houla)+3 (faces blurred) +3 (aita)+amhaz.

Hezbullah is unable to conclude fates before a full Israeli withdrawal form the border villages and search for bodies.

The hope is, they are freed in a deal between Hamas and Israel. That's currently the only hope.

I'll elaborate thoroughly later on, but in brief:

Hezbullah will endure these 60 days to not give Israel any pretext to stay longer, claiming the threat was still there so deal failed. If Jews stay, Israel will be considered an occupation force and will be burdened both locally and internationally, legitimizing Hezbullah.

Hezbullah will give the Lebanese state and army the full task of maintaining peace and security in south Lebanon, obeying the ceasefire and building up its argument and rhetoric

Hezbullah needs to ensure that the war ends, because neither it nor Lebanon can afford a second wave now under these conditions. Hezbullah inshallah is recovering well, but we all know a war won't be the best outcome

So far Israel didn't hint about staying longer in Lebanon but neither did it try to start returning the settlers north. Jews are expected to leave by the end of January.

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 Israeli drone activity is reported in Nabatieh and Tyre governorates, violating the ceasefire and in grave aggression to Lebanon's sovereignty

No comments on the matter by the Lebanese army, unlike the IDF who keeps the settlers updated on hourly basis.

Here please understand that the situation is different from Gaza and Syria

Gaza is not a state that is recognized in the world, and Syria is a failed state that is now under a revolutionary transitional period and the long war made foreign powers treat it with no respect.

In other words, there is a reason why Netanyahu visited Gaza but didn't cross into Lebanon and won't into Syria. He is bound by some laws that he doesn't want to be seen stepping over.

In Lebanon, the state is friendly to the West and the U.S has allies (or pawns) in Lebanon. So this could all factor with a different approach and they could indeed withdraw.

But again, with Israel there is no constant, and their evil transcends norms. So well have to wait and see. It should be clear by mid-Jan-25

🗣 Gaegae in a new attack on Hezbullah and the discussion of a defense strategy:

"Some smart people are bringing up the "defensive strategy" again, but it's high overdue and not its time"

🗣 Kataeb party's Nadem Gemayel:

"Just as his big brother to Hezbullah in Damascus fell, they will reach a day when they also surrender weapons because they has no other choice."

🗣 Trying to project the events in Syria is a total collapse to Hezbullah and is now weak and vulnerable, MP Camille Chamoun:

"We will not prosecute anyone who was aligned with the Syrian regime. The important thing is that we rebuild the country and see how to return Lebanon to the Switzerland of the East, and this is a golden goal."