Bottom-line: 멘토와 멘티의 상반 된 시장 대응이 흥미로운데, 멘토인 조지 소로스가 2분기에 아마존, 구글, 세일즈포스 및 테슬라(포트폴리오 내 0.4% 비중)에 대한 포지션을 구축한데 반해, 멘티인 스탠리 드러켄밀러는 1분기 구글 매도에 이어 2분기엔 아마존을 전량 매각하고 마이크로소프트 또한 비중을 축소함.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office took a different approach than the investment firm of his former mentor, George Soros, as US stocks entered a bear market and reached their lows of 2022. Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office sold its entire $199 million position in Amazon.com Inc. in the three months through June, while scaling back its stake in Microsoft Corp., according to the firm’s 13F filing Monday. Offloading big tech was a theme for the legendary investor in the first quarter, too, when the firm dumped about $274 million of Alphabet Inc. shares. Soros Fund Management, by contrast, bolstered its stakes in Amazon, Salesforce Inc. and Alphabet in the second quarter, with all three ranking among its top 10 holdings as of the end of June. The firm also added a new $20 million position in Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc., though that represents only about 0.4% of Soros’s $4.6 billion US equities portfolio.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office took a different approach than the investment firm of his former mentor, George Soros, as US stocks entered a bear market and reached their lows of 2022. Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office sold its entire $199 million position in Amazon.com Inc. in the three months through June, while scaling back its stake in Microsoft Corp., according to the firm’s 13F filing Monday. Offloading big tech was a theme for the legendary investor in the first quarter, too, when the firm dumped about $274 million of Alphabet Inc. shares. Soros Fund Management, by contrast, bolstered its stakes in Amazon, Salesforce Inc. and Alphabet in the second quarter, with all three ranking among its top 10 holdings as of the end of June. The firm also added a new $20 million position in Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc., though that represents only about 0.4% of Soros’s $4.6 billion US equities portfolio.
Bottom-line: 대부분의 투자자들이 금리인상과 성장률 둔화를 빌미로 주식비중(특히 기술주)을 줄이는 동안 체이스 콜먼 3세와 조지 소로스는 해당 업종의 비중을 확대했고, 공시를 토대로 보면 매입 시점 이후 기술주 중심의 시장 랠리가 시작됐음.
Investment firms Tiger Global Management LLC and Soros Fund Management piled into some of the biggest technology companies weeks before big tech spiked on optimism the Federal Reserve’s tightening won’t be as aggressive as previously thought, the latest 13F filings show. Tiger Global spent $241 million to buy 2.2 million of Alphabet Inc.’s shares, the filing shows, in what was one of only a handful of new positions the firm established in the three months through June. George Soros’s fund bolstered its stakes in Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc., among other large tech companies. The move by Tiger Global, Soros and a few other investment firms stands in contrast with their broader peers that cut exposure in the sector at a time when concern about rising interest rates and slowing growth sent their shares into a nosedive. On aggregate, investment firms decreased tech holdings by 1.6% in the second quarter, Bloomberg’s analysis of 13F filings show. Since the mid-June nadir, tech stocks have enjoyed the second-biggest rally among the S&P 500’s industry groups.
Investment firms Tiger Global Management LLC and Soros Fund Management piled into some of the biggest technology companies weeks before big tech spiked on optimism the Federal Reserve’s tightening won’t be as aggressive as previously thought, the latest 13F filings show. Tiger Global spent $241 million to buy 2.2 million of Alphabet Inc.’s shares, the filing shows, in what was one of only a handful of new positions the firm established in the three months through June. George Soros’s fund bolstered its stakes in Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc., among other large tech companies. The move by Tiger Global, Soros and a few other investment firms stands in contrast with their broader peers that cut exposure in the sector at a time when concern about rising interest rates and slowing growth sent their shares into a nosedive. On aggregate, investment firms decreased tech holdings by 1.6% in the second quarter, Bloomberg’s analysis of 13F filings show. Since the mid-June nadir, tech stocks have enjoyed the second-biggest rally among the S&P 500’s industry groups.
Hedge fund Elliott Management has dumped almost all of its position in Japan’s SoftBank, the Financial Times reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the trade.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 통화정책에 따른 경기둔화, 기업 이익률 축소로 파산위험과 실직이 증가하고, 상장사 중 20%가 영업이익으로 이자를 감당하지 못함. 이런 좀비 기업들은 특히 기술, 소프트웨어, 헬스케어에 집중되어 이들의 저조한 수익률은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 최악을 기록 중임.
Lingering Zombie Risks Amplified as Fed Hikes Set to Go On. A combination of slowing growth induced by the Fed’s aggressive tightening and dwindling margins appears set to raise the risk of bankruptcies and job losses in the US. More than a fifth of America’s largest publicly-traded companies failed to cover interest expenses with their operating income, based on their latest quarterly results. The highest concentration of these so-called zombie companies are found in technology, communications and health care. The underperformance of such stocks this year is the worst since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.
Lingering Zombie Risks Amplified as Fed Hikes Set to Go On. A combination of slowing growth induced by the Fed’s aggressive tightening and dwindling margins appears set to raise the risk of bankruptcies and job losses in the US. More than a fifth of America’s largest publicly-traded companies failed to cover interest expenses with their operating income, based on their latest quarterly results. The highest concentration of these so-called zombie companies are found in technology, communications and health care. The underperformance of such stocks this year is the worst since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.
Bottom-line: 잭슨홀 미팅에서 중앙은행이 통제해야 할 것을 놓치는 비용이 시장의 안정보다 더욱 크다는 것을 참여자들에게 설득시킨다면, 경제지표 악재가 호재로 받아들여지는 패턴이 지속되기 어려울 것임.
In the short term, cyclical disappointment tends to cause a positive equity market reaction. However, if the Fed can believably persuade the markets that they are insensitive to this, the weakness will start to eat into stocks. While Fed speakers and the minutes this week could contribute to this, Jackson Hole could be the definitive forum at which Powell should demonstrate resolve. It’s possible that his keynote address will focus on: inflation, the risk of the wage price spiral, and the costs of inflation expectations getting out of hand (h/t to Yelena Shulyatyeva). If he can convince markets that these risks far exceeding the costs of bumpy landing, then markets will become less enamored of weak economic data.
In the short term, cyclical disappointment tends to cause a positive equity market reaction. However, if the Fed can believably persuade the markets that they are insensitive to this, the weakness will start to eat into stocks. While Fed speakers and the minutes this week could contribute to this, Jackson Hole could be the definitive forum at which Powell should demonstrate resolve. It’s possible that his keynote address will focus on: inflation, the risk of the wage price spiral, and the costs of inflation expectations getting out of hand (h/t to Yelena Shulyatyeva). If he can convince markets that these risks far exceeding the costs of bumpy landing, then markets will become less enamored of weak economic data.
Bottom-line: 앤트 그룹을 보유한 투자사들이 평가 가치를 무참하게 할인하여 재평가 중임.
Fintech giant Ant Group Co.’s valuation was trimmed again by global investors who bought private shares ahead of its suspended initial public offering.
Boston-based Fidelity Investments cut its estimate for Ant to $70 billion at the end of May, according to Bloomberg calculations based on filings. That’s down from $78 billion in June last year, and $235 billion just before Ant’s IPO was torpedoed by regulators in November 2020. BlackRock Inc. lowered the value to $151 billion as of March from $174 billion, while T. Rowe Price Group Inc. trimmed it to $112 billion as of May, compared with $189 billion last year. The woes for Ant and its investors are adding up. The company’s profit fell 17% for the March quarter amid an ongoing yearslong regulatory overhaul. The $150 billion price tag marks an important threshold since investors including Warburg Pincus, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Silver Lake and Temasek Holdings Pte were said to have invested in Ant at that price four years ago.
Fintech giant Ant Group Co.’s valuation was trimmed again by global investors who bought private shares ahead of its suspended initial public offering.
Boston-based Fidelity Investments cut its estimate for Ant to $70 billion at the end of May, according to Bloomberg calculations based on filings. That’s down from $78 billion in June last year, and $235 billion just before Ant’s IPO was torpedoed by regulators in November 2020. BlackRock Inc. lowered the value to $151 billion as of March from $174 billion, while T. Rowe Price Group Inc. trimmed it to $112 billion as of May, compared with $189 billion last year. The woes for Ant and its investors are adding up. The company’s profit fell 17% for the March quarter amid an ongoing yearslong regulatory overhaul. The $150 billion price tag marks an important threshold since investors including Warburg Pincus, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Silver Lake and Temasek Holdings Pte were said to have invested in Ant at that price four years ago.
Bottom-line: 넷플릭스는 5월 저점에서 새로운 성장동력 공표, 예상을 상회하는 실적, 흥행을 기록한 시리즈로 50% 가까이 상승하며 9억 9,600만달러에 달하는 극단적인 공매도 포지션을 태워버림.
Netflix Burns Shorts as ‘Extreme’ Bearishness Ebbs. Investors who bet against Netflix Inc. in recent months might now be licking their wounds. Shares of the streaming giant have surged 50% from their May low, buoyed by the promise of new features to revive growth, better-than-expected quarterly results and the runaway success of the latest installment of sci-fi thriller “Stranger Things.”. That’s hurting short sellers, who borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price to profit from the difference. Since mid-May, they have seen $996 million in mark-to-market losses, according to S3 Partners. “Bearishness was extreme,” said Neil Campling, head of technology, media and telecom research at Mirabaud Securities. “The stock got to extreme oversold levels, and traded at a massive discount to trend valuation, to peers, and to history.”
Netflix Burns Shorts as ‘Extreme’ Bearishness Ebbs. Investors who bet against Netflix Inc. in recent months might now be licking their wounds. Shares of the streaming giant have surged 50% from their May low, buoyed by the promise of new features to revive growth, better-than-expected quarterly results and the runaway success of the latest installment of sci-fi thriller “Stranger Things.”. That’s hurting short sellers, who borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price to profit from the difference. Since mid-May, they have seen $996 million in mark-to-market losses, according to S3 Partners. “Bearishness was extreme,” said Neil Campling, head of technology, media and telecom research at Mirabaud Securities. “The stock got to extreme oversold levels, and traded at a massive discount to trend valuation, to peers, and to history.”
Bottom-line: 유럽 내 전력 가격 기준이 처음으로 500유로를 상회하며 전년 대비 500% 비싸졌고, 자체 수급 가능한 에너지원도 최저 상태라 이례적 에너지 위기가 가계와 기업에 내년까지 영향을 끼칠 것으로 보임.
Europe’s benchmark power price surged above 500 euros for the first time, raising the stakes even further as the worst energy crisis in decades is set to sting households and businesses with unprecedented costs well into the next year. German year-ahead power rose as much as 5.2% to 502 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG on Tuesday. That’s roughly a 500% gain in the last year, driven predominantly by Russia’s limits to natural gas exports. Governments are under pressure to plan for possible blackouts this winter in some European countries. Output from France’s nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region’s power system, remains on course to be the lowest in decades, while hydropower stocks in some countries are also at multi-year lows.
Europe’s benchmark power price surged above 500 euros for the first time, raising the stakes even further as the worst energy crisis in decades is set to sting households and businesses with unprecedented costs well into the next year. German year-ahead power rose as much as 5.2% to 502 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG on Tuesday. That’s roughly a 500% gain in the last year, driven predominantly by Russia’s limits to natural gas exports. Governments are under pressure to plan for possible blackouts this winter in some European countries. Output from France’s nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region’s power system, remains on course to be the lowest in decades, while hydropower stocks in some countries are also at multi-year lows.
Bottom-line: 기름왕의 Flex.
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund invested more than $7 billion to build new positions in US stocks including Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc., BlackRock Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as markets were battered by recession fears. The $620 billion Public Investment Fund also added to positions it held in Facebook Inc. owner Meta Platforms Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc. and Electronic Arts Inc. in the second quarter, according to a 13F filing. The acquisitions show that the PIF, as the fund is known, is doubling down on its bet on technology investments despite a rout in valuations. Chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the PIF is plowing deeper into public markets as it pursues the goal of more than doubling its assets by 2025. The wealth fund is boosting its investments in equities as Saudi Arabia’s income from oil almost doubled in the second quarter. Soaring crude prices are set to give the kingdom its first budget surplus in almost a decade.
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund invested more than $7 billion to build new positions in US stocks including Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc., BlackRock Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as markets were battered by recession fears. The $620 billion Public Investment Fund also added to positions it held in Facebook Inc. owner Meta Platforms Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc. and Electronic Arts Inc. in the second quarter, according to a 13F filing. The acquisitions show that the PIF, as the fund is known, is doubling down on its bet on technology investments despite a rout in valuations. Chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the PIF is plowing deeper into public markets as it pursues the goal of more than doubling its assets by 2025. The wealth fund is boosting its investments in equities as Saudi Arabia’s income from oil almost doubled in the second quarter. Soaring crude prices are set to give the kingdom its first budget surplus in almost a decade.
Bottom-line: 월마트와 홈디포가 예상을 상회하는 실적을 발표하며 여타 실적발표 전인 소매판매기업을 견인, 리테일 투자자들의 선호 주식인 베드 배스 & 비욘드도 급등하며 위험 선호 확대, S&P 500 지수는 향후 6개월 간 강세를 나타내는 50일 이동평균선 위에서 200일 이동평균선까지 근접함.
Stocks Climb Higher on Back of Big-Box Retailers. US stocks bounced higher as the latest round of earnings spurred gains in big-box retailers and emboldened risk sentiment. The S&P 500 extended gains, with a gauge of retailers rallying more than 3%. The Nasdaq 100 traded little changed after falling more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed major benchmarks, jumping 0.9%. Investors took heart from Walmart Inc. exceeding Wall Street’s diminished profit expectations and modestly improving its full-year forecast, while Home Depot Inc. posted results that beat estimates even as the US housing market shows signs of cooling off. Those results helped spur gains in a swath of retailers, including the Target Corp. and Lowe’s Cos. ahead of their earnings due Wednesday. E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. also bounced, while meme stock darling Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. surged so much it triggered a trading halt.
On the technical side, the gains have pushed the S&P 500 to levels above the 50-day moving average that have historically been a bullish sign over the next six months.
Stocks Climb Higher on Back of Big-Box Retailers. US stocks bounced higher as the latest round of earnings spurred gains in big-box retailers and emboldened risk sentiment. The S&P 500 extended gains, with a gauge of retailers rallying more than 3%. The Nasdaq 100 traded little changed after falling more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed major benchmarks, jumping 0.9%. Investors took heart from Walmart Inc. exceeding Wall Street’s diminished profit expectations and modestly improving its full-year forecast, while Home Depot Inc. posted results that beat estimates even as the US housing market shows signs of cooling off. Those results helped spur gains in a swath of retailers, including the Target Corp. and Lowe’s Cos. ahead of their earnings due Wednesday. E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. also bounced, while meme stock darling Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. surged so much it triggered a trading halt.
On the technical side, the gains have pushed the S&P 500 to levels above the 50-day moving average that have historically been a bullish sign over the next six months.
Bottom-line: 주가지수는 작년 11월 이후 처음으로 상대강도기준 과매수 영역에 들어섰고, 올해 4월 이후 올라선 적이 없는 200일 이동평균선 탈환에 실패함.
Stock Rally Might Have Tough Fight Amid Stretched Macro Signals. Gains in stocks might be tougher from here because the S&P 500 is the most overbought since early November. The 14-day relative strength index, or the measure of the velocity of movement, on a daily chart for the S&P 500 Index has been above 70 for a third day. RSI’s above 70 can indicate valuations are too high. Investors often use RSI to recognize potential turning points to help make entry/exit decisions. The work off of these conditions can take a few days. Moreover, stocks failed at the 200-dma today. A move above that level would have been bullish for many investors as that level has not been usurped since April. That, coupled with overbought conditions, are good reasons for investors to take pause on stock gains.
Stock Rally Might Have Tough Fight Amid Stretched Macro Signals. Gains in stocks might be tougher from here because the S&P 500 is the most overbought since early November. The 14-day relative strength index, or the measure of the velocity of movement, on a daily chart for the S&P 500 Index has been above 70 for a third day. RSI’s above 70 can indicate valuations are too high. Investors often use RSI to recognize potential turning points to help make entry/exit decisions. The work off of these conditions can take a few days. Moreover, stocks failed at the 200-dma today. A move above that level would have been bullish for many investors as that level has not been usurped since April. That, coupled with overbought conditions, are good reasons for investors to take pause on stock gains.
Bottom-line: 재량적 펀드 운용자들의 주식 노출도가 8주간 20%에서 72%로 급격히 높아졌으며, 이는 2021년 4월 이후 가장 빠른 속도임. 주가지수는 200일 이동평균선을 20포인트 남겨두고 있으며, 이를 돌파할 경우 알고리즘 매수 트리거가 되어 지난 8주의 재량적 자금 외 시스템 펀드 자금으로 인한 모멘텀이 생김.
Chasing Stocks Back in Vogue From Big Managers to Options Geeks. Stocks rose for a third day, with the S&P 500 extending gains into a fifth straight week. Up about 17% from its 2022 low reached in June, the index now sits about 20 points below its 200-day average, currently near 4,326 -- a threshold that some see would flash a bullish signal on long-term momentum and prompt rules-based traders to step up purchases. The latest rally, which began as a short squeeze, has picked up steam as data showed a robust labor market and cooler-than-expected inflation. According to a survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, equity exposure jumped to 72% from 20% over past eight weeks, the fastest increase since April 2021.
Chasing Stocks Back in Vogue From Big Managers to Options Geeks. Stocks rose for a third day, with the S&P 500 extending gains into a fifth straight week. Up about 17% from its 2022 low reached in June, the index now sits about 20 points below its 200-day average, currently near 4,326 -- a threshold that some see would flash a bullish signal on long-term momentum and prompt rules-based traders to step up purchases. The latest rally, which began as a short squeeze, has picked up steam as data showed a robust labor market and cooler-than-expected inflation. According to a survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, equity exposure jumped to 72% from 20% over past eight weeks, the fastest increase since April 2021.
Bottom-line: 중국이 대만을 위협하며 제재한 품목은 대만 경제의 1% 정도로 미미하며, 만일 범위를 반도체로 넓힐 경우 대체재를 찾을 수 없어 되려 중국 경제가 피해를 입게되므로 실상 허울 뿐인 제재라 할 수 있음.
China’s military drills after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan sparked alarm around the region, although its trade retaliation barely made a dent -- mostly because Beijing doesn’t want to hurt itself. The value of trade targeted by China’s sanctions contributes a tiny amount of less than 1% to Taiwan’s gross domestic product, according to economists, taking the sting out of China’s announcements. Beijing could ramp up actions by targeting more food products, wood or minerals. But levies on any big-ticket items that would cause real damage to Taipei -- such as semiconductors -- are near-unthinkable, given China’s reliance on the island for cutting-edge technology. “The chance remains relatively low” for China to target Taiwanese tech, said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “If you look at Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply, it’s very much dominant. It would be very difficult for China to find the alternative supply if it bans the Taiwan-made semiconductors.". Beijing still has a few tools it could deploy to pressure Taipei. China and Hong Kong account for around 40% of Taiwan’s total exports, though Taipei has made efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China in recent years. More restrictions would be an economic headache for Taiwan, which is already grappling with slowing global demand for electronics and high inflation, cooling its growth outlook.
China’s military drills after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan sparked alarm around the region, although its trade retaliation barely made a dent -- mostly because Beijing doesn’t want to hurt itself. The value of trade targeted by China’s sanctions contributes a tiny amount of less than 1% to Taiwan’s gross domestic product, according to economists, taking the sting out of China’s announcements. Beijing could ramp up actions by targeting more food products, wood or minerals. But levies on any big-ticket items that would cause real damage to Taipei -- such as semiconductors -- are near-unthinkable, given China’s reliance on the island for cutting-edge technology. “The chance remains relatively low” for China to target Taiwanese tech, said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “If you look at Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply, it’s very much dominant. It would be very difficult for China to find the alternative supply if it bans the Taiwan-made semiconductors.". Beijing still has a few tools it could deploy to pressure Taipei. China and Hong Kong account for around 40% of Taiwan’s total exports, though Taipei has made efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China in recent years. More restrictions would be an economic headache for Taiwan, which is already grappling with slowing global demand for electronics and high inflation, cooling its growth outlook.
Bottom-line: 유럽에 투자하는 투자자들은 실제로 유럽에 상장되어 있지만 해외 매출 비중이 높은 기업을 매수하면서 점차 높아지는 유럽의 침체 가능성을 최대한 회피 중이라는 것을 알 수 있음.
European stocks may be pushing higher in the face of a looming recession but underneath the surface investors are showing a clear preference for shares with sales exposure outside the region. Goldman Sachs’ basket of European shares with a large proportion of non-European sales has been in a steady uptrend since May versus a cohort of domestically-exposed stocks and is just below what is at least a 13-year relative high. It has climbed 11% this quarter, compared to a 6% rise in the domestic basket and a 9% gain for the Stoxx 600. Economists are saying a euro-zone recession is now more likely than not, according to a latest poll by Bloomberg. The probability of output shrinking for two straight quarters has risen to 60% from 45% in a previous survey and up from 20% before Russia invaded Ukraine.
European stocks may be pushing higher in the face of a looming recession but underneath the surface investors are showing a clear preference for shares with sales exposure outside the region. Goldman Sachs’ basket of European shares with a large proportion of non-European sales has been in a steady uptrend since May versus a cohort of domestically-exposed stocks and is just below what is at least a 13-year relative high. It has climbed 11% this quarter, compared to a 6% rise in the domestic basket and a 9% gain for the Stoxx 600. Economists are saying a euro-zone recession is now more likely than not, according to a latest poll by Bloomberg. The probability of output shrinking for two straight quarters has risen to 60% from 45% in a previous survey and up from 20% before Russia invaded Ukraine.