Bottom-line: 생산자 물가지표가 2년 넘는 기간래 최대로 하락하면서 인플레이션 압력이 완화되었음을 알림.
US Producer Prices Fall for First Time Since Early in Pandemic. A key measure of US business prices unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than two years, largely reflecting a drop in energy costs and representing a welcome moderation in inflationary pressures. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier and rose 9.8% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% monthly gain and a 10.4% year-over-year advance. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. Both figures were softer than forecast.
US Producer Prices Fall for First Time Since Early in Pandemic. A key measure of US business prices unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than two years, largely reflecting a drop in energy costs and representing a welcome moderation in inflationary pressures. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier and rose 9.8% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% monthly gain and a 10.4% year-over-year advance. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. Both figures were softer than forecast.
Bottom-line: 고용지표 서프라이즈로 잠시 부상했던 9월 통화정책회의 전 금리인상 확률은 사라짐.
Fed Funds Futures Buying Continues, Fading an Intermeeting Hike. A large buy flow in August fed funds futures in US trading Thursday comes as traders downgrade the chances of a rate hike by the Fed before its next scheduled meeting in September. Screen flows have included one 20,000 lift shortly before 7am ET.
Fed Funds Futures Buying Continues, Fading an Intermeeting Hike. A large buy flow in August fed funds futures in US trading Thursday comes as traders downgrade the chances of a rate hike by the Fed before its next scheduled meeting in September. Screen flows have included one 20,000 lift shortly before 7am ET.
Bottom-line: 2분기 실적이 예상을 하회한 기업들의 주가는 당일 평균 0.6% 상승하며 2017년 이후 평균 -1.2% 하락하던 반응과 반대, 이는 실적 발표 전 투자자들이 이미 부정적 사실을 반영하고 있었단 뜻임.
This year, second-quarter earnings from companies whose results have trailed analysts’ estimates have been rewarded with the biggest stock price gains in at least five years. S&P 500 firms that fell short of expectations gained 0.6% after reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. This suggests investors had already priced in negative sentiment into the market before the earnings season kicked off.
This year, second-quarter earnings from companies whose results have trailed analysts’ estimates have been rewarded with the biggest stock price gains in at least five years. S&P 500 firms that fell short of expectations gained 0.6% after reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. This suggests investors had already priced in negative sentiment into the market before the earnings season kicked off.
Bottom-line: 피보나치 기준 50% 되돌림 지점까지 오자 중앙은행이 여전히 긴축 중인데 우리가 너무 온 것이 아닌가하며 하락 반전.
Stocks wiped out gains on speculation the rally that followed softer inflation data went too far, with the Federal Reserve still set to keep its monetary policy tight. Bond yields climbed. The S&P 500 edged lower after an advance that topped 1% earlier in the day and put the gauge near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the current bear market. Several analysts attributed the recent surge to short-covering. Tech underperformed following a runup that sent the Nasdaq 100 more than 20% above its June lows. Big names like Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. sank.
Stocks wiped out gains on speculation the rally that followed softer inflation data went too far, with the Federal Reserve still set to keep its monetary policy tight. Bond yields climbed. The S&P 500 edged lower after an advance that topped 1% earlier in the day and put the gauge near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for the current bear market. Several analysts attributed the recent surge to short-covering. Tech underperformed following a runup that sent the Nasdaq 100 more than 20% above its June lows. Big names like Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. sank.
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Bottom-line: 대확산 시기 금리와 주가는 동시에 상승하며 높은 상관관계를 가짐, 올해도 여전히 상관관계는 높지만 역의 관계임. 그러므로 9월 금리인상 확정 전까지 금리상승은 주식에 악영향을 줌.
Interest Rates Don’t Always Move Stocks But Are Moving Them Now. Since the onset of the pandemic, stocks and yields have moved higher in tandem, with the US 10-year yield and the S&P at nearly a perfect correlation. But since the beginning of this year, that has completely changed. The correlation is still high, but now it’s inverted. The implication is that stocks will be in trouble if rates rise into the all-but-certain Fed rate hike in September.
Interest Rates Don’t Always Move Stocks But Are Moving Them Now. Since the onset of the pandemic, stocks and yields have moved higher in tandem, with the US 10-year yield and the S&P at nearly a perfect correlation. But since the beginning of this year, that has completely changed. The correlation is still high, but now it’s inverted. The implication is that stocks will be in trouble if rates rise into the all-but-certain Fed rate hike in September.
Bottom-line: 중국의 군사훈련 종료로 긴장이 완화된 듯 보이나, 미국 및 중국 정책입안자들은 서로의 경제의존도를 줄이려는 노력을 멈추지 않고 있음.
Tensions surrounding Taiwan eased a bit this week as China on Tuesday concluded its military exercises held around the island. Taiwan’s benchmark equity index closed above its 50-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since May 31. For policy makers in both Beijing and Washington, however, the push to reduce economic dependence on each other appears far from over. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip and China’s military responses added tension and put decoupling on a fast track.
Tensions surrounding Taiwan eased a bit this week as China on Tuesday concluded its military exercises held around the island. Taiwan’s benchmark equity index closed above its 50-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since May 31. For policy makers in both Beijing and Washington, however, the push to reduce economic dependence on each other appears far from over. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip and China’s military responses added tension and put decoupling on a fast track.
Bottom-line: 만일 경기침체가 발생한다면 주가는 큰 폭으로 하락해 S&P 500 기준 3,262포인트에 도달할 것, 다만 최근 금융시장환경지표는 7월 고점 이후 급격히 완화되어 참여자들이 중앙은행의 가파른 금리인상에 따른 침체를 덜 걱정하고 있음을 나타냄.
The S&P 500 should fall a lot further to price in a US recession. The US equity index has slid 32% on an average from a peak to a trough during the past eight recessions going back to 1969. Should the benchmark fall by a similar degree from the January high, the gauge would reach 3,262, compared with 4,207 currently. A gauge of financial stress -- analogous to financial conditions -- has fallen to the lowest level in almost four months since peaking in early July. It’s almost as though markets are saying looser financial conditions are needed to avoid a recession while the Fed is working hard to rein in inflation.
The S&P 500 should fall a lot further to price in a US recession. The US equity index has slid 32% on an average from a peak to a trough during the past eight recessions going back to 1969. Should the benchmark fall by a similar degree from the January high, the gauge would reach 3,262, compared with 4,207 currently. A gauge of financial stress -- analogous to financial conditions -- has fallen to the lowest level in almost four months since peaking in early July. It’s almost as though markets are saying looser financial conditions are needed to avoid a recession while the Fed is working hard to rein in inflation.
Bottom-line: He’s Back.
Samsung Electronics Co. Vice Chairman Jay Y. Lee had his right to work at the company restored by South Korea, opening the way for him to formally take the helm of the country’s largest conglomerate roiled by global demand and supply shocks. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has cleared the heir to the country’s biggest company of bribery charges, for which Lee spent 18 months in prison before his release on parole a year ago. Samsung’s shares rose 1.3% in Seoul on the news.
Samsung Electronics Co. Vice Chairman Jay Y. Lee had his right to work at the company restored by South Korea, opening the way for him to formally take the helm of the country’s largest conglomerate roiled by global demand and supply shocks. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has cleared the heir to the country’s biggest company of bribery charges, for which Lee spent 18 months in prison before his release on parole a year ago. Samsung’s shares rose 1.3% in Seoul on the news.
Bottom-line: 약세론자가 주의해야 할 점이 있는데, 목표 변동성이나 위험균등을 목표로 하는 기계적 펀드가 최근 랠리에도 낮은 시장 변동성이 유지됨에 따라 일간 20억~40억 달러 매수가 이어지고 있고, 핵심 라인(100ma)을 상회하여 추세가 형성 될 경우 CTA 펀드 매수도 추가로 이어질 수 있음. CTA의 경우 최대 2,000억 달러 규모 매수 여력이 있음.
The issue is the giant pool of systematic funds that moves in and out of the market based on how turbulent prices are. With peace at hand of late amid a four-week rally, so-called volatility-target funds and similar strategies such as risk parity are buying between $2 billion to $4 billion of stocks per day, according to an estimate by JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Kate Gandolfo. “That can last perhaps another 100 days if volatility stays low,” Gandolfo wrote in a note, adding options dealers are currently stuck in “long gamma” positions that leave them needing to go against the prevailing equity trend to maintain a neutral market exposure. “Vol could stay contained/supportive of the market.”. Vol-target funds are not the only force that bears have to worry about. Trend-following funds such as commodity trading advisers have also added fuel to the latest rally by unwinding their short positions while indexes such as the S&P 500 reclaimed key trendlines like the 100-day average. By JPMorgan’s estimate, CTAs could snap up as much as $200 billion of stocks if the market stays buoyant.
The issue is the giant pool of systematic funds that moves in and out of the market based on how turbulent prices are. With peace at hand of late amid a four-week rally, so-called volatility-target funds and similar strategies such as risk parity are buying between $2 billion to $4 billion of stocks per day, according to an estimate by JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Kate Gandolfo. “That can last perhaps another 100 days if volatility stays low,” Gandolfo wrote in a note, adding options dealers are currently stuck in “long gamma” positions that leave them needing to go against the prevailing equity trend to maintain a neutral market exposure. “Vol could stay contained/supportive of the market.”. Vol-target funds are not the only force that bears have to worry about. Trend-following funds such as commodity trading advisers have also added fuel to the latest rally by unwinding their short positions while indexes such as the S&P 500 reclaimed key trendlines like the 100-day average. By JPMorgan’s estimate, CTAs could snap up as much as $200 billion of stocks if the market stays buoyant.
Bottom-line: 최근 미국과 유럽 주가지수의 성과차이는 금융환경이 완화적인 미국과 압박이 심해지는 유럽으로 설명할 수 있으며, 성과차이를 좁히기 위해서는 금융환경부터 보다 완화적으로 바뀌어야 할 것임.
Europe’s stock rally may be lagging the US, but its performance looks much more impressive when you see it hasn’t had the tailwinds enjoyed by its equity cousins Stateside. US stocks have been boosted by a massive easing in financial conditions, with a Bloomberg gauge of such rebounding sharply from its early July low. Conversely, European financial conditions continue to tighten, with the region’s equivalent index around levels last seen a decade ago -- barring a brief period during the peak pandemic fears in 2020. That kind of price action must be respected, but it’s still hard to see much further upside if financial conditions continue to tighten -- especially as we get through the summer and traders start to focus on the year end.
Europe’s stock rally may be lagging the US, but its performance looks much more impressive when you see it hasn’t had the tailwinds enjoyed by its equity cousins Stateside. US stocks have been boosted by a massive easing in financial conditions, with a Bloomberg gauge of such rebounding sharply from its early July low. Conversely, European financial conditions continue to tighten, with the region’s equivalent index around levels last seen a decade ago -- barring a brief period during the peak pandemic fears in 2020. That kind of price action must be respected, but it’s still hard to see much further upside if financial conditions continue to tighten -- especially as we get through the summer and traders start to focus on the year end.