Bottom-line: 그 어디에도 숨을 곳이 없었던 8월은 1981년 이후 40년만에 모든 최고 성과의 자산군에서도 마이너스 수익률을 기록함. 가장 덜 하락한 고수익 회사채도 -1.9%, 국채 -2.2%, 원자재 -3.9%, 주식 -4.2% 하락함. 성장전망이 악화되며 그 어떤 위험자산에도 우호적인 여건이 안된다는 평가도 있었음.
Bulls Starved in August Amid Broadest Cross-Asset Drop Since ‘81. Investors went hungry in August, denied by Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve of opportunities to profit like no other month in four decades. From stocks to bonds and commodities, every major asset slid. The least-atrocious return was a 1.9% loss as shown in a Bloomberg index tracking high-yield corporate bonds. Worse was a 2.2% drop in Treasuries, a 3.9% decline in commodities and a 4.2% slide in the S&P 500. Rarely has advice not to fight the Fed borne out more severely. The last time the best-performing asset did worse in a month was December 1981. “The only way to make money in an absolute sense is cash or shorting something,” said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Asset Management. “The forward growth outlook is deteriorating. Risk assets are still nowhere near appropriately priced for such an environment and I expect weakness to continue.”
Bulls Starved in August Amid Broadest Cross-Asset Drop Since ‘81. Investors went hungry in August, denied by Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve of opportunities to profit like no other month in four decades. From stocks to bonds and commodities, every major asset slid. The least-atrocious return was a 1.9% loss as shown in a Bloomberg index tracking high-yield corporate bonds. Worse was a 2.2% drop in Treasuries, a 3.9% decline in commodities and a 4.2% slide in the S&P 500. Rarely has advice not to fight the Fed borne out more severely. The last time the best-performing asset did worse in a month was December 1981. “The only way to make money in an absolute sense is cash or shorting something,” said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Asset Management. “The forward growth outlook is deteriorating. Risk assets are still nowhere near appropriately priced for such an environment and I expect weakness to continue.”
일반 용어: 다중자산 간 상관관계가 높아지면 위험을 방어 할 수단이 없음. 특히 위험균등전략처럼 주식과 채권의 상쇄효과가 대표적임. 경기 전망 악화로 주가와 금리가 동시에 하락하면 채권 가격이 오르면 수익률 방어.
여의도 VC 스타일 언어: 멀티에셋 코릴이 높다보니 헤지가 안됨. 리스크 패리티처럼 에쿼티/본드 얼로케이션을 통한 스테이블한 퍼폼이 어려움.
여의도 VC 스타일 언어: 멀티에셋 코릴이 높다보니 헤지가 안됨. 리스크 패리티처럼 에쿼티/본드 얼로케이션을 통한 스테이블한 퍼폼이 어려움.
Bottom-line: 갈라파고스.
The yen just hit a fresh 24-year low against the dollar, with USD/JPY propelled above July high of 139.39 by the supercharged yield-spread engine amid widening US-Japan policy divergence.
The yen just hit a fresh 24-year low against the dollar, with USD/JPY propelled above July high of 139.39 by the supercharged yield-spread engine amid widening US-Japan policy divergence.
Bottom-line: 절하되는 위안을 방어하기 위해 계속적으로 전문가들의 추정치보다 큰 폭의 차이를 둔 환율 고시를 하고 있음.
China kept up its resistance against yuan weakness by setting a stronger-than-expected currency fixing for a seventh straight day. The People’s Bank of China set the fix at 6.8821 per dollar, 103 pips stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. On Tuesday, the PBOC set the yuan reference rate at 249 pips stronger than the average estimate in a survey of market participants, which was the second-strongest bias on record.
China kept up its resistance against yuan weakness by setting a stronger-than-expected currency fixing for a seventh straight day. The People’s Bank of China set the fix at 6.8821 per dollar, 103 pips stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. On Tuesday, the PBOC set the yuan reference rate at 249 pips stronger than the average estimate in a survey of market participants, which was the second-strongest bias on record.
Bottom-line: 내연기관에서 신재생 에너지로 중국 자동차 소비자들의 기호가 바뀌는 것이 누군가에겐 불행임. 오랜 세월 외국 자동차 제조업체들이 중국에서 누렸던 지위를 잃어가고 있는데, 2022년 1월부터 7월까지 판매 된 신재생 에너지 차량의 80%는 중국 제조업체들이었기 때문임.
China’s Love of Local EVs Is Bad News for Foreign Carmakers. For the past four decades, Western automakers have enjoyed a welcome lift from Chinese car buyers, who were drawn to the foreign brands’ quality and cachet. That allowed sales in the Asian nation to become a sizable piece of European and US automakers’ revenue and growth plans. But as China’s car buyers quickly shift away from traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered cars and toward electric vehicles, that could be changing. Homegrown auto manufacturers now command the lion’s share of new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales, leaving global giants such as Volkswagen AG and BMW AGat risk of being left behind in the world’s biggest EV market. Domestic automakers accounted for almost 80% of EV sales through the first seven months of 2022, according to data compiled by the China Passenger Car Association (PCA).
China’s Love of Local EVs Is Bad News for Foreign Carmakers. For the past four decades, Western automakers have enjoyed a welcome lift from Chinese car buyers, who were drawn to the foreign brands’ quality and cachet. That allowed sales in the Asian nation to become a sizable piece of European and US automakers’ revenue and growth plans. But as China’s car buyers quickly shift away from traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered cars and toward electric vehicles, that could be changing. Homegrown auto manufacturers now command the lion’s share of new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales, leaving global giants such as Volkswagen AG and BMW AGat risk of being left behind in the world’s biggest EV market. Domestic automakers accounted for almost 80% of EV sales through the first seven months of 2022, according to data compiled by the China Passenger Car Association (PCA).
Bottom-line: 하이보 금리가 11개월 상승을 이어가며 14년래 최고치를 기록함. 각 국 중앙은행의 긴축 행렬 뿐 아니라 환율의 평가절하 압력 방어에 따라 향후 하이보 금리는 더 높아질 수 있다고 봄.
A gauge of Hong Kong’s interbank borrowing costs surged to the highest level in 14 years, tracking rising global rates amid expectations of aggressive rate hikes by major central banks. The three-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate climbed three basis points to 2.68%, the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis. DBS Bank Ltd., OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd and Mizuho Bank Ltd expect the gauge to rise further even after it posted a record 11 straight month of gains. In addition to hawkish monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Hong Kong’s rates are also under pressure to rise as the city’s de-facto monetary authority drains liquidity to cap the currency’s decline. It wants to push local rates high enough so that traders find it less attractive to short the Hong Kong dollar in favor of the higher-yielding greenback.
A gauge of Hong Kong’s interbank borrowing costs surged to the highest level in 14 years, tracking rising global rates amid expectations of aggressive rate hikes by major central banks. The three-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate climbed three basis points to 2.68%, the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis. DBS Bank Ltd., OCBC Wing Hang Bank Ltd and Mizuho Bank Ltd expect the gauge to rise further even after it posted a record 11 straight month of gains. In addition to hawkish monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Hong Kong’s rates are also under pressure to rise as the city’s de-facto monetary authority drains liquidity to cap the currency’s decline. It wants to push local rates high enough so that traders find it less attractive to short the Hong Kong dollar in favor of the higher-yielding greenback.
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”
- Mark Twain
- Mark Twain
CNH extends gains, rallying against the dollar, on reports thatRussia is considering a plan to buy as much as $70 billion in yuan and other “friendly” currencies this year to slow the ruble’s surge.
Bottom-line: 숫자가 너무 좋게 나왔는데, 다만 중앙은행이 수요 기반 가격 압력을 통제하려는데 힘을 실어줄 것임.
ISM Shows Few Signs of Significant Slowdown. The manufacturing ISM delivered a modest upside surprise, printing an unchanged 52.8 versus an expected 51.9. The breakdown looks pretty positive, with new orders rising to 51.4 and employment to 54.2 from 48 and 49.9, respectively. There appears to be an ongoing easing of some bottlenecks, with supplier deliveries falling from 57.3 to 55.2, the lowest reading since January 2020. Prices paid dropped all the way to 52.5 from 60, reflecting ongoing declines in commodity prices. While the news on pricing and bottlenecks is positive, the message on activity is that it remains sufficiently robust that the Fed will continue to worry about demand-driven pricing pressures throughout the economy.
ISM Shows Few Signs of Significant Slowdown. The manufacturing ISM delivered a modest upside surprise, printing an unchanged 52.8 versus an expected 51.9. The breakdown looks pretty positive, with new orders rising to 51.4 and employment to 54.2 from 48 and 49.9, respectively. There appears to be an ongoing easing of some bottlenecks, with supplier deliveries falling from 57.3 to 55.2, the lowest reading since January 2020. Prices paid dropped all the way to 52.5 from 60, reflecting ongoing declines in commodity prices. While the news on pricing and bottlenecks is positive, the message on activity is that it remains sufficiently robust that the Fed will continue to worry about demand-driven pricing pressures throughout the economy.
US stocks closed higher for the first time in five days, erasing early losses, as investors weighed continued strong data and expectations of Fed tightening.
Bottom-line: 전쟁, 에너지 위기, 그리고 인플레이션이 중앙은행의 과감한 행동을 촉발시키며 자산군 전반에 걸쳐 변동성이 확대 된 동안 대부분 전략이 7월 말까지 손실을 봤음. 다만, 경제를 예측하고 다양한 자산군에 걸친 베팅을 통해 수익을 추구하는 매크로 펀드는 수익을 거뒀으며, 그 중 42조원 규모의 자산을 운용하는 하이다르 캐피탈은 연 초 이후 8월 26일까지 +225% 수익(최근 4주간 +29.6%)을 거두며 매크로 트레이딩 그룹을 선도하고 있음.
Hedge fund Haidar Capital is leading a pack of macro trading firms that are making the most of the global struggle to keep inflation under control. Said Haidar’s $3.3 billion Haidar Jupiter Fund soared an estimated 29.6% in the four weeks through Aug. 26, boosting this year’s return to more than 225%, according to investor documents seen by Bloomberg. Billionaire macro trader Chris Rokos and Edouard de Langlade each enjoyed gains of just under 10% in one of their best-ever months, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the details are private. The war in Ukraine and ensuing global energy crisis have pushed inflation to the highest in decades across many western economies this year, forcing central banks to take rapid action and injecting volatility into stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Macro hedge funds, which specialize in predicting economic trends and betting across asset classes, have exploited the swings to make money. They’re up 2.7% through July as a group, while most of the other strategies are down this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Hedge fund Haidar Capital is leading a pack of macro trading firms that are making the most of the global struggle to keep inflation under control. Said Haidar’s $3.3 billion Haidar Jupiter Fund soared an estimated 29.6% in the four weeks through Aug. 26, boosting this year’s return to more than 225%, according to investor documents seen by Bloomberg. Billionaire macro trader Chris Rokos and Edouard de Langlade each enjoyed gains of just under 10% in one of their best-ever months, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the details are private. The war in Ukraine and ensuing global energy crisis have pushed inflation to the highest in decades across many western economies this year, forcing central banks to take rapid action and injecting volatility into stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Macro hedge funds, which specialize in predicting economic trends and betting across asset classes, have exploited the swings to make money. They’re up 2.7% through July as a group, while most of the other strategies are down this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bottom-line: 1990년 만들어진 투자등급의 채권(국채 및 회사채 종합)지수는 2021년 고점 대비 -20%로 가장 큰 하락을 경험하며 약세장에 진입함.
Under pressure from central bankers determined to quash inflation even at the cost of a recession, global bonds slumped into their first bear market in a generation. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index of government and investment-grade corporate bonds has fallen more than 20% below its 2021 peak, the biggest drawdown since its 1990 inception. Officials from the US to Europe have hammered home the importance of tighter monetary policy in recent days, building on the strong hawkish message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the recent Jackson Hole symposium. Soaring inflation and the steep interest-rate hikes deployed by policy makers in response have brought to an end a four-decade bull market in bonds. That has created a particularly difficult environment for investors this year, with bonds and stocks sinking in tandem.
Under pressure from central bankers determined to quash inflation even at the cost of a recession, global bonds slumped into their first bear market in a generation. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index of government and investment-grade corporate bonds has fallen more than 20% below its 2021 peak, the biggest drawdown since its 1990 inception. Officials from the US to Europe have hammered home the importance of tighter monetary policy in recent days, building on the strong hawkish message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the recent Jackson Hole symposium. Soaring inflation and the steep interest-rate hikes deployed by policy makers in response have brought to an end a four-decade bull market in bonds. That has created a particularly difficult environment for investors this year, with bonds and stocks sinking in tandem.