Bottom-line: 유럽 내 전력 가격 기준이 처음으로 500유로를 상회하며 전년 대비 500% 비싸졌고, 자체 수급 가능한 에너지원도 최저 상태라 이례적 에너지 위기가 가계와 기업에 내년까지 영향을 끼칠 것으로 보임.
Europe’s benchmark power price surged above 500 euros for the first time, raising the stakes even further as the worst energy crisis in decades is set to sting households and businesses with unprecedented costs well into the next year. German year-ahead power rose as much as 5.2% to 502 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG on Tuesday. That’s roughly a 500% gain in the last year, driven predominantly by Russia’s limits to natural gas exports. Governments are under pressure to plan for possible blackouts this winter in some European countries. Output from France’s nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region’s power system, remains on course to be the lowest in decades, while hydropower stocks in some countries are also at multi-year lows.
Europe’s benchmark power price surged above 500 euros for the first time, raising the stakes even further as the worst energy crisis in decades is set to sting households and businesses with unprecedented costs well into the next year. German year-ahead power rose as much as 5.2% to 502 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG on Tuesday. That’s roughly a 500% gain in the last year, driven predominantly by Russia’s limits to natural gas exports. Governments are under pressure to plan for possible blackouts this winter in some European countries. Output from France’s nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region’s power system, remains on course to be the lowest in decades, while hydropower stocks in some countries are also at multi-year lows.
Bottom-line: 기름왕의 Flex.
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund invested more than $7 billion to build new positions in US stocks including Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc., BlackRock Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as markets were battered by recession fears. The $620 billion Public Investment Fund also added to positions it held in Facebook Inc. owner Meta Platforms Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc. and Electronic Arts Inc. in the second quarter, according to a 13F filing. The acquisitions show that the PIF, as the fund is known, is doubling down on its bet on technology investments despite a rout in valuations. Chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the PIF is plowing deeper into public markets as it pursues the goal of more than doubling its assets by 2025. The wealth fund is boosting its investments in equities as Saudi Arabia’s income from oil almost doubled in the second quarter. Soaring crude prices are set to give the kingdom its first budget surplus in almost a decade.
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund invested more than $7 billion to build new positions in US stocks including Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc., BlackRock Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as markets were battered by recession fears. The $620 billion Public Investment Fund also added to positions it held in Facebook Inc. owner Meta Platforms Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc. and Electronic Arts Inc. in the second quarter, according to a 13F filing. The acquisitions show that the PIF, as the fund is known, is doubling down on its bet on technology investments despite a rout in valuations. Chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the PIF is plowing deeper into public markets as it pursues the goal of more than doubling its assets by 2025. The wealth fund is boosting its investments in equities as Saudi Arabia’s income from oil almost doubled in the second quarter. Soaring crude prices are set to give the kingdom its first budget surplus in almost a decade.
Bottom-line: 월마트와 홈디포가 예상을 상회하는 실적을 발표하며 여타 실적발표 전인 소매판매기업을 견인, 리테일 투자자들의 선호 주식인 베드 배스 & 비욘드도 급등하며 위험 선호 확대, S&P 500 지수는 향후 6개월 간 강세를 나타내는 50일 이동평균선 위에서 200일 이동평균선까지 근접함.
Stocks Climb Higher on Back of Big-Box Retailers. US stocks bounced higher as the latest round of earnings spurred gains in big-box retailers and emboldened risk sentiment. The S&P 500 extended gains, with a gauge of retailers rallying more than 3%. The Nasdaq 100 traded little changed after falling more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed major benchmarks, jumping 0.9%. Investors took heart from Walmart Inc. exceeding Wall Street’s diminished profit expectations and modestly improving its full-year forecast, while Home Depot Inc. posted results that beat estimates even as the US housing market shows signs of cooling off. Those results helped spur gains in a swath of retailers, including the Target Corp. and Lowe’s Cos. ahead of their earnings due Wednesday. E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. also bounced, while meme stock darling Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. surged so much it triggered a trading halt.
On the technical side, the gains have pushed the S&P 500 to levels above the 50-day moving average that have historically been a bullish sign over the next six months.
Stocks Climb Higher on Back of Big-Box Retailers. US stocks bounced higher as the latest round of earnings spurred gains in big-box retailers and emboldened risk sentiment. The S&P 500 extended gains, with a gauge of retailers rallying more than 3%. The Nasdaq 100 traded little changed after falling more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed major benchmarks, jumping 0.9%. Investors took heart from Walmart Inc. exceeding Wall Street’s diminished profit expectations and modestly improving its full-year forecast, while Home Depot Inc. posted results that beat estimates even as the US housing market shows signs of cooling off. Those results helped spur gains in a swath of retailers, including the Target Corp. and Lowe’s Cos. ahead of their earnings due Wednesday. E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. also bounced, while meme stock darling Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. surged so much it triggered a trading halt.
On the technical side, the gains have pushed the S&P 500 to levels above the 50-day moving average that have historically been a bullish sign over the next six months.
Bottom-line: 주가지수는 작년 11월 이후 처음으로 상대강도기준 과매수 영역에 들어섰고, 올해 4월 이후 올라선 적이 없는 200일 이동평균선 탈환에 실패함.
Stock Rally Might Have Tough Fight Amid Stretched Macro Signals. Gains in stocks might be tougher from here because the S&P 500 is the most overbought since early November. The 14-day relative strength index, or the measure of the velocity of movement, on a daily chart for the S&P 500 Index has been above 70 for a third day. RSI’s above 70 can indicate valuations are too high. Investors often use RSI to recognize potential turning points to help make entry/exit decisions. The work off of these conditions can take a few days. Moreover, stocks failed at the 200-dma today. A move above that level would have been bullish for many investors as that level has not been usurped since April. That, coupled with overbought conditions, are good reasons for investors to take pause on stock gains.
Stock Rally Might Have Tough Fight Amid Stretched Macro Signals. Gains in stocks might be tougher from here because the S&P 500 is the most overbought since early November. The 14-day relative strength index, or the measure of the velocity of movement, on a daily chart for the S&P 500 Index has been above 70 for a third day. RSI’s above 70 can indicate valuations are too high. Investors often use RSI to recognize potential turning points to help make entry/exit decisions. The work off of these conditions can take a few days. Moreover, stocks failed at the 200-dma today. A move above that level would have been bullish for many investors as that level has not been usurped since April. That, coupled with overbought conditions, are good reasons for investors to take pause on stock gains.
Bottom-line: 재량적 펀드 운용자들의 주식 노출도가 8주간 20%에서 72%로 급격히 높아졌으며, 이는 2021년 4월 이후 가장 빠른 속도임. 주가지수는 200일 이동평균선을 20포인트 남겨두고 있으며, 이를 돌파할 경우 알고리즘 매수 트리거가 되어 지난 8주의 재량적 자금 외 시스템 펀드 자금으로 인한 모멘텀이 생김.
Chasing Stocks Back in Vogue From Big Managers to Options Geeks. Stocks rose for a third day, with the S&P 500 extending gains into a fifth straight week. Up about 17% from its 2022 low reached in June, the index now sits about 20 points below its 200-day average, currently near 4,326 -- a threshold that some see would flash a bullish signal on long-term momentum and prompt rules-based traders to step up purchases. The latest rally, which began as a short squeeze, has picked up steam as data showed a robust labor market and cooler-than-expected inflation. According to a survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, equity exposure jumped to 72% from 20% over past eight weeks, the fastest increase since April 2021.
Chasing Stocks Back in Vogue From Big Managers to Options Geeks. Stocks rose for a third day, with the S&P 500 extending gains into a fifth straight week. Up about 17% from its 2022 low reached in June, the index now sits about 20 points below its 200-day average, currently near 4,326 -- a threshold that some see would flash a bullish signal on long-term momentum and prompt rules-based traders to step up purchases. The latest rally, which began as a short squeeze, has picked up steam as data showed a robust labor market and cooler-than-expected inflation. According to a survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, equity exposure jumped to 72% from 20% over past eight weeks, the fastest increase since April 2021.
Bottom-line: 중국이 대만을 위협하며 제재한 품목은 대만 경제의 1% 정도로 미미하며, 만일 범위를 반도체로 넓힐 경우 대체재를 찾을 수 없어 되려 중국 경제가 피해를 입게되므로 실상 허울 뿐인 제재라 할 수 있음.
China’s military drills after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan sparked alarm around the region, although its trade retaliation barely made a dent -- mostly because Beijing doesn’t want to hurt itself. The value of trade targeted by China’s sanctions contributes a tiny amount of less than 1% to Taiwan’s gross domestic product, according to economists, taking the sting out of China’s announcements. Beijing could ramp up actions by targeting more food products, wood or minerals. But levies on any big-ticket items that would cause real damage to Taipei -- such as semiconductors -- are near-unthinkable, given China’s reliance on the island for cutting-edge technology. “The chance remains relatively low” for China to target Taiwanese tech, said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “If you look at Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply, it’s very much dominant. It would be very difficult for China to find the alternative supply if it bans the Taiwan-made semiconductors.". Beijing still has a few tools it could deploy to pressure Taipei. China and Hong Kong account for around 40% of Taiwan’s total exports, though Taipei has made efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China in recent years. More restrictions would be an economic headache for Taiwan, which is already grappling with slowing global demand for electronics and high inflation, cooling its growth outlook.
China’s military drills after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan sparked alarm around the region, although its trade retaliation barely made a dent -- mostly because Beijing doesn’t want to hurt itself. The value of trade targeted by China’s sanctions contributes a tiny amount of less than 1% to Taiwan’s gross domestic product, according to economists, taking the sting out of China’s announcements. Beijing could ramp up actions by targeting more food products, wood or minerals. But levies on any big-ticket items that would cause real damage to Taipei -- such as semiconductors -- are near-unthinkable, given China’s reliance on the island for cutting-edge technology. “The chance remains relatively low” for China to target Taiwanese tech, said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “If you look at Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply, it’s very much dominant. It would be very difficult for China to find the alternative supply if it bans the Taiwan-made semiconductors.". Beijing still has a few tools it could deploy to pressure Taipei. China and Hong Kong account for around 40% of Taiwan’s total exports, though Taipei has made efforts to reduce its economic dependence on China in recent years. More restrictions would be an economic headache for Taiwan, which is already grappling with slowing global demand for electronics and high inflation, cooling its growth outlook.
Bottom-line: 유럽에 투자하는 투자자들은 실제로 유럽에 상장되어 있지만 해외 매출 비중이 높은 기업을 매수하면서 점차 높아지는 유럽의 침체 가능성을 최대한 회피 중이라는 것을 알 수 있음.
European stocks may be pushing higher in the face of a looming recession but underneath the surface investors are showing a clear preference for shares with sales exposure outside the region. Goldman Sachs’ basket of European shares with a large proportion of non-European sales has been in a steady uptrend since May versus a cohort of domestically-exposed stocks and is just below what is at least a 13-year relative high. It has climbed 11% this quarter, compared to a 6% rise in the domestic basket and a 9% gain for the Stoxx 600. Economists are saying a euro-zone recession is now more likely than not, according to a latest poll by Bloomberg. The probability of output shrinking for two straight quarters has risen to 60% from 45% in a previous survey and up from 20% before Russia invaded Ukraine.
European stocks may be pushing higher in the face of a looming recession but underneath the surface investors are showing a clear preference for shares with sales exposure outside the region. Goldman Sachs’ basket of European shares with a large proportion of non-European sales has been in a steady uptrend since May versus a cohort of domestically-exposed stocks and is just below what is at least a 13-year relative high. It has climbed 11% this quarter, compared to a 6% rise in the domestic basket and a 9% gain for the Stoxx 600. Economists are saying a euro-zone recession is now more likely than not, according to a latest poll by Bloomberg. The probability of output shrinking for two straight quarters has risen to 60% from 45% in a previous survey and up from 20% before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Bottom-line: 장기 국채와 단기 국채 금리 차이가 뒤집힌다는 것은 경기가 뒤집어진다는 의미, 반대로 금리 차이가 일어나면 경기도 일어난다는 것.
Gilts Curve Set for Deep Inversion As Inflation Hits 10%. The pound may be whipped around by dollar cross winds, but there will be no such confusion for the gilts curve which is heading for deep inversion. Core and headline CPI readings were above forecasts, yet still below the 13% level mentioned by the Bank of England. There is little choice but to raise rates again and increase the risk of an economic contraction.
Gilts Curve Set for Deep Inversion As Inflation Hits 10%. The pound may be whipped around by dollar cross winds, but there will be no such confusion for the gilts curve which is heading for deep inversion. Core and headline CPI readings were above forecasts, yet still below the 13% level mentioned by the Bank of England. There is little choice but to raise rates again and increase the risk of an economic contraction.
Bottom-line: 10.1%라는 놀라운 물가 발표 이후 트레이더들은 영국 중앙은행이 내년까지 추가로 200bp 금리인상을 할 것에 베팅 함.
Traders Bet on Two Percentage Points More of BOE Rate Hikes. Traders are betting on two percentage points more of Bank of England rate hikes after UK inflation data beat expectations.
Money markets are pricing over 200 basis points of tightening by May next year, which would take the key rate from 1.75% to 3.75%. UK inflation accelerated more than expected last month to the highest in 40 years, intensifying a squeeze on consumers and adding to pressure for action from the government and BOE.
Traders Bet on Two Percentage Points More of BOE Rate Hikes. Traders are betting on two percentage points more of Bank of England rate hikes after UK inflation data beat expectations.
Money markets are pricing over 200 basis points of tightening by May next year, which would take the key rate from 1.75% to 3.75%. UK inflation accelerated more than expected last month to the highest in 40 years, intensifying a squeeze on consumers and adding to pressure for action from the government and BOE.
Bottom-line: You joking?
Elon Musk tweeted that he was buying Manchester United before saying four and a half hours later he was kidding, adding it was part of a long-running joke on the platform. The New York-listed club's shares jumped 17% in early trading before paring most gains. Musk has a long track record of tweeting in jest, but regulators may be less amused.
Elon Musk tweeted that he was buying Manchester United before saying four and a half hours later he was kidding, adding it was part of a long-running joke on the platform. The New York-listed club's shares jumped 17% in early trading before paring most gains. Musk has a long track record of tweeting in jest, but regulators may be less amused.
Bottom-line: 근래 우리는 국채 수익률과 가치주가 반대의 성과를 보인다고 굳게 믿었고, 때문에 금리가 상승할 때 성장주 대비 가치주의 강세를 당연스럽게 이해함. 반대로 성장주의 경우 장기 채권 듀레이션 개념으로 금리가 하락할 때 더 높은 베타로 상승하면서 그 프리미엄을 받았음. 하지만 이는 10년이라는 짧은 기간을 벗어나면 전혀 결속력이 없는 근거가 되어버림. 특히 성장주의 경우 듀레이션 개념보다 유니콘의 개념을 적용하는게 맞는데, 장기적으로 폭발적인 성장을 이룰 것이란 기대가 가장 강한 프리미엄 요인이었음.
For the last few years, it’s certainly been the case that value has tended to beat growth when yields are rising, and underperform growth when yields are falling. For more than a decade, we’ve been accustomed to low bond yields and underperforming value stocks. But it hasn’t always been this way, and Cliff Asness, the legendary founder of AQR Capital Management, has just published a paper designed to show that the recent correlation is a coincidence, or at best a phenomenon that will soon pass. Over a much longer time scale, the past 90 years, correlation of the “value” factor as defined by the finance professors Eugene Fama and Kenneth French with the 10-year Treasury yield has been highly variable and never particularly strong. It is true to say that it appears to have been greatest, and most consistent, in the last decade or so. Asness accepts that the perception is so strong at present that lower rates would likely mean continued dominance for growth. But does the hypothesis that value and growth are being driven by rates and duration really justify paying up hugely for growth stocks? Asness argues that it doesn’t, and that the whole idea rests on the notion that all growth stocks are in fact more like unicorns, whose earnings will explode into the future.
For the last few years, it’s certainly been the case that value has tended to beat growth when yields are rising, and underperform growth when yields are falling. For more than a decade, we’ve been accustomed to low bond yields and underperforming value stocks. But it hasn’t always been this way, and Cliff Asness, the legendary founder of AQR Capital Management, has just published a paper designed to show that the recent correlation is a coincidence, or at best a phenomenon that will soon pass. Over a much longer time scale, the past 90 years, correlation of the “value” factor as defined by the finance professors Eugene Fama and Kenneth French with the 10-year Treasury yield has been highly variable and never particularly strong. It is true to say that it appears to have been greatest, and most consistent, in the last decade or so. Asness accepts that the perception is so strong at present that lower rates would likely mean continued dominance for growth. But does the hypothesis that value and growth are being driven by rates and duration really justify paying up hugely for growth stocks? Asness argues that it doesn’t, and that the whole idea rests on the notion that all growth stocks are in fact more like unicorns, whose earnings will explode into the future.