Short thread about general things

There are a lot of factors to be mentioned when describing the situation we are in from Lebanon to Iran, and especially Gaza, but this is now a past that cannot be changed or influenced anymore. However as time goes by, there are still a lot of unknowns that I hope get answered that could help in uncovering some mysteries and put some events in a plausible context of justification. Despite all that, with every new day and the current state of weakness we are, I’m leaning forward to believe that the events of 7-October were the trigger point of the Israeli project to crush a decade of growing Resistance popularity and strength. This trigger was not Israeli made nor Israeli influenced, it was genuine Palestinian action that had some flaws and mistakes. On the other hand, this trigger would not have been successful had the Israeli army been able to uphold its duties on that day, and this is why I believe today, that the failure then was intentional. Israel swallowed a poisonous pill to allow it to poison the well that quenched the thirst of the whole Axis
There failure in 2006 was much smaller, yet the repercussion on their army, state, and government was much greater.

Sacrificing some Jews for the greater cause of Jews is embedded in the rationale of Zionism and is not something new. The costs they had to pay that day was worth the achievements they secured from destroying Gaza and putting it under a new multi-international occupation to weaking Hezbullah and twisting Iran’s hand.

The current Trump administration plan in Gaza does not only erode the existence of a Palestinian people there, it creates an enforceable population-control mechanism and ensure permeant Israeli control on all borders and creates an elite to suppress the population. They want to create a dystopian city. It wont be created because there are no funds to do that nor do they care, however they will implement all other security factors in terms of control and new border zoning. The IDF is already digging a trench to separate the yellow line from the remaining of Gaza. There will be many Gazas for now, enabled by some traitorous tribes and Fatah Movement.

Not far off, was the success in Lebanon. After a year into the ceasefire, it became very clear that the success that was assumed at the end of the war after the heroic defense of Hezbollah in the 66-day was eroded by the actions of the Lebanese state and the U.S administration that ensured that the ceasefire agreement will not only not be implemented, but twisted in favor of justifying the Israeli actions that were supposed to be considered as violations. The Lebanese Army commander Aoun fortified this in two ways: The day he failed to deploy the army in south Lebanon at the day of the ceasefire which allowed the IDF to fill the vacuum and demolish towns ensuring people have no where to go to and setting the ground for the so-called buffer zone – and the day he became president as the U.S’s #1 pick and did not leverage his relationship to pressure the U.S on Israel: That the demilitarization of south Litani area will only continue if Israel attacks stop.

Rather? He worked on stripping south Litani area and securing the border security of Israel while their attacks claimed the lives of 500 Lebanese civilians and destroyed thousands of homes.

His actions and those of Prime Minster Nawaf Salam, supplemented by the comments of the Lebanese Minister of Foreign affairs gave the legitimacy to the Israeli attacks in Lebanon because they justified the Israeli rhetoric: Both of us are fighting against the same illegal weapons of an illegal organization in our own different way.

Else, we would have heard more condemnations, more action, more calls to ambassadors. Yet, they stayed silent, accepted, and did not raise a complaint to the UN security council. 50 years from now, a generation of Lebanese will come and say that Israel did not violate the ceasefire only Hezbollah did.

What is their evidence? Zero Lebanese state letters to the UN verses 20,000 Israeli complaints about non-existing Hezbollah violations. This mimics the era before 1969.

This is very important to understand, how the Lebanese state if furthering the Israeli goals in Lebanon and is working side by side to achieve that. I really don’t care to hear what some Amal movement supporters are saying and defending Aoun while putting subliminal blame on Hezbollah, nor will I give weight to how Amal is fighting Hezbollah in several towns and are the ones who are calling the Lebanese army to come inspect some areas which Hezbollah says they won’t allow. This happened in Kfathata and it was not good. Amal-Hezbollah rivalry is healthy and needed to ensure the Shia population in Lebanon have an option but still within the same teaching and morality of their culture, but some old grudges never die.

I was once visiting a town in south Lebanon about 10 years ago and saw a poster on a phone pole quoting a dead Amal militiaman hating on Hezbollah, talking about money from Iran, serving Iran interest, being bad for Shia. It was funny.

Aoun and Nawaf are taking advantage of the weakening of Hezbollah to advance their personal and foreign goals, knowing that Hezbollah at this moment does not have the tools to force their hand or change the tide. Hezbollah is under U.S pressure, Israeli attacks that are tracking each movement and officials to kill at any moment, and the state’s intelligence services that are working to collect as much intel on Hezbollah as possible. Lebanon is designed as a dysfunctional state, where a Christian minority exerts more power than it should and a Muslim majority split into halves in terms of power and influence. It is designed to fail.

I’m a staunch supporter for securing Christian rights in Lebanon and furthering their existence in this ancestral home, however all I saw from their politicians so far was evil and from their economic figures favoritism. I do support a non-sectarian vote for all government seats and ending the 50\50 job allocation. I support this in Lebanon, a Muslim majority country and would support this in any Christian majority country with a Muslim minority.

Hezbollah is also unable to take any unpopular action because its supporters haven’t recovered from the past war, and there is an ongoing trust issue with its leadership ranging from skepticism in regards to Sheikh Naim’s ability and age, blame for the failure that happened in the war including on dead commanders, and lack of financial support for the families impacted by the war.

I have distanced myself to avoid learning such details, but it was particularly sad knowing about the rumor that Sayyed Nasrllah himself was not able to control some commanders and that Hezbollah is unable to fire some people because they already work in sensitive portfolios. Sayyed is said to have faced 3 strokes the days of the pager attacks, or so some people claim to justify why his doctor and nurse where with him the day he died in that location.

Personally, I find all of the people’s chatter and nagging still under an acceptable threshold because they are mostly said in private and did not materialize into public dissident. It is normal for people who had security for 23 years to feel bad about the situation now, and this discomfort grows less the farther you are away from the border area. There is no dissident and people are still staunch Hezbollah supports with hopes that his is a temporarily situation and that something will happen to change the tides.

A true test of Hezbollah’s supporter base will be the parliamentary elections in 5 months, and it will be very important to achieve two things: Hezbollah to get the most votes similar to the last two elections, the number of votes to actually increase in % and not stay idle while the other groups close the gap, and no non-Amal non-Hezbollah becomes an MP. This might be the last elections where Nabih Berri is elected as the parliament speaker and a parliament speaker must be Shia.

1+1 = 2 and ensuring all Shia MPs are loyal, ensures the parliament does not fall into the control of the US-KSA sphere of influence.

Putting all the above aside, how can we describe the present and what are the solutions needed for the future to avoid a situation where Hezbollah is either forced to fight the government and destroy Lebanon or Hezbollah disarms to become a failed political party (politics is not their best skill)
Currently at the present time, the Lebanese state was able to accomplish what it was tasked for by disarming Hezbollah in south Lebanon and removing its influence from all hills and valleys that were taken as bases for the past 40 years. Hezbollah cooperated in this to adhere to the 1701 decree and the ceasefire agreement. Of course small arms were not found and still abundant, from Aks to PKMs and so on. However missile bases, rocket launchers, fortified safe areas and everything else was either exposed by the UN or Lebanese army or located and demolished. Some locations are yet to be found. The UN used to pay locals for tips about locations and probably still does. The UN mandate will end soon and the Lebanese government is working on having another form of foreign militaries available to monitor the border area, likely consisting of France with hopes of having CENTCOM more actively involved. They will monitor Lebanon and do nothing about Israel. This will be an issue because these countries will work actively to monitor any secret attempt by Hezbollah to operate and raid valleys in search of things that Israel cannot see from the sky.

Nothing eroded Lebanon’s sovereignty as much as Lebanese did. Failed people.

It is not easy to hide anything now a day. How hard is to find who is the local Hezbollah liaison in a town, a public figure. How hard is it for locals in a town to know which building is rented by Hezbollah. How hard is to for locals to know what valley Hezbollah is digging in. How easy is it to even find a new untouched virgin valley or hill to work in. This is how dire the situation is. One bad person in a town of 50,000 is enough to expose just enough to damage so much.

With this being the situation in south Litani area, the Lebanese government wants to move to the second phase which is the area between the Litani area and the Awali river in Sidon. This area was never in Israeli rhetoric in the past 40 years and not even part of the 1701 UN Decree nor the ceasefire agreement as confessed by Gallant, the Israeli Minister of Defense during the war on Lebanon.

However with the Lebanese state’s acceptance and the Israeli need to end Hezbollah and not only neutralize its threat, this is the current area of operations of Israeli attacks that largely seceded in south Lebanon and now focusing on north Litani towns.
Many of these towns were never attacked since 1982, some were never ever bombed, some never heard of. But today, there are no red lines and the Israel is working day and night to ensure it can generate enough targets on daily basis and reach a quota set by the army on targets to engage each week.

They are not only attacking liaisons and fighters in civilian life, they are attacking full buildings where a Hezbollah office might or might not have been in an apartment out of 10 in a building. They do not care. The more north you go south Lebanon the more densely populated the area is and higher the builds, thus more damage will be caused.

On the other hand, one can claim to be optimistic and say that Aoun is trying to make it sound that he is anti Hezbollah to protect Lebanon and ensure it stays away from war by appeasing the West and Arabs, however if appeasing comes with so much bombing and such Israeli action, I do not think not appeasing would make a difference. There is no war needed by Israel to achieve anything in Lebanon. This rate of attacks is all it needs to maintain at zero costs forever. The worse they could do is attacking buildings in Beirut and drone strike there. They did many times and Aoun’s rhetoric changed nothing.

So to describe the present in less words, with words that describes goals, actions, and progress:

- Israel is attacking on daily basis all Lebanese border towns to ensure locals can neither return to their towns nor bring any engineering vehicle to rebuild their destroyed homes, hoping the locals would abandon the towns after the IDF demolished them during the 2-month ceasefire to pave the way to make them the buffer zone they failed to enforce during the war. The so called economic buffer zone of normalization lol.
- Israel is attacking on daily basis any local Hezbollah liaison and hunting any Hezbollah fighter than rose in the ranks to fill the gaps caused from the last war, while hunting Hezbollah’s remaining leadership in Beirut and Beqaa to assassinate
- Israel is attacking current and old Hezbollah bases to ensure they are either damaged without possible repair or to restrict access to them
- The Syrian government is working with CENTCOM and others to ensure no weapons are being smuggled to Hezbollah in Lebanon, sold by the black market, even if those weapons are negligible if compared with what Iran used to send Hezbollah.
- The Lebanese government is acting on behalf of a sizable majority in Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah by legitimizing the disarming through government decisions and using the momentum of Israeli attacks to further these goals
- The Lebanese state is working to de-legitimize Hezbollah’s arms despite 2 decades of official ministerial statements that gave Hezbollah the right to bare arms to fight Israel and then set the path to putting the state’s security forces against Hezbollah
The end goal of all three is to have Hezbollah disarmed and transform into a political party with no military function to end the era of resistance in Lebanon forever and pave the way for full peace with Israel in light of the silence of the Sunni population - excluding small parties like the Jama al Islamiah. Even they are cowards worried about allying with Hezbollah for the fear of losing some Arab support.
They are working towards this objective without even offering a solution for Hezbollah to protect the south, and without even offering integration for its members into Lebanese security forces. They want men with 2-5 decades of military experience to simply stop the only thing they know to do and integrate into a life they are now too late to start a new one - and abandon their ideals and promises. They failed to provide an alternative to the security Hezbollah’s prime offered in the south and failed to offer Hezbollah any price for disbanding. They want all without giving anything in return, and do not want to comprise.

What are the challenges facing Hezbollah today (in the eyes of people not necessary all my words):

- Fall of the old Syrian regime that gave it a path to Iraq and Iran for weapon smuggling and training
- Fall of the Syrian regime that offered a safe backyard to its activities
- Weakening of the Iranian deterrence against Israel which made the Iranian system more volatile and in jeopardy
- Weakening of the Iranian economy and sanctions on rich Lebanese Shia around the world which reduced available funds for arms and social activities
- Death of historical figures with a history of success which they could have leveraged to persuade people of the past and present events
- Lack of ability to offer any accomplishments that can directly reflect on its support base to ease the current burdens
- Growing resentment due to the inability to rebuild and compensate for rent
- Difficulty in operating big training camps and retaining some reserves, with news of some joining the Lebanese security services for job. (the joke in the army is that new joinee are two: either soy boys or ex-military (shia). Through I don’t know what they are doing once they found out they are ex amal or Hezb)

- Lack of public communication with the people, as they used to depend on Sayyed Nasrallah more than the MPs for updates, with the lack of providing the promised answers to the mishaps of the previous war.
What are the solutions needed by Hezbollah today and how feasible is to reshape the future:

This is an important section and the solutions are layered that span first of all from the people and then to Hezbollah itself. First of all, their leadership is capable and I am in no position to advise them on what is best, however setting that aside, these details here are from the perspective that we don’t know what they are doing and this is what we assume they are following.

The most important factor here is that for the situation to become better is for the Shia in Lebanon to continue to stand firm in their support to Hezbollah’s leadership and ideals and continue to give it the safety net of popular support. And for this support to be meaningful they should be able to translate this into actions through donations, voting, and patience over the current hardships.

It is too much to ask: yes, but Hezbollah is from these people - created by these people and not enforced nor foreign. For that, each has to protect himself by protecting other.

The other point is that Hezbollah is expected to have launched an internal investigation not only to find out what happened but to punish any commander and fighter who made a mistake and to fire anyone who was not up to standards. This is important in this line of work or else we will fall into the same problems again. It is not enough to give them a leave for some time or to assign them to other tasks. It is a hard decision but it is the only way. Bold action.

The second point is that Hezbollah needs to strength the intuitions within it. Rules and laws are the only thing once enforced can result in good outcomes and only with strongly enforced laws can humans be guided to success. No emotions, no nepotism, no assumptions and no feelings. Nepotism is clear and the sons of many should not be eligible for roles. They are good to work in any other job in life and it would be safe to them to be there as it is safe to be inside the organization. But what to I mean by feelings? Is when recruitment used to be dependent on the emotions of a guy, no matter how good he is, would interview you for few minutes and based on his mood or emotions accept you or reject you. You could be qualified, you could have the traits and the knowledge, but you could simply not have worn a shirt he liked that day.

The third point is innovation and the change in the military doctrine, essentially acknowledging that you cannot fight Israel head to head nor with the same type of weapon. You should find new solutions, you should find new ways and you should find gaps. Today rockets are useless against Israeli air defense, what is a new type of weapon that Israel does not have an adequate defense for and could damage just enough is your question. Air defense against jets is expensive and not guaranteed and shooting one jet down will not end the war nor win the war, so what should you do? Focus on the Israeli weapon that is more impactful on the war: Their armed drones. Etc. Find ways to cheat in the battlefield and find ways into their weakness and do not fight head on.

The border of south Lebanon itself lacks any defense measures needed for fighters to adequately defend and this is a disadvantage over a disadvantage – houses are not defenses. Rockets and missiles today are a lost investment that should be abandoned as the main tool of warfare. Turn the Israeli AD into a costly investment that is not useful for them anymore. The Israeli Iranian war proved that there is no number of missiles Hezbollah can fire will be enough to damage Israel deep enough, especially with the close proximity they are to Lebanon and the Israeli air dominance

Redefine the purpose of the armed struggle and adapt into explaining how the war is not for the sake of the ungrateful Palestinian populace only, but for the sake of the Lebanese land and the security of the people against the demonic expansionist Israeli Zionist project that wants to colonize south Lebanon and spread their corruption in it
Rebuild the trust with people by creating achievements on the political and economic level, as this is enough to attract the people. The armed struggle against the Jews is only one front and the people expect work on the cultural, economic and political fronts too.

I once mentioned that economy is the #1 driver for all political struggles and any regime can survive being unjust as long as it offers economic stability to its populace. This is why some Arab monarchies have stable regimes while Iran is unstable in comparison. Iran has the culture, the innovation, the good laws and good governance, yet the dire economic sanctions due to the draconian U.S and European sanctions drove people to blaming their own government for failure and neglected the success and stability it offered on all other fronts.

Hezbollah must work on economic projects in Lebanon that tackle civilian manufacturing products and creating jobs and producing real results in ministries they hold. The work at the ministry should not only be confined on not being corrupt but should rather set an example. For example in the ministry of health, innovate and see what advanced states have achieved in those sectors. There is so much protentional in any job and any task that it could change a lot of things. Being idle in Lebanon only allowed the bastards in other political parties to do as they do when you were strong and when you became weak prey on you.

Another point, is a personal point for me. Ditch randomness and embrace order. Why are martyr photos so random everywhere, made of paper that will get ruined by the sun and rain. Why cant they be made in a unified way across all of Lebanon, hanged neatly in a preserved way, each on a pole, on each pole with a unified genuine non-photoshopped picture with the name and dates. Order and consistency is the key and it starts with things as simple as this.

Finally, all prayers for the Sheikh to accomplish this task. He needs our prayers and our support and he is the man who is carrying a task harder than his predecessors. His task is not easy in an age where there are no clear solutions. Pray and believe in his ability, knowing that he is doing the best a man can do, dependent on God’s guidance and God will decide triumph or failure.

They prolonged prolonged prolonged and didn't find an excuse to attack nor an Iranian provocation to build up on

Yet the aggressive nature of the evil Jews and the U.S war machine knows no boundary or morality

📰 Israel estimates that the US will attack Iran and that the military buildup will be completed within a few days, according to Channel 12

Some European airlines have canceled their trip to Israel

I mean a 12-day war and they weren't satisfied. In what world is trying again within one year is "normal"

Not even video games are like this. But this is how they are...they will prey on you until they either kill you or you injure then deep enough

—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: It's unusually busy at the Falafel shop nearest to the Supreme Leader's office in Tehran

@Middle_East_Spectator

This is a spin joke about the Pizza busy hours in the U.S

The Trump administration is expected to deport dozens of Iranians back to their home country as soon as this Sunday, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

✍ This guy is funny

I highly respect Amir and I totally understand and agree it is economic issue more than anything else

However I disagree that this is a "Khamenie" thing. You do understand that if he compromises on the nuclear issue and says we will stop enrichment they will come after your missile program next as a pretext for draconian sanctions that led to this economic problem

Without those missles Iran is defenseless, with the absence of an air force. They will be an even easier prey.

As for the death toll. Idk what caused it exactly and fully, I'll wait for more details. However I do not believe Iranian security forces killed an unarmed protestor.

https://x.com/i/status/2014800601230479496

Anyways I did my part and supported the Iranian economy by buying all my carpets from Tehran and Mashhad haha 😊

🚨 Israeli airstrike targets Kfardounin in southern Lebanon.

The attack happened without any alert and targeted a large warehouse/hanger area

There is possibly multiple casualties with ambulance now on the scene

❗️Initial reports of possible airstrikes in Jezzine (Baslaya area) and Beqaa (Sha'ra area)

❗️An Israeli drone attack targeted a car in Bareesh

One martyr from the attack. Another injured

🥀 Martyr Jawad Basma

🥀 School teacher, Martyr Mohammad Husseini