Today’s unexpectedly strong jobs numbers may have bought a temporary reprieve, but the recession drum-beat is getting louder, with the Wells Fargo Investment Institute going as far to say the US is already in one. That’s likely premature, but the slowing of growth and the nature of recessions means this could change very fast. After the stimulus-charged demand surge in the wake of the pandemic, US growth is now fading rapidly. Rising rates are coursing through the economy, causing slowdowns in housing, auto sales, demand for lending, and leading to collapses in business and consumer confidence.

함의: 고용 데이터 서프라이즈만으로 침체 우려가 덮어진다 볼 수 없음.

Labor-market data has shown early signs of softening, but investors are mixed on the report. Bloomberg economists are factoring in the possibility that slightly softer data will prompt the central bank to go back to 50 basis point moves, even after the report showed job gains topped analyst estimates. Others see the recent data as a signal that fears of recession are overblown and say that the downshift may be too modest to shake the Fed from its path. “The reaction feels a bit knee-jerk to me,” said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI. “The market’s muscle memory tells it that a strong labor market means more hikes means sell stocks. But to ‘price’ this trend requires doing more than looking at the headline.”

함의: 같은 헤드라인을 보고도 해석은 엇갈림.

It isn’t the first time billionaire Tesla Inc. founder Elon Musk burned his investment bankers on deals and it may not be the last. When Musk dropped a regulatory filing late Friday saying he was walking away from his $44 billion agreement to buy Twitter Inc., some of the bankers who were backing him felt a mixture of disappointment and relief even with millions of dollars in fees at risk, according to people familiar with the matter. “He did burn bankers for tons of time,” said Susan Wolford, a former investment banker who was vice chair and ran the tech group at Bank of Montreal. “You have to take this to committee, you have to do all the work for something that large.”

함의: 그는 늘 거래가 아닌 노이즈를 만드는 편임.

China can consider increasing its budget deficit to provide more support for small businesses battered by Covid outbreaks and weak consumption, a former finance minister suggested on Saturday. “The budget fiscal deficit of central and local governments can be increased when necessary,” Lou Jiwei, who served as finance minister from 2013 to 2016, told the Caixin Summer Summit in Beijing. The aid to small firms “is still insufficient due to a severe slump in fiscal income across local governments,” he said. The central government could boost transfer payments to regional authorities to help them support individual merchants and small and micro businesses, Lou said. Local governments meanwhile could invest more on public projects, he added.

함의: 중국 중앙정부 및 지방정부 재정적자를 확대하면서 중소기업을 지원할 수 있다고 함.

The bounce is back in equities. Could they have fallen enough to account for what comes next in the economy? While the consensus of the pundit class is no, investors are again showing signs of seeing it otherwise. Deluded as they have repeatedly proved, hopes that the worst is over are resurfacing. The S&P 500 just shook off rising bond yields and climbed for the week, at one point stringing together the longest streak of gains since March. Notably, bulls are flexing on the eve of a period when companies will give details on the topic dearest to investor hearts: the state of earnings.

함의: 주가가 최악의 상황을 모두 반영했다는데 확신할 수 없으나, 실적 발표를 앞두고 3월 이후 가장 긴 기간 상승세를 보였단 점에 주목할 필요가 있음.

Macau will shut almost all business premises including casinos for a week from Monday as a Covid-19 outbreak in the gambling hub showed few signs of abating, Macao Daily reported.
Essential business operations including supermarkets and pharmacies will remain open, the report cited the city’s officials as saying at a press briefing Saturday. 

Sustained US job growth and an unemployment rate near a 50-year low bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will proceed with another big interest-rate hike this month to rein in demand and tamp down inflation. Jumbo hikes were the theme of the week in other countries as well, like Hungary and Pakistan, as policy makers work to extinguish price pressures.

함의: 미국의 낮은 실업률은 중앙은행의 75bp 인상 확률을 높이고 있고, 여타 국가 중앙은행의 100bp 이상의 'Jumbo hikes' 흐름을 지속하게 할 것임.

Many people of a certain age can recall the first time they held a smartphone. The devices were weird and expensive and novel enough to draw a crowd at parties. Then, less than a decade later, it became unusual not to own one. That same society-altering shift is happening now with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg analysis of adoption rates around the world. The US is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption, the period when technological preferences rapidly flip, according to the analysis. For the past six months, the US joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5% tipping point. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.

함의: 미국 신차 판매 중 전기차 비율이 5%를 넘었고, 이는 새로운 문물이 가파르게 점유율을 높이는 전환점, 다른 국가의 사례를 보면 2025년이면 미국 신차 중 25%가 전기차가 될 것임.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken blasted Beijing over its support of Russia after emerging from more than five hours of talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. During a meeting on the sidelines of a Group of 20 foreign ministers meeting in Bali, Indonesia, Blinken on Saturday said he told Wang that China wasn’t neutral on the Ukraine war because there’s no such thing as being neutral when there is a clear aggressor. He cited Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin as evidence of Beijing’s ongoing support of Moscow. 

함의: 미국은 러시아에 대한 중국의 태도를 지속 비난하고 있음.

US inflation data in the coming week may stiffen the resolve of Federal Reserve policy makers to proceed with another big boost in interest rates later this month. The closely watched consumer price index probably rose nearly 9% in June from a year earlier, a fresh four-decade high, based on the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Compared with May, the CPI is seen rising 1.1%, marking the third month in four with an increase of at least 1%.

함의: 물가 지표에서 확인하게 될 수치는 또 다시 기록적일 가능성이 높아 중앙은행의 금리인상 행보를 이을 것으로 보임.

Former US President Donald Trump had harsh words for billionaire Elon Musk at a rally in Alaska Saturday, accusing the Tesla Inc. chief of inconsistency. Refering to Musk’s recent pronouncement that he’d never voted Republican until this June, Trump said that contradicted what Musk had told him about his previous vote for the real-estate magnate. Trump followed with an expletive denoscription of the world’s richest man and voiced his judgment on the Twitter Inc. acquisition deal that Musk struck but has since decided to withdraw from, calling it “rotten.”

함의: 'inconsistency'를 그대가 논할 건 아닌 듯 한데...

Even if Joe Biden secures a pledge for more oil when he visits Saudi Arabia next week, it may do little to drive down the high fuel prices roiling the global economy. The US president’s visit to a country he once vowed to isolate represents a significant thawing of relations, but the Saudis and their OPEC partners have limited spare production capacity to offer in return for this political concession. Some market watchers also question whether tapping this supply buffer would calm energy markets, or just make matters worse.

함의: 협상이 성공적으로 끝난다해도 생산여력 자체가 부족할 수 있음.

Shanghai named new mid- and high-risk areas as more Covid infections were found, with a steady increase in cases threatening to drag China’s financial capital back into lockdown. The city reported 57 new infections for Saturday, according to a government statement, compared to 59 on Friday. Shanghai added 38 mid-risk areas and one high-risk area, the government said in a separate statement, after identifying 40 mid-risk and three high-risk areas the day before. Areas and complexes where infected people live are identified as risky.

함의: 중국 내 감염자 증가에 따른 봉쇄 위험이 커지고 있음.

China’s antitrust watchdog fined companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. for not properly reporting past transactions, according to a statement Sunday from the State Administration for Market Regulation. Tencent was fined a combined 6 million yuan ($896,245) over 12 acquisitions, while Alibaba’s subsidiaries were fined 2.5 million yuan for not reporting five deals, the statement showed. SAMR issued penalties related to 28 deals in total. The regulator said it was accelerating the disposal of existing anti-monopoly cases and will fully support the involved companies’ development.

함의: 중국 내 독점적 지위의 기업들에 대해 미뤘던 처분을 빠르게 내리고, 향후 발전을 돕겠다는 것에 의미가 큼.

Objects in the rearview mirror may appear closer than they are and inflation data will loom large for the Fed. Firmer inflation, more hikes, and less growth suggest curve flatteners in the US with more dollar strength. Driving instructors would advise heavily against looking in the rearview mirror too long. It's helpful when you decide to change lanes, but doesn't help to decide the lane in which you should be driving. Unless you spend more time looking out the windshield, something is likely to splatter all over it – making it harder to see where you're going. The just released US labor market report was decent enough, but the full set of economic data delivered in June, for the month of May, does not look pretty in the rearview mirror, whether your rearview mirror is angled at the US or Europe. In its wake, our economists delivered large downward revisions to their US and European growth forecasts. In the US, real consumption of services rose by $23 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis in May. That left real consumption of services within $312 billion of its pre-pandemic trend. That's where the good news ended. Real consumption of durable and non-durable goods fell by a total of $97 billion, on the same basis.

보고서: 백미러는 사물이 거울에 보이는 것보다 가까이 있다고 경고하는데, 분명히 높은 물가, 지속 될 금리인상, 그에 반해 낮은 성장이 달러 강세와 커브 플래트닝을 지지할 것임. (Morgan Stanley - The Rearview Mirror)

Slowdown or recession? That is the question. On one hand, the ISM Services index (reading of 55) remained in expansion, the US economy added 372k jobs in June and the jobless rate was flat at 3.6%. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing new orders component (reading of 49) fell into contractionary territory for the first time since 2020, and the GS US Current Activity Indicator now shows a -0.5% pace of real US economic growth. Within equities, Cyclicals have lagged Defensives and imply a contraction in the ISM Manufacturing index (vs. latest reading of 53). In the recessionary scenario, we expect the S&P 500 index level would fall by 19% to 3150 at year-end 2022, including a P/E multiple contraction to 14x. Prices move faster than analyst estimates, so we assume that by year-end 2022 bottom-up consensus 2023 EPS forecasts move halfway from current estimates ($250) to eventual realized EPS ($200). If the forward EPS estimate moves to $225, a 14x P/E multiple would bring the S&P 500 to 3150. This peak to trough price decline of 34% would be slightly more severe than the historical average recession decline of 30% but in line with the median bear market decline since WWII. In our baseline outlook, we forecast the S&P 500 will end the year at 4300 (+10%).

보고서: 지표의 헤드라인은 침체와 멀어보이지만, 침체의 시나리오를 가정해보면 현재보다 지수는 -19% 가량 추가 하락 가능함. (Godman Sachs - Estimating the EPS impact of a potential recession)

"Age is no barrier. It's a limitation you put on your mind."

- Jackie Joyner-Kersee

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Europe must prepare for Russian gas deliveries to be shut off entirely in retaliation for the region’s sanctions on the Kremlin and support for Ukraine. “Let’s prepare ourselves for a total cut-off of Russian gas,” Le Maire said at an economicㅕ conference in Aix-en-Provence, southern France, on Sunday. “That’s the most likely scenario today.” France must be “very careful” in its energy consumption, build up gas stockpiles, reduce red tape slowing the development of renewable energies, and accelerate its program to build new nuclear reactors, the finance minister said. The country must also make plans to curtail energy usage company by company, and by region, to ensure that businesses such as glass makers are spared from irreversible damage, he added.

함의: 프랑스 재무장관은 러시아의 가스관 차단 가능성이 매우 높으며, 에너지 위기를 극복하기 위해 재생 에너지 및 원자력 발전에 속도를 높여야 한다고 함.

Shanghai reported its first case of the BA.5 sub-variant on Sunday, warning of “very high” risks as the city’s rising Covid outbreak sparks fears of a return to its earlier lockdown. The case was discovered Friday, Zhao Dandan, vice head of Shanghai’s health commission, said at a press conference Sunday. Mass testing for Covid will be performed twice between July 12 and July 14 in nine districts, as well as tests for people in some neighborhoods in other districts where infected people have been, he added. The city reported one local Covid case outside quarantine for Sunday. 

함의: 중국 내 변이 바이러스 감염 발견에 따라 봉쇄 가능성 높아지고 있음.

Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse. The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000, according to 60% of the 950 investors who responded to the latest MLIV Pulse survey. Forty percent saw it going the other way. It was around $21,850 late Friday afternoon, ending the week up over 12%. The lopsided prediction underscores how bearish investors have become. The crypto industry has been rocked by troubled lenders, collapsed currencies, and an end to the easy money policies of the pandemic that fueled a speculative frenzy in financial markets. 

함의: 블룸버그 설문 결과 비트코인 가격의 3만불 회복보다 1만불로 하락 응답이 많았고, 여러 환경들이 부정적 투자심리를 조성하고 있다 함.

Australia’s dollar has reacted rather peculiarly to some of the steepest rate hikes in the RBA’s history -- the currency tumbled to a 2-year low. Traders and economists expect the central bank to keep hiking, and yet hedge funds and currency traders have gone well short the AUD since May. Part of that may be because of concern that RBA hikes will push Australia into recession, but it’s likely that the dire global outlook is playing at least as large a role.

함의: 호주 달러는 중앙은행의 금리인상에도 불구 약세를 보이고 있으며, 이는 경기침체 위험이 통화에 더 크게 작용하고 있다는 의미임.