Gap Inc. fired Chief Executive Officer Sonia Syngal after 2 1/2 years, with rising costs and deepening discounts threatening to wipe out this quarter’s operating profit. Chairman Bob Martin is taking over immediately as CEO on an interim basis, the company announced in a statement. Gap has reported operational missteps and swelling inventory levels recently, sparking declines in the stock market. Old Navy, which is responsible for the biggest part of Gap’s revenue, has been particularly affected, and in April announced the departure of that business’s top executive. 

함의: 원가 상승과 지나친 할인으로 이익이 소멸 직전인 낮은 가격 장벽의 의류 업체가 최고경영자에 책임을 물어 해고함.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic advised investors to further cut holdings in corporate debt while reducing underweight positions in bonds, in what amounts to a softening in their broad risk-on stance. While staying upbeat about a second-half rebound in stocks and commodities, the strategists reduced their credit exposure as a “partial hedge in an adverse scenario.” The revision also reflects a view that corporate bonds have yet to price in as much recession risk as assets like equities. 

함의: J.P.Morgan 전략가는 회사채는 주식보다 작금의 위험을 덜 반영한 것으로 보여 비중을 축소하라고 권고함.

Iran is preparing to provide Russia with hundreds of drone aircraft, including some capable of carrying weaponry, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Monday. Sullivan said US intelligence “indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline.” He didn’t detail the intelligence or its sources. “Our information further indicates Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs, with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July,” Sullivan told reporters during a press briefing.

함의: 이란이 무기를 탑재하는 드론을 러시아에 제공할 준비를 하고 있고, 이를 미국이 포착했음.

Australia’s largest pension fund sees the global economy struggling for about two more years as businesses and households adjust to tighter monetary and fiscal policies. 
Investors have been conditioned to think that market pullbacks are a short-term phenomenon but the current crisis is different, according to Mark Delaney, chief investment officer of the A$260 billion ($175 billion) pension giant AustralianSuper Pty. “It takes 12 months to two years for tighter monetary policy to impact on the economy -- and monetary policy is just getting tight now,” Delaney said in an interview with Bloomberg in London. “That would tell you that the downturn is coming in 18 months time.” 

함의: 호주 연기금은 긴축 사이클의 경제 파급효과가 1~2년, 침체는 1년 반 뒤 도래할 가능성이 있으므로 시장 하락이 단기간에 끝날 것으로 생각하지 않는다 함.

What leading indicators should investors watch to monitor the risk of falling into a recession in real time? We rank potential leading indicators by their leading properties and real time accuracy, and find that ISM new orders and other manufacturing surveys, consumer expectations, and initial jobless claims rank highly. The series that score the best on both dimensions have slowed in recent months—the three-month averages of the 10 highest-ranked indicators are consistent with slightly positive growth on average, though the very latest prints point to negative growth. We continue to see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year and nearly even odds at a two-year horizon. But the softening of leading indicators in June highlights the importance of monitoring more immediate downside risks.

보고서: 경기침체 속에도 고용은 탄탄하게 보일 수 있으나, 신규주문, 소비자심리, 실업수당청구건수는 침체를 모니터링하기에 적절함. (Goldman Sachs - Are We Already in a Recession?)

The axe was smart and convinced the trees because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.

함의: 최근 자본시장과 거시경제 해석을 보며 드는 생각은, 숲을 파괴하는 도끼 손잡이가 나무로 만들어졌다해서 친구인가?

All eyes will be on the euro Tuesday as it tumbles toward parity with the US dollar -- a level last seen 20 years ago. Energy concerns and the risk of recession are weighing on the outlook for Europe, while risk aversion fueled a broad rally in the greenback. There’s a vicious cycle breaking out for the euro, too, much like for the yen, as each of those economies have central banks that are less flexible and more dovish than the Fed. Even as the yield gap to the US narrows the euro keeps falling. Given that the common currency is the most-traded against the dollar, and the yen is the second-most, declines in the two currencies help to feed broader dollar strength.

함의: 침체 위기에 가장 근접한 유로의 약세, 엔화의 약세로 달러 지수의 강세가 지속 될 것으로 보임.

Nations are experiencing the first global energy crisis and “we might not yet have seen the worst of it,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, says Tuesday at a forum in Sydney.

함의: 에너지 위기는 현재가 끝이 아닐 수 있음.

Chinese electric-car giant BYD Co. slumped as much as 11% on Tuesday after a stake matching the size of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s appeared in Hong Kong’s stock-market clearing system, fueling speculation that Warren Buffett’s firm may be adjusting its holdings. Berkshire Hathaway held a 20.49% stake in BYD, according to Bloomberg data based on a December filing. Most of the share moves took place in accounts held by Citibank, according to exchange figures. “For BYD, we are seeing more than 20% of stake moved to the CCASS system. Only Berkshire would have that many shares as a single investor, so the market is worried Buffett is planning to sell,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. 

함의: 의미있는 투자자의 이탈 가능성에 하락.

Bitcoin may never fully recover from its latest slump, as the global macro environment shifts to an interest-rate world unseen since the cryptocurrency’s creation. The world’s largest digital currency has performed exactly as expected. Between November and June, it suffered the sixth 70%-plus drawdown of its 13-year existence. This is a feature of how it’s constructed, rather than a bug. It can never achieve stable equilibrium at high prices, so such crashes will continue to happen until it fades into irrelevance.

함의: 암호화폐가 탄생 한 13년 간 경험해보지 못한 환경을 마주하고 있어 고점 회복이 쉽지 않아 보이며, 11월에서 6월까지 -70% 이상 하락하는 6번의 반복을 보임.

Elon Musk said Donald Trump should forget about running for president in 2024 and instead should “sail into the sunset,” presumably to make way for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whom he supports. In a series of tweets to his 100 million followers on Monday night, Musk pointed out Trump, now 76, would be 82 at the end of a second term, and “that is too old to be chief executive of anything, let alone the United States of America.” He also said there was “too much drama” when Trump was in office. 

함의: 집권 당시 사건사고가 많았던 그가 더 큰 욕심 부리는 대신 자신이 지지하는 자를 후보로 이끌어달라 요청함.

With the yen on the cusp of 140 per dollar and beyond, traders are looking past Japan’s interest-rate gap with the rest of the world for additional reasons to sell the currency. Three of the most likely catalysts to spark a fresh wave of selling are higher oil prices, a blowout in Japan’s trade deficit and an improvement in risk sentiment, they say. The yen’s 16% slump against the greenback this year, the worst performance among Group-of-10 currencies, has made it the hottest macro short in recent history -- and some are hungry for more.

함의: 근래 가장 뜨거운 공매도 자산이었던 엔화에 대해 높은 유가, 무역적자, 위험선호심리를 들어 추가 약세 진행에 무게를 두고 있음.

Microsoft Corp. cut some jobs on Monday as it realigned business groups and roles after the close of its fiscal year on June 30. It said it plans to keep hiring for other roles and finish the current fiscal year with increased headcount. The layoffs, affecting less than 1% of the 180,000-person workforce, spanned a variety of groups including consulting and customer and partner solutions and were dispersed across geographies, the Redmond, Washington-based company said. “Today we had a small number of role eliminations. Like all companies, we evaluate our business priorities on a regular basis, and make structural adjustments accordingly,” Microsoft said in an emailed statement. “We will continue to invest in our business and grow headcount overall in the year ahead.”

함의: 투자와 고용을 늘릴 것이지만, 사업계획 상 중요도에 따라 정리해고를 실시했음.

Singapore state-owned investor Temasek Holdings Pte continues to see China as an important market, despite setbacks due to regulatory crackdowns and Covid lockdowns. Temasek will hunt for opportunities in artificial intelligence, city infrastructure and what it brands as “deep tech,” a phrase often referring to cutting edge technology such as semi-conductors, managing director Martin Fichtner said during an earnings call on Tuesday. China has been one of the best performing markets despite volatility, said Temasek chief investment officer Rohit Sipahimalani. “Most of the regulatory headwinds are behind us.”  

함의: 싱가폴 국부펀드는 중국의 규제 역풍은 이제 끝자락으로 보인다 함.

With parity all-but a done deal, the question now is where next for the euro. The defense of the $1.0000 line-in-the-sand means the cross has moved little in the past few hours, while sterling has continued to drop. If nothing else, this points to plenty of room for the euro to fall further once parity is breached, as it already has some catching up to do.

함의: 패리티 영역에서 방황 중인 유로가 이 지지선을 이탈할 경우 지속 하락 중인 파운드의 궤적을 따를 수 있음.

Dollar bonds of Chinese developers fell across the board Tuesday, with stress spreading from junk-rated names to investment-grade peers including China Vanke Co. amid renewed concerns about more Covid lockdowns in the country. Notes from Vanke, the country’s second-largest builder by contracted sales fell as much as 5 cents on the dollar, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg, on track for their biggest declines since March 2020. Investment-grade dollar bonds from peers Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. and Sino-Ocean Group Holding Ltd. were also poised to set record lows. Declines in high-yield notes were paced by Country Garden Holdings Co., China’s largest developer. 

함의: 중국 내 부동산 개발업체의 시장 내 지위, 그리고 채권 등급과 무관하게 하락 중임.

Emerging markets are under pressure from rising debt, slowing growth and soaring yields. Russia’s first-in-a-century external default, coming hard on the heels of Sri Lanka’s failure to pay, has contributed to the sense of impending crisis. Who might be next? Our scorecard finds El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan to be the most vulnerable.

함의: 신흥국 신용위험은 스리랑카, 러시아에서 끝나지 않을 것으로 보임.