Bottom-line: 캐리 트레이드 펀딩에 엔화를 사용하기에 내재이자율이 마이너스라는 드물게 좋은 조건이 형성됨. 반대로 미국 중앙은행의 매파적 통화정책과 위험회피 심리가 달러를 선호하게 만들며 엔화의 약세를 더욱 부추길 여지가 있음.
The yen is the cheapest currency to sell in the foreign-exchange market. Mark Cudmore has pointed out that USD/JPY’s soaring carry makes it so easy to go long the pair. Indeed, among 32 currencies, the yen is the only one that has a negative three-month yield. Even the Swiss franc and euro now have yields above zero. While that makes the Japanese currency a great source of funding for carry trade, the darker outlook for the world’s economy argues against buying growth-linked currencies. Instead, hawkish Fed policy and weakening risk appetite mean the dollar may be an ideal long candidate. This points to a further upside to USD/JPY even after breaking the psychological level of 140.
The yen is the cheapest currency to sell in the foreign-exchange market. Mark Cudmore has pointed out that USD/JPY’s soaring carry makes it so easy to go long the pair. Indeed, among 32 currencies, the yen is the only one that has a negative three-month yield. Even the Swiss franc and euro now have yields above zero. While that makes the Japanese currency a great source of funding for carry trade, the darker outlook for the world’s economy argues against buying growth-linked currencies. Instead, hawkish Fed policy and weakening risk appetite mean the dollar may be an ideal long candidate. This points to a further upside to USD/JPY even after breaking the psychological level of 140.
Bottom-line: 내가 판 가격보다 더 오르지 않았으면 좋겠단 수줍은 고백.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday could send convulsions through cryptocurrencies and push Bitcoin to as low as $15,000, according to a hedge fund that dumped much of its crypto holdings in late August. Elevated employment figures would raise the odds of more jumbo interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, jeopardizing the $20,000 level at which Bitcoin has been holding firm since a mid-August selloff, said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer of AlphaTrAI. Bitcoin “is very tied to macro sentiment right now,” Gokhman said in an interview. The $20,000 level “has an importance. If we did break down below that you will see a further drop,” he said.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday could send convulsions through cryptocurrencies and push Bitcoin to as low as $15,000, according to a hedge fund that dumped much of its crypto holdings in late August. Elevated employment figures would raise the odds of more jumbo interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, jeopardizing the $20,000 level at which Bitcoin has been holding firm since a mid-August selloff, said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer of AlphaTrAI. Bitcoin “is very tied to macro sentiment right now,” Gokhman said in an interview. The $20,000 level “has an importance. If we did break down below that you will see a further drop,” he said.
Payrolls just a tad above forecast. Unemployment rate is higher, and the average hourly earnings a tad weaker -- this is looking not so bad for the Fed.
Oh, very good news on labor-force participation. The Fed will be so happy to see that -- a 0.3 percentage point increase, to 62.4%.
Bottom-line: 노동시장은 여전히 견조함.
Looking at the household survey, the employment gain is very strong, at 442,000. This measure had actually dropped back in June, so the fact that it’s climbing again underscores that the labor market is still running very hot.
Looking at the household survey, the employment gain is very strong, at 442,000. This measure had actually dropped back in June, so the fact that it’s climbing again underscores that the labor market is still running very hot.
Bottom-line: 이번 보고서로 금리인상 폭을 판단하기보다 소비자 물가 보고서를 한 번 더 봐야 할 것 같음.
The slowing in hourly earnings growth to 0.3% at a monthly rate, from 0.5% in July, is certainly the right direction, but still leaves wages climbing much faster than policy makers would like. It’s very hard to see this report taking a 75-basis-point Fed hike off the table for Sept. 21. The consumer-price inflation report out on Sept. 13 will likely be the decider when it comes to 50 vs 75.
The slowing in hourly earnings growth to 0.3% at a monthly rate, from 0.5% in July, is certainly the right direction, but still leaves wages climbing much faster than policy makers would like. It’s very hard to see this report taking a 75-basis-point Fed hike off the table for Sept. 21. The consumer-price inflation report out on Sept. 13 will likely be the decider when it comes to 50 vs 75.
Here is a detailed industry breakdown of the headline August number of 315,000 new jobs.
Bottom-line: 이번 보고서가 중앙은행이 원하는 바로 그 모습, 더 많은 사람들이 노동시장으로 돌아오며 노동시장의 과열이 완화되는게 이처럼 임금에서도 보일 것임.
This is really what the Fed is hoping for, says former Fed official Randall Kroszner on Bloomberg TV. More people are coming back into the labor market and that helps to reduce the tightness of that market. You saw it manifest in slightly lower wage growth, he adds.
This is really what the Fed is hoping for, says former Fed official Randall Kroszner on Bloomberg TV. More people are coming back into the labor market and that helps to reduce the tightness of that market. You saw it manifest in slightly lower wage growth, he adds.
Here is tree-map visualization breakdown of the headline August number of 315,000 new jobs.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리인상 명분을 만들어 준 것에 더 해석이 치우치고 있음.
The strong August jobs report means the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise interest rates, though a surge in the US labor force could give central bankers the option to back off a little if they choose. Nonfarm payrolls increased 315,000 last month and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a six-month high of 3.7%, the first increase since January, as the participation rate climbed, a Labor Department report showed Friday. “You could still flip a coin on how big of an increase they do in September,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP. While the surge in the labor force was “wonderful,” she said, “I don’t think they want to show at any point in time that they have stopped in their resolve to really get inflation down.”
The strong August jobs report means the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise interest rates, though a surge in the US labor force could give central bankers the option to back off a little if they choose. Nonfarm payrolls increased 315,000 last month and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a six-month high of 3.7%, the first increase since January, as the participation rate climbed, a Labor Department report showed Friday. “You could still flip a coin on how big of an increase they do in September,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP. While the surge in the labor force was “wonderful,” she said, “I don’t think they want to show at any point in time that they have stopped in their resolve to really get inflation down.”
Bottom-line: BofA’s Subramanian Says US Stock Market Has Yet to Find a Bottom.
The strategists analyzed different macro and bottom-up data, including Fed policy, equity valuation, economic growth, investor sentiment and technical trends to determine what typically occurs ahead of a market bottom. Of the 10 consistent triggers, only 4 have been reached. In the past seven market bottoms, at least 80% were hit.
The strategists analyzed different macro and bottom-up data, including Fed policy, equity valuation, economic growth, investor sentiment and technical trends to determine what typically occurs ahead of a market bottom. Of the 10 consistent triggers, only 4 have been reached. In the past seven market bottoms, at least 80% were hit.
Bottom-line: 아시아 투자자들에게 동남아시아 시장이 선호되고 있는데, 기술 업종을 중심으로 수출을 영위하는 국가와 달리 인도와 동남아시아는 성장과 수익성 모두 긍정적이기 때문, 이들 국가에 투자 비중을 확대하면서 한국과 대만은 반대로 가장 크게 비중을 축소하고 있음. 낮은 기술 업종 비중과 상대적으로 높은 은행 비중이 최근 금리상승 구간에 우열을 가리는 요소기 때문임.
As global equities struggle after the Federal Reserve’s latest hawkish rhetoric, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is making the region an investor favorite. The revival stands in stark contrast to China, where a lockdown in megacity Chengdu has cast even more gloom over its economy and North Asian markets that rely on exports. “We are remaining focused on India and Southeast Asia markets,” Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of Asia Pacific equity research for BNP Paribas, said on Bloomberg TV. “These are not only growing in terms of economic revival post-Covid, but also strongly growing in terms of the earnings estimates.”. Such views are echoed by Credit Suisse strategists, who in a note last week said they remain overweight on Asean, with their favorite market being Thailand. South Korea and Taiwan are their biggest underweights. The composition of Southeast Asia’s equity benchmarks -- low tech weighting and relatively high ratio of bank shares -- is also favorable in a rising global interest-rate environment.
As global equities struggle after the Federal Reserve’s latest hawkish rhetoric, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is making the region an investor favorite. The revival stands in stark contrast to China, where a lockdown in megacity Chengdu has cast even more gloom over its economy and North Asian markets that rely on exports. “We are remaining focused on India and Southeast Asia markets,” Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of Asia Pacific equity research for BNP Paribas, said on Bloomberg TV. “These are not only growing in terms of economic revival post-Covid, but also strongly growing in terms of the earnings estimates.”. Such views are echoed by Credit Suisse strategists, who in a note last week said they remain overweight on Asean, with their favorite market being Thailand. South Korea and Taiwan are their biggest underweights. The composition of Southeast Asia’s equity benchmarks -- low tech weighting and relatively high ratio of bank shares -- is also favorable in a rising global interest-rate environment.