US stocks closed higher for the first time in five days, erasing early losses, as investors weighed continued strong data and expectations of Fed tightening.
Bottom-line: 전쟁, 에너지 위기, 그리고 인플레이션이 중앙은행의 과감한 행동을 촉발시키며 자산군 전반에 걸쳐 변동성이 확대 된 동안 대부분 전략이 7월 말까지 손실을 봤음. 다만, 경제를 예측하고 다양한 자산군에 걸친 베팅을 통해 수익을 추구하는 매크로 펀드는 수익을 거뒀으며, 그 중 42조원 규모의 자산을 운용하는 하이다르 캐피탈은 연 초 이후 8월 26일까지 +225% 수익(최근 4주간 +29.6%)을 거두며 매크로 트레이딩 그룹을 선도하고 있음.
Hedge fund Haidar Capital is leading a pack of macro trading firms that are making the most of the global struggle to keep inflation under control. Said Haidar’s $3.3 billion Haidar Jupiter Fund soared an estimated 29.6% in the four weeks through Aug. 26, boosting this year’s return to more than 225%, according to investor documents seen by Bloomberg. Billionaire macro trader Chris Rokos and Edouard de Langlade each enjoyed gains of just under 10% in one of their best-ever months, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the details are private. The war in Ukraine and ensuing global energy crisis have pushed inflation to the highest in decades across many western economies this year, forcing central banks to take rapid action and injecting volatility into stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Macro hedge funds, which specialize in predicting economic trends and betting across asset classes, have exploited the swings to make money. They’re up 2.7% through July as a group, while most of the other strategies are down this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Hedge fund Haidar Capital is leading a pack of macro trading firms that are making the most of the global struggle to keep inflation under control. Said Haidar’s $3.3 billion Haidar Jupiter Fund soared an estimated 29.6% in the four weeks through Aug. 26, boosting this year’s return to more than 225%, according to investor documents seen by Bloomberg. Billionaire macro trader Chris Rokos and Edouard de Langlade each enjoyed gains of just under 10% in one of their best-ever months, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the details are private. The war in Ukraine and ensuing global energy crisis have pushed inflation to the highest in decades across many western economies this year, forcing central banks to take rapid action and injecting volatility into stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Macro hedge funds, which specialize in predicting economic trends and betting across asset classes, have exploited the swings to make money. They’re up 2.7% through July as a group, while most of the other strategies are down this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bottom-line: 1990년 만들어진 투자등급의 채권(국채 및 회사채 종합)지수는 2021년 고점 대비 -20%로 가장 큰 하락을 경험하며 약세장에 진입함.
Under pressure from central bankers determined to quash inflation even at the cost of a recession, global bonds slumped into their first bear market in a generation. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index of government and investment-grade corporate bonds has fallen more than 20% below its 2021 peak, the biggest drawdown since its 1990 inception. Officials from the US to Europe have hammered home the importance of tighter monetary policy in recent days, building on the strong hawkish message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the recent Jackson Hole symposium. Soaring inflation and the steep interest-rate hikes deployed by policy makers in response have brought to an end a four-decade bull market in bonds. That has created a particularly difficult environment for investors this year, with bonds and stocks sinking in tandem.
Under pressure from central bankers determined to quash inflation even at the cost of a recession, global bonds slumped into their first bear market in a generation. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index of government and investment-grade corporate bonds has fallen more than 20% below its 2021 peak, the biggest drawdown since its 1990 inception. Officials from the US to Europe have hammered home the importance of tighter monetary policy in recent days, building on the strong hawkish message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the recent Jackson Hole symposium. Soaring inflation and the steep interest-rate hikes deployed by policy makers in response have brought to an end a four-decade bull market in bonds. That has created a particularly difficult environment for investors this year, with bonds and stocks sinking in tandem.
Bottom-line: MSCI 신흥국지수에서 지배적 비중인 중국을 바로 뒤땨르는 국가가 대만에서 인도로 바뀜. 이번 분기 인도 주가지수는 +11% 상승하며 8월말 기준 신흥국지수 내 14.483% 비중을, 대만은 14.480% 비중을 차지함.
A sharp rebound in Indian stocks this quarter has just seen their weighting rise to the second spot in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, trailing only China. With 108 members, India’s country weight stands at 14.483% as of end-August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s a whisker above 14.480% for Taiwan, which has 84 companies in the MSCI EM gauge, including the most-weighted Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. China continued to dominate with about a third of the index weighting. India’s S&P BSE Sensex has jumped 11% this quarter, the world’s best performance among national benchmarks in countries with a stock market value of at least $1 trillion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
A sharp rebound in Indian stocks this quarter has just seen their weighting rise to the second spot in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, trailing only China. With 108 members, India’s country weight stands at 14.483% as of end-August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s a whisker above 14.480% for Taiwan, which has 84 companies in the MSCI EM gauge, including the most-weighted Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. China continued to dominate with about a third of the index weighting. India’s S&P BSE Sensex has jumped 11% this quarter, the world’s best performance among national benchmarks in countries with a stock market value of at least $1 trillion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Bottom-line: 씨티는 유럽중앙은행이 인플레이션 통제를 위해 앞으로 두 번의 통화정책회의 중 한 번은 75bp 인상을 해야는데 반박의 여지가 없지만, 이 결정이 짧고 강한 금리인상의 바닥이라 판단함. 현재 시장 참여자들은 두 번의 결정을 통해 126bp 수준의 금리인상을 점치고 있음.
Inflationary pressures make the case made by ECB hawks for a 75bps hike next week hard to dispute, with a “sharp and short” tightening cycle the most likely outcome, according to Citigroup. “A fast (but potentially short) tightening cycle is a compelling baseline” writes fixed income strategist Antoine Gaveau, noting that a 75bps move at one of the next two meetings is “a floor”. Money markets are wagering on 67bps at next week’s meeting and 126bps of tightening across the next two outcomes.
Inflationary pressures make the case made by ECB hawks for a 75bps hike next week hard to dispute, with a “sharp and short” tightening cycle the most likely outcome, according to Citigroup. “A fast (but potentially short) tightening cycle is a compelling baseline” writes fixed income strategist Antoine Gaveau, noting that a 75bps move at one of the next two meetings is “a floor”. Money markets are wagering on 67bps at next week’s meeting and 126bps of tightening across the next two outcomes.
Bottom-line: 캐리 트레이드 펀딩에 엔화를 사용하기에 내재이자율이 마이너스라는 드물게 좋은 조건이 형성됨. 반대로 미국 중앙은행의 매파적 통화정책과 위험회피 심리가 달러를 선호하게 만들며 엔화의 약세를 더욱 부추길 여지가 있음.
The yen is the cheapest currency to sell in the foreign-exchange market. Mark Cudmore has pointed out that USD/JPY’s soaring carry makes it so easy to go long the pair. Indeed, among 32 currencies, the yen is the only one that has a negative three-month yield. Even the Swiss franc and euro now have yields above zero. While that makes the Japanese currency a great source of funding for carry trade, the darker outlook for the world’s economy argues against buying growth-linked currencies. Instead, hawkish Fed policy and weakening risk appetite mean the dollar may be an ideal long candidate. This points to a further upside to USD/JPY even after breaking the psychological level of 140.
The yen is the cheapest currency to sell in the foreign-exchange market. Mark Cudmore has pointed out that USD/JPY’s soaring carry makes it so easy to go long the pair. Indeed, among 32 currencies, the yen is the only one that has a negative three-month yield. Even the Swiss franc and euro now have yields above zero. While that makes the Japanese currency a great source of funding for carry trade, the darker outlook for the world’s economy argues against buying growth-linked currencies. Instead, hawkish Fed policy and weakening risk appetite mean the dollar may be an ideal long candidate. This points to a further upside to USD/JPY even after breaking the psychological level of 140.
Bottom-line: 내가 판 가격보다 더 오르지 않았으면 좋겠단 수줍은 고백.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday could send convulsions through cryptocurrencies and push Bitcoin to as low as $15,000, according to a hedge fund that dumped much of its crypto holdings in late August. Elevated employment figures would raise the odds of more jumbo interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, jeopardizing the $20,000 level at which Bitcoin has been holding firm since a mid-August selloff, said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer of AlphaTrAI. Bitcoin “is very tied to macro sentiment right now,” Gokhman said in an interview. The $20,000 level “has an importance. If we did break down below that you will see a further drop,” he said.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday could send convulsions through cryptocurrencies and push Bitcoin to as low as $15,000, according to a hedge fund that dumped much of its crypto holdings in late August. Elevated employment figures would raise the odds of more jumbo interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, jeopardizing the $20,000 level at which Bitcoin has been holding firm since a mid-August selloff, said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer of AlphaTrAI. Bitcoin “is very tied to macro sentiment right now,” Gokhman said in an interview. The $20,000 level “has an importance. If we did break down below that you will see a further drop,” he said.
Payrolls just a tad above forecast. Unemployment rate is higher, and the average hourly earnings a tad weaker -- this is looking not so bad for the Fed.
Oh, very good news on labor-force participation. The Fed will be so happy to see that -- a 0.3 percentage point increase, to 62.4%.
Bottom-line: 노동시장은 여전히 견조함.
Looking at the household survey, the employment gain is very strong, at 442,000. This measure had actually dropped back in June, so the fact that it’s climbing again underscores that the labor market is still running very hot.
Looking at the household survey, the employment gain is very strong, at 442,000. This measure had actually dropped back in June, so the fact that it’s climbing again underscores that the labor market is still running very hot.
Bottom-line: 이번 보고서로 금리인상 폭을 판단하기보다 소비자 물가 보고서를 한 번 더 봐야 할 것 같음.
The slowing in hourly earnings growth to 0.3% at a monthly rate, from 0.5% in July, is certainly the right direction, but still leaves wages climbing much faster than policy makers would like. It’s very hard to see this report taking a 75-basis-point Fed hike off the table for Sept. 21. The consumer-price inflation report out on Sept. 13 will likely be the decider when it comes to 50 vs 75.
The slowing in hourly earnings growth to 0.3% at a monthly rate, from 0.5% in July, is certainly the right direction, but still leaves wages climbing much faster than policy makers would like. It’s very hard to see this report taking a 75-basis-point Fed hike off the table for Sept. 21. The consumer-price inflation report out on Sept. 13 will likely be the decider when it comes to 50 vs 75.
Here is a detailed industry breakdown of the headline August number of 315,000 new jobs.