A long thread in a few. Read and comment.
It isn't everything but a good starter
It isn't everything but a good starter
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There is a lot anyone can discuss, therorize, or lie about. However, there is only one certainty: there are no certainties in this world. This is no different from what people from military backgrounds claim: No matter how you plan for war, the chaos of the war will nullify all your plans.
But this is only true for those militaries that fail to plan properly or for those who are driven to their own defeat when destroyed from within.
We can exclude the certainty of God's existence and God's promise that in the end, the honest good moral people will triumph. But until then, we do our best and disregard the results because as his eminence once said: Our duty is to work patiently and tirelessly for the goal and not worry about the results, as however things end up, the world is governed by He—for us the end is either one of these: sweet victory or sweet martyrdom.
Despite this noble belief, and despite his eminence's success in bringing about the rise of the Shia in Lebanon from the oppressed to a force to be reckoned with in the whole world, things have changed. The tides have washed away a lot of the success that was accomplished. However, to be fair, this was not due to the failure of his eminence or the great men under his leadership, but rather certain gaps from which the consequence of the current state of events came to be.
The thing that is most painful is not his death, not the death of the leadership that created the golden era; an era of unpreceded peace and deterrence which is unrivaled for centuries in terms of inferior weapons and numbers against a nuclear state supported by a nuclear empire. Rather, it is the collapse of the entirety of what they built before they could prove its ultimate worth.
For simplicity's sake, they did not get the opportunity to prove to us the genius behind the non-state unconventional strength they created and prepared for the 3rd war with Israel. This was the last time this doctrine was ever going to be used in Lebanon, given the circumstances, and it was the time for it to change the course of this 70+ year old conflict, and become the first crack in the walls of the Jewish Kingdom. But with the sabotage that happened, followed by the intelligence-based air campaign that not only debunked decades of theories about the limitation of what an air force could achieve, but successfully decapitated Hezbollah's leadership and took away all the tools (and men) it had prepared for this day.
I have already discussed this countless times, and elaborated on the conditions under which the war was fought. I explained how it ended positively, but the lack of deterrence and the poor results in harming Israel facilitated the path to our current state of affairs, which only ever degraded further due to the fall of Syria.
I also discussed the future and what to expect, and how hard it is to rebuild both our homes and the resistance. But I will do that again today, post-Israeli war on Iran, with the unfortunate failure of the Axis of Resistance to achieve what it planned for and what it prepared itself to do for years yet again.
The issue here is that you can not pinpoint a single shortcoming to claim that this project had these weak points and they led to the collapse we have now. We now have a weakened Iran, an oppressed Hezbullah, a decimated Gaza (Hamas, PIJ), and a Syria that no longer has our backs. In the case of Iran, I would say that the number #1 cause of the poor military achievement in the last war was the military doctrine that revolved around a single method of offense, which was known to everyone, and which was the main focus of every single decision taken by their enemies in the past two decades in their efforts to nullify it.
They put all their eggs in one basket, and Israel punched a hole in that basket, and so Iran lost the effectiveness of its only tool of offense.
But this is only true for those militaries that fail to plan properly or for those who are driven to their own defeat when destroyed from within.
We can exclude the certainty of God's existence and God's promise that in the end, the honest good moral people will triumph. But until then, we do our best and disregard the results because as his eminence once said: Our duty is to work patiently and tirelessly for the goal and not worry about the results, as however things end up, the world is governed by He—for us the end is either one of these: sweet victory or sweet martyrdom.
Despite this noble belief, and despite his eminence's success in bringing about the rise of the Shia in Lebanon from the oppressed to a force to be reckoned with in the whole world, things have changed. The tides have washed away a lot of the success that was accomplished. However, to be fair, this was not due to the failure of his eminence or the great men under his leadership, but rather certain gaps from which the consequence of the current state of events came to be.
The thing that is most painful is not his death, not the death of the leadership that created the golden era; an era of unpreceded peace and deterrence which is unrivaled for centuries in terms of inferior weapons and numbers against a nuclear state supported by a nuclear empire. Rather, it is the collapse of the entirety of what they built before they could prove its ultimate worth.
For simplicity's sake, they did not get the opportunity to prove to us the genius behind the non-state unconventional strength they created and prepared for the 3rd war with Israel. This was the last time this doctrine was ever going to be used in Lebanon, given the circumstances, and it was the time for it to change the course of this 70+ year old conflict, and become the first crack in the walls of the Jewish Kingdom. But with the sabotage that happened, followed by the intelligence-based air campaign that not only debunked decades of theories about the limitation of what an air force could achieve, but successfully decapitated Hezbollah's leadership and took away all the tools (and men) it had prepared for this day.
I have already discussed this countless times, and elaborated on the conditions under which the war was fought. I explained how it ended positively, but the lack of deterrence and the poor results in harming Israel facilitated the path to our current state of affairs, which only ever degraded further due to the fall of Syria.
I also discussed the future and what to expect, and how hard it is to rebuild both our homes and the resistance. But I will do that again today, post-Israeli war on Iran, with the unfortunate failure of the Axis of Resistance to achieve what it planned for and what it prepared itself to do for years yet again.
The issue here is that you can not pinpoint a single shortcoming to claim that this project had these weak points and they led to the collapse we have now. We now have a weakened Iran, an oppressed Hezbullah, a decimated Gaza (Hamas, PIJ), and a Syria that no longer has our backs. In the case of Iran, I would say that the number #1 cause of the poor military achievement in the last war was the military doctrine that revolved around a single method of offense, which was known to everyone, and which was the main focus of every single decision taken by their enemies in the past two decades in their efforts to nullify it.
They put all their eggs in one basket, and Israel punched a hole in that basket, and so Iran lost the effectiveness of its only tool of offense.
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Why do I say this? Simply because what Iran achieved in those 12 days by hitting settler and civilian assets (mostly) was what Hezbullah themselves had planned as the best-case scenario of the missile capability which they created. That was Hezbullah's high bar which the IDF eliminated in September 2024, and due to that reality, Hezbullah only achieved what they did in 2006 in that domain with the Iron dome today nullifying even more of that effort.
From a military perspective, this is the reality, because they were not able to harm the IDF in a way that would affect its military campaign in terms of destroyed assets to soldier casualties. Iran only killed an Israeli soldier during the 12 day war, and he was at home. Hezbullah, on the other hand, was able to kill more soldiers and even score some strategic hits, including that 1 billion dollar balloon and a very expensive radar system that the IDF until this day has kept unannounced.
This is not to highlight anything, as Hezbullah and Iran fight as one and are brothers. Iran simply ended the war too prematurely, but no one can blame it, Israel and the U.S. put Tehran under too much pressure; everyone was worried it was the end. And this is the issue: how we reached a situation where Hezbullah and Iran were at one moment so fragile they almost collapsed. A moment which was not only unimaginable, but should never have happened in the first place. It made it so the efforts in the past decades felt as if they'd went down the drain.
Because of this, a review should be done to assess the gaps which caused this catastrophe. We should be thankful that despite today's challenges, we got another day to re-attempt it. I do not think Hezbullah and Iran miscalculated, but I do think Israel read its enemies better and prepared a more efficient tool to cater to its needs on the battlefield. The financial and technological advantage for Israel is clear, but it was not the reason we failed. Israel built its new war machine on the lessons learned from past wars, whereas Hezbullah and Iran assumed the same solutions would work against an enemy that learns from every mishap.
Sometimes, the best offensive weapon is a good defense.
2006 told Israel they need to fix their infantry tactics, protect their tanks, eliminate local commanders, eliminate leadership, and protect their navy, and this is what they did. The infantry only attacked when an area was cleared and targeted, no town was rushed and the progress was slow, tanks were equipped with the trophy system, Hezbollah's engineering units were hunted, the navy did not come close to the Lebanese shores, helicopters were not used, and drones were pioneers in their work. Again, Hezbullah fought under very harsh conditions and was fighting while exposed, yet achieved marvelous results in defense thanks to the dedication and scarifies of its fighters. Israel did not reach Tyre and Beirut because of that. Else, nothing was going to stop the blue arrow from reaching any point it desired.
The Gulf War told Israel about the need to counter the ballistic threat, and this is what they did. Iran's amazing and accurate ballistic system faced a very strong defense and was the only tool of offense against Israel. With the attacks on the bases, the hunting of TELs by Israeli drones, and the murder of the IRGC missile command, the IDF weakened the tools Iran had that were capable of dealing with Israeli arrogance and military might.
But here I am saying.... might have, could have, should have...and this tells us something: the need to rethink the whole doctrine and adapt it to this new type of warfare. I once talked about the change in the Israeli war doctrine, but that was a result of 7-October, and it was not the reason behind the tactical success Israel has achieved.
From a military perspective, this is the reality, because they were not able to harm the IDF in a way that would affect its military campaign in terms of destroyed assets to soldier casualties. Iran only killed an Israeli soldier during the 12 day war, and he was at home. Hezbullah, on the other hand, was able to kill more soldiers and even score some strategic hits, including that 1 billion dollar balloon and a very expensive radar system that the IDF until this day has kept unannounced.
This is not to highlight anything, as Hezbullah and Iran fight as one and are brothers. Iran simply ended the war too prematurely, but no one can blame it, Israel and the U.S. put Tehran under too much pressure; everyone was worried it was the end. And this is the issue: how we reached a situation where Hezbullah and Iran were at one moment so fragile they almost collapsed. A moment which was not only unimaginable, but should never have happened in the first place. It made it so the efforts in the past decades felt as if they'd went down the drain.
Because of this, a review should be done to assess the gaps which caused this catastrophe. We should be thankful that despite today's challenges, we got another day to re-attempt it. I do not think Hezbullah and Iran miscalculated, but I do think Israel read its enemies better and prepared a more efficient tool to cater to its needs on the battlefield. The financial and technological advantage for Israel is clear, but it was not the reason we failed. Israel built its new war machine on the lessons learned from past wars, whereas Hezbullah and Iran assumed the same solutions would work against an enemy that learns from every mishap.
Sometimes, the best offensive weapon is a good defense.
2006 told Israel they need to fix their infantry tactics, protect their tanks, eliminate local commanders, eliminate leadership, and protect their navy, and this is what they did. The infantry only attacked when an area was cleared and targeted, no town was rushed and the progress was slow, tanks were equipped with the trophy system, Hezbollah's engineering units were hunted, the navy did not come close to the Lebanese shores, helicopters were not used, and drones were pioneers in their work. Again, Hezbullah fought under very harsh conditions and was fighting while exposed, yet achieved marvelous results in defense thanks to the dedication and scarifies of its fighters. Israel did not reach Tyre and Beirut because of that. Else, nothing was going to stop the blue arrow from reaching any point it desired.
The Gulf War told Israel about the need to counter the ballistic threat, and this is what they did. Iran's amazing and accurate ballistic system faced a very strong defense and was the only tool of offense against Israel. With the attacks on the bases, the hunting of TELs by Israeli drones, and the murder of the IRGC missile command, the IDF weakened the tools Iran had that were capable of dealing with Israeli arrogance and military might.
But here I am saying.... might have, could have, should have...and this tells us something: the need to rethink the whole doctrine and adapt it to this new type of warfare. I once talked about the change in the Israeli war doctrine, but that was a result of 7-October, and it was not the reason behind the tactical success Israel has achieved.
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There were a lot of cases in the support front era which screamed "there is a lack of triumph" there is a lack of توÙيق . During that whole period there was something very fishy that i felt and talked about yet for some reason it was not treated and was either way very late to. The dust of the Israeli silence hid this. I only knew for sure it was too late, when the IDF revealed the successful raids into Lebanon during those months before the start of the ground invasion. This is when i knew we were not well nor ready.
See, I say Hezbullah achieved some success in this war by ensuring its survival and having Israel accept a ceasefire agreement that mimics that of 2006. However the implementation failed and degraded that success. Israel wanted to end the Hezbullah threat and did so largely in south of the Litani river, however Hezbullah is alive and they can rebuild and regain strength and again form a threat. This is where Syria's fall and the new Israeli doctrine plays a role in fighting this emergence.
See, i say Iran achieved some success by destroying Israeli building and have ensured its survival and internal stability in the light of such drastic events. However it needs to rebalance its efforts again to identify the gaps, learn, and do better. What the IDF achieved in Iran was unpreceded and very painful.
Despite that, Iran's situation continues to be better than Hezbullah's as it is the state and not a non-state actor in a hostile country. Today, Hezbullah has no other ally than the Shia Amal movement, and all its old allies are calling for its disarming. The Lebanese state leadership is working with the US to disarm Hezbullah and make it illegal. Hezbullah's community is growing more fragile due Hezbullah's financial and military weakening, in light of the absence of rebuilding and the loss of deterrence. The Shia community is growing more tired and more plagued with individualism. These are grave challenges, with no funds to help, no border access to get weapons, no safety to train new recruits, and no stability to navigate the internal pressure from the Lebanese political foes.
But personally, I'm very comfortable with the leadership of Sheikh Naim Qassem who has proved his leadership skills by navigating the harshest war in Hezbullah's history and then this very harsh era of oppression. He is brave, smart, calm during a storm and only people's faith in him will allow Hezbullah to regain its initiative. I personally like him over something he did, that showed how selfless he is. We all know there are no wordly personal benefits of leading Hezbullah and you will not only face a harsh life, you will most likely be killed for it. However, he took this responsibility but what set him apart, that he did not claim he is the heir to Sayyed Nasrallah and announced it publicly. He repeated it several times that Sayyed Hassan has nourished the growth of Sayyed Hashem for this role and personally groomed him for it. That Sayyed Hashem was Sayyed Hassan's successor and even though his unannounced leadership was only few days, he was Hezbullah's third secretary general. Sheikh Naim did not hide that, he amplified it and made it well known and made sure Hezbullah gives Sayyed Hashem the mentions he deserve.
What Hezbullah needs today is time and currently Aoun and Nawaf are putting Hezbullah under a lot of pressure that are more critical than the daily Israeli attacks. Those attacks are a blessing as much as they are a curse, with almost one year in, they are the single most important driver for Hezbullah to become better and close the gaps that led it its past failures. The changes and the rebuilding that will happen under such pressure, will ensure a war will be fought without any further surprises and a better well hidden Hezbullah whose leadership is entirely safe.
See, I say Hezbullah achieved some success in this war by ensuring its survival and having Israel accept a ceasefire agreement that mimics that of 2006. However the implementation failed and degraded that success. Israel wanted to end the Hezbullah threat and did so largely in south of the Litani river, however Hezbullah is alive and they can rebuild and regain strength and again form a threat. This is where Syria's fall and the new Israeli doctrine plays a role in fighting this emergence.
See, i say Iran achieved some success by destroying Israeli building and have ensured its survival and internal stability in the light of such drastic events. However it needs to rebalance its efforts again to identify the gaps, learn, and do better. What the IDF achieved in Iran was unpreceded and very painful.
Despite that, Iran's situation continues to be better than Hezbullah's as it is the state and not a non-state actor in a hostile country. Today, Hezbullah has no other ally than the Shia Amal movement, and all its old allies are calling for its disarming. The Lebanese state leadership is working with the US to disarm Hezbullah and make it illegal. Hezbullah's community is growing more fragile due Hezbullah's financial and military weakening, in light of the absence of rebuilding and the loss of deterrence. The Shia community is growing more tired and more plagued with individualism. These are grave challenges, with no funds to help, no border access to get weapons, no safety to train new recruits, and no stability to navigate the internal pressure from the Lebanese political foes.
But personally, I'm very comfortable with the leadership of Sheikh Naim Qassem who has proved his leadership skills by navigating the harshest war in Hezbullah's history and then this very harsh era of oppression. He is brave, smart, calm during a storm and only people's faith in him will allow Hezbullah to regain its initiative. I personally like him over something he did, that showed how selfless he is. We all know there are no wordly personal benefits of leading Hezbullah and you will not only face a harsh life, you will most likely be killed for it. However, he took this responsibility but what set him apart, that he did not claim he is the heir to Sayyed Nasrallah and announced it publicly. He repeated it several times that Sayyed Hassan has nourished the growth of Sayyed Hashem for this role and personally groomed him for it. That Sayyed Hashem was Sayyed Hassan's successor and even though his unannounced leadership was only few days, he was Hezbullah's third secretary general. Sheikh Naim did not hide that, he amplified it and made it well known and made sure Hezbullah gives Sayyed Hashem the mentions he deserve.
What Hezbullah needs today is time and currently Aoun and Nawaf are putting Hezbullah under a lot of pressure that are more critical than the daily Israeli attacks. Those attacks are a blessing as much as they are a curse, with almost one year in, they are the single most important driver for Hezbullah to become better and close the gaps that led it its past failures. The changes and the rebuilding that will happen under such pressure, will ensure a war will be fought without any further surprises and a better well hidden Hezbullah whose leadership is entirely safe.
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On the contrary, Aoun's and Nawaf's actions are more critical because any internal disintegration of Lebanese security will invite a permanent Israeli occupation in south Lebanon and Beqaa and drawn Lebanon in a decade long instability and conflict. Aoun and Nawaf are very vocal about wanting to disarm Hezbullah and they have the power to enforce this through a government decree signed by the president to demand the Lebanese army to attack Hezbullah. However it still seems they are avoiding this option and want Hezbullah to take the same initiative it took in south of the Litani river in the north of it.
But the reality, Hezbullah is bound by 1701 and the new ceasefire agreement in the south only and this is what the Lebanese state is not building on. Aoun and Nawaf can capitalize on this and say Lebanon already signed a deal that the U.S sponsored and that stipulated a full withdrawal and the prisoners were already promised to be released if Israel is allowed to stay for two extra months. However Aoun and Nawaf do no care, and they share the same U.S, Israeli, Arab goal of full disarming Hezbullah and ending its military branch.
Else, they could have used this existing deal and rallied behind the world's newly emerging stance against Israel and asked the EU and so on for help. Yet, they did not care about submitting one formal complaint to the UN, while Israel? already filed about 1,500 complaints against Lebanon since December 2024.
Therefore, overcoming the current internal issues will be more important than overcoming Israel for now. Nawaf's government ends next year, and to weaken Aoun find an PM who will not fully agree with the current trajectory of events. The Shia alone cannot do so, and a PM can be chosen without them, so itll depend if some Christian, Sunnis, and Druze decide to grow some balls.
As for Israel, Hezbullah needs a new doctrine that is focused on defense and dealing more pain to the IDF through that. As it stands, the IDF was able to accumulate strength in both the defense and offense and under current circumstance Hezbullah as a non-state actor will not be able to match this nor deal a blow to the IDF that can equate the blow the IDF can cause to Lebanon. For that, Hezbullah has to explore a new doctrine which is focused on limited small scale effective attacks that will raise costs for every Israel attack in terms of offense and focus its defense on eliminating certain Israeli tools that will make a difference.
To do this, Hezbullah will have to analyze what it was most affected during the war from and say.
- Jets? I cannot deal with this
- Large drones? I can source X weapon from Iran and make great efforts to weaken this Israel tool and it will affect me positively
- Small drones? There is no clear path to solve this, i should innovate a solution that instead of hunting those FPVs send FPVs to hunt their FPV teams
- Tanks? I should increase the efforts of the engineering units in south Lebanon and prepare traps during peacetime
- Hummers and small APCs? Increase the ATGMs ambushes and not stop before a vehicle is burning and its rescue which will defin come. Penetration is not enough
its about focused efforts on dealing with the ways of war. Focus on defeating your enemy by defeating its tools and not to focus on what tools you think you should have to defeat the enemy as a whole.
etc etc. You get the trend mixed with some outside border actions, return to tradition martyrdom attacks. Also? limit the reliance of the rocket and missile units. Saturation attacks were the solution once, but the Israeli AD is capable of absorbing such attacks because this is what its AD defense was built to tackle, unlike most other armies in the world. Rocket and Missile attacks should only be the last resort if Hezbullah's attacks through drones or units are able to destroy the radars, else, itll be futile and not effective enough to pressure the Israeli army.
But the reality, Hezbullah is bound by 1701 and the new ceasefire agreement in the south only and this is what the Lebanese state is not building on. Aoun and Nawaf can capitalize on this and say Lebanon already signed a deal that the U.S sponsored and that stipulated a full withdrawal and the prisoners were already promised to be released if Israel is allowed to stay for two extra months. However Aoun and Nawaf do no care, and they share the same U.S, Israeli, Arab goal of full disarming Hezbullah and ending its military branch.
Else, they could have used this existing deal and rallied behind the world's newly emerging stance against Israel and asked the EU and so on for help. Yet, they did not care about submitting one formal complaint to the UN, while Israel? already filed about 1,500 complaints against Lebanon since December 2024.
Therefore, overcoming the current internal issues will be more important than overcoming Israel for now. Nawaf's government ends next year, and to weaken Aoun find an PM who will not fully agree with the current trajectory of events. The Shia alone cannot do so, and a PM can be chosen without them, so itll depend if some Christian, Sunnis, and Druze decide to grow some balls.
As for Israel, Hezbullah needs a new doctrine that is focused on defense and dealing more pain to the IDF through that. As it stands, the IDF was able to accumulate strength in both the defense and offense and under current circumstance Hezbullah as a non-state actor will not be able to match this nor deal a blow to the IDF that can equate the blow the IDF can cause to Lebanon. For that, Hezbullah has to explore a new doctrine which is focused on limited small scale effective attacks that will raise costs for every Israel attack in terms of offense and focus its defense on eliminating certain Israeli tools that will make a difference.
To do this, Hezbullah will have to analyze what it was most affected during the war from and say.
- Jets? I cannot deal with this
- Large drones? I can source X weapon from Iran and make great efforts to weaken this Israel tool and it will affect me positively
- Small drones? There is no clear path to solve this, i should innovate a solution that instead of hunting those FPVs send FPVs to hunt their FPV teams
- Tanks? I should increase the efforts of the engineering units in south Lebanon and prepare traps during peacetime
- Hummers and small APCs? Increase the ATGMs ambushes and not stop before a vehicle is burning and its rescue which will defin come. Penetration is not enough
its about focused efforts on dealing with the ways of war. Focus on defeating your enemy by defeating its tools and not to focus on what tools you think you should have to defeat the enemy as a whole.
etc etc. You get the trend mixed with some outside border actions, return to tradition martyrdom attacks. Also? limit the reliance of the rocket and missile units. Saturation attacks were the solution once, but the Israeli AD is capable of absorbing such attacks because this is what its AD defense was built to tackle, unlike most other armies in the world. Rocket and Missile attacks should only be the last resort if Hezbullah's attacks through drones or units are able to destroy the radars, else, itll be futile and not effective enough to pressure the Israeli army.
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it will burden Hezbullah for years to train units and prepare such a static non-mobile infrastructure that if exposed like what we dealt with will be neutralized on day one and if kept safe will not be enough to change the war or deal a blow to stop an army.
This also applies to Iran. One advanced ballistic missile that can penetrate Israeli air defenses every single time, is better than a cheap ballistic missile that is designed to impact based on saturation success. One accurate missile that will impact a jet hanger or an HQ is far better than a missile that will missile the Kirya by 50 meters.
Success will depend on innovation and changes, and putting the right people in the right place and giving them the change to prove themselves. No solution will come cheap or fast enough and pressure will only ever grow on the Shia in Lebanon because the whole world wants an end to the ideology they represent and they want to end this whole conflict by ensuring submission to the empire. For that be patient, do your part by donating and preaching and have faith in God that injustice cannot last forever and a breakthrough will happen. Deepen your relationship with the core values of faith.
This also applies to Iran. One advanced ballistic missile that can penetrate Israeli air defenses every single time, is better than a cheap ballistic missile that is designed to impact based on saturation success. One accurate missile that will impact a jet hanger or an HQ is far better than a missile that will missile the Kirya by 50 meters.
Success will depend on innovation and changes, and putting the right people in the right place and giving them the change to prove themselves. No solution will come cheap or fast enough and pressure will only ever grow on the Shia in Lebanon because the whole world wants an end to the ideology they represent and they want to end this whole conflict by ensuring submission to the empire. For that be patient, do your part by donating and preaching and have faith in God that injustice cannot last forever and a breakthrough will happen. Deepen your relationship with the core values of faith.
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@LebUpdate is now offering Ads for any channel that might be interested.
It'll be simple, an ad will be posted during the day and pinned for 24 hours with no posts after it for one hour (excluding during breaking news)
Financial advice and crypto scam Ads won't be allowed. Israeli or any "Haram products" won't be tolerated.
If interested, kindly DM the channel through that anonymous option in the bottom left of your screen
It'll be simple, an ad will be posted during the day and pinned for 24 hours with no posts after it for one hour (excluding during breaking news)
Financial advice and crypto scam Ads won't be allowed. Israeli or any "Haram products" won't be tolerated.
If interested, kindly DM the channel through that anonymous option in the bottom left of your screen
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Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
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Tomorrow or Thursday the Lebanese president President and Prime Minister might put the state against Hezbullah in the most direct and confrontational way in decades.
Lots of talks and lots of back channel negations, with immense forgein pressure on the Lebanese state to act.
Aoun and Nawaf might want to disarm Hezbullah and they definitely share this goal with Israel and the U.S, however Israel and its patron didn't give this government a single shred of legitimacy or guarantees in regards to the end of attacks, occupation, prisoners so on.
They didn't give this government a single accomplishment to drive the narrative, especially after Hezbullah fully and for the first time ever at this scale, fully disarmed south of the Litani river.
There is one certainty, Hezbullah will not disarm.
There is also on certainty, Israel wants to occupy these parts of Lebanon forever and wants to force Lebanon into normalization that starts with disarming Hezbullah and ends with outlawing Hezbullah
Lots of talks and lots of back channel negations, with immense forgein pressure on the Lebanese state to act.
Aoun and Nawaf might want to disarm Hezbullah and they definitely share this goal with Israel and the U.S, however Israel and its patron didn't give this government a single shred of legitimacy or guarantees in regards to the end of attacks, occupation, prisoners so on.
They didn't give this government a single accomplishment to drive the narrative, especially after Hezbullah fully and for the first time ever at this scale, fully disarmed south of the Litani river.
There is one certainty, Hezbullah will not disarm.
There is also on certainty, Israel wants to occupy these parts of Lebanon forever and wants to force Lebanon into normalization that starts with disarming Hezbullah and ends with outlawing Hezbullah
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FYI
President Aoun officially received from the American envoy a definitive rejection of the Lebanese observations that demand the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation from the occupied Lebanese territories.
The withdrawal should have been part of the ceasefire that the U.S sponsored back in November 2024.
Yet they aren't willing to even withdraw temporarily now from a demilitarized area as a sign of good will to give the Lebanese state real momentum to ask Hezbullah to disarm
They aren't giving the Lebanese state anything to justify its actions. They are using a stick without a carrot.
President Aoun officially received from the American envoy a definitive rejection of the Lebanese observations that demand the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation from the occupied Lebanese territories.
The withdrawal should have been part of the ceasefire that the U.S sponsored back in November 2024.
Yet they aren't willing to even withdraw temporarily now from a demilitarized area as a sign of good will to give the Lebanese state real momentum to ask Hezbullah to disarm
They aren't giving the Lebanese state anything to justify its actions. They are using a stick without a carrot.
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Barak told Aoun:
- Disarm Hezbullah fully (Hezbullah already 40 km away from the Israeli border and disarmed)
- Demarcate the border with Syria
And only after, just maybe, the U.S will ask Israel if what was done is enough and if Israel says yes, the U.S might ask Israel yo uphold its obligations under the 2024 ceasefire agreement.
The same agreement that stipulated a full Israeli withdrawal within 60 days
- Disarm Hezbullah fully (Hezbullah already 40 km away from the Israeli border and disarmed)
- Demarcate the border with Syria
And only after, just maybe, the U.S will ask Israel if what was done is enough and if Israel says yes, the U.S might ask Israel yo uphold its obligations under the 2024 ceasefire agreement.
The same agreement that stipulated a full Israeli withdrawal within 60 days
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The issue with Lebanese, they are a bunch of sadistic hypocrites
7-May? Druze leader Joumblat himself confirmed the U.S. encouraged him to gather arms and fight Hezbullah. Hezbullah didn't initiate.
Ain al-Rummanah? A well setup ambush by the Lebanese forces party where 7 Shia were killed between civilians and then armed men. Zero Christian militiamen were killed
Kahaleh? A Hezbulla truck flipped there, and the locals attacked them, killing one. Only after being shot at did Hezbullah security shoot back, killing the shooter.
Arab Khaldeh? Those vile gypsies are the ones that attacked Ali-Shebli's house and commercial building over an Ashoura banner on his own house. They proceeded and shot him dead during a wedding he was attending!
You guys are a bunch of bastards
https://x.com/Hraoui17/status/1952452065944326601
7-May? Druze leader Joumblat himself confirmed the U.S. encouraged him to gather arms and fight Hezbullah. Hezbullah didn't initiate.
Ain al-Rummanah? A well setup ambush by the Lebanese forces party where 7 Shia were killed between civilians and then armed men. Zero Christian militiamen were killed
Kahaleh? A Hezbulla truck flipped there, and the locals attacked them, killing one. Only after being shot at did Hezbullah security shoot back, killing the shooter.
Arab Khaldeh? Those vile gypsies are the ones that attacked Ali-Shebli's house and commercial building over an Ashoura banner on his own house. They proceeded and shot him dead during a wedding he was attending!
You guys are a bunch of bastards
https://x.com/Hraoui17/status/1952452065944326601
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اللقاء الذي جمع عون وسلام في قصر بعبدا قبل قليل
The meeting that brought together Aoun and Salam at Baabda Palace a short while ago
بدء جلسة مجلس الوزراء في قصر بعبدا وعلى جدول أعمالها بند حصرية السلاح
The Cabinet session began at Baabda Palace, with the topic of the exclusivity of arms on the agenda
The meeting that brought together Aoun and Salam at Baabda Palace a short while ago
بدء جلسة مجلس الوزراء في قصر بعبدا وعلى جدول أعمالها بند حصرية السلاح
The Cabinet session began at Baabda Palace, with the topic of the exclusivity of arms on the agenda
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❗️ Hezbullah and Amal withdrew from the government's session at the end
❗️The Lebanese PM tasked the Lebanese army to prepare an anti-Hezbullah plan by the end of this year to gather all arms and form a monopoly for the state.
This is effectively asking the Lebanese army to spy and gather Intel on Hezbullah and prepare plans to take over Hezbullah-known areas if, IF, the order is ever given
❗️The Lebanese PM tasked the Lebanese army to prepare an anti-Hezbullah plan by the end of this year to gather all arms and form a monopoly for the state.
This is effectively asking the Lebanese army to spy and gather Intel on Hezbullah and prepare plans to take over Hezbullah-known areas if, IF, the order is ever given
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