Bottom-line: 부진한 경제지표가 발표될 때마다 중앙은행의 금리인상을 저지할 것이란 기대를 형성하던 작용이 더는 작동하지 않고, 되려 금리인상 기간이 길어질 수 있다는데 포지션이 쌓이고 있음.
Economic Disappointments Fail to Slow Hawkish Fed Bets. Weak US economic data pulled the dollar lower, and gave bond bears reason to pause, but didn’t halt the market’s drive to price in higher long-term rates. The two-year bond auction tailed, clearing at 3.307%, which was the highest yield for a two-year since 2007 and 1.4 bps off the WI yield. Despite the lackluster auction, the Treasury curve steepened. As this chart of the overnight index swap curve shows, traders are bracing for the Fed to keep rates up for longer -- pushing back cuts.
Economic Disappointments Fail to Slow Hawkish Fed Bets. Weak US economic data pulled the dollar lower, and gave bond bears reason to pause, but didn’t halt the market’s drive to price in higher long-term rates. The two-year bond auction tailed, clearing at 3.307%, which was the highest yield for a two-year since 2007 and 1.4 bps off the WI yield. Despite the lackluster auction, the Treasury curve steepened. As this chart of the overnight index swap curve shows, traders are bracing for the Fed to keep rates up for longer -- pushing back cuts.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스의 분기 헤지펀드 모니터링 보고서에 따르면, 총 규모 및 순노출도는 줄인 반면, 상위 10개 종목이 포트폴리오에 차지하는 비중은 70%로 위험은 줄이되 선택과 집중은 더 높인 것으로 나타났음. 상위 집중 바스켓에서 아마존이 마이크로소프트를 추월해 가장 큰 비중을 차지했는데, 지난 분기 각각 +26%, +8% 상승한 것으로 보면 시의적절한 베팅이었음. 업종으로는 다시 기술주와 재량소비재(테슬라가 큰 영향) 비중을 높였음.
Hedge funds ramped up bets on megacap US tech stocks and whittled down overall holdings to focus on favored names last quarter, with conviction climbing back to levels seen at the start of the pandemic, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The funds boosted tech and consumer discretionary holdings, while cutting energy and materials wagers, strategists including Ben Snider wrote in a note Tuesday. Separately, average weightings of top 10 holdings jumped to 70% in the three months ended June, the highest concentration since the first quarter of 2020. Amazon.com Inc. supplanted Microsoft Corp. as the most popular long position, a timely call given that the former has rallied 26% this quarter versus an 8% climb in the latter. The funds also boosted bets on Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., Atlassian Corp. and Tesla Inc., according to the report. “Stymied by an uncertain market environment and poor recent returns, hedge funds have cut leverage, shifted back towards growth, and increased portfolio concentrations,” the Goldman team wrote. “Performance has recently improved, matching the typical experience during correction rebounds, though leverage has room to rise if the market remains resilient.”
Hedge funds ramped up bets on megacap US tech stocks and whittled down overall holdings to focus on favored names last quarter, with conviction climbing back to levels seen at the start of the pandemic, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The funds boosted tech and consumer discretionary holdings, while cutting energy and materials wagers, strategists including Ben Snider wrote in a note Tuesday. Separately, average weightings of top 10 holdings jumped to 70% in the three months ended June, the highest concentration since the first quarter of 2020. Amazon.com Inc. supplanted Microsoft Corp. as the most popular long position, a timely call given that the former has rallied 26% this quarter versus an 8% climb in the latter. The funds also boosted bets on Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., Atlassian Corp. and Tesla Inc., according to the report. “Stymied by an uncertain market environment and poor recent returns, hedge funds have cut leverage, shifted back towards growth, and increased portfolio concentrations,” the Goldman team wrote. “Performance has recently improved, matching the typical experience during correction rebounds, though leverage has room to rise if the market remains resilient.”
Bottom-line: 경제활동이 봉쇄로부터 풀리며 빠르게 동력을 잃으며 연간 매출액 전망 하향과 동시에 2020년 연 초 주가로 하락한 줌 비디오 커뮤니케이션, 캐시 우드의 운용사 내 2개 펀드가 이 주식을 6,825억 달러 규모로 매수함.
Cathie Wood bought Zoom Video Communications Inc’s shares as they tumbled to levels seen before the stock’s meteoric rise during the pandemic. Two Ark Investment Management LLC funds bought more than 800,000 shares on Tuesday, which were worth $68.25 million as of the day’s close, according to Ark’s daily trading data compiled by Bloomberg. The buying marked Ark’s first purchase of the video-conferencing company’s shares in three months. Zoom plunged 17% to a closing price last seen in January 2020 after the firm cut its annual revenue forecast. Once a key pandemic beneficiary, the firm has been struggling as workplaces reopen, and said it’s losing sales from consumers and small business faster than anticipated.
Cathie Wood bought Zoom Video Communications Inc’s shares as they tumbled to levels seen before the stock’s meteoric rise during the pandemic. Two Ark Investment Management LLC funds bought more than 800,000 shares on Tuesday, which were worth $68.25 million as of the day’s close, according to Ark’s daily trading data compiled by Bloomberg. The buying marked Ark’s first purchase of the video-conferencing company’s shares in three months. Zoom plunged 17% to a closing price last seen in January 2020 after the firm cut its annual revenue forecast. Once a key pandemic beneficiary, the firm has been struggling as workplaces reopen, and said it’s losing sales from consumers and small business faster than anticipated.
Bottom-line: 신흥국 주식은 선진국 주식 대비 오를 때 덜 오르고, 빠질 때 더 빠졌으나, 아래로 더 남았다고 주장함.
Emerging-market stocks missed out on the third-quarter equity bounce, but they’re not missing out on the retreat. They may have further to fall as the stuttering global economy drags down earnings while Federal Reserve tightening draws money to dollar assets. While the MSCI World Index of developed-nation equities climbed almost 12% since the start of the quarter to an August 16 high, the equivalent EM gauge added just 1.4%. Since then, the World Index is down just under 3%, while the EM index has dropped 4.1%. As a result, EM stocks are now the cheapest in two decades relative to developed-nation equities. You’d have to go back to the deflation of the dotcom bubble, and the Asian crisis before that, to find similar levels.
Emerging-market stocks missed out on the third-quarter equity bounce, but they’re not missing out on the retreat. They may have further to fall as the stuttering global economy drags down earnings while Federal Reserve tightening draws money to dollar assets. While the MSCI World Index of developed-nation equities climbed almost 12% since the start of the quarter to an August 16 high, the equivalent EM gauge added just 1.4%. Since then, the World Index is down just under 3%, while the EM index has dropped 4.1%. As a result, EM stocks are now the cheapest in two decades relative to developed-nation equities. You’d have to go back to the deflation of the dotcom bubble, and the Asian crisis before that, to find similar levels.
Bottom-line: 내구재 주문은 전월과 변동이 없이 발표되었고 이는 추정치를 하회한 것, 그러나 국방 부문을 제외 한 내구재 주문은 오히려 상승하면서 설문에 기반하는 제조업관리자지수(PMI)와 실물에 기반하는 지표 간 불일치에 주목하게 함. 이는 중앙은행에게 실물 데이터까지 명확하게 악화되지 않는 한 현재의 행보를 멈추지 않을 유인을 줄 것임.
Headline durable goods orders were unchanged on the month, considerably weaker than expected, though that looks to be a function of aircraft. Core aggregates were all somewhat higher than expected, and there were some upward revisions to orders and shipments for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and parts. It kind of underscores a running theme, which is the disparity between surveys like Tuesday’s PMIs and hard data, which have thus far been more resilient. It kind of feels like the Fed isn’t going to blink until there is a clear and broad deterioration in the hard data, so the wait continues...
Headline durable goods orders were unchanged on the month, considerably weaker than expected, though that looks to be a function of aircraft. Core aggregates were all somewhat higher than expected, and there were some upward revisions to orders and shipments for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and parts. It kind of underscores a running theme, which is the disparity between surveys like Tuesday’s PMIs and hard data, which have thus far been more resilient. It kind of feels like the Fed isn’t going to blink until there is a clear and broad deterioration in the hard data, so the wait continues...
• 사담
"Just wait for it. Gravity always wins."
퍼팅 후에 홀컵 끝에 볼이 걸리면 다음 퍼팅 전에 한참을 지켜보던데, 지금 중앙은행은 그렇지 않을까 싶음.
"Just wait for it. Gravity always wins."
퍼팅 후에 홀컵 끝에 볼이 걸리면 다음 퍼팅 전에 한참을 지켜보던데, 지금 중앙은행은 그렇지 않을까 싶음.
Stock traders remained hesitant to make any huge bets ahead of Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. After wandering aimlessly earlier in the day, the S&P 500 posted a small gain in another slow session. Big tech outperformed despite Treasury 10-year yields topping 3.1% on Fed jitters. Gold and the dollar fluctuated. Asian equity futures are in the green.
Bottom-line: 원유 상승 뿐 아니라 인플레이션으로 인한 잭슨홀 연설에서의 호된 분위기에 대한 방어적 전략이 필요함에 따라 에너지 업종으로 다시 주도주로 부상 중임.
Stock investors has been tilting more defensive heading into Jackson Hole. Energy stocks are becoming a notable part of that strategy. Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector so far this week, and the only one in the green. Oil companies, led by Exxon, are the best-performers in terms of market cap. The gains come as WTI rises over 4% this week and inflation fears remain elevated ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech many expect to be hawkish. Autumn will be a “rude awakening,” according to Invesco, as a number of headwinds push commodities prices higher. While energy isn’t as much of a bargain as it was last month, its 12-month forward P/E of ~8.9 is cheaper for this year. The sector’s ratio versus the S&P 500 has fallen from a May peak but remains in an overall uptrend. Energy looks set to re-take leadership; it remains the best-performing sector this month and year.
Stock investors has been tilting more defensive heading into Jackson Hole. Energy stocks are becoming a notable part of that strategy. Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector so far this week, and the only one in the green. Oil companies, led by Exxon, are the best-performers in terms of market cap. The gains come as WTI rises over 4% this week and inflation fears remain elevated ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech many expect to be hawkish. Autumn will be a “rude awakening,” according to Invesco, as a number of headwinds push commodities prices higher. While energy isn’t as much of a bargain as it was last month, its 12-month forward P/E of ~8.9 is cheaper for this year. The sector’s ratio versus the S&P 500 has fallen from a May peak but remains in an overall uptrend. Energy looks set to re-take leadership; it remains the best-performing sector this month and year.
It’s interesting that one of the early starters in the advanced economy hiking cycles has pared back the pace of its tightening -- a signal for others to follow?
Bottom-line: 한국 중앙은행은 인플레이션 때문에 공격적인 금리인상을 해야 할 필요가 현재는 없다고 명확하게 함. 다만 25bp 규모의 금리인상은 물가와 통화의 안정을 위해 지속 할 것이라 함.
Bank of Korea Opts For Less Aggressive Battle Against Inflation. The Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point on Thursday, returning to its usual pace of tightening as Governor Rhee Chang-yong made clear his view that outsized rate hikes were no longer essential in the battle against inflation. The central bank increased its seven-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with the expectations of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg except one who forecast a half-point hike. Rhee said the bank’s stance was to continue with hikes of this size, going forward, as he spelled out his position on the pace of tightening to rein in prices and support the currency while keeping the economy ticking over. The governor will jet off to Jackson Hole for a meeting of central bankers over the next couple of days with global attention focusing on what rate path Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might hint at during a key speech to be closely monitored by investors, policy makers and economists.
Bank of Korea Opts For Less Aggressive Battle Against Inflation. The Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point on Thursday, returning to its usual pace of tightening as Governor Rhee Chang-yong made clear his view that outsized rate hikes were no longer essential in the battle against inflation. The central bank increased its seven-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with the expectations of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg except one who forecast a half-point hike. Rhee said the bank’s stance was to continue with hikes of this size, going forward, as he spelled out his position on the pace of tightening to rein in prices and support the currency while keeping the economy ticking over. The governor will jet off to Jackson Hole for a meeting of central bankers over the next couple of days with global attention focusing on what rate path Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might hint at during a key speech to be closely monitored by investors, policy makers and economists.
Bottom-line: 독일 경제는 우크라이나 전쟁과 물가 상승에도 불구 2분기 동안 0.1%의 성장을 달성한 것으로 발표되었음. 예상보단 나았지만, 향후 유럽 경제의 침체 두려움을 잠식시키기엔 부족함.
Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine. Thursday’s reading from the statistics office exceeds the preliminary estimate for stagnation in the three months through June, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine. Thursday’s reading from the statistics office exceeds the preliminary estimate for stagnation in the three months through June, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.