Market indicators signaling a coming recession look to be spreading from US Treasuries to bonds worldwide. With a closely-watched section of the Treasuries yield curve already inverted by the most in more than two decades -- a gauge often seen as a harbinger of an economic slowdown -- the gap between short- and long-end New Zealand rates has narrowed to the smallest in seven years. The difference between Australia’s 10- and three-year bond futures -- its favored measure -- is the flattest in more than a decade, while the UK’s yield curve briefly inverted earlier this month. Fears of a downturn are sweeping across much of the developed world as investors fret that aggressive policy tightening to tame inflation may put a sharp brake on growth. Bond traders are growing increasingly doubtful that central banks can pull off a soft landing as key indicators such as US business activity and housing show signs of weakness. 

함의: 미국 기업활동이나 주택지표가 무너지는 가운데 투자자들이 침체없이 물가를 통제하는가에 의구심을 가지고 있으며, 장기와 단기 국채 금리 간 역전으로 암시되는 침체의 알람이 미국에서 여타 선진국으로 확장되고 있음.

Pay them and they will come. That appears to the formula for LIV, the new professional golf tour founded by Greg Norman and financed by Saudi Arabia that is pouring money into the sport like never before and drawing defectors from the long-established PGA tour.

함의: 내 꿈은 'P'ㅕㅇ일에 'G'ㅗㄹ프 치는 'A'저씨.

Meme stocks and two-year Treasuries have an inverse relationship. Think of them as leveraged bets on rates that investors buy when they think yields are going to decline. As such, when expectations for rates go up, the price of meme stocks goes down. This happened in May, when the shockingly hot CPI report pushed rates upward — and drove a meme selloff. The graph below shows that rate expectations peaked at exactly the moment when meme stocks hit their trough.

함의: 투기적 매매 집단에 속하는 주식들은 금리하락에 레버리지로 베팅하는 셈, 6월 중순 금리인상 기대가 최고조일 때 반대로 이 주식들은 최저점을 기록함.

The read-through for markets is three-fold. First, the resilience of M&A appetite in the face of elevated macro risks suggests managements remain focused on one of the many key lessons of the pandemic: the importance of strengthening and diversifying business mixes in order to withstand large macro shocks. Second, the low levels of debt funded M&A and the high share of cash only transactions is consistent with our view that a portion of the excess cash that was raised in 2020 and 2021 is being deployed towards unlocking shareholder value via M&A. It also confirms that peak credit quality is likely behind us in IG as net leverage is unlikely to decline further. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of dispersion and individual credit selection.

보고서: 올해 인수합병 거래를 통해 세 가지를 알 수 있는데, I) 바이러스 대확산 시기를 통해 거시충격을 이겨내기 위한 사업 역량 및 다각화의 중요성을 배운 것 같고, II) 2020년과 2021년 쌓아 둔 현금이 시중에 풀리며 레버리지가 적거나 순현금으로 된 인수합병 거래를 만들고 있단 것, III) 투자분산과 개별위험에 더 신중해졌단 것임. (Goldman Sachs - M&A Activity Defies Macro Signals)

The market is changing gears after a report said Russian oil flows via the southern leg of Druzhba pipeline toward Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia were halted on Aug. 4 by Ukraine’s Ukrtransnafta, said Igor Dyomin, a spokesman at Russia’s crude pipeline operator Transneft. Flows were suspended as sanctions prevent Russia’s transit payment, according to Dyomin. Oil has jumped to session high, while US futures and European stocks slipped to session lows. This pipeline is one of the most important for crude exports to Europe, and any disruptions will no doubt add pressure to the already tight market.

함의: 러시아에서 헝가리, 체코, 슬로바키아로 향하는 원유 파이프라인이 중단되었다고 보고되며 장 중 원유 가격은 최고치를, 주가지수선물은 최저치를 기록 중임.

Europe’s bond market is enduring its worst drought in at least 8 years. The market has seen 32 days without a single public debt offering from governments and corporations this year, already surpassing 2018 as the slowest year since records begin in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That tally is certain to rise since activity usually slows markedly during the August vacation season. The steep drop in borrowing reflects uncertainty facing the European economy as rising interest rates, surging inflation and the possibility that Russia could cut off natural gas supplies this winter raise the risks of a recession. That’s made businesses in particular hesitant to run up new debts and driven investors to pull billions from corporate-bond funds as the securities suffer the largest losses since 2008, according to Bloomberg’s Pan-European corporate debt index.

함의: 유럽 발행 시장은 금리, 물가, 러시아의 에너지 등의 경제 불확실성이 경기침체 위험을 높이면서 2014년 집계 이후 가장 오랜 기간 가뭄을 겪고 있음.

Here’s How Flows in Russia’s Druzhba Pipeline Matter for Oil. If such disruptions persist, or is extended to the other leg of the pipeline, this is no doubt bullish for oil, and could have a major impact on the fight to tame inflation.

함의: 이 파이프라인이 계속 중단되면 일이 커짐.

Semiconductor stocks are set to extend their recent underperformance after Micron offered a disappointing forecast. That comes on the heels of a series of warnings about the demand crisis rippling across the industry as customer spending shifts and shrinks. Micron’s market has deteriorated since a prior update just weeks ago, which suggested tech spending was waning. The biggest US maker of memory chips plans to cut capex, too. That follows Monday’s shock warning from Nvidia, which had in turn underscored reports of sharp declines in demand from Intel, Western Digital and others. Still, not all of the latest chips news has been bad. President Biden is set to sign a broad competition bill with $52 billion in domestic semiconductor R&D; US firms are announcing billions in investments. Along with its dour outlook, Micron said it will use anticipated government funding to help it invest $40 billion by the end of the decade to build out manufacturing capacity. And GlobalFoundries revenue beat; that stock is gaining in pre-market trading.

함의: 일련의 반도체 업종 기업들이 줄어드는 수요를 우려하며 투자계획을 축소한다고 발표하고 있음.

Vanguard Steals BlackRock Crown for World’s Biggest Bond ETF. Vanguard Group has ushered in a new world order in the fixed-income exchange-traded fund arena. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (ticker BND), with assets of roughly $83.8 billion, has surpassed the $83.2 billion iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) to become the world’s biggest bond ETF, Bloomberg data show. 

President Joe Biden signed into law a broad competition bill Tuesday that includes about $52 billion to boost domestic semiconductor research and development, calling it a “once-in-a-generation investment in America itself.”. “We need to make these chips here in America to bring down everyday costs and create jobs,” said Biden at a signing ceremony for the CHIPS and Science Act on the White House South Lawn, joined by executives from US semiconductor firms and congressional leaders. Biden said he had visited the US facility where Javelin missiles were made and said the bill would make the nation less reliant on other countries to provide the advanced chips needed for those weapons systems, as well as other products.

함의: 대통령이 한 말, 일상비용을 낮추고 일자리를 늘리기 위해 '여기 미국에서' 만들어야 한다는 것, 그리고 다른 국가에 '덜 의존하게' 만든다는게 핵심임.

Big earnings misses after the bell from online gaming company Roblox and crypto exchange Coinbase are likely to add to growing concern about the tech sector. Assets on Coinbase’s platform sank 47% in the year, to $96 billion, well below an estimate of $164 billion. Bitcoin, which is correlated with tech stocks, is down ~4% to ~$23,100. Chips stocks took a pounding earlier after a series of macroeconomic warnings (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell the most since mid-June), as did several luxury firms.

함의: Gaming and Crypto Misses Add to Tech Woes.

Nancy Pelosi slammed Xi Jinping on US television, saying he was acting "like a scared bully" after boosting military exercises near Taiwan after her visit. Although she reiterated her trip was meant to reinforce Joe Biden's focus on the region (despite the White House saying the move was Pelosi's alone), it may have hindered the US's effort to galvanize Asia against China. Some governments saw the visit as a step too far, with many staying silent to avoid getting caught in the middle. The trip doesn't change US policy for Taiwan, the Biden administration said.

함의: 미국에 돌아가서도 지정학적 갈등을 높임.

How much further the US Treasury yield curve inverts depends on changes in the expected peak in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, according to Bank of America. “The extent of inversion will depend on the terminal rate, which will likely be a function of inflation,” Meghan Swiber, director of US rates strategy at BofA, said in a report. The two-year Treasury yield exceeded the 10-year by nearly 50 basis points Tuesday, a milestone last seen in August 2000, based on expectations that the Fed’s rate will peak at around 3.5%, from a current range of 2.25%-2.5%. If the expected peak rises a half point to 4% with no change in the market’s assessment of the neutral rate of monetary policy, the curve inversion has scope to 85 basis points, Swiber wrote. If the neutral rate rises as well, a half-point increase in the terminal rate might flatten the curve to only 60 basis points, she wrote.

함의: 국채 수익률 역전은 최종정책금리 3.5%와 현재 금리 사이에서 형성된 것으로, 만일 현재 중립금리에서 최종정책금리에 대한 기대가 4%까지 오를 경우 역전폭은 -85bp까지 확대될 수 있고, 중립금리와 함께 오른다면 -60bp 수준으로 확대될 수 있음.