Bottom-line: 러시아는 성공적으로 에너지를 무기화했고, 그 어떤 지표로 봐도 에너지 부문에서 승리하고 있음. 11월이 되면 러시아 에너지 제재로 인해 유럽은 더욱 어려운 길에 놓일 것임.
No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies. Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies; Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies.
No matter what indicator you use, Russian President Vladimir Putin is winning in the energy markets. Moscow is milking its oil cash cow, earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and buy domestic support for the war. Once European sanctions against Russian crude exports kick in from November, the region’s governments will face some tough choices as the energy crisis starts to bite consumers and companies. Electricity costs for homes and businesses are set to soar from October, as the surge in oil income allows Putin to sacrifice gas revenue and squeeze supplies to Europe. UK prices are likely to jump by 75%, while in Germany some municipal utilities have already warned prices will increase in excess of 100%. Russia has successfully weaponized energy supplies; Western governments will come under increasing pressure to spend billions either subsidizing household bills or, as is already the case in France, by taking control of power companies.
Bottom-line: 입금.
Hungary’s biggest refiner said it has paid Russia’s transit fee to Ukraine to resolve a dispute that has led to a halt in oil flows to central Europe. Mol Nyrt., the oil company that sought to unblock supplies, said Ukraine and Russia have both accepted its decision to step in to settle the transfer fees.
Hungary’s biggest refiner said it has paid Russia’s transit fee to Ukraine to resolve a dispute that has led to a halt in oil flows to central Europe. Mol Nyrt., the oil company that sought to unblock supplies, said Ukraine and Russia have both accepted its decision to step in to settle the transfer fees.
Finally a suggestion that inflation might have peaked. Big move in 2-years! Moving down 17 basis points.
Bottom-line: 원자재 가격 및 물가기대에 더해 예상치를 하회한 물가에도 불구 금리인상 종지부에는 충분치 않아 보이는데, 임금이 오르고 생산성이 떨어지는 상황에서 인플레이션과 싸움이 끝이란 신호를 보내고 싶어하지 않을 것.
Soft July CPI Not Enough For a Dovish Fed Pivot. The soft July CPI report adds to some recent favorable inflation news such as the fall in commodity prices and inflation expectations. That gives markets reasons to bet on a dovish Fed pivot -- but those bets would come at a cost; easing financial conditions mean the central bank will have to do more to produce the tightening it desires. With wages accelerating and productivity falling, the Fed is also unlikely to want to signal its inflation fight is close to accomplished.
Soft July CPI Not Enough For a Dovish Fed Pivot. The soft July CPI report adds to some recent favorable inflation news such as the fall in commodity prices and inflation expectations. That gives markets reasons to bet on a dovish Fed pivot -- but those bets would come at a cost; easing financial conditions mean the central bank will have to do more to produce the tightening it desires. With wages accelerating and productivity falling, the Fed is also unlikely to want to signal its inflation fight is close to accomplished.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 9월 금리인상 폭에 대한 기대는 50bp(59bp)로 급격하게 이동하며 주가지수는 급등, 국채수익률은 급락함.
Stocks surged, while bond yields tumbled as softer-than-estimated inflation figures suggested that prices may have peaked, bolstering speculation on a smaller pace of Federal Reserve hikes. Swaps showed the amount of tightening priced for the Fed’s Sept. 21 decision tumbling to around 59 basis points, suggesting a move of 50 basis points is seen as more likely than a shift of 75 basis points. The consumer price index increased 8.5% in July from a year earlier, cooling from the 9.1% June advance that was the largest in four decades. Prices were unchanged from the prior month. A decline in gasoline offset increases in food and shelter costs.
Stocks surged, while bond yields tumbled as softer-than-estimated inflation figures suggested that prices may have peaked, bolstering speculation on a smaller pace of Federal Reserve hikes. Swaps showed the amount of tightening priced for the Fed’s Sept. 21 decision tumbling to around 59 basis points, suggesting a move of 50 basis points is seen as more likely than a shift of 75 basis points. The consumer price index increased 8.5% in July from a year earlier, cooling from the 9.1% June advance that was the largest in four decades. Prices were unchanged from the prior month. A decline in gasoline offset increases in food and shelter costs.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행 인사 중 오랜기간 가장 비둘기였던 그는 이제 가장 매가 되어있었는데, 정책금리를 올해 말까지 3.9%, 내년까지 4.4%로 올려야 하며 바뀐 것은 없다고 수요일 발언함.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, for a long time the US central bank’s biggest dove, is now its biggest hawk. Kashkari said that he wants to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to 3.9% by the end of this year, and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. That makes him the most hawkish participant on the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, according to the so-called “dot plot” of interest-rate projections published after the central bank’s June policy meeting. “In June, in the Summary of Economic Projections, where all of the FOMC participants put in their own projections of interest rates for the next few years, I recommended being at 3.9% by the end of this year, and 4.4% by the end of the following year,” Kashkari said at an Aspen Institute event Wednesday. “I haven’t seen anything that changes that.”. It’s a complete 180-degree turnaround for Kashkari, who prior to the pandemic was the Fed’s most outspoken dovish official.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, for a long time the US central bank’s biggest dove, is now its biggest hawk. Kashkari said that he wants to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to 3.9% by the end of this year, and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. That makes him the most hawkish participant on the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, according to the so-called “dot plot” of interest-rate projections published after the central bank’s June policy meeting. “In June, in the Summary of Economic Projections, where all of the FOMC participants put in their own projections of interest rates for the next few years, I recommended being at 3.9% by the end of this year, and 4.4% by the end of the following year,” Kashkari said at an Aspen Institute event Wednesday. “I haven’t seen anything that changes that.”. It’s a complete 180-degree turnaround for Kashkari, who prior to the pandemic was the Fed’s most outspoken dovish official.
Bottom-line: 이번 랠리는 헤지펀드의 가차없는 주식 처분, 공모펀드의 현금으로의 쏠림 속에 일어났고, 펀더멘탈 보다 심리적이고 기술적인 상승에 가까움. 누군가는 이 상승에 동참하지 못함에 공포를 가질 수도 있음.
Nobody saw it coming, and now everyone wants in. That’s a nutshell synopsis of how an improbable equity market bounce is threatening to become a meltup. Hedge funds slashed stocks, mutual funds flocked to cash, and even hard-to-daunt retail traders reined in their glee, draining the market of sellers and creating a backdrop where the slightest good news forced everyone back. That’s what investors got Wednesday, news inflation had cooled -- slightly -- from a generational high. The result was a dash back into risk assets as well as short-dated government bonds, with both markets interpreting July’s consumer price index as giving the Federal Reserve room to breathe in coming months. “It was more a sentiment rally and technical rally than anything to do with fundamentals or macro,” said Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth. “Some will worry about FOMO. We will be patient.”
Nobody saw it coming, and now everyone wants in. That’s a nutshell synopsis of how an improbable equity market bounce is threatening to become a meltup. Hedge funds slashed stocks, mutual funds flocked to cash, and even hard-to-daunt retail traders reined in their glee, draining the market of sellers and creating a backdrop where the slightest good news forced everyone back. That’s what investors got Wednesday, news inflation had cooled -- slightly -- from a generational high. The result was a dash back into risk assets as well as short-dated government bonds, with both markets interpreting July’s consumer price index as giving the Federal Reserve room to breathe in coming months. “It was more a sentiment rally and technical rally than anything to do with fundamentals or macro,” said Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth. “Some will worry about FOMO. We will be patient.”
Bottom-line: 자사주 매입에 대한 세금은 기업에게 주주환원으로 배당을 더 선호하게 할 수 있음. 다만, 기업 이익이 줄어들 때 자사주 매입과 달리 배당은 축소하기 어려우며, 이는 투자등급에 있는 기업들의 신용위험을 키울 수도 있음.
Tax changes working their way through Congress may ultimately boost dividend payments and erode cash flow, boosting credit risk for US investment-grade companies. A 1% excise levy on share buybacks -- part of a tax and climate package -- has passed the Senate and will head to the House for a vote later this week. It applies broadly to investment-grade companies that do large share buybacks, according to strategists. The tax could shift preferences at the margin from buybacks, which are more temporary, to dividend payouts, which tend to be more sustained, said Keith Parker, an equity strategist at UBS. “If earnings go down by 50%, it’s easy to stop your buyback program,” said Parker. “It’s not easy to cut a dividend. The more quarters you pay a dividend, the less cash you have and then the greater the credit risk.”
Tax changes working their way through Congress may ultimately boost dividend payments and erode cash flow, boosting credit risk for US investment-grade companies. A 1% excise levy on share buybacks -- part of a tax and climate package -- has passed the Senate and will head to the House for a vote later this week. It applies broadly to investment-grade companies that do large share buybacks, according to strategists. The tax could shift preferences at the margin from buybacks, which are more temporary, to dividend payouts, which tend to be more sustained, said Keith Parker, an equity strategist at UBS. “If earnings go down by 50%, it’s easy to stop your buyback program,” said Parker. “It’s not easy to cut a dividend. The more quarters you pay a dividend, the less cash you have and then the greater the credit risk.”
Bottom-line: 사랑하지만 넌 해고야라고 한 뒤 링크드인에 울면서 동정을 사는 낚시가 성행 중.
‘Crying CEO’ Says He Loves His Employees, Even Those He Laid Off. There’s a new way to cope with the guilt of firing your employees -- a LinkedIn post letting your network know you feel miserable about it. Braden Wallake, the chief executive officer of a Columbus, Ohio-based marketing agency called HyperSocial, wrote a guilt-filled post Tuesday about laying off employees that concluded with a teary-eyed selfie. After the post went viral, he declared himself “the crying CEO.". Wallake’s original post has more than 30,000 likes and 5,300 comments. In it, he said he loves all of his employees, acknowledged how his own decisions led to the dismissals and said it was the “hardest thing” he has ever had to do. Comments criticized Wallake’s post, calling it a PR stunt and saying he was fishing for sympathy. Some expressed support for the move and suggested he shouldn’t be a victim of “cancel culture.” “There’s been a lot of backlash, but there’s also been a lot of support,” Wallake said in a phone interview.
‘Crying CEO’ Says He Loves His Employees, Even Those He Laid Off. There’s a new way to cope with the guilt of firing your employees -- a LinkedIn post letting your network know you feel miserable about it. Braden Wallake, the chief executive officer of a Columbus, Ohio-based marketing agency called HyperSocial, wrote a guilt-filled post Tuesday about laying off employees that concluded with a teary-eyed selfie. After the post went viral, he declared himself “the crying CEO.". Wallake’s original post has more than 30,000 likes and 5,300 comments. In it, he said he loves all of his employees, acknowledged how his own decisions led to the dismissals and said it was the “hardest thing” he has ever had to do. Comments criticized Wallake’s post, calling it a PR stunt and saying he was fishing for sympathy. Some expressed support for the move and suggested he shouldn’t be a victim of “cancel culture.” “There’s been a lot of backlash, but there’s also been a lot of support,” Wallake said in a phone interview.
Bottom-line: Price Maker.
Walt Disney Co. is raising the price of its flagship Disney+ streaming service by 38%, part of a plan to generate more revenue for its money-losing online businesses and build on third-quarter results that beat estimates for sales, profit and subscriber growth.
Walt Disney Co. is raising the price of its flagship Disney+ streaming service by 38%, part of a plan to generate more revenue for its money-losing online businesses and build on third-quarter results that beat estimates for sales, profit and subscriber growth.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건은 지속하기 어려운 랠리에서 유동성이 낮은 채권을 좋은 가격에 매도할 기회라 보고, 모건스탠리는 현재에서 더 많은 비중을 쌓을 때라 주장하고 있음. 물가지표 이후 위험자산 랠리는 이어지며 신흥국 스프레드가 축소되며 수익을 회복했지만 여전히 연 초 이후 -17%로 1994년 이후 최악의 해를 보내는 중임.
While JPMorgan Chase & Co. is urging investors to use an “unsustainable” rally in emerging-market bonds to ditch debt from some of the riskiest corners of the world, Morgan Stanley is recommending they pile up on it. A lower-than-expected US inflation reading released Wednesday should support developing-nation bonds, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Simon Waever wrote in a note, turning bullish on sovereign credit for the first time since November 2020. Just a day before, JPMorgan strategists led by Trang Nguyen said the recent rebound in the asset class won’t last long, suggesting clients dump less liquid names at opportunistic prices and buy cheaper hedges to protect against selloffs. The latest inflation data from the US spurred a risk rally as traders reduced Federal Reserve tightening wagers. The extra yield investors demand to hold emerging-market sovereign debt over US Treasuries narrowed Wednesday, extending the trend since mid-July, when spreads on the JPMorgan index peaked at the highest levels in over two years. The strong performance in the last weeks has helped the gauge trim some losses. It’s still down almost 17% in 2022 and on course for its worst year since 1994 as investors fret the era of easy money ending will result in a cascade of defaults from struggling emerging nations.
While JPMorgan Chase & Co. is urging investors to use an “unsustainable” rally in emerging-market bonds to ditch debt from some of the riskiest corners of the world, Morgan Stanley is recommending they pile up on it. A lower-than-expected US inflation reading released Wednesday should support developing-nation bonds, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Simon Waever wrote in a note, turning bullish on sovereign credit for the first time since November 2020. Just a day before, JPMorgan strategists led by Trang Nguyen said the recent rebound in the asset class won’t last long, suggesting clients dump less liquid names at opportunistic prices and buy cheaper hedges to protect against selloffs. The latest inflation data from the US spurred a risk rally as traders reduced Federal Reserve tightening wagers. The extra yield investors demand to hold emerging-market sovereign debt over US Treasuries narrowed Wednesday, extending the trend since mid-July, when spreads on the JPMorgan index peaked at the highest levels in over two years. The strong performance in the last weeks has helped the gauge trim some losses. It’s still down almost 17% in 2022 and on course for its worst year since 1994 as investors fret the era of easy money ending will result in a cascade of defaults from struggling emerging nations.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 통제하고 있다고 섣불리 말하긴 어렵고 이를 위한 일은 지속할 것이나, 세번 연속 75bp 인상보다 9월은 50bp 인상이 적절해보인다 발언하며 중앙은행 인사 중 처음으로 속도조절에 대해 언급함.
It is far too early for the US central bank to “declare victory” in its fight against elevated inflation, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said in an interview with the Financial Times. While she didn’t rule out a third straight 0.75 ppt rate rise at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, she signaled initial support for a slowdown in the pace of its interest rate increases. Says 0.5 ppt rate rise in September is her “baseline”. Daly on Wednesday maintained that rates should rise to just under 3.5% by the end of the year, a level that constrains business and consumer activity. “Inflation remains far too high and not near our price stability goal, This is why we don’t want to declare victory on inflation coming down. We’re not near done yet”.
It is far too early for the US central bank to “declare victory” in its fight against elevated inflation, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said in an interview with the Financial Times. While she didn’t rule out a third straight 0.75 ppt rate rise at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, she signaled initial support for a slowdown in the pace of its interest rate increases. Says 0.5 ppt rate rise in September is her “baseline”. Daly on Wednesday maintained that rates should rise to just under 3.5% by the end of the year, a level that constrains business and consumer activity. “Inflation remains far too high and not near our price stability goal, This is why we don’t want to declare victory on inflation coming down. We’re not near done yet”.
Bottom-line: 주식시장은 기관 중심의 비중축소 상태에서 중소형주와 기술주, 그리고 공매도가 많은 밈 주식 중심으로 랠리(혹은 Short covering)를 이어가고 있으나 두 가지 위험인 I) 중앙은행 인사들의 금리인상 지속 의지 발언, II) 기술 기업들의 어두운 이익전망이 추가적 상승에 의구심을 갖게하며, 52주 신고가 비율 또한 낮다는게 주의할 부분임.
Institutional positioning on risk assets is at a very low level, which might prompt a short-covering rally on any good news. But she is still doubtful the market could reach the previous highs in near term. This is a view that I echo. We see the softer-than expected CPI report prompted a market rally, especially in small cap and tech sectors - and we are also seeing some short covering in meme stocks as well as short end of the Treasury curve. While there is room for further upside, two major risks on the horizon will likely put a cap to a full-on risk rally. The Fed hiking cycle is still happening in earnest and -- contrary to market pricing -- recent Fedspeak seems to be dismissing the possibility of a rate cut next year. Meanwhile, chip companies are warning that earnings will be revised lower on weaker demand, dampening the outlook on the fundamental picture on stocks. As this chart shows, there are few 52-week highs in global stock markets, making the case for testing records an unlikely one.
Institutional positioning on risk assets is at a very low level, which might prompt a short-covering rally on any good news. But she is still doubtful the market could reach the previous highs in near term. This is a view that I echo. We see the softer-than expected CPI report prompted a market rally, especially in small cap and tech sectors - and we are also seeing some short covering in meme stocks as well as short end of the Treasury curve. While there is room for further upside, two major risks on the horizon will likely put a cap to a full-on risk rally. The Fed hiking cycle is still happening in earnest and -- contrary to market pricing -- recent Fedspeak seems to be dismissing the possibility of a rate cut next year. Meanwhile, chip companies are warning that earnings will be revised lower on weaker demand, dampening the outlook on the fundamental picture on stocks. As this chart shows, there are few 52-week highs in global stock markets, making the case for testing records an unlikely one.