Payrolls just a tad above forecast. Unemployment rate is higher, and the average hourly earnings a tad weaker -- this is looking not so bad for the Fed.
Oh, very good news on labor-force participation. The Fed will be so happy to see that -- a 0.3 percentage point increase, to 62.4%.
Bottom-line: 노동시장은 여전히 견조함.
Looking at the household survey, the employment gain is very strong, at 442,000. This measure had actually dropped back in June, so the fact that it’s climbing again underscores that the labor market is still running very hot.
Looking at the household survey, the employment gain is very strong, at 442,000. This measure had actually dropped back in June, so the fact that it’s climbing again underscores that the labor market is still running very hot.
Bottom-line: 이번 보고서로 금리인상 폭을 판단하기보다 소비자 물가 보고서를 한 번 더 봐야 할 것 같음.
The slowing in hourly earnings growth to 0.3% at a monthly rate, from 0.5% in July, is certainly the right direction, but still leaves wages climbing much faster than policy makers would like. It’s very hard to see this report taking a 75-basis-point Fed hike off the table for Sept. 21. The consumer-price inflation report out on Sept. 13 will likely be the decider when it comes to 50 vs 75.
The slowing in hourly earnings growth to 0.3% at a monthly rate, from 0.5% in July, is certainly the right direction, but still leaves wages climbing much faster than policy makers would like. It’s very hard to see this report taking a 75-basis-point Fed hike off the table for Sept. 21. The consumer-price inflation report out on Sept. 13 will likely be the decider when it comes to 50 vs 75.
Here is a detailed industry breakdown of the headline August number of 315,000 new jobs.
Bottom-line: 이번 보고서가 중앙은행이 원하는 바로 그 모습, 더 많은 사람들이 노동시장으로 돌아오며 노동시장의 과열이 완화되는게 이처럼 임금에서도 보일 것임.
This is really what the Fed is hoping for, says former Fed official Randall Kroszner on Bloomberg TV. More people are coming back into the labor market and that helps to reduce the tightness of that market. You saw it manifest in slightly lower wage growth, he adds.
This is really what the Fed is hoping for, says former Fed official Randall Kroszner on Bloomberg TV. More people are coming back into the labor market and that helps to reduce the tightness of that market. You saw it manifest in slightly lower wage growth, he adds.
Here is tree-map visualization breakdown of the headline August number of 315,000 new jobs.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리인상 명분을 만들어 준 것에 더 해석이 치우치고 있음.
The strong August jobs report means the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise interest rates, though a surge in the US labor force could give central bankers the option to back off a little if they choose. Nonfarm payrolls increased 315,000 last month and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a six-month high of 3.7%, the first increase since January, as the participation rate climbed, a Labor Department report showed Friday. “You could still flip a coin on how big of an increase they do in September,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP. While the surge in the labor force was “wonderful,” she said, “I don’t think they want to show at any point in time that they have stopped in their resolve to really get inflation down.”
The strong August jobs report means the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise interest rates, though a surge in the US labor force could give central bankers the option to back off a little if they choose. Nonfarm payrolls increased 315,000 last month and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a six-month high of 3.7%, the first increase since January, as the participation rate climbed, a Labor Department report showed Friday. “You could still flip a coin on how big of an increase they do in September,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP. While the surge in the labor force was “wonderful,” she said, “I don’t think they want to show at any point in time that they have stopped in their resolve to really get inflation down.”
Bottom-line: BofA’s Subramanian Says US Stock Market Has Yet to Find a Bottom.
The strategists analyzed different macro and bottom-up data, including Fed policy, equity valuation, economic growth, investor sentiment and technical trends to determine what typically occurs ahead of a market bottom. Of the 10 consistent triggers, only 4 have been reached. In the past seven market bottoms, at least 80% were hit.
The strategists analyzed different macro and bottom-up data, including Fed policy, equity valuation, economic growth, investor sentiment and technical trends to determine what typically occurs ahead of a market bottom. Of the 10 consistent triggers, only 4 have been reached. In the past seven market bottoms, at least 80% were hit.
Bottom-line: 아시아 투자자들에게 동남아시아 시장이 선호되고 있는데, 기술 업종을 중심으로 수출을 영위하는 국가와 달리 인도와 동남아시아는 성장과 수익성 모두 긍정적이기 때문, 이들 국가에 투자 비중을 확대하면서 한국과 대만은 반대로 가장 크게 비중을 축소하고 있음. 낮은 기술 업종 비중과 상대적으로 높은 은행 비중이 최근 금리상승 구간에 우열을 가리는 요소기 때문임.
As global equities struggle after the Federal Reserve’s latest hawkish rhetoric, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is making the region an investor favorite. The revival stands in stark contrast to China, where a lockdown in megacity Chengdu has cast even more gloom over its economy and North Asian markets that rely on exports. “We are remaining focused on India and Southeast Asia markets,” Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of Asia Pacific equity research for BNP Paribas, said on Bloomberg TV. “These are not only growing in terms of economic revival post-Covid, but also strongly growing in terms of the earnings estimates.”. Such views are echoed by Credit Suisse strategists, who in a note last week said they remain overweight on Asean, with their favorite market being Thailand. South Korea and Taiwan are their biggest underweights. The composition of Southeast Asia’s equity benchmarks -- low tech weighting and relatively high ratio of bank shares -- is also favorable in a rising global interest-rate environment.
As global equities struggle after the Federal Reserve’s latest hawkish rhetoric, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is making the region an investor favorite. The revival stands in stark contrast to China, where a lockdown in megacity Chengdu has cast even more gloom over its economy and North Asian markets that rely on exports. “We are remaining focused on India and Southeast Asia markets,” Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of Asia Pacific equity research for BNP Paribas, said on Bloomberg TV. “These are not only growing in terms of economic revival post-Covid, but also strongly growing in terms of the earnings estimates.”. Such views are echoed by Credit Suisse strategists, who in a note last week said they remain overweight on Asean, with their favorite market being Thailand. South Korea and Taiwan are their biggest underweights. The composition of Southeast Asia’s equity benchmarks -- low tech weighting and relatively high ratio of bank shares -- is also favorable in a rising global interest-rate environment.
Bottom-line: 경기악화 우려에도 불구 인플레이션을 통제하기 위한 중앙은행의 움직임이 다음 주 연이어 있을 것임. 유럽 중앙은행이 75bp 인상 가능성이 있으며, 그 외 다른 중앙은행들도 금리인상에 동참할 것으로 예상됨.
Central banks around the globe are set to continue an assault on high inflation this week, even as vulnerabilities in their economies become ever clearer. Northern-hemisphere policy makers are forecast to deliver the more aggressive actions. Unprecedented tightening in the form of a 75-basis-point rate increase is expected from the European Central Bank on Thursday, a day after the Bank of Canada hikes by a similar amount. That would follow half-point moves anticipated on Tuesday in Australia and Chile. At least five other central banks around the world are also expected to raise rates in the coming week.
Central banks around the globe are set to continue an assault on high inflation this week, even as vulnerabilities in their economies become ever clearer. Northern-hemisphere policy makers are forecast to deliver the more aggressive actions. Unprecedented tightening in the form of a 75-basis-point rate increase is expected from the European Central Bank on Thursday, a day after the Bank of Canada hikes by a similar amount. That would follow half-point moves anticipated on Tuesday in Australia and Chile. At least five other central banks around the world are also expected to raise rates in the coming week.
IB Report: 미국 경제 데이터는 강한 회복력을 시사한 반면, 여타의 경제국은 더욱 불안정해지고 있는 바 추가적인 달러 강세를 전망함. 이러한 전망에 따라 달러 대비 유로화 절파폭도 기존보다 더 강하게 보며, 3개월 0.97, 6개월 097, 12개월 1.05로 함. 12개월 전망에는 높아진 금리가 일부 자본유입을 줄 수 있을것이란 기대가 담겨있음. (Goldman Sachs / More Dollar Strength Ahead)
Recent economic data have reinforced the resiliency of the US economy, and policymakers are still not convinced that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes. At the same time, the outlook in the rest of the world is still on shakier ground, and policymakers in Europe face a much more difficult trade-off in the face of a severe supply shock. We think this environment argues for further Dollar appreciation in the near term, and are therefore making a number of adjustments to our G10 Dollar forecasts. In particular, we are moving our EUR/USD forecast to 0.97, 0.97 and 1.05 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 0.99, 1.02 and 1.15 previously). This moves our baseline partway to the ‘downside’ scenarios we discussed over the summer. While the Euro area has made good progress in amassing gas storage for the coming winter, this has come at the cost of significant demand destruction via production cuts, and does not totally eliminate the risk of a more severe disruption over the winter. And, we still think the ECB’s response to the growth shock will be secondary for the currency; they are unlikely to fully offset the shift in the growth outlook, and more rapid rate rises into a growth slowdown would likely compound the credit shock to the periphery. But this is also more than a tactical shift in our view. Our previous 12m EUR/USD forecasts embedded some expectation that higher rates would catalyze a shift in capital flows back to Europe, which no longer seems likely given the deterioration in European energy security and the higher cost of production that entails. While there is still significant uncertainty about the medium and longer-term outlook, we think the situation warrants a more cautious baseline outlook, and therefore an even more persistent period of Dollar strength.
Recent economic data have reinforced the resiliency of the US economy, and policymakers are still not convinced that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes. At the same time, the outlook in the rest of the world is still on shakier ground, and policymakers in Europe face a much more difficult trade-off in the face of a severe supply shock. We think this environment argues for further Dollar appreciation in the near term, and are therefore making a number of adjustments to our G10 Dollar forecasts. In particular, we are moving our EUR/USD forecast to 0.97, 0.97 and 1.05 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 0.99, 1.02 and 1.15 previously). This moves our baseline partway to the ‘downside’ scenarios we discussed over the summer. While the Euro area has made good progress in amassing gas storage for the coming winter, this has come at the cost of significant demand destruction via production cuts, and does not totally eliminate the risk of a more severe disruption over the winter. And, we still think the ECB’s response to the growth shock will be secondary for the currency; they are unlikely to fully offset the shift in the growth outlook, and more rapid rate rises into a growth slowdown would likely compound the credit shock to the periphery. But this is also more than a tactical shift in our view. Our previous 12m EUR/USD forecasts embedded some expectation that higher rates would catalyze a shift in capital flows back to Europe, which no longer seems likely given the deterioration in European energy security and the higher cost of production that entails. While there is still significant uncertainty about the medium and longer-term outlook, we think the situation warrants a more cautious baseline outlook, and therefore an even more persistent period of Dollar strength.