Bottom-line: 신흥국 주식은 선진국 주식 대비 오를 때 덜 오르고, 빠질 때 더 빠졌으나, 아래로 더 남았다고 주장함.
Emerging-market stocks missed out on the third-quarter equity bounce, but they’re not missing out on the retreat. They may have further to fall as the stuttering global economy drags down earnings while Federal Reserve tightening draws money to dollar assets. While the MSCI World Index of developed-nation equities climbed almost 12% since the start of the quarter to an August 16 high, the equivalent EM gauge added just 1.4%. Since then, the World Index is down just under 3%, while the EM index has dropped 4.1%. As a result, EM stocks are now the cheapest in two decades relative to developed-nation equities. You’d have to go back to the deflation of the dotcom bubble, and the Asian crisis before that, to find similar levels.
Emerging-market stocks missed out on the third-quarter equity bounce, but they’re not missing out on the retreat. They may have further to fall as the stuttering global economy drags down earnings while Federal Reserve tightening draws money to dollar assets. While the MSCI World Index of developed-nation equities climbed almost 12% since the start of the quarter to an August 16 high, the equivalent EM gauge added just 1.4%. Since then, the World Index is down just under 3%, while the EM index has dropped 4.1%. As a result, EM stocks are now the cheapest in two decades relative to developed-nation equities. You’d have to go back to the deflation of the dotcom bubble, and the Asian crisis before that, to find similar levels.
Bottom-line: 내구재 주문은 전월과 변동이 없이 발표되었고 이는 추정치를 하회한 것, 그러나 국방 부문을 제외 한 내구재 주문은 오히려 상승하면서 설문에 기반하는 제조업관리자지수(PMI)와 실물에 기반하는 지표 간 불일치에 주목하게 함. 이는 중앙은행에게 실물 데이터까지 명확하게 악화되지 않는 한 현재의 행보를 멈추지 않을 유인을 줄 것임.
Headline durable goods orders were unchanged on the month, considerably weaker than expected, though that looks to be a function of aircraft. Core aggregates were all somewhat higher than expected, and there were some upward revisions to orders and shipments for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and parts. It kind of underscores a running theme, which is the disparity between surveys like Tuesday’s PMIs and hard data, which have thus far been more resilient. It kind of feels like the Fed isn’t going to blink until there is a clear and broad deterioration in the hard data, so the wait continues...
Headline durable goods orders were unchanged on the month, considerably weaker than expected, though that looks to be a function of aircraft. Core aggregates were all somewhat higher than expected, and there were some upward revisions to orders and shipments for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and parts. It kind of underscores a running theme, which is the disparity between surveys like Tuesday’s PMIs and hard data, which have thus far been more resilient. It kind of feels like the Fed isn’t going to blink until there is a clear and broad deterioration in the hard data, so the wait continues...
• 사담
"Just wait for it. Gravity always wins."
퍼팅 후에 홀컵 끝에 볼이 걸리면 다음 퍼팅 전에 한참을 지켜보던데, 지금 중앙은행은 그렇지 않을까 싶음.
"Just wait for it. Gravity always wins."
퍼팅 후에 홀컵 끝에 볼이 걸리면 다음 퍼팅 전에 한참을 지켜보던데, 지금 중앙은행은 그렇지 않을까 싶음.
Stock traders remained hesitant to make any huge bets ahead of Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. After wandering aimlessly earlier in the day, the S&P 500 posted a small gain in another slow session. Big tech outperformed despite Treasury 10-year yields topping 3.1% on Fed jitters. Gold and the dollar fluctuated. Asian equity futures are in the green.
Bottom-line: 원유 상승 뿐 아니라 인플레이션으로 인한 잭슨홀 연설에서의 호된 분위기에 대한 방어적 전략이 필요함에 따라 에너지 업종으로 다시 주도주로 부상 중임.
Stock investors has been tilting more defensive heading into Jackson Hole. Energy stocks are becoming a notable part of that strategy. Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector so far this week, and the only one in the green. Oil companies, led by Exxon, are the best-performers in terms of market cap. The gains come as WTI rises over 4% this week and inflation fears remain elevated ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech many expect to be hawkish. Autumn will be a “rude awakening,” according to Invesco, as a number of headwinds push commodities prices higher. While energy isn’t as much of a bargain as it was last month, its 12-month forward P/E of ~8.9 is cheaper for this year. The sector’s ratio versus the S&P 500 has fallen from a May peak but remains in an overall uptrend. Energy looks set to re-take leadership; it remains the best-performing sector this month and year.
Stock investors has been tilting more defensive heading into Jackson Hole. Energy stocks are becoming a notable part of that strategy. Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector so far this week, and the only one in the green. Oil companies, led by Exxon, are the best-performers in terms of market cap. The gains come as WTI rises over 4% this week and inflation fears remain elevated ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech many expect to be hawkish. Autumn will be a “rude awakening,” according to Invesco, as a number of headwinds push commodities prices higher. While energy isn’t as much of a bargain as it was last month, its 12-month forward P/E of ~8.9 is cheaper for this year. The sector’s ratio versus the S&P 500 has fallen from a May peak but remains in an overall uptrend. Energy looks set to re-take leadership; it remains the best-performing sector this month and year.
It’s interesting that one of the early starters in the advanced economy hiking cycles has pared back the pace of its tightening -- a signal for others to follow?
Bottom-line: 한국 중앙은행은 인플레이션 때문에 공격적인 금리인상을 해야 할 필요가 현재는 없다고 명확하게 함. 다만 25bp 규모의 금리인상은 물가와 통화의 안정을 위해 지속 할 것이라 함.
Bank of Korea Opts For Less Aggressive Battle Against Inflation. The Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point on Thursday, returning to its usual pace of tightening as Governor Rhee Chang-yong made clear his view that outsized rate hikes were no longer essential in the battle against inflation. The central bank increased its seven-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with the expectations of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg except one who forecast a half-point hike. Rhee said the bank’s stance was to continue with hikes of this size, going forward, as he spelled out his position on the pace of tightening to rein in prices and support the currency while keeping the economy ticking over. The governor will jet off to Jackson Hole for a meeting of central bankers over the next couple of days with global attention focusing on what rate path Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might hint at during a key speech to be closely monitored by investors, policy makers and economists.
Bank of Korea Opts For Less Aggressive Battle Against Inflation. The Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point on Thursday, returning to its usual pace of tightening as Governor Rhee Chang-yong made clear his view that outsized rate hikes were no longer essential in the battle against inflation. The central bank increased its seven-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with the expectations of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg except one who forecast a half-point hike. Rhee said the bank’s stance was to continue with hikes of this size, going forward, as he spelled out his position on the pace of tightening to rein in prices and support the currency while keeping the economy ticking over. The governor will jet off to Jackson Hole for a meeting of central bankers over the next couple of days with global attention focusing on what rate path Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might hint at during a key speech to be closely monitored by investors, policy makers and economists.
Bottom-line: 독일 경제는 우크라이나 전쟁과 물가 상승에도 불구 2분기 동안 0.1%의 성장을 달성한 것으로 발표되었음. 예상보단 나았지만, 향후 유럽 경제의 침체 두려움을 잠식시키기엔 부족함.
Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine. Thursday’s reading from the statistics office exceeds the preliminary estimate for stagnation in the three months through June, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine. Thursday’s reading from the statistics office exceeds the preliminary estimate for stagnation in the three months through June, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
Bottom-line: 잭슨홀 연설을 앞두고 엔화 옵션에 대한 포지션도 명확한 이유 없이 그간과 반대 방향으로 급격하게 바뀜. 인플레이션 완화 신호와 경기침체 위험이 파월이 강경한 발언을 고수할 수 있을지 의문을 키운 것으로 보임.
As the countdown to the Jackson Hole symposium begins, an abrupt shift has taken place in the options market. When trading got underway in Asia on Thursday, investors had to pay more for options which benefit when dollar-yen rises. Just a few hours later, the premium had shifted in favor of options that benefit when the currency pair falls. While it’s hard to say with certainty what led to the change, doubts may be growing that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will stick to his hawkish noscript at the upcoming symposium. Signs that inflation may be moderating and concerns of a global downturn are backing the case for policy makers to opt for more measured rate increases.
As the countdown to the Jackson Hole symposium begins, an abrupt shift has taken place in the options market. When trading got underway in Asia on Thursday, investors had to pay more for options which benefit when dollar-yen rises. Just a few hours later, the premium had shifted in favor of options that benefit when the currency pair falls. While it’s hard to say with certainty what led to the change, doubts may be growing that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will stick to his hawkish noscript at the upcoming symposium. Signs that inflation may be moderating and concerns of a global downturn are backing the case for policy makers to opt for more measured rate increases.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리인상 경고에 귀를 기울이지 않도록 만든 실수를 이번 잭슨홀 연설에서 바로잡으려 할 것임. 설령 어느 순간 금리인상 속도는 둔화 될 수 있어도 양적긴축 규모 확대로 인한 충격은 시작도 하지 않았음. 중앙은행은 실업률을 높여 고용시장을 냉각시키거나 완화적이 되어버린 금융시장환경을 다시 압박시켜야 할 것임.
Fear of Fed playback keeps big managers awake on jackson hole eve. “I don’t think the market’s listened to any of the governors,” Tom Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry Founder, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s going to take Powell to reverse some of the dovish comments he had at the last Fed meeting to have the market take this seriously.". Minutes of the Fed’s meeting last month stoked a view that the Fed might soon pivot to a less-aggressive stance. After several consecutive super-sized hikes, the pace of rate increases could slow “at some point,” the minutes showed. But even if policy makers back off from another 75-basis point hike at September’s meeting, quantitative tightening is scheduled to kick into its highest gear. The balance-sheet runoff’s monthly cap will lift from $47.5 billion to a maximum pace of $95 billion next month -- a reality that has yet to be reflected in markets. “The Fed needs to break one of two things,” said Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle. “Either they need to break the labor market, with unemployment pushing higher. Or they need to break financial conditions.”
Fear of Fed playback keeps big managers awake on jackson hole eve. “I don’t think the market’s listened to any of the governors,” Tom Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry Founder, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s going to take Powell to reverse some of the dovish comments he had at the last Fed meeting to have the market take this seriously.". Minutes of the Fed’s meeting last month stoked a view that the Fed might soon pivot to a less-aggressive stance. After several consecutive super-sized hikes, the pace of rate increases could slow “at some point,” the minutes showed. But even if policy makers back off from another 75-basis point hike at September’s meeting, quantitative tightening is scheduled to kick into its highest gear. The balance-sheet runoff’s monthly cap will lift from $47.5 billion to a maximum pace of $95 billion next month -- a reality that has yet to be reflected in markets. “The Fed needs to break one of two things,” said Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle. “Either they need to break the labor market, with unemployment pushing higher. Or they need to break financial conditions.”
Bottom-line: 브리지워터는 시장 참여자들이 안정적인 경제상황에서 인플레이션이 둔화됨을 가격에 반영 중인데 반해 금리인상과 양적축소의 영향을 고려하지 않고 있다 보며, 심지어 인플레이션은 쉽게 통제되지 않을 것 같고, 금리는 더 높아지며 전체 자산시장은 20%~25% 하락할 것으로 본다 함.
Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, expects that equities are facing a significant drop to align them with the real economy. “In aggregate, the asset markets will decline from 20% to 25%,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television speaking with Kailey Leinz and Guy Johnson on “Bloomberg Markets.”. “The market is pricing a decline in inflation to occur in a relatively stable economy,” he said, but isn’t factoring in the impact of higher interested rates and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening. Jensen expects that QT and rate hikes will drive down both inflation and economic growth, and “unfortunately the inflation will be more stubborn,” resulting in higher interest rates across the curve, particularly on the long end. Asset prices will also fall, he said.
Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, expects that equities are facing a significant drop to align them with the real economy. “In aggregate, the asset markets will decline from 20% to 25%,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television speaking with Kailey Leinz and Guy Johnson on “Bloomberg Markets.”. “The market is pricing a decline in inflation to occur in a relatively stable economy,” he said, but isn’t factoring in the impact of higher interested rates and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening. Jensen expects that QT and rate hikes will drive down both inflation and economic growth, and “unfortunately the inflation will be more stubborn,” resulting in higher interest rates across the curve, particularly on the long end. Asset prices will also fall, he said.
Bottom-line: 외환 트레이더들은 잭슨홀 연설 기간 중 금요일보다 토요일에 더 관심을 집중할 것인데, 대확산 이후 정책전망이 주제며, 다음 주 유로, 스위스 프랑, 원화를 움직일 수 있는 인사들의 발언이 있기 때문임. 특히 유로와 원화의 경우 현재까지의 약세를 방어할 수 있는 구실이 생길지 주목되며, 그 결과는 거래가 말라버린 시드니 시장의 월요일이 알려줄 것임.
By the close of Friday’s US session markets will have priced for Jerome Powell, but FX traders will still be watching for comments from a star studded panel on Saturday which could move EUR, CHF or KRW next week. The Saturday panel is noscriptd “The Outlook for Policy Post-Pandemic.” It includes as panelists Banque de France Governor Villeroy de Galhau, SNB Chairman Jordan, BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee and the ECB’s Schnabel. Should EUR/USD close near the 0.9901, August 23 low that could be problematic if ECB’s Schnabel fails to counteract a hawkish Powell. Same for Swissie which is on track for falling 8 of the past ten trading days. Although that would probably suit SNB President Jordan just fine. Not so much for BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee, when Korean officials have tried jawboning some strength into the KRW. That sets up for a spicy Monday open in Sydney, when FX liquidity is at its absolute worst for the week.
By the close of Friday’s US session markets will have priced for Jerome Powell, but FX traders will still be watching for comments from a star studded panel on Saturday which could move EUR, CHF or KRW next week. The Saturday panel is noscriptd “The Outlook for Policy Post-Pandemic.” It includes as panelists Banque de France Governor Villeroy de Galhau, SNB Chairman Jordan, BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee and the ECB’s Schnabel. Should EUR/USD close near the 0.9901, August 23 low that could be problematic if ECB’s Schnabel fails to counteract a hawkish Powell. Same for Swissie which is on track for falling 8 of the past ten trading days. Although that would probably suit SNB President Jordan just fine. Not so much for BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee, when Korean officials have tried jawboning some strength into the KRW. That sets up for a spicy Monday open in Sydney, when FX liquidity is at its absolute worst for the week.