Bottom-line: 이번 랠리는 헤지펀드의 가차없는 주식 처분, 공모펀드의 현금으로의 쏠림 속에 일어났고, 펀더멘탈 보다 심리적이고 기술적인 상승에 가까움. 누군가는 이 상승에 동참하지 못함에 공포를 가질 수도 있음.
Nobody saw it coming, and now everyone wants in. That’s a nutshell synopsis of how an improbable equity market bounce is threatening to become a meltup. Hedge funds slashed stocks, mutual funds flocked to cash, and even hard-to-daunt retail traders reined in their glee, draining the market of sellers and creating a backdrop where the slightest good news forced everyone back. That’s what investors got Wednesday, news inflation had cooled -- slightly -- from a generational high. The result was a dash back into risk assets as well as short-dated government bonds, with both markets interpreting July’s consumer price index as giving the Federal Reserve room to breathe in coming months. “It was more a sentiment rally and technical rally than anything to do with fundamentals or macro,” said Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth. “Some will worry about FOMO. We will be patient.”
Nobody saw it coming, and now everyone wants in. That’s a nutshell synopsis of how an improbable equity market bounce is threatening to become a meltup. Hedge funds slashed stocks, mutual funds flocked to cash, and even hard-to-daunt retail traders reined in their glee, draining the market of sellers and creating a backdrop where the slightest good news forced everyone back. That’s what investors got Wednesday, news inflation had cooled -- slightly -- from a generational high. The result was a dash back into risk assets as well as short-dated government bonds, with both markets interpreting July’s consumer price index as giving the Federal Reserve room to breathe in coming months. “It was more a sentiment rally and technical rally than anything to do with fundamentals or macro,” said Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth. “Some will worry about FOMO. We will be patient.”
Bottom-line: 자사주 매입에 대한 세금은 기업에게 주주환원으로 배당을 더 선호하게 할 수 있음. 다만, 기업 이익이 줄어들 때 자사주 매입과 달리 배당은 축소하기 어려우며, 이는 투자등급에 있는 기업들의 신용위험을 키울 수도 있음.
Tax changes working their way through Congress may ultimately boost dividend payments and erode cash flow, boosting credit risk for US investment-grade companies. A 1% excise levy on share buybacks -- part of a tax and climate package -- has passed the Senate and will head to the House for a vote later this week. It applies broadly to investment-grade companies that do large share buybacks, according to strategists. The tax could shift preferences at the margin from buybacks, which are more temporary, to dividend payouts, which tend to be more sustained, said Keith Parker, an equity strategist at UBS. “If earnings go down by 50%, it’s easy to stop your buyback program,” said Parker. “It’s not easy to cut a dividend. The more quarters you pay a dividend, the less cash you have and then the greater the credit risk.”
Tax changes working their way through Congress may ultimately boost dividend payments and erode cash flow, boosting credit risk for US investment-grade companies. A 1% excise levy on share buybacks -- part of a tax and climate package -- has passed the Senate and will head to the House for a vote later this week. It applies broadly to investment-grade companies that do large share buybacks, according to strategists. The tax could shift preferences at the margin from buybacks, which are more temporary, to dividend payouts, which tend to be more sustained, said Keith Parker, an equity strategist at UBS. “If earnings go down by 50%, it’s easy to stop your buyback program,” said Parker. “It’s not easy to cut a dividend. The more quarters you pay a dividend, the less cash you have and then the greater the credit risk.”
Bottom-line: 사랑하지만 넌 해고야라고 한 뒤 링크드인에 울면서 동정을 사는 낚시가 성행 중.
‘Crying CEO’ Says He Loves His Employees, Even Those He Laid Off. There’s a new way to cope with the guilt of firing your employees -- a LinkedIn post letting your network know you feel miserable about it. Braden Wallake, the chief executive officer of a Columbus, Ohio-based marketing agency called HyperSocial, wrote a guilt-filled post Tuesday about laying off employees that concluded with a teary-eyed selfie. After the post went viral, he declared himself “the crying CEO.". Wallake’s original post has more than 30,000 likes and 5,300 comments. In it, he said he loves all of his employees, acknowledged how his own decisions led to the dismissals and said it was the “hardest thing” he has ever had to do. Comments criticized Wallake’s post, calling it a PR stunt and saying he was fishing for sympathy. Some expressed support for the move and suggested he shouldn’t be a victim of “cancel culture.” “There’s been a lot of backlash, but there’s also been a lot of support,” Wallake said in a phone interview.
‘Crying CEO’ Says He Loves His Employees, Even Those He Laid Off. There’s a new way to cope with the guilt of firing your employees -- a LinkedIn post letting your network know you feel miserable about it. Braden Wallake, the chief executive officer of a Columbus, Ohio-based marketing agency called HyperSocial, wrote a guilt-filled post Tuesday about laying off employees that concluded with a teary-eyed selfie. After the post went viral, he declared himself “the crying CEO.". Wallake’s original post has more than 30,000 likes and 5,300 comments. In it, he said he loves all of his employees, acknowledged how his own decisions led to the dismissals and said it was the “hardest thing” he has ever had to do. Comments criticized Wallake’s post, calling it a PR stunt and saying he was fishing for sympathy. Some expressed support for the move and suggested he shouldn’t be a victim of “cancel culture.” “There’s been a lot of backlash, but there’s also been a lot of support,” Wallake said in a phone interview.
Bottom-line: Price Maker.
Walt Disney Co. is raising the price of its flagship Disney+ streaming service by 38%, part of a plan to generate more revenue for its money-losing online businesses and build on third-quarter results that beat estimates for sales, profit and subscriber growth.
Walt Disney Co. is raising the price of its flagship Disney+ streaming service by 38%, part of a plan to generate more revenue for its money-losing online businesses and build on third-quarter results that beat estimates for sales, profit and subscriber growth.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건은 지속하기 어려운 랠리에서 유동성이 낮은 채권을 좋은 가격에 매도할 기회라 보고, 모건스탠리는 현재에서 더 많은 비중을 쌓을 때라 주장하고 있음. 물가지표 이후 위험자산 랠리는 이어지며 신흥국 스프레드가 축소되며 수익을 회복했지만 여전히 연 초 이후 -17%로 1994년 이후 최악의 해를 보내는 중임.
While JPMorgan Chase & Co. is urging investors to use an “unsustainable” rally in emerging-market bonds to ditch debt from some of the riskiest corners of the world, Morgan Stanley is recommending they pile up on it. A lower-than-expected US inflation reading released Wednesday should support developing-nation bonds, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Simon Waever wrote in a note, turning bullish on sovereign credit for the first time since November 2020. Just a day before, JPMorgan strategists led by Trang Nguyen said the recent rebound in the asset class won’t last long, suggesting clients dump less liquid names at opportunistic prices and buy cheaper hedges to protect against selloffs. The latest inflation data from the US spurred a risk rally as traders reduced Federal Reserve tightening wagers. The extra yield investors demand to hold emerging-market sovereign debt over US Treasuries narrowed Wednesday, extending the trend since mid-July, when spreads on the JPMorgan index peaked at the highest levels in over two years. The strong performance in the last weeks has helped the gauge trim some losses. It’s still down almost 17% in 2022 and on course for its worst year since 1994 as investors fret the era of easy money ending will result in a cascade of defaults from struggling emerging nations.
While JPMorgan Chase & Co. is urging investors to use an “unsustainable” rally in emerging-market bonds to ditch debt from some of the riskiest corners of the world, Morgan Stanley is recommending they pile up on it. A lower-than-expected US inflation reading released Wednesday should support developing-nation bonds, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Simon Waever wrote in a note, turning bullish on sovereign credit for the first time since November 2020. Just a day before, JPMorgan strategists led by Trang Nguyen said the recent rebound in the asset class won’t last long, suggesting clients dump less liquid names at opportunistic prices and buy cheaper hedges to protect against selloffs. The latest inflation data from the US spurred a risk rally as traders reduced Federal Reserve tightening wagers. The extra yield investors demand to hold emerging-market sovereign debt over US Treasuries narrowed Wednesday, extending the trend since mid-July, when spreads on the JPMorgan index peaked at the highest levels in over two years. The strong performance in the last weeks has helped the gauge trim some losses. It’s still down almost 17% in 2022 and on course for its worst year since 1994 as investors fret the era of easy money ending will result in a cascade of defaults from struggling emerging nations.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 통제하고 있다고 섣불리 말하긴 어렵고 이를 위한 일은 지속할 것이나, 세번 연속 75bp 인상보다 9월은 50bp 인상이 적절해보인다 발언하며 중앙은행 인사 중 처음으로 속도조절에 대해 언급함.
It is far too early for the US central bank to “declare victory” in its fight against elevated inflation, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said in an interview with the Financial Times. While she didn’t rule out a third straight 0.75 ppt rate rise at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, she signaled initial support for a slowdown in the pace of its interest rate increases. Says 0.5 ppt rate rise in September is her “baseline”. Daly on Wednesday maintained that rates should rise to just under 3.5% by the end of the year, a level that constrains business and consumer activity. “Inflation remains far too high and not near our price stability goal, This is why we don’t want to declare victory on inflation coming down. We’re not near done yet”.
It is far too early for the US central bank to “declare victory” in its fight against elevated inflation, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said in an interview with the Financial Times. While she didn’t rule out a third straight 0.75 ppt rate rise at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, she signaled initial support for a slowdown in the pace of its interest rate increases. Says 0.5 ppt rate rise in September is her “baseline”. Daly on Wednesday maintained that rates should rise to just under 3.5% by the end of the year, a level that constrains business and consumer activity. “Inflation remains far too high and not near our price stability goal, This is why we don’t want to declare victory on inflation coming down. We’re not near done yet”.
Bottom-line: 주식시장은 기관 중심의 비중축소 상태에서 중소형주와 기술주, 그리고 공매도가 많은 밈 주식 중심으로 랠리(혹은 Short covering)를 이어가고 있으나 두 가지 위험인 I) 중앙은행 인사들의 금리인상 지속 의지 발언, II) 기술 기업들의 어두운 이익전망이 추가적 상승에 의구심을 갖게하며, 52주 신고가 비율 또한 낮다는게 주의할 부분임.
Institutional positioning on risk assets is at a very low level, which might prompt a short-covering rally on any good news. But she is still doubtful the market could reach the previous highs in near term. This is a view that I echo. We see the softer-than expected CPI report prompted a market rally, especially in small cap and tech sectors - and we are also seeing some short covering in meme stocks as well as short end of the Treasury curve. While there is room for further upside, two major risks on the horizon will likely put a cap to a full-on risk rally. The Fed hiking cycle is still happening in earnest and -- contrary to market pricing -- recent Fedspeak seems to be dismissing the possibility of a rate cut next year. Meanwhile, chip companies are warning that earnings will be revised lower on weaker demand, dampening the outlook on the fundamental picture on stocks. As this chart shows, there are few 52-week highs in global stock markets, making the case for testing records an unlikely one.
Institutional positioning on risk assets is at a very low level, which might prompt a short-covering rally on any good news. But she is still doubtful the market could reach the previous highs in near term. This is a view that I echo. We see the softer-than expected CPI report prompted a market rally, especially in small cap and tech sectors - and we are also seeing some short covering in meme stocks as well as short end of the Treasury curve. While there is room for further upside, two major risks on the horizon will likely put a cap to a full-on risk rally. The Fed hiking cycle is still happening in earnest and -- contrary to market pricing -- recent Fedspeak seems to be dismissing the possibility of a rate cut next year. Meanwhile, chip companies are warning that earnings will be revised lower on weaker demand, dampening the outlook on the fundamental picture on stocks. As this chart shows, there are few 52-week highs in global stock markets, making the case for testing records an unlikely one.
Bottom-line: 애널리스트에게 족쇄 같은 투자의견에 대한 간섭이 없다면 한국에서 더 뛰어난 보고서를 볼 수 있을텐데,
World’s Least-Loved Megabank Loses Last Analyst Buy Rating. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the world’s least popular megabank among analysts, has lost its last remaining bull. The country’s biggest lender, which has the worst consensus rating among banks worth at least $20 billion, now has zero buy-equivalent recommendations after a downgrade by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. The brokerage flagged slowing credit growth and rising cost pressures after the bank warned of a challenging outlook during its full-year earnings results on Wednesday. “The macro outlook for Australian banks is deteriorating.” as rising rates crimp credit expansion, Jefferies analysts led by Brian Johnson wrote in a note. Intense deposit competition is also weakening the company’s net interest margin outlook.
World’s Least-Loved Megabank Loses Last Analyst Buy Rating. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the world’s least popular megabank among analysts, has lost its last remaining bull. The country’s biggest lender, which has the worst consensus rating among banks worth at least $20 billion, now has zero buy-equivalent recommendations after a downgrade by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. The brokerage flagged slowing credit growth and rising cost pressures after the bank warned of a challenging outlook during its full-year earnings results on Wednesday. “The macro outlook for Australian banks is deteriorating.” as rising rates crimp credit expansion, Jefferies analysts led by Brian Johnson wrote in a note. Intense deposit competition is also weakening the company’s net interest margin outlook.
Bottom-line: 대확산 시기보다 떨어진 수요로 인해 가솔린 가격 4달러 하회하며 3월 이후 최저치 기록함.
US average retail gasoline prices fell to $3.99 a gallon, the lowest level since early March, according to data from AAA. Costs have fallen with cheaper oil and relatively weak demand. By one measure, fuel consumption is lower than it was during the summer of 2020 when the country was in the throes of the pandemic.
US average retail gasoline prices fell to $3.99 a gallon, the lowest level since early March, according to data from AAA. Costs have fallen with cheaper oil and relatively weak demand. By one measure, fuel consumption is lower than it was during the summer of 2020 when the country was in the throes of the pandemic.
Bottom-line: 국제에너지기구는 올해 전세계 원유 수요 전망을 일간 210만 배럴로 기존보다 일간 38만 배럴 상향함. 이는 산업체나 발전업체가 가스 대신 원유로 연료대체에 따른 것이며 특히 유럽과 중동에 의해 수요 전망을 상향했음.
The International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for global oil demand growth this year as soaring natural gas prices and heatwaves spur industry and power generators to switch their fuel to oil. World oil consumption will now increase by 2.1 million barrels a day this year, or about 2%, up 380,000 a day from the previous forecast, the Paris-based agency said in its latest monthly report. The extra demand that prompted the revision is “overwhelmingly concentrated” in the Middle East and Europe. Natural gas prices have surged this year as Russia restricts gas flows to Europe, a move that is widely seen as retaliation for sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. The increase has prompted many industrial consumers, including refiners and power plants, to switch from gas to oil. Scorching temperatures have also spurred demand for air conditioning, particularly in the Middle East, where a significant amount of oil is burned during summer to generate electricity.
The International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for global oil demand growth this year as soaring natural gas prices and heatwaves spur industry and power generators to switch their fuel to oil. World oil consumption will now increase by 2.1 million barrels a day this year, or about 2%, up 380,000 a day from the previous forecast, the Paris-based agency said in its latest monthly report. The extra demand that prompted the revision is “overwhelmingly concentrated” in the Middle East and Europe. Natural gas prices have surged this year as Russia restricts gas flows to Europe, a move that is widely seen as retaliation for sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. The increase has prompted many industrial consumers, including refiners and power plants, to switch from gas to oil. Scorching temperatures have also spurred demand for air conditioning, particularly in the Middle East, where a significant amount of oil is burned during summer to generate electricity.
Bottom-line: 독일 최대 전력 기업은 에너지 독립과 기후중립을 위해 신재생에 당초 투자 계획을 30% 증가시킴.
RWE AG is investing more than originally planned on building domestic supplies of renewable energy to make Europe more independent as the region’s energy crisis gets worse. Germany’s biggest power producer plans to spend more than 5 billion euros ($5.1 billion), on green technologies this fiscal year, including wind, solar and batteries, as well as ramping up hydrogen, it said in a statement on Wednesday. That’s about 30% more than first planned. Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in decades and is racing to boost supplies ahead of winter. Governments and politicians in Brussels have over the past few months been focusing on plans to secure supplies ahead of winter as flows of natural gas from Russia have dwindled. “All this is urgently needed in order to make energy supply more independent and climate-neutral,” Chief Executive Officer Markus Krebber said in the statement.
RWE AG is investing more than originally planned on building domestic supplies of renewable energy to make Europe more independent as the region’s energy crisis gets worse. Germany’s biggest power producer plans to spend more than 5 billion euros ($5.1 billion), on green technologies this fiscal year, including wind, solar and batteries, as well as ramping up hydrogen, it said in a statement on Wednesday. That’s about 30% more than first planned. Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in decades and is racing to boost supplies ahead of winter. Governments and politicians in Brussels have over the past few months been focusing on plans to secure supplies ahead of winter as flows of natural gas from Russia have dwindled. “All this is urgently needed in order to make energy supply more independent and climate-neutral,” Chief Executive Officer Markus Krebber said in the statement.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건은 계량분석을 통해 거시경제와 시장 환경이 공히 악화되면서 경기주기와 반대의 관계를 가지는 인컴 중심 포트폴리오가 3분기 좋은 성과를 낼 것으로 본다 함.
Income strategies have a positive performance outlook for 3Q, JPMorgan strategists say, as they are inversely correlated to the economic cycle. Quantitative strategists including Ayub Hanif and Khuram Chaudhry see continuing deterioration in both macro and market’s earning backdrop, making income strategies more attractive. Say income approach improves risk-adjusted performance, reduces volatility and maximum drawdowns, whilst increasing overall portfolio strategy effectiveness.
Income strategies have a positive performance outlook for 3Q, JPMorgan strategists say, as they are inversely correlated to the economic cycle. Quantitative strategists including Ayub Hanif and Khuram Chaudhry see continuing deterioration in both macro and market’s earning backdrop, making income strategies more attractive. Say income approach improves risk-adjusted performance, reduces volatility and maximum drawdowns, whilst increasing overall portfolio strategy effectiveness.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 이후 중앙은행 인사들의 발언에 금리는 되돌림이 있었으나 주가는 이를 무시하고 상승, 이를 놓고 강세장에 희망을 품는다면 애석하게도, 2000년에서 2001년 일곱번의 20% 지수 랠리가 있었으며 2002년 최종 저점까지 매 랠리는 새로운 저점을 향했음.
It’s notable that while Fed speakers’ push back on the impact of Wednesday’s CPI figure had a notable effect on fixed income pricing, equity markets more or less totally shrugged it off. The NDX has now rallied more than 20% from its nadir, leading to some labeling it a new bull market. That’s a pretty silly thing to do in real time; in 2000-01, the NDX posted no fewer than seven separate rallies of at least 20%, each of which were followed by a new low before the index found its ultimate bottom in 2002.
It’s notable that while Fed speakers’ push back on the impact of Wednesday’s CPI figure had a notable effect on fixed income pricing, equity markets more or less totally shrugged it off. The NDX has now rallied more than 20% from its nadir, leading to some labeling it a new bull market. That’s a pretty silly thing to do in real time; in 2000-01, the NDX posted no fewer than seven separate rallies of at least 20%, each of which were followed by a new low before the index found its ultimate bottom in 2002.
Bottom-line: 생산자 물가지표가 2년 넘는 기간래 최대로 하락하면서 인플레이션 압력이 완화되었음을 알림.
US Producer Prices Fall for First Time Since Early in Pandemic. A key measure of US business prices unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than two years, largely reflecting a drop in energy costs and representing a welcome moderation in inflationary pressures. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier and rose 9.8% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% monthly gain and a 10.4% year-over-year advance. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. Both figures were softer than forecast.
US Producer Prices Fall for First Time Since Early in Pandemic. A key measure of US business prices unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than two years, largely reflecting a drop in energy costs and representing a welcome moderation in inflationary pressures. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier and rose 9.8% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% monthly gain and a 10.4% year-over-year advance. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. Both figures were softer than forecast.
Bottom-line: 고용지표 서프라이즈로 잠시 부상했던 9월 통화정책회의 전 금리인상 확률은 사라짐.
Fed Funds Futures Buying Continues, Fading an Intermeeting Hike. A large buy flow in August fed funds futures in US trading Thursday comes as traders downgrade the chances of a rate hike by the Fed before its next scheduled meeting in September. Screen flows have included one 20,000 lift shortly before 7am ET.
Fed Funds Futures Buying Continues, Fading an Intermeeting Hike. A large buy flow in August fed funds futures in US trading Thursday comes as traders downgrade the chances of a rate hike by the Fed before its next scheduled meeting in September. Screen flows have included one 20,000 lift shortly before 7am ET.
Bottom-line: 2분기 실적이 예상을 하회한 기업들의 주가는 당일 평균 0.6% 상승하며 2017년 이후 평균 -1.2% 하락하던 반응과 반대, 이는 실적 발표 전 투자자들이 이미 부정적 사실을 반영하고 있었단 뜻임.
This year, second-quarter earnings from companies whose results have trailed analysts’ estimates have been rewarded with the biggest stock price gains in at least five years. S&P 500 firms that fell short of expectations gained 0.6% after reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. This suggests investors had already priced in negative sentiment into the market before the earnings season kicked off.
This year, second-quarter earnings from companies whose results have trailed analysts’ estimates have been rewarded with the biggest stock price gains in at least five years. S&P 500 firms that fell short of expectations gained 0.6% after reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. This suggests investors had already priced in negative sentiment into the market before the earnings season kicked off.