Bottom-line: 애널리스트에게 족쇄 같은 투자의견에 대한 간섭이 없다면 한국에서 더 뛰어난 보고서를 볼 수 있을텐데,
World’s Least-Loved Megabank Loses Last Analyst Buy Rating. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the world’s least popular megabank among analysts, has lost its last remaining bull. The country’s biggest lender, which has the worst consensus rating among banks worth at least $20 billion, now has zero buy-equivalent recommendations after a downgrade by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. The brokerage flagged slowing credit growth and rising cost pressures after the bank warned of a challenging outlook during its full-year earnings results on Wednesday. “The macro outlook for Australian banks is deteriorating.” as rising rates crimp credit expansion, Jefferies analysts led by Brian Johnson wrote in a note. Intense deposit competition is also weakening the company’s net interest margin outlook.
World’s Least-Loved Megabank Loses Last Analyst Buy Rating. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the world’s least popular megabank among analysts, has lost its last remaining bull. The country’s biggest lender, which has the worst consensus rating among banks worth at least $20 billion, now has zero buy-equivalent recommendations after a downgrade by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. The brokerage flagged slowing credit growth and rising cost pressures after the bank warned of a challenging outlook during its full-year earnings results on Wednesday. “The macro outlook for Australian banks is deteriorating.” as rising rates crimp credit expansion, Jefferies analysts led by Brian Johnson wrote in a note. Intense deposit competition is also weakening the company’s net interest margin outlook.
Bottom-line: 대확산 시기보다 떨어진 수요로 인해 가솔린 가격 4달러 하회하며 3월 이후 최저치 기록함.
US average retail gasoline prices fell to $3.99 a gallon, the lowest level since early March, according to data from AAA. Costs have fallen with cheaper oil and relatively weak demand. By one measure, fuel consumption is lower than it was during the summer of 2020 when the country was in the throes of the pandemic.
US average retail gasoline prices fell to $3.99 a gallon, the lowest level since early March, according to data from AAA. Costs have fallen with cheaper oil and relatively weak demand. By one measure, fuel consumption is lower than it was during the summer of 2020 when the country was in the throes of the pandemic.
Bottom-line: 국제에너지기구는 올해 전세계 원유 수요 전망을 일간 210만 배럴로 기존보다 일간 38만 배럴 상향함. 이는 산업체나 발전업체가 가스 대신 원유로 연료대체에 따른 것이며 특히 유럽과 중동에 의해 수요 전망을 상향했음.
The International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for global oil demand growth this year as soaring natural gas prices and heatwaves spur industry and power generators to switch their fuel to oil. World oil consumption will now increase by 2.1 million barrels a day this year, or about 2%, up 380,000 a day from the previous forecast, the Paris-based agency said in its latest monthly report. The extra demand that prompted the revision is “overwhelmingly concentrated” in the Middle East and Europe. Natural gas prices have surged this year as Russia restricts gas flows to Europe, a move that is widely seen as retaliation for sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. The increase has prompted many industrial consumers, including refiners and power plants, to switch from gas to oil. Scorching temperatures have also spurred demand for air conditioning, particularly in the Middle East, where a significant amount of oil is burned during summer to generate electricity.
The International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for global oil demand growth this year as soaring natural gas prices and heatwaves spur industry and power generators to switch their fuel to oil. World oil consumption will now increase by 2.1 million barrels a day this year, or about 2%, up 380,000 a day from the previous forecast, the Paris-based agency said in its latest monthly report. The extra demand that prompted the revision is “overwhelmingly concentrated” in the Middle East and Europe. Natural gas prices have surged this year as Russia restricts gas flows to Europe, a move that is widely seen as retaliation for sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. The increase has prompted many industrial consumers, including refiners and power plants, to switch from gas to oil. Scorching temperatures have also spurred demand for air conditioning, particularly in the Middle East, where a significant amount of oil is burned during summer to generate electricity.
Bottom-line: 독일 최대 전력 기업은 에너지 독립과 기후중립을 위해 신재생에 당초 투자 계획을 30% 증가시킴.
RWE AG is investing more than originally planned on building domestic supplies of renewable energy to make Europe more independent as the region’s energy crisis gets worse. Germany’s biggest power producer plans to spend more than 5 billion euros ($5.1 billion), on green technologies this fiscal year, including wind, solar and batteries, as well as ramping up hydrogen, it said in a statement on Wednesday. That’s about 30% more than first planned. Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in decades and is racing to boost supplies ahead of winter. Governments and politicians in Brussels have over the past few months been focusing on plans to secure supplies ahead of winter as flows of natural gas from Russia have dwindled. “All this is urgently needed in order to make energy supply more independent and climate-neutral,” Chief Executive Officer Markus Krebber said in the statement.
RWE AG is investing more than originally planned on building domestic supplies of renewable energy to make Europe more independent as the region’s energy crisis gets worse. Germany’s biggest power producer plans to spend more than 5 billion euros ($5.1 billion), on green technologies this fiscal year, including wind, solar and batteries, as well as ramping up hydrogen, it said in a statement on Wednesday. That’s about 30% more than first planned. Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in decades and is racing to boost supplies ahead of winter. Governments and politicians in Brussels have over the past few months been focusing on plans to secure supplies ahead of winter as flows of natural gas from Russia have dwindled. “All this is urgently needed in order to make energy supply more independent and climate-neutral,” Chief Executive Officer Markus Krebber said in the statement.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건은 계량분석을 통해 거시경제와 시장 환경이 공히 악화되면서 경기주기와 반대의 관계를 가지는 인컴 중심 포트폴리오가 3분기 좋은 성과를 낼 것으로 본다 함.
Income strategies have a positive performance outlook for 3Q, JPMorgan strategists say, as they are inversely correlated to the economic cycle. Quantitative strategists including Ayub Hanif and Khuram Chaudhry see continuing deterioration in both macro and market’s earning backdrop, making income strategies more attractive. Say income approach improves risk-adjusted performance, reduces volatility and maximum drawdowns, whilst increasing overall portfolio strategy effectiveness.
Income strategies have a positive performance outlook for 3Q, JPMorgan strategists say, as they are inversely correlated to the economic cycle. Quantitative strategists including Ayub Hanif and Khuram Chaudhry see continuing deterioration in both macro and market’s earning backdrop, making income strategies more attractive. Say income approach improves risk-adjusted performance, reduces volatility and maximum drawdowns, whilst increasing overall portfolio strategy effectiveness.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 이후 중앙은행 인사들의 발언에 금리는 되돌림이 있었으나 주가는 이를 무시하고 상승, 이를 놓고 강세장에 희망을 품는다면 애석하게도, 2000년에서 2001년 일곱번의 20% 지수 랠리가 있었으며 2002년 최종 저점까지 매 랠리는 새로운 저점을 향했음.
It’s notable that while Fed speakers’ push back on the impact of Wednesday’s CPI figure had a notable effect on fixed income pricing, equity markets more or less totally shrugged it off. The NDX has now rallied more than 20% from its nadir, leading to some labeling it a new bull market. That’s a pretty silly thing to do in real time; in 2000-01, the NDX posted no fewer than seven separate rallies of at least 20%, each of which were followed by a new low before the index found its ultimate bottom in 2002.
It’s notable that while Fed speakers’ push back on the impact of Wednesday’s CPI figure had a notable effect on fixed income pricing, equity markets more or less totally shrugged it off. The NDX has now rallied more than 20% from its nadir, leading to some labeling it a new bull market. That’s a pretty silly thing to do in real time; in 2000-01, the NDX posted no fewer than seven separate rallies of at least 20%, each of which were followed by a new low before the index found its ultimate bottom in 2002.
Bottom-line: 생산자 물가지표가 2년 넘는 기간래 최대로 하락하면서 인플레이션 압력이 완화되었음을 알림.
US Producer Prices Fall for First Time Since Early in Pandemic. A key measure of US business prices unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than two years, largely reflecting a drop in energy costs and representing a welcome moderation in inflationary pressures. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier and rose 9.8% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% monthly gain and a 10.4% year-over-year advance. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. Both figures were softer than forecast.
US Producer Prices Fall for First Time Since Early in Pandemic. A key measure of US business prices unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than two years, largely reflecting a drop in energy costs and representing a welcome moderation in inflationary pressures. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier and rose 9.8% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% monthly gain and a 10.4% year-over-year advance. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. Both figures were softer than forecast.
Bottom-line: 고용지표 서프라이즈로 잠시 부상했던 9월 통화정책회의 전 금리인상 확률은 사라짐.
Fed Funds Futures Buying Continues, Fading an Intermeeting Hike. A large buy flow in August fed funds futures in US trading Thursday comes as traders downgrade the chances of a rate hike by the Fed before its next scheduled meeting in September. Screen flows have included one 20,000 lift shortly before 7am ET.
Fed Funds Futures Buying Continues, Fading an Intermeeting Hike. A large buy flow in August fed funds futures in US trading Thursday comes as traders downgrade the chances of a rate hike by the Fed before its next scheduled meeting in September. Screen flows have included one 20,000 lift shortly before 7am ET.
Bottom-line: 2분기 실적이 예상을 하회한 기업들의 주가는 당일 평균 0.6% 상승하며 2017년 이후 평균 -1.2% 하락하던 반응과 반대, 이는 실적 발표 전 투자자들이 이미 부정적 사실을 반영하고 있었단 뜻임.
This year, second-quarter earnings from companies whose results have trailed analysts’ estimates have been rewarded with the biggest stock price gains in at least five years. S&P 500 firms that fell short of expectations gained 0.6% after reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. This suggests investors had already priced in negative sentiment into the market before the earnings season kicked off.
This year, second-quarter earnings from companies whose results have trailed analysts’ estimates have been rewarded with the biggest stock price gains in at least five years. S&P 500 firms that fell short of expectations gained 0.6% after reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. This suggests investors had already priced in negative sentiment into the market before the earnings season kicked off.
Bottom-line: 피보나치 기준 50% 되돌림 지점까지 오자 중앙은행이 여전히 긴축 중인데 우리가 너무 온 것이 아닌가하며 하락 반전.
Stocks wiped out gains on speculation the rally that followed softer inflation data went too far, with the Federal Reserve still set to keep its monetary policy tight. Bond yields climbed. The S&P 500 edged lower after an advance that topped 1% earlier in the day and put the gauge near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the current bear market. Several analysts attributed the recent surge to short-covering. Tech underperformed following a runup that sent the Nasdaq 100 more than 20% above its June lows. Big names like Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. sank.
Stocks wiped out gains on speculation the rally that followed softer inflation data went too far, with the Federal Reserve still set to keep its monetary policy tight. Bond yields climbed. The S&P 500 edged lower after an advance that topped 1% earlier in the day and put the gauge near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the current bear market. Several analysts attributed the recent surge to short-covering. Tech underperformed following a runup that sent the Nasdaq 100 more than 20% above its June lows. Big names like Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. sank.
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Bottom-line: 대확산 시기 금리와 주가는 동시에 상승하며 높은 상관관계를 가짐, 올해도 여전히 상관관계는 높지만 역의 관계임. 그러므로 9월 금리인상 확정 전까지 금리상승은 주식에 악영향을 줌.
Interest Rates Don’t Always Move Stocks But Are Moving Them Now. Since the onset of the pandemic, stocks and yields have moved higher in tandem, with the US 10-year yield and the S&P at nearly a perfect correlation. But since the beginning of this year, that has completely changed. The correlation is still high, but now it’s inverted. The implication is that stocks will be in trouble if rates rise into the all-but-certain Fed rate hike in September.
Interest Rates Don’t Always Move Stocks But Are Moving Them Now. Since the onset of the pandemic, stocks and yields have moved higher in tandem, with the US 10-year yield and the S&P at nearly a perfect correlation. But since the beginning of this year, that has completely changed. The correlation is still high, but now it’s inverted. The implication is that stocks will be in trouble if rates rise into the all-but-certain Fed rate hike in September.
Bottom-line: 중국의 군사훈련 종료로 긴장이 완화된 듯 보이나, 미국 및 중국 정책입안자들은 서로의 경제의존도를 줄이려는 노력을 멈추지 않고 있음.
Tensions surrounding Taiwan eased a bit this week as China on Tuesday concluded its military exercises held around the island. Taiwan’s benchmark equity index closed above its 50-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since May 31. For policy makers in both Beijing and Washington, however, the push to reduce economic dependence on each other appears far from over. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip and China’s military responses added tension and put decoupling on a fast track.
Tensions surrounding Taiwan eased a bit this week as China on Tuesday concluded its military exercises held around the island. Taiwan’s benchmark equity index closed above its 50-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since May 31. For policy makers in both Beijing and Washington, however, the push to reduce economic dependence on each other appears far from over. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip and China’s military responses added tension and put decoupling on a fast track.
Bottom-line: 만일 경기침체가 발생한다면 주가는 큰 폭으로 하락해 S&P 500 기준 3,262포인트에 도달할 것, 다만 최근 금융시장환경지표는 7월 고점 이후 급격히 완화되어 참여자들이 중앙은행의 가파른 금리인상에 따른 침체를 덜 걱정하고 있음을 나타냄.
The S&P 500 should fall a lot further to price in a US recession. The US equity index has slid 32% on an average from a peak to a trough during the past eight recessions going back to 1969. Should the benchmark fall by a similar degree from the January high, the gauge would reach 3,262, compared with 4,207 currently. A gauge of financial stress -- analogous to financial conditions -- has fallen to the lowest level in almost four months since peaking in early July. It’s almost as though markets are saying looser financial conditions are needed to avoid a recession while the Fed is working hard to rein in inflation.
The S&P 500 should fall a lot further to price in a US recession. The US equity index has slid 32% on an average from a peak to a trough during the past eight recessions going back to 1969. Should the benchmark fall by a similar degree from the January high, the gauge would reach 3,262, compared with 4,207 currently. A gauge of financial stress -- analogous to financial conditions -- has fallen to the lowest level in almost four months since peaking in early July. It’s almost as though markets are saying looser financial conditions are needed to avoid a recession while the Fed is working hard to rein in inflation.