그녀는 터미날 레잇이 물가와 고용을 리어쎄싱하며 오를테니 커브 플랫 베팅을 이어가라 합니다.
BofA said clients should “hold curve flattening positions until inflation and employment data moderate, given possible further upward re-pricing of the terminal rate.”
BofA said clients should “hold curve flattening positions until inflation and employment data moderate, given possible further upward re-pricing of the terminal rate.”
Company managements continue to express concern over the risk of recession. Elevated inflation and rising interest rates were headwinds to economic activity in 2Q. Some companies do not expect these headwinds to materially abate until 2023, prompting them to prepare for the possibility of a broader slowdown in the economy. While most management teams recognize a period of slower growth is needed to cool price pressures, some have expressed uncertainty around how severe the impact of a recession would be for their earnings. Profit margins remained a top priority for company managements in 2Q. On last quarter's earnings calls, firms highlighted rising input costs as one of the largest headwinds to their earnings. 2Q earnings calls have revealed that input costs remain a key issue for managements, particularly as economic growth has started to slow and focus has once again turned to margin stability over sales and earnings growth. As financial conditions tighten and recession risk continues to materialize, firms are rethinking the pace of hiring. In previous quarter's earnings calls, managements expressed a desire to ramp up hiring despite soaring labor costs and a tight labor market. This quarter, however, several firms have shifted their stance on the volume and pace of hiring. Most notably, several large Information Technology firms have signaled they will taper the pace of hiring and some have instituted outright hiring freezes. While news about slower hiring at tech firms has dominated headlines, managements across all sectors are rethinking their hiring plans for the remainder of the year. Despite multiple firms already pulling back on hiring, some continue to push forward with growing their headcount, and continue to express concern over labor market tightness.
보고서: 미국 기업 실적발표 이후 컨퍼런스콜의 주요 주제를 종합해보면, I) 경기침체에 대한 위험을 심각하게 고려하고, 2023년까지 지속될 것으로 보는 기업도 상당수, II) 투입비용 상승에 따른 이익률 관리에 어려움을 성토하는 기업이 많았으며, III) 역풍을 맞는 환경에서도 고용을 늘리려던 태도가 이번 분기 고용 축소로 바뀐 것이 특징적이었음. (Goldman Sachs - 3 themes from 2Q 2022 conference calls: Recession risk, margins, and the labor market)
보고서: 미국 기업 실적발표 이후 컨퍼런스콜의 주요 주제를 종합해보면, I) 경기침체에 대한 위험을 심각하게 고려하고, 2023년까지 지속될 것으로 보는 기업도 상당수, II) 투입비용 상승에 따른 이익률 관리에 어려움을 성토하는 기업이 많았으며, III) 역풍을 맞는 환경에서도 고용을 늘리려던 태도가 이번 분기 고용 축소로 바뀐 것이 특징적이었음. (Goldman Sachs - 3 themes from 2Q 2022 conference calls: Recession risk, margins, and the labor market)
Elon Musk sold 3.3 million more Tesla shares, according to two Form 4 filings. The transaction reduced the directly owned shares to about 160 million shares.
Bottom-line: 물가를 통제하기 위해 더 높은 금리를 더 오래 유지할 준비가 되어있고, 올해 연말까지 3.75%~4.0%까지 금리인상 후 추이를 지켜보고 싶었다고 함.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed will be prepared to hold interest rates “higher for longer” should inflation continue to surprise to the upside. “I was a bit hoping that we could get (rates) to 3.75% to 4% this year and then sort of see what was happening during the winter, in the first quarter of next year, and make a judgment at that point about whether more rate increases were needed,” he told the MNI FedSpeak podcast. “If we do get inflation slowing down, then we may be able to hold the rate at that higher rate for that period of time”. “It’s too early to make the claim” that inflation has peaked.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed will be prepared to hold interest rates “higher for longer” should inflation continue to surprise to the upside. “I was a bit hoping that we could get (rates) to 3.75% to 4% this year and then sort of see what was happening during the winter, in the first quarter of next year, and make a judgment at that point about whether more rate increases were needed,” he told the MNI FedSpeak podcast. “If we do get inflation slowing down, then we may be able to hold the rate at that higher rate for that period of time”. “It’s too early to make the claim” that inflation has peaked.
Bottom-line: 중국 소비자 물가가 2년래 최고치를 기록하며 빠르게 상승, 경기부양을 해야하는 정부에 고민을 더함.
China’s consumer inflation accelerated in July to the highest level in two years, complicating Beijing’s efforts to get its Covid-hit economy back on track with more stimulus. The consumer price index rose 2.7% last month from a year earlier, missing economists’ expectations of a 2.9% gain, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday. That is the strongest pace since July 2020 and compares with 2.5% growth in June.
China’s consumer inflation accelerated in July to the highest level in two years, complicating Beijing’s efforts to get its Covid-hit economy back on track with more stimulus. The consumer price index rose 2.7% last month from a year earlier, missing economists’ expectations of a 2.9% gain, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday. That is the strongest pace since July 2020 and compares with 2.5% growth in June.
Bottom-line: 마켓컬리 덕분에 싱가폴에서 한국의 요리를 주문할 수 있게 됨.
Market Kurly became South Korea’s first billion-dollar online grocery app by delivering fresh produce to customers’ doorsteps by dawn the next day. Now it’s expanding to Singapore by offering products on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s RedMart. Singaporeans will be able to buy Market Kurly’s ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat meals from Wednesday via the app, owned by Alibaba unit Lazada. They include frozen snacks and Korean-style cold soba from Gwanghwamun Mijin, a storied decades-old restaurant in Seoul. The initial launch of 44 products will be gradually expanded to chilled food and possibly non-food daily products in the future, Market Kurly Chief Executive Officer Sophie Kim said.
Market Kurly became South Korea’s first billion-dollar online grocery app by delivering fresh produce to customers’ doorsteps by dawn the next day. Now it’s expanding to Singapore by offering products on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s RedMart. Singaporeans will be able to buy Market Kurly’s ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat meals from Wednesday via the app, owned by Alibaba unit Lazada. They include frozen snacks and Korean-style cold soba from Gwanghwamun Mijin, a storied decades-old restaurant in Seoul. The initial launch of 44 products will be gradually expanded to chilled food and possibly non-food daily products in the future, Market Kurly Chief Executive Officer Sophie Kim said.
Bottom-line: 8월 12일이면 라인강의 수심이 임계점인 40cm 아래로 낮아질 것으로 예상되며, 이곳을 이용하던 철에서 기름까지 다양한 것의 운반이 어려워질 것임.
The Rhine River is set to become virtually impassable at a key transit point in Germany on Aug. 12, as shallow water along the river restricts shipments of energy products and other industrial commodities. The marker at Kaub, west of Frankfurt, is forecast to drop to as low as 38cm, below the critical depth of 40cm, on Aug. 12, according to the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. At that water level, it becomes uneconomical for barges that haul everything from fuels to iron to transit the waypoint, a representative of Germany’s Federal Institute for Hydrology previously said.
The Rhine River is set to become virtually impassable at a key transit point in Germany on Aug. 12, as shallow water along the river restricts shipments of energy products and other industrial commodities. The marker at Kaub, west of Frankfurt, is forecast to drop to as low as 38cm, below the critical depth of 40cm, on Aug. 12, according to the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. At that water level, it becomes uneconomical for barges that haul everything from fuels to iron to transit the waypoint, a representative of Germany’s Federal Institute for Hydrology previously said.
Bottom-line: 시장이 주목하는 헤드라인 지표 외에 부수적인 데이터를 주의깊게 살펴봐야 하는데, 단위노동비용은 기업의 이익률에 영향을 주며, 역사적으로 단위노동비용과 주가수익비율은 역의 관계를 가짐. 1982년 이후 가장 빠르게 상승 중인 노동비용에 따른 배수 재평가도 필요함.
To make sure some important second-tier data on prices and the labor market don’t get forgotten in the rush on July US inflation numbers, let me point out that unit labor cost figures for the second quarter show the fastest year-on-year rise since 1982. Higher wage pressure and a problem maintaining productivity will do that. That suggests that risks of a wage-price spiral remain intact. It also suggests that price/earnings multiples for stocks are at present way over-optimistic. Over time, growth in unit labor costs and earnings multiples have had a strong inverse relationship — if labor costs are rising fast, all else equal, you should expect multiples to drop. Why isn’t the market re-rating stocks this way? The concern about labor costs is primarily about profit margins. If companies can pass those costs on to customers in higher prices, and maintain those margins, then there’s less need to cut their valuation. And one of the most important points to emerge from the second-quarter earnings season is that companies do indeed have pricing power.
To make sure some important second-tier data on prices and the labor market don’t get forgotten in the rush on July US inflation numbers, let me point out that unit labor cost figures for the second quarter show the fastest year-on-year rise since 1982. Higher wage pressure and a problem maintaining productivity will do that. That suggests that risks of a wage-price spiral remain intact. It also suggests that price/earnings multiples for stocks are at present way over-optimistic. Over time, growth in unit labor costs and earnings multiples have had a strong inverse relationship — if labor costs are rising fast, all else equal, you should expect multiples to drop. Why isn’t the market re-rating stocks this way? The concern about labor costs is primarily about profit margins. If companies can pass those costs on to customers in higher prices, and maintain those margins, then there’s less need to cut their valuation. And one of the most important points to emerge from the second-quarter earnings season is that companies do indeed have pricing power.
Bottom-line: 러시아는 성공적으로 에너지를 무기화했고, 그 어떤 지표로 봐도 에너지 부문에서 승리하고 있음. 11월이 되면 러시아 에너지 제재로 인해 유럽은 더욱 어려운 길에 놓일 것임.
No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies. Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies; Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies.
No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies. Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies; Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies.
Bottom-line: 입금.
Hungary’s biggest refiner said it has paid Russia’s transit fee to Ukraine to resolve a dispute that has led to a halt in oil flows to central Europe. Mol Nyrt., the oil company that sought to unblock supplies, said Ukraine and Russia have both accepted its decision to step in to settle the transfer fees.
Hungary’s biggest refiner said it has paid Russia’s transit fee to Ukraine to resolve a dispute that has led to a halt in oil flows to central Europe. Mol Nyrt., the oil company that sought to unblock supplies, said Ukraine and Russia have both accepted its decision to step in to settle the transfer fees.
Finally a suggestion that inflation might have peaked. Big move in 2-years! Moving down 17 basis points.
Bottom-line: 원자재 가격 및 물가기대에 더해 예상치를 하회한 물가에도 불구 금리인상 종지부에는 충분치 않아 보이는데, 임금이 오르고 생산성이 떨어지는 상황에서 인플레이션과 싸움이 끝이란 신호를 보내고 싶어하지 않을 것.
Soft July CPI Not Enough For a Dovish Fed Pivot. The soft July CPI report adds to some recent favorable inflation news such as the fall in commodity prices and inflation expectations. That gives markets reasons to bet on a dovish Fed pivot -- but those bets would come at a cost; easing financial conditions mean the central bank will have to do more to produce the tightening it desires. With wages accelerating and productivity falling, the Fed is also unlikely to want to signal its inflation fight is close to accomplished.
Soft July CPI Not Enough For a Dovish Fed Pivot. The soft July CPI report adds to some recent favorable inflation news such as the fall in commodity prices and inflation expectations. That gives markets reasons to bet on a dovish Fed pivot -- but those bets would come at a cost; easing financial conditions mean the central bank will have to do more to produce the tightening it desires. With wages accelerating and productivity falling, the Fed is also unlikely to want to signal its inflation fight is close to accomplished.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 9월 금리인상 폭에 대한 기대는 50bp(59bp)로 급격하게 이동하며 주가지수는 급등, 국채수익률은 급락함.
Stocks surged, while bond yields tumbled as softer-than-estimated inflation figures suggested that prices may have peaked, bolstering speculation on a smaller pace of Federal Reserve hikes. Swaps showed the amount of tightening priced for the Fed’s Sept. 21 decision tumbling to around 59 basis points, suggesting a move of 50 basis points is seen as more likely than a shift of 75 basis points. The consumer price index increased 8.5% in July from a year earlier, cooling from the 9.1% June advance that was the largest in four decades. Prices were unchanged from the prior month. A decline in gasoline offset increases in food and shelter costs.
Stocks surged, while bond yields tumbled as softer-than-estimated inflation figures suggested that prices may have peaked, bolstering speculation on a smaller pace of Federal Reserve hikes. Swaps showed the amount of tightening priced for the Fed’s Sept. 21 decision tumbling to around 59 basis points, suggesting a move of 50 basis points is seen as more likely than a shift of 75 basis points. The consumer price index increased 8.5% in July from a year earlier, cooling from the 9.1% June advance that was the largest in four decades. Prices were unchanged from the prior month. A decline in gasoline offset increases in food and shelter costs.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행 인사 중 오랜기간 가장 비둘기였던 그는 이제 가장 매가 되어있었는데, 정책금리를 올해 말까지 3.9%, 내년까지 4.4%로 올려야 하며 바뀐 것은 없다고 수요일 발언함.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, for a long time the US central bank’s biggest dove, is now its biggest hawk. Kashkari said that he wants to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to 3.9% by the end of this year, and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. That makes him the most hawkish participant on the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, according to the so-called “dot plot” of interest-rate projections published after the central bank’s June policy meeting. “In June, in the Summary of Economic Projections, where all of the FOMC participants put in their own projections of interest rates for the next few years, I recommended being at 3.9% by the end of this year, and 4.4% by the end of the following year,” Kashkari said at an Aspen Institute event Wednesday. “I haven’t seen anything that changes that.”. It’s a complete 180-degree turnaround for Kashkari, who prior to the pandemic was the Fed’s most outspoken dovish official.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, for a long time the US central bank’s biggest dove, is now its biggest hawk. Kashkari said that he wants to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to 3.9% by the end of this year, and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. That makes him the most hawkish participant on the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, according to the so-called “dot plot” of interest-rate projections published after the central bank’s June policy meeting. “In June, in the Summary of Economic Projections, where all of the FOMC participants put in their own projections of interest rates for the next few years, I recommended being at 3.9% by the end of this year, and 4.4% by the end of the following year,” Kashkari said at an Aspen Institute event Wednesday. “I haven’t seen anything that changes that.”. It’s a complete 180-degree turnaround for Kashkari, who prior to the pandemic was the Fed’s most outspoken dovish official.