Bloomberg reported that Beijing may front-load use of Rmb1.5trn (US$220bn) local govt. special bond (LGSB) quota from 2023 to 2H22. Reuters also reported on July 5 that a Rmb500bn infrastructure fund could be set up in 3Q. If materialized, these coupled with policy banks' Rmb300bn financial bonds and Rmb800bn credit could help sustain infrastructure capex momentum beyond August, when MoF requires all the Rmb4.8trn LGSB proceeds to be deployed into projects. In turn, the fiscal and quasi-fiscal boost to infrastructure would reach >Rmb7trn this year, 3x last year's Rmb2.4trn, outweighing slower land revenues and continued scrutiny over local hidden debt and lifting full-year infra. FAI growth to 9-10% (vs. 8.2% YTD and 1.8% p.a. in 2020-21). Separately, echoing a strong pro-growth mindset, China further eased intercity travel restrictions despite the recent flare up in Ba.5 variant, halving travel history tracing to 7 days. These combined support a gradual growth recovery in 2H (3.7% YoY vs. 0.5% in 2Q).

보고서: 중국의 성장률은 부양은 늘리고 규제는 줄이면서 회복할 것임. (Morgan Stanley - More Stimulus, Less Restrictions)

President Joe Biden will discuss possible reductions in US tariffs on Chinese goods in a meeting with his advisers set for Friday, according to people familiar with the matter, as his administration nears a closely-watched decision on trade with China. The White House meeting is the latest in a series Biden has held on the issue, and it’s not clear if he intends to decide on a path forward, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the president has yet to reach a decision. 

함의: Will, will, will...

Some of South Korea’s legion of retail investors, who’ve been eager buyers of volatile assets like cryptocurrencies and Tesla Inc., may be getting cold feet. An early sign of that can be seen in their still small but growing purchases of one of the more conventional and usually less risky asset classes: debt securities. At the same time those investors are buying shares at a much slower pace. At Samsung Securities Co., one of Korea’s biggest brokerages, retail investors bought 2.8 trillion won ($2.2 billion) of local bonds in the first half of 2022, an increase of 60% from a year earlier. Retail traders’ bond trading accounts are increasing at brokerages including NH Investment & Securities Co., and investors are buying high-grade debt such as Korea Electric Power Corp. notes.

함의: 한국 개인 투자자들의 위험자산 회피심리가 높아지고 있음.

Investors making bullish calls on Chinese equities have just found another reason to love them: these stocks have zero performance correlation with their US peers. The 52-week correlation between the S&P 500 Index and the CSI 300 Index has fallen to around zero for the first time in four years. That’s largely a function of the policy divergence between the two countries -- with US now trying to put a brake on the economy to stamp out inflation and China shifting its policy focus to bolstering growth from tightening the screw on tech giants and property speculation.

함의: 미국과 중국의 상반 된 핵심정책으로 두 국가의 주가지수 상관관계가 4년만에 '0'으로 무관한 영역에 수렴함.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe -- Japan’s longest-serving premier and a figure of enduring influence -- was in grave condition after he was shot during a campaign event Friday, an attack that shocked a nation where political violence and guns are rare.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue, providing another signal that electronics demand is holding up better than feared. The world’s largest contract chipmaker booked NT$534.1 billion ($17.9 billion) of revenue for the second quarter, according to Bloomberg’s calculations, compared with the average analysts’ estimate of NT$519 billion. The results from Apple Inc.’s most important chipmaker may allay investors’ worst fears about the impact of weakening demand and soaring costs on the $550 billion semiconductor industry. On Thursday, Samsung Electronics Co. also reported a better-than-anticipated 21% jump in revenue, triggering an Asian stock rally.

함의: 애플의 메인 제조업체가 수요 둔화와 투입 비용 증가에 대한 투자자 우려를 실적으로 잠식시킴.

Today’s unexpectedly strong jobs numbers may have bought a temporary reprieve, but the recession drum-beat is getting louder, with the Wells Fargo Investment Institute going as far to say the US is already in one. That’s likely premature, but the slowing of growth and the nature of recessions means this could change very fast. After the stimulus-charged demand surge in the wake of the pandemic, US growth is now fading rapidly. Rising rates are coursing through the economy, causing slowdowns in housing, auto sales, demand for lending, and leading to collapses in business and consumer confidence.

함의: 고용 데이터 서프라이즈만으로 침체 우려가 덮어진다 볼 수 없음.

Labor-market data has shown early signs of softening, but investors are mixed on the report. Bloomberg economists are factoring in the possibility that slightly softer data will prompt the central bank to go back to 50 basis point moves, even after the report showed job gains topped analyst estimates. Others see the recent data as a signal that fears of recession are overblown and say that the downshift may be too modest to shake the Fed from its path. “The reaction feels a bit knee-jerk to me,” said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI. “The market’s muscle memory tells it that a strong labor market means more hikes means sell stocks. But to ‘price’ this trend requires doing more than looking at the headline.”

함의: 같은 헤드라인을 보고도 해석은 엇갈림.

It isn’t the first time billionaire Tesla Inc. founder Elon Musk burned his investment bankers on deals and it may not be the last. When Musk dropped a regulatory filing late Friday saying he was walking away from his $44 billion agreement to buy Twitter Inc., some of the bankers who were backing him felt a mixture of disappointment and relief even with millions of dollars in fees at risk, according to people familiar with the matter. “He did burn bankers for tons of time,” said Susan Wolford, a former investment banker who was vice chair and ran the tech group at Bank of Montreal. “You have to take this to committee, you have to do all the work for something that large.”

함의: 그는 늘 거래가 아닌 노이즈를 만드는 편임.

China can consider increasing its budget deficit to provide more support for small businesses battered by Covid outbreaks and weak consumption, a former finance minister suggested on Saturday. “The budget fiscal deficit of central and local governments can be increased when necessary,” Lou Jiwei, who served as finance minister from 2013 to 2016, told the Caixin Summer Summit in Beijing. The aid to small firms “is still insufficient due to a severe slump in fiscal income across local governments,” he said. The central government could boost transfer payments to regional authorities to help them support individual merchants and small and micro businesses, Lou said. Local governments meanwhile could invest more on public projects, he added.

함의: 중국 중앙정부 및 지방정부 재정적자를 확대하면서 중소기업을 지원할 수 있다고 함.

The bounce is back in equities. Could they have fallen enough to account for what comes next in the economy? While the consensus of the pundit class is no, investors are again showing signs of seeing it otherwise. Deluded as they have repeatedly proved, hopes that the worst is over are resurfacing. The S&P 500 just shook off rising bond yields and climbed for the week, at one point stringing together the longest streak of gains since March. Notably, bulls are flexing on the eve of a period when companies will give details on the topic dearest to investor hearts: the state of earnings.

함의: 주가가 최악의 상황을 모두 반영했다는데 확신할 수 없으나, 실적 발표를 앞두고 3월 이후 가장 긴 기간 상승세를 보였단 점에 주목할 필요가 있음.

Macau will shut almost all business premises including casinos for a week from Monday as a Covid-19 outbreak in the gambling hub showed few signs of abating, Macao Daily reported.
Essential business operations including supermarkets and pharmacies will remain open, the report cited the city’s officials as saying at a press briefing Saturday. 

Sustained US job growth and an unemployment rate near a 50-year low bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will proceed with another big interest-rate hike this month to rein in demand and tamp down inflation. Jumbo hikes were the theme of the week in other countries as well, like Hungary and Pakistan, as policy makers work to extinguish price pressures.

함의: 미국의 낮은 실업률은 중앙은행의 75bp 인상 확률을 높이고 있고, 여타 국가 중앙은행의 100bp 이상의 'Jumbo hikes' 흐름을 지속하게 할 것임.

Many people of a certain age can recall the first time they held a smartphone. The devices were weird and expensive and novel enough to draw a crowd at parties. Then, less than a decade later, it became unusual not to own one. That same society-altering shift is happening now with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg analysis of adoption rates around the world. The US is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption, the period when technological preferences rapidly flip, according to the analysis. For the past six months, the US joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5% tipping point. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.

함의: 미국 신차 판매 중 전기차 비율이 5%를 넘었고, 이는 새로운 문물이 가파르게 점유율을 높이는 전환점, 다른 국가의 사례를 보면 2025년이면 미국 신차 중 25%가 전기차가 될 것임.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken blasted Beijing over its support of Russia after emerging from more than five hours of talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. During a meeting on the sidelines of a Group of 20 foreign ministers meeting in Bali, Indonesia, Blinken on Saturday said he told Wang that China wasn’t neutral on the Ukraine war because there’s no such thing as being neutral when there is a clear aggressor. He cited Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin as evidence of Beijing’s ongoing support of Moscow. 

함의: 미국은 러시아에 대한 중국의 태도를 지속 비난하고 있음.

US inflation data in the coming week may stiffen the resolve of Federal Reserve policy makers to proceed with another big boost in interest rates later this month. The closely watched consumer price index probably rose nearly 9% in June from a year earlier, a fresh four-decade high, based on the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Compared with May, the CPI is seen rising 1.1%, marking the third month in four with an increase of at least 1%.

함의: 물가 지표에서 확인하게 될 수치는 또 다시 기록적일 가능성이 높아 중앙은행의 금리인상 행보를 이을 것으로 보임.

Former US President Donald Trump had harsh words for billionaire Elon Musk at a rally in Alaska Saturday, accusing the Tesla Inc. chief of inconsistency. Refering to Musk’s recent pronouncement that he’d never voted Republican until this June, Trump said that contradicted what Musk had told him about his previous vote for the real-estate magnate. Trump followed with an expletive denoscription of the world’s richest man and voiced his judgment on the Twitter Inc. acquisition deal that Musk struck but has since decided to withdraw from, calling it “rotten.”

함의: 'inconsistency'를 그대가 논할 건 아닌 듯 한데...

Even if Joe Biden secures a pledge for more oil when he visits Saudi Arabia next week, it may do little to drive down the high fuel prices roiling the global economy. The US president’s visit to a country he once vowed to isolate represents a significant thawing of relations, but the Saudis and their OPEC partners have limited spare production capacity to offer in return for this political concession. Some market watchers also question whether tapping this supply buffer would calm energy markets, or just make matters worse.

함의: 협상이 성공적으로 끝난다해도 생산여력 자체가 부족할 수 있음.

Shanghai named new mid- and high-risk areas as more Covid infections were found, with a steady increase in cases threatening to drag China’s financial capital back into lockdown. The city reported 57 new infections for Saturday, according to a government statement, compared to 59 on Friday. Shanghai added 38 mid-risk areas and one high-risk area, the government said in a separate statement, after identifying 40 mid-risk and three high-risk areas the day before. Areas and complexes where infected people live are identified as risky.

함의: 중국 내 감염자 증가에 따른 봉쇄 위험이 커지고 있음.

China’s antitrust watchdog fined companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. for not properly reporting past transactions, according to a statement Sunday from the State Administration for Market Regulation. Tencent was fined a combined 6 million yuan ($896,245) over 12 acquisitions, while Alibaba’s subsidiaries were fined 2.5 million yuan for not reporting five deals, the statement showed. SAMR issued penalties related to 28 deals in total. The regulator said it was accelerating the disposal of existing anti-monopoly cases and will fully support the involved companies’ development.

함의: 중국 내 독점적 지위의 기업들에 대해 미뤘던 처분을 빠르게 내리고, 향후 발전을 돕겠다는 것에 의미가 큼.

Objects in the rearview mirror may appear closer than they are and inflation data will loom large for the Fed. Firmer inflation, more hikes, and less growth suggest curve flatteners in the US with more dollar strength. Driving instructors would advise heavily against looking in the rearview mirror too long. It's helpful when you decide to change lanes, but doesn't help to decide the lane in which you should be driving. Unless you spend more time looking out the windshield, something is likely to splatter all over it – making it harder to see where you're going. The just released US labor market report was decent enough, but the full set of economic data delivered in June, for the month of May, does not look pretty in the rearview mirror, whether your rearview mirror is angled at the US or Europe. In its wake, our economists delivered large downward revisions to their US and European growth forecasts. In the US, real consumption of services rose by $23 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis in May. That left real consumption of services within $312 billion of its pre-pandemic trend. That's where the good news ended. Real consumption of durable and non-durable goods fell by a total of $97 billion, on the same basis.

보고서: 백미러는 사물이 거울에 보이는 것보다 가까이 있다고 경고하는데, 분명히 높은 물가, 지속 될 금리인상, 그에 반해 낮은 성장이 달러 강세와 커브 플래트닝을 지지할 것임. (Morgan Stanley - The Rearview Mirror)