On the contrary, Aoun's and Nawaf's actions are more critical because any internal disintegration of Lebanese security will invite a permanent Israeli occupation in south Lebanon and Beqaa and drawn Lebanon in a decade long instability and conflict. Aoun and Nawaf are very vocal about wanting to disarm Hezbullah and they have the power to enforce this through a government decree signed by the president to demand the Lebanese army to attack Hezbullah. However it still seems they are avoiding this option and want Hezbullah to take the same initiative it took in south of the Litani river in the north of it.
But the reality, Hezbullah is bound by 1701 and the new ceasefire agreement in the south only and this is what the Lebanese state is not building on. Aoun and Nawaf can capitalize on this and say Lebanon already signed a deal that the U.S sponsored and that stipulated a full withdrawal and the prisoners were already promised to be released if Israel is allowed to stay for two extra months. However Aoun and Nawaf do no care, and they share the same U.S, Israeli, Arab goal of full disarming Hezbullah and ending its military branch.
Else, they could have used this existing deal and rallied behind the world's newly emerging stance against Israel and asked the EU and so on for help. Yet, they did not care about submitting one formal complaint to the UN, while Israel? already filed about 1,500 complaints against Lebanon since December 2024.
Therefore, overcoming the current internal issues will be more important than overcoming Israel for now. Nawaf's government ends next year, and to weaken Aoun find an PM who will not fully agree with the current trajectory of events. The Shia alone cannot do so, and a PM can be chosen without them, so itll depend if some Christian, Sunnis, and Druze decide to grow some balls.
As for Israel, Hezbullah needs a new doctrine that is focused on defense and dealing more pain to the IDF through that. As it stands, the IDF was able to accumulate strength in both the defense and offense and under current circumstance Hezbullah as a non-state actor will not be able to match this nor deal a blow to the IDF that can equate the blow the IDF can cause to Lebanon. For that, Hezbullah has to explore a new doctrine which is focused on limited small scale effective attacks that will raise costs for every Israel attack in terms of offense and focus its defense on eliminating certain Israeli tools that will make a difference.
To do this, Hezbullah will have to analyze what it was most affected during the war from and say.
- Jets? I cannot deal with this
- Large drones? I can source X weapon from Iran and make great efforts to weaken this Israel tool and it will affect me positively
- Small drones? There is no clear path to solve this, i should innovate a solution that instead of hunting those FPVs send FPVs to hunt their FPV teams
- Tanks? I should increase the efforts of the engineering units in south Lebanon and prepare traps during peacetime
- Hummers and small APCs? Increase the ATGMs ambushes and not stop before a vehicle is burning and its rescue which will defin come. Penetration is not enough
its about focused efforts on dealing with the ways of war. Focus on defeating your enemy by defeating its tools and not to focus on what tools you think you should have to defeat the enemy as a whole.
etc etc. You get the trend mixed with some outside border actions, return to tradition martyrdom attacks. Also? limit the reliance of the rocket and missile units. Saturation attacks were the solution once, but the Israeli AD is capable of absorbing such attacks because this is what its AD defense was built to tackle, unlike most other armies in the world. Rocket and Missile attacks should only be the last resort if Hezbullah's attacks through drones or units are able to destroy the radars, else, itll be futile and not effective enough to pressure the Israeli army.
But the reality, Hezbullah is bound by 1701 and the new ceasefire agreement in the south only and this is what the Lebanese state is not building on. Aoun and Nawaf can capitalize on this and say Lebanon already signed a deal that the U.S sponsored and that stipulated a full withdrawal and the prisoners were already promised to be released if Israel is allowed to stay for two extra months. However Aoun and Nawaf do no care, and they share the same U.S, Israeli, Arab goal of full disarming Hezbullah and ending its military branch.
Else, they could have used this existing deal and rallied behind the world's newly emerging stance against Israel and asked the EU and so on for help. Yet, they did not care about submitting one formal complaint to the UN, while Israel? already filed about 1,500 complaints against Lebanon since December 2024.
Therefore, overcoming the current internal issues will be more important than overcoming Israel for now. Nawaf's government ends next year, and to weaken Aoun find an PM who will not fully agree with the current trajectory of events. The Shia alone cannot do so, and a PM can be chosen without them, so itll depend if some Christian, Sunnis, and Druze decide to grow some balls.
As for Israel, Hezbullah needs a new doctrine that is focused on defense and dealing more pain to the IDF through that. As it stands, the IDF was able to accumulate strength in both the defense and offense and under current circumstance Hezbullah as a non-state actor will not be able to match this nor deal a blow to the IDF that can equate the blow the IDF can cause to Lebanon. For that, Hezbullah has to explore a new doctrine which is focused on limited small scale effective attacks that will raise costs for every Israel attack in terms of offense and focus its defense on eliminating certain Israeli tools that will make a difference.
To do this, Hezbullah will have to analyze what it was most affected during the war from and say.
- Jets? I cannot deal with this
- Large drones? I can source X weapon from Iran and make great efforts to weaken this Israel tool and it will affect me positively
- Small drones? There is no clear path to solve this, i should innovate a solution that instead of hunting those FPVs send FPVs to hunt their FPV teams
- Tanks? I should increase the efforts of the engineering units in south Lebanon and prepare traps during peacetime
- Hummers and small APCs? Increase the ATGMs ambushes and not stop before a vehicle is burning and its rescue which will defin come. Penetration is not enough
its about focused efforts on dealing with the ways of war. Focus on defeating your enemy by defeating its tools and not to focus on what tools you think you should have to defeat the enemy as a whole.
etc etc. You get the trend mixed with some outside border actions, return to tradition martyrdom attacks. Also? limit the reliance of the rocket and missile units. Saturation attacks were the solution once, but the Israeli AD is capable of absorbing such attacks because this is what its AD defense was built to tackle, unlike most other armies in the world. Rocket and Missile attacks should only be the last resort if Hezbullah's attacks through drones or units are able to destroy the radars, else, itll be futile and not effective enough to pressure the Israeli army.
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it will burden Hezbullah for years to train units and prepare such a static non-mobile infrastructure that if exposed like what we dealt with will be neutralized on day one and if kept safe will not be enough to change the war or deal a blow to stop an army.
This also applies to Iran. One advanced ballistic missile that can penetrate Israeli air defenses every single time, is better than a cheap ballistic missile that is designed to impact based on saturation success. One accurate missile that will impact a jet hanger or an HQ is far better than a missile that will missile the Kirya by 50 meters.
Success will depend on innovation and changes, and putting the right people in the right place and giving them the change to prove themselves. No solution will come cheap or fast enough and pressure will only ever grow on the Shia in Lebanon because the whole world wants an end to the ideology they represent and they want to end this whole conflict by ensuring submission to the empire. For that be patient, do your part by donating and preaching and have faith in God that injustice cannot last forever and a breakthrough will happen. Deepen your relationship with the core values of faith.
This also applies to Iran. One advanced ballistic missile that can penetrate Israeli air defenses every single time, is better than a cheap ballistic missile that is designed to impact based on saturation success. One accurate missile that will impact a jet hanger or an HQ is far better than a missile that will missile the Kirya by 50 meters.
Success will depend on innovation and changes, and putting the right people in the right place and giving them the change to prove themselves. No solution will come cheap or fast enough and pressure will only ever grow on the Shia in Lebanon because the whole world wants an end to the ideology they represent and they want to end this whole conflict by ensuring submission to the empire. For that be patient, do your part by donating and preaching and have faith in God that injustice cannot last forever and a breakthrough will happen. Deepen your relationship with the core values of faith.
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@LebUpdate is now offering Ads for any channel that might be interested.
It'll be simple, an ad will be posted during the day and pinned for 24 hours with no posts after it for one hour (excluding during breaking news)
Financial advice and crypto scam Ads won't be allowed. Israeli or any "Haram products" won't be tolerated.
If interested, kindly DM the channel through that anonymous option in the bottom left of your screen
It'll be simple, an ad will be posted during the day and pinned for 24 hours with no posts after it for one hour (excluding during breaking news)
Financial advice and crypto scam Ads won't be allowed. Israeli or any "Haram products" won't be tolerated.
If interested, kindly DM the channel through that anonymous option in the bottom left of your screen
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VIEW IN TELEGRAM
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Tomorrow or Thursday the Lebanese president President and Prime Minister might put the state against Hezbullah in the most direct and confrontational way in decades.
Lots of talks and lots of back channel negations, with immense forgein pressure on the Lebanese state to act.
Aoun and Nawaf might want to disarm Hezbullah and they definitely share this goal with Israel and the U.S, however Israel and its patron didn't give this government a single shred of legitimacy or guarantees in regards to the end of attacks, occupation, prisoners so on.
They didn't give this government a single accomplishment to drive the narrative, especially after Hezbullah fully and for the first time ever at this scale, fully disarmed south of the Litani river.
There is one certainty, Hezbullah will not disarm.
There is also on certainty, Israel wants to occupy these parts of Lebanon forever and wants to force Lebanon into normalization that starts with disarming Hezbullah and ends with outlawing Hezbullah
Lots of talks and lots of back channel negations, with immense forgein pressure on the Lebanese state to act.
Aoun and Nawaf might want to disarm Hezbullah and they definitely share this goal with Israel and the U.S, however Israel and its patron didn't give this government a single shred of legitimacy or guarantees in regards to the end of attacks, occupation, prisoners so on.
They didn't give this government a single accomplishment to drive the narrative, especially after Hezbullah fully and for the first time ever at this scale, fully disarmed south of the Litani river.
There is one certainty, Hezbullah will not disarm.
There is also on certainty, Israel wants to occupy these parts of Lebanon forever and wants to force Lebanon into normalization that starts with disarming Hezbullah and ends with outlawing Hezbullah
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FYI
President Aoun officially received from the American envoy a definitive rejection of the Lebanese observations that demand the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation from the occupied Lebanese territories.
The withdrawal should have been part of the ceasefire that the U.S sponsored back in November 2024.
Yet they aren't willing to even withdraw temporarily now from a demilitarized area as a sign of good will to give the Lebanese state real momentum to ask Hezbullah to disarm
They aren't giving the Lebanese state anything to justify its actions. They are using a stick without a carrot.
President Aoun officially received from the American envoy a definitive rejection of the Lebanese observations that demand the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation from the occupied Lebanese territories.
The withdrawal should have been part of the ceasefire that the U.S sponsored back in November 2024.
Yet they aren't willing to even withdraw temporarily now from a demilitarized area as a sign of good will to give the Lebanese state real momentum to ask Hezbullah to disarm
They aren't giving the Lebanese state anything to justify its actions. They are using a stick without a carrot.
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Barak told Aoun:
- Disarm Hezbullah fully (Hezbullah already 40 km away from the Israeli border and disarmed)
- Demarcate the border with Syria
And only after, just maybe, the U.S will ask Israel if what was done is enough and if Israel says yes, the U.S might ask Israel yo uphold its obligations under the 2024 ceasefire agreement.
The same agreement that stipulated a full Israeli withdrawal within 60 days
- Disarm Hezbullah fully (Hezbullah already 40 km away from the Israeli border and disarmed)
- Demarcate the border with Syria
And only after, just maybe, the U.S will ask Israel if what was done is enough and if Israel says yes, the U.S might ask Israel yo uphold its obligations under the 2024 ceasefire agreement.
The same agreement that stipulated a full Israeli withdrawal within 60 days
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The issue with Lebanese, they are a bunch of sadistic hypocrites
7-May? Druze leader Joumblat himself confirmed the U.S. encouraged him to gather arms and fight Hezbullah. Hezbullah didn't initiate.
Ain al-Rummanah? A well setup ambush by the Lebanese forces party where 7 Shia were killed between civilians and then armed men. Zero Christian militiamen were killed
Kahaleh? A Hezbulla truck flipped there, and the locals attacked them, killing one. Only after being shot at did Hezbullah security shoot back, killing the shooter.
Arab Khaldeh? Those vile gypsies are the ones that attacked Ali-Shebli's house and commercial building over an Ashoura banner on his own house. They proceeded and shot him dead during a wedding he was attending!
You guys are a bunch of bastards
https://x.com/Hraoui17/status/1952452065944326601
7-May? Druze leader Joumblat himself confirmed the U.S. encouraged him to gather arms and fight Hezbullah. Hezbullah didn't initiate.
Ain al-Rummanah? A well setup ambush by the Lebanese forces party where 7 Shia were killed between civilians and then armed men. Zero Christian militiamen were killed
Kahaleh? A Hezbulla truck flipped there, and the locals attacked them, killing one. Only after being shot at did Hezbullah security shoot back, killing the shooter.
Arab Khaldeh? Those vile gypsies are the ones that attacked Ali-Shebli's house and commercial building over an Ashoura banner on his own house. They proceeded and shot him dead during a wedding he was attending!
You guys are a bunch of bastards
https://x.com/Hraoui17/status/1952452065944326601
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اللقاء الذي جمع عون وسلام في قصر بعبدا قبل قليل
The meeting that brought together Aoun and Salam at Baabda Palace a short while ago
بدء جلسة مجلس الوزراء في قصر بعبدا وعلى جدول أعمالها بند حصرية السلاح
The Cabinet session began at Baabda Palace, with the topic of the exclusivity of arms on the agenda
The meeting that brought together Aoun and Salam at Baabda Palace a short while ago
بدء جلسة مجلس الوزراء في قصر بعبدا وعلى جدول أعمالها بند حصرية السلاح
The Cabinet session began at Baabda Palace, with the topic of the exclusivity of arms on the agenda
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❗️ Hezbullah and Amal withdrew from the government's session at the end
❗️The Lebanese PM tasked the Lebanese army to prepare an anti-Hezbullah plan by the end of this year to gather all arms and form a monopoly for the state.
This is effectively asking the Lebanese army to spy and gather Intel on Hezbullah and prepare plans to take over Hezbullah-known areas if, IF, the order is ever given
❗️The Lebanese PM tasked the Lebanese army to prepare an anti-Hezbullah plan by the end of this year to gather all arms and form a monopoly for the state.
This is effectively asking the Lebanese army to spy and gather Intel on Hezbullah and prepare plans to take over Hezbullah-known areas if, IF, the order is ever given
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Lebanese News and Updates
Oh, and the road is called President Hafez Al Assad Road. That then leads to Imam Khomaini road.
They are also changing the road from Hafez al-Assad to Ziad Al-Rahbani
It's funny since their political side is who named it so when they were slaves for Syria before betraying it.
It's funny since their political side is who named it so when they were slaves for Syria before betraying it.
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❗️An Israeli targeted assassination in Brital, allegedly a very high value target.
🥀 One was martyred
The IDF isn't bound by south Lebanon, and assassinations are only taking place if the IDF ever finds who they want.
After the war, and during it, many they failed to find and continue to fail..but eventually a breakthrough happens
🥀 One was martyred
The IDF isn't bound by south Lebanon, and assassinations are only taking place if the IDF ever finds who they want.
After the war, and during it, many they failed to find and continue to fail..but eventually a breakthrough happens
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