Bottom-line: 아시아 및 유럽 시장에서 미국 선물이 하락해서 거래되어도 정규장에서 회복 및 상승하는 추세가 이젠 끝난 것 같음. 화요일 이 사례를 가장 잘 보여줬는데, 오프쇼어 거래에서 위험자산이 랠리를 시작한 듯 보였으나 온쇼어 거래에서 줄곧 하락해 마감했고, 이 패턴은 S&P 500 상장지수펀드의 정규장 누적 수익률 패턴서도 관찰됨.
Tuesday was a pretty good illustration of how things have changed recently. Twenty-four hours ago, markets looked primed for a sort of turnaround bounce in risk assets, but that ultimately fizzled quite badly by the time US markets closed on Tuesday afternoon. It seems as if the episode of intraday rallies in the equity market has come to an end, which rather suggests that the underlying bear market trend is back in force. Six weeks or so ago, I observed that equity markets had started to trade lower overnight, only to recover and keep going during regular US trading hours. That’s a reversal of the long-standing pattern of the past few decades, in which the bulk of cumulative gains have come via overnight gaps. Well, the market’s tendency to rally during regular hours continued up until the last week or two, but has now reversed quite notably, as you can see from the chart of cumulative 2022 regular session returns of the SPY ETF.
Tuesday was a pretty good illustration of how things have changed recently. Twenty-four hours ago, markets looked primed for a sort of turnaround bounce in risk assets, but that ultimately fizzled quite badly by the time US markets closed on Tuesday afternoon. It seems as if the episode of intraday rallies in the equity market has come to an end, which rather suggests that the underlying bear market trend is back in force. Six weeks or so ago, I observed that equity markets had started to trade lower overnight, only to recover and keep going during regular US trading hours. That’s a reversal of the long-standing pattern of the past few decades, in which the bulk of cumulative gains have come via overnight gaps. Well, the market’s tendency to rally during regular hours continued up until the last week or two, but has now reversed quite notably, as you can see from the chart of cumulative 2022 regular session returns of the SPY ETF.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행은 금리인상을 지속할 것이며, 내년에 금리인하로 돌아설 일은 없을 것임.
The Federal Reserve needs to raise its benchmark rate above 4% by early next year and leave it there for some time to help cool inflation, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated on Wednesday, making it clear she doesn’t expect the central bank to cut rates in 2023. “My current view is that it will be necessary to move the fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4% by early next year and hold it there,” Mester said Wednesday in remarks prepared for an event organized by the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce. “I do not anticipate the Fed cutting the fed funds rate target next year.”
The Federal Reserve needs to raise its benchmark rate above 4% by early next year and leave it there for some time to help cool inflation, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated on Wednesday, making it clear she doesn’t expect the central bank to cut rates in 2023. “My current view is that it will be necessary to move the fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4% by early next year and hold it there,” Mester said Wednesday in remarks prepared for an event organized by the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce. “I do not anticipate the Fed cutting the fed funds rate target next year.”
August drew to a close with equities, bonds and commodities posting monthly losses as central banks stepped up the fight against inflation. US stocks dropped, with the S&P losing 0.8%. Treasuries also fell, pushing 10-year yields up to around 3.19%, after a selloff in UK and euro-zone bonds.
Bottom-line: 그 어디에도 숨을 곳이 없었던 8월은 1981년 이후 40년만에 모든 최고 성과의 자산군에서도 마이너스 수익률을 기록함. 가장 덜 하락한 고수익 회사채도 -1.9%, 국채 -2.2%, 원자재 -3.9%, 주식 -4.2% 하락함. 성장전망이 악화되며 그 어떤 위험자산에도 우호적인 여건이 안된다는 평가도 있었음.
Bulls Starved in August Amid Broadest Cross-Asset Drop Since ‘81. Investors went hungry in August, denied by Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve of opportunities to profit like no other month in four decades. From stocks to bonds and commodities, every major asset slid. The least-atrocious return was a 1.9% loss as shown in a Bloomberg index tracking high-yield corporate bonds. Worse was a 2.2% drop in Treasuries, a 3.9% decline in commodities and a 4.2% slide in the S&P 500. Rarely has advice not to fight the Fed borne out more severely. The last time the best-performing asset did worse in a month was December 1981. “The only way to make money in an absolute sense is cash or shorting something,” said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Asset Management. “The forward growth outlook is deteriorating. Risk assets are still nowhere near appropriately priced for such an environment and I expect weakness to continue.”
Bulls Starved in August Amid Broadest Cross-Asset Drop Since ‘81. Investors went hungry in August, denied by Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve of opportunities to profit like no other month in four decades. From stocks to bonds and commodities, every major asset slid. The least-atrocious return was a 1.9% loss as shown in a Bloomberg index tracking high-yield corporate bonds. Worse was a 2.2% drop in Treasuries, a 3.9% decline in commodities and a 4.2% slide in the S&P 500. Rarely has advice not to fight the Fed borne out more severely. The last time the best-performing asset did worse in a month was December 1981. “The only way to make money in an absolute sense is cash or shorting something,” said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Asset Management. “The forward growth outlook is deteriorating. Risk assets are still nowhere near appropriately priced for such an environment and I expect weakness to continue.”
일반 용어: 다중자산 간 상관관계가 높아지면 위험을 방어 할 수단이 없음. 특히 위험균등전략처럼 주식과 채권의 상쇄효과가 대표적임. 경기 전망 악화로 주가와 금리가 동시에 하락하면 채권 가격이 오르면 수익률 방어.
여의도 VC 스타일 언어: 멀티에셋 코릴이 높다보니 헤지가 안됨. 리스크 패리티처럼 에쿼티/본드 얼로케이션을 통한 스테이블한 퍼폼이 어려움.
여의도 VC 스타일 언어: 멀티에셋 코릴이 높다보니 헤지가 안됨. 리스크 패리티처럼 에쿼티/본드 얼로케이션을 통한 스테이블한 퍼폼이 어려움.
Bottom-line: 갈라파고스.
The yen just hit a fresh 24-year low against the dollar, with USD/JPY propelled above July high of 139.39 by the supercharged yield-spread engine amid widening US-Japan policy divergence.
The yen just hit a fresh 24-year low against the dollar, with USD/JPY propelled above July high of 139.39 by the supercharged yield-spread engine amid widening US-Japan policy divergence.
Bottom-line: 절하되는 위안을 방어하기 위해 계속적으로 전문가들의 추정치보다 큰 폭의 차이를 둔 환율 고시를 하고 있음.
China kept up its resistance against yuan weakness by setting a stronger-than-expected currency fixing for a seventh straight day. The People’s Bank of China set the fix at 6.8821 per dollar, 103 pips stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. On Tuesday, the PBOC set the yuan reference rate at 249 pips stronger than the average estimate in a survey of market participants, which was the second-strongest bias on record.
China kept up its resistance against yuan weakness by setting a stronger-than-expected currency fixing for a seventh straight day. The People’s Bank of China set the fix at 6.8821 per dollar, 103 pips stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. On Tuesday, the PBOC set the yuan reference rate at 249 pips stronger than the average estimate in a survey of market participants, which was the second-strongest bias on record.
Bottom-line: 내연기관에서 신재생 에너지로 중국 자동차 소비자들의 기호가 바뀌는 것이 누군가에겐 불행임. 오랜 세월 외국 자동차 제조업체들이 중국에서 누렸던 지위를 잃어가고 있는데, 2022년 1월부터 7월까지 판매 된 신재생 에너지 차량의 80%는 중국 제조업체들이었기 때문임.
China’s Love of Local EVs Is Bad News for Foreign Carmakers. For the past four decades, Western automakers have enjoyed a welcome lift from Chinese car buyers, who were drawn to the foreign brands’ quality and cachet. That allowed sales in the Asian nation to become a sizable piece of European and US automakers’ revenue and growth plans. But as China’s car buyers quickly shift away from traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered cars and toward electric vehicles, that could be changing. Homegrown auto manufacturers now command the lion’s share of new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales, leaving global giants such as Volkswagen AG and BMW AGat risk of being left behind in the world’s biggest EV market. Domestic automakers accounted for almost 80% of EV sales through the first seven months of 2022, according to data compiled by the China Passenger Car Association (PCA).
China’s Love of Local EVs Is Bad News for Foreign Carmakers. For the past four decades, Western automakers have enjoyed a welcome lift from Chinese car buyers, who were drawn to the foreign brands’ quality and cachet. That allowed sales in the Asian nation to become a sizable piece of European and US automakers’ revenue and growth plans. But as China’s car buyers quickly shift away from traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered cars and toward electric vehicles, that could be changing. Homegrown auto manufacturers now command the lion’s share of new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales, leaving global giants such as Volkswagen AG and BMW AGat risk of being left behind in the world’s biggest EV market. Domestic automakers accounted for almost 80% of EV sales through the first seven months of 2022, according to data compiled by the China Passenger Car Association (PCA).
Bottom-line: 하이보 금리가 11개월 상승을 이어가며 14년래 최고치를 기록함. 각 국 중앙은행의 긴축 행렬 뿐 아니라 환율의 평가절하 압력 방어에 따라 향후 하이보 금리는 더 높아질 수 있다고 봄.
A gauge of Hong Kong’s interbank borrowing costs surged to the highest level in 14 years, tracking rising global rates amid expectations of aggressive rate hikes by major central banks. The three-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate climbed three basis points to 2.68%, the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis. DBS Bank Ltd., OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd and Mizuho Bank Ltd expect the gauge to rise further even after it posted a record 11 straight month of gains. In addition to hawkish monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Hong Kong’s rates are also under pressure to rise as the city’s de-facto monetary authority drains liquidity to cap the currency’s decline. It wants to push local rates high enough so that traders find it less attractive to short the Hong Kong dollar in favor of the higher-yielding greenback.
A gauge of Hong Kong’s interbank borrowing costs surged to the highest level in 14 years, tracking rising global rates amid expectations of aggressive rate hikes by major central banks. The three-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate climbed three basis points to 2.68%, the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis. DBS Bank Ltd., OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd and Mizuho Bank Ltd expect the gauge to rise further even after it posted a record 11 straight month of gains. In addition to hawkish monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Hong Kong’s rates are also under pressure to rise as the city’s de-facto monetary authority drains liquidity to cap the currency’s decline. It wants to push local rates high enough so that traders find it less attractive to short the Hong Kong dollar in favor of the higher-yielding greenback.
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”
- Mark Twain
- Mark Twain
CNH extends gains, rallying against the dollar, on reports thatRussia is considering a plan to buy as much as $70 billion in yuan and other “friendly” currencies this year to slow the ruble’s surge.