China is unlikely to cut key rates in short term amid interest rate gap between China and US and rising inflationary pressure, as well as deficit demand that counters loosening monetary policy, Securities Daily reports, citing Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of Chasing Securities Co.’s Chasing Institute. Likelihood for China to fully cut RRR in 2H is low as inflationary pressures strengthen in 3Q and 4Q and as other economies keep raising rates, but LPR may reduce, report said, citing Pang Ming, an economist with Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. China may step up measures to stabilize economy with possibility to raise fiscal deficit level or release extra special treasury bonds that is not counted in fiscal deficit, report said, citing Chen Li, chief economist with Chuancai Securities Co.

함의: 경제안정이 필요한 중국이 미국과 확대 된 금리차이나 높은 물가로 인해 예금지급준비율을 낮출 순 없겠으나, 재정적자 폭을 확대하거나 이에 계상되지 않는 채권발행 등의 수단을 쓸 수 있다고 함.

An inflation tracker used by the Fed is suggesting a headline y/y CPI print closer to 9% on Wednesday -- above the median forecast of 8.7% -- if a trend seen over the last year continues. The Cleveland Fed’s headline CPI nowcast has seen its month-end reading underestimate the actual figure by an average of 17.7bps over the past year. The average miss grows to 22.7bps looking at just the past 6 months. The end-July reading was 8.82%, which points to a CPI of 9% if the recent error trend holds. At the very least, the nowcast has underestimated actual CPI for the last nine months in a row and is already above official forecasts for July.

함의: 지난 1년 간 시장 예상치는 실제 인플레이션을 매 월 17.7bp 과소평가, 최근 6개월 간 22.7bp 과소평가 했는데, 이 추세를 이어보면 오늘 발표 될 물가지표는 예상치 8.82%를 상회하는 9%대일 가능성 있음.

China’s top leadership has grown increasingly frustrated with a years-long failure to develop semiconductors that can replace US circuitry, an embarrassment capped by a flurry of anti-graft probes into top industry officials and the $9 billion rescue of Tsinghua Unigroup. Senior officials are angry at how tens of billions of dollars funneled into the industry over the past decade haven’t produced the sorts of breakthroughs that emerged from previous national-level scientific endeavors, according to people familiar with top government officials’ thinking. Washington, which has steadily ratcheted up restraints on China, has been able to strong-arm Beijing and successfully contain its technological ambitions, they said, asking not to be identified revealing sensitive deliberations. The investigations have sent shockwaves through a semiconductor industry long accustomed to top-level support. Xi Jinping’s government had allocated more than $100 billion to build up a domestic semiconductor sector so the country could break its dependence on the West. A key area of scrutiny is the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund -- known within the industry as Big Fund -- which had become Beijing’s primary vehicle for doling out capital to the country’s chipmakers. “If you’re going to be putting tens of billions of dollars in an industry, regardless of whether it’s a high technology one or just like building trains and airports, you’re going to have illicit dealings going on,” said Jordan Schneider, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group and host of the China Talk podcast.

함의: 첨단산업이 아니라 전통 건설업에라도 수백억 달러를 쏟아부으면 불법거래가 어찌 안생기겠는가.

The rally in European tech stocks, combined with analysts trimming their price targets, is limiting the potential upside outlook for the sector. After leading the selloff in the first half, tech stocks are the best-performing sector of the Stoxx 600. The sector still faces a flurry of headwinds from hawkish central banks, surging inflation and supply constraints.

함의: 상반기 강한 매도세 이후 훌륭한 성과를 기록한 기술업종, 다만 여전한 금리인상 기간, 인플레이션, 공급망 병목으로 상승여력이 적어보임.

Market indicators signaling a coming recession look to be spreading from US Treasuries to bonds worldwide. With a closely-watched section of the Treasuries yield curve already inverted by the most in more than two decades -- a gauge often seen as a harbinger of an economic slowdown -- the gap between short- and long-end New Zealand rates has narrowed to the smallest in seven years. The difference between Australia’s 10- and three-year bond futures -- its favored measure -- is the flattest in more than a decade, while the UK’s yield curve briefly inverted earlier this month. Fears of a downturn are sweeping across much of the developed world as investors fret that aggressive policy tightening to tame inflation may put a sharp brake on growth. Bond traders are growing increasingly doubtful that central banks can pull off a soft landing as key indicators such as US business activity and housing show signs of weakness. 

함의: 미국 기업활동이나 주택지표가 무너지는 가운데 투자자들이 침체없이 물가를 통제하는가에 의구심을 가지고 있으며, 장기와 단기 국채 금리 간 역전으로 암시되는 침체의 알람이 미국에서 여타 선진국으로 확장되고 있음.

Pay them and they will come. That appears to the formula for LIV, the new professional golf tour founded by Greg Norman and financed by Saudi Arabia that is pouring money into the sport like never before and drawing defectors from the long-established PGA tour.

함의: 내 꿈은 'P'ㅕㅇ일에 'G'ㅗㄹ프 치는 'A'저씨.

Meme stocks and two-year Treasuries have an inverse relationship. Think of them as leveraged bets on rates that investors buy when they think yields are going to decline. As such, when expectations for rates go up, the price of meme stocks goes down. This happened in May, when the shockingly hot CPI report pushed rates upward — and drove a meme selloff. The graph below shows that rate expectations peaked at exactly the moment when meme stocks hit their trough.

함의: 투기적 매매 집단에 속하는 주식들은 금리하락에 레버리지로 베팅하는 셈, 6월 중순 금리인상 기대가 최고조일 때 반대로 이 주식들은 최저점을 기록함.

The read-through for markets is three-fold. First, the resilience of M&A appetite in the face of elevated macro risks suggests managements remain focused on one of the many key lessons of the pandemic: the importance of strengthening and diversifying business mixes in order to withstand large macro shocks. Second, the low levels of debt funded M&A and the high share of cash only transactions is consistent with our view that a portion of the excess cash that was raised in 2020 and 2021 is being deployed towards unlocking shareholder value via M&A. It also confirms that peak credit quality is likely behind us in IG as net leverage is unlikely to decline further. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of dispersion and individual credit selection.

보고서: 올해 인수합병 거래를 통해 세 가지를 알 수 있는데, I) 바이러스 대확산 시기를 통해 거시충격을 이겨내기 위한 사업 역량 및 다각화의 중요성을 배운 것 같고, II) 2020년과 2021년 쌓아 둔 현금이 시중에 풀리며 레버리지가 적거나 순현금으로 된 인수합병 거래를 만들고 있단 것, III) 투자분산과 개별위험에 더 신중해졌단 것임. (Goldman Sachs - M&A Activity Defies Macro Signals)

The market is changing gears after a report said Russian oil flows via the southern leg of Druzhba pipeline toward Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia were halted on Aug. 4 by Ukraine’s Ukrtransnafta, said Igor Dyomin, a spokesman at Russia’s crude pipeline operator Transneft. Flows were suspended as sanctions prevent Russia’s transit payment, according to Dyomin. Oil has jumped to session high, while US futures and European stocks slipped to session lows. This pipeline is one of the most important for crude exports to Europe, and any disruptions will no doubt add pressure to the already tight market.

함의: 러시아에서 헝가리, 체코, 슬로바키아로 향하는 원유 파이프라인이 중단되었다고 보고되며 장 중 원유 가격은 최고치를, 주가지수선물은 최저치를 기록 중임.

Europe’s bond market is enduring its worst drought in at least 8 years. The market has seen 32 days without a single public debt offering from governments and corporations this year, already surpassing 2018 as the slowest year since records begin in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That tally is certain to rise since activity usually slows markedly during the August vacation season. The steep drop in borrowing reflects uncertainty facing the European economy as rising interest rates, surging inflation and the possibility that Russia could cut off natural gas supplies this winter raise the risks of a recession. That’s made businesses in particular hesitant to run up new debts and driven investors to pull billions from corporate-bond funds as the securities suffer the largest losses since 2008, according to Bloomberg’s Pan-European corporate debt index.

함의: 유럽 발행 시장은 금리, 물가, 러시아의 에너지 등의 경제 불확실성이 경기침체 위험을 높이면서 2014년 집계 이후 가장 오랜 기간 가뭄을 겪고 있음.

Here’s How Flows in Russia’s Druzhba Pipeline Matter for Oil. If such disruptions persist, or is extended to the other leg of the pipeline, this is no doubt bullish for oil, and could have a major impact on the fight to tame inflation.

함의: 이 파이프라인이 계속 중단되면 일이 커짐.

Semiconductor stocks are set to extend their recent underperformance after Micron offered a disappointing forecast. That comes on the heels of a series of warnings about the demand crisis rippling across the industry as customer spending shifts and shrinks. Micron’s market has deteriorated since a prior update just weeks ago, which suggested tech spending was waning. The biggest US maker of memory chips plans to cut capex, too. That follows Monday’s shock warning from Nvidia, which had in turn underscored reports of sharp declines in demand from Intel, Western Digital and others. Still, not all of the latest chips news has been bad. President Biden is set to sign a broad competition bill with $52 billion in domestic semiconductor R&D; US firms are announcing billions in investments. Along with its dour outlook, Micron said it will use anticipated government funding to help it invest $40 billion by the end of the decade to build out manufacturing capacity. And GlobalFoundries revenue beat; that stock is gaining in pre-market trading.

함의: 일련의 반도체 업종 기업들이 줄어드는 수요를 우려하며 투자계획을 축소한다고 발표하고 있음.