Nations are experiencing the first global energy crisis and “we might not yet have seen the worst of it,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, says Tuesday at a forum in Sydney.

함의: 에너지 위기는 현재가 끝이 아닐 수 있음.

Chinese electric-car giant BYD Co. slumped as much as 11% on Tuesday after a stake matching the size of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s appeared in Hong Kong’s stock-market clearing system, fueling speculation that Warren Buffett’s firm may be adjusting its holdings. Berkshire Hathaway held a 20.49% stake in BYD, according to Bloomberg data based on a December filing. Most of the share moves took place in accounts held by Citibank, according to exchange figures. “For BYD, we are seeing more than 20% of stake moved to the CCASS system. Only Berkshire would have that many shares as a single investor, so the market is worried Buffett is planning to sell,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. 

함의: 의미있는 투자자의 이탈 가능성에 하락.

Bitcoin may never fully recover from its latest slump, as the global macro environment shifts to an interest-rate world unseen since the cryptocurrency’s creation. The world’s largest digital currency has performed exactly as expected. Between November and June, it suffered the sixth 70%-plus drawdown of its 13-year existence. This is a feature of how it’s constructed, rather than a bug. It can never achieve stable equilibrium at high prices, so such crashes will continue to happen until it fades into irrelevance.

함의: 암호화폐가 탄생 한 13년 간 경험해보지 못한 환경을 마주하고 있어 고점 회복이 쉽지 않아 보이며, 11월에서 6월까지 -70% 이상 하락하는 6번의 반복을 보임.

Elon Musk said Donald Trump should forget about running for president in 2024 and instead should “sail into the sunset,” presumably to make way for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whom he supports. In a series of tweets to his 100 million followers on Monday night, Musk pointed out Trump, now 76, would be 82 at the end of a second term, and “that is too old to be chief executive of anything, let alone the United States of America.” He also said there was “too much drama” when Trump was in office. 

함의: 집권 당시 사건사고가 많았던 그가 더 큰 욕심 부리는 대신 자신이 지지하는 자를 후보로 이끌어달라 요청함.

With the yen on the cusp of 140 per dollar and beyond, traders are looking past Japan’s interest-rate gap with the rest of the world for additional reasons to sell the currency. Three of the most likely catalysts to spark a fresh wave of selling are higher oil prices, a blowout in Japan’s trade deficit and an improvement in risk sentiment, they say. The yen’s 16% slump against the greenback this year, the worst performance among Group-of-10 currencies, has made it the hottest macro short in recent history -- and some are hungry for more.

함의: 근래 가장 뜨거운 공매도 자산이었던 엔화에 대해 높은 유가, 무역적자, 위험선호심리를 들어 추가 약세 진행에 무게를 두고 있음.

Microsoft Corp. cut some jobs on Monday as it realigned business groups and roles after the close of its fiscal year on June 30. It said it plans to keep hiring for other roles and finish the current fiscal year with increased headcount. The layoffs, affecting less than 1% of the 180,000-person workforce, spanned a variety of groups including consulting and customer and partner solutions and were dispersed across geographies, the Redmond, Washington-based company said. “Today we had a small number of role eliminations. Like all companies, we evaluate our business priorities on a regular basis, and make structural adjustments accordingly,” Microsoft said in an emailed statement. “We will continue to invest in our business and grow headcount overall in the year ahead.”

함의: 투자와 고용을 늘릴 것이지만, 사업계획 상 중요도에 따라 정리해고를 실시했음.

Singapore state-owned investor Temasek Holdings Pte continues to see China as an important market, despite setbacks due to regulatory crackdowns and Covid lockdowns. Temasek will hunt for opportunities in artificial intelligence, city infrastructure and what it brands as “deep tech,” a phrase often referring to cutting edge technology such as semi-conductors, managing director Martin Fichtner said during an earnings call on Tuesday. China has been one of the best performing markets despite volatility, said Temasek chief investment officer Rohit Sipahimalani. “Most of the regulatory headwinds are behind us.”  

함의: 싱가폴 국부펀드는 중국의 규제 역풍은 이제 끝자락으로 보인다 함.

With parity all-but a done deal, the question now is where next for the euro. The defense of the $1.0000 line-in-the-sand means the cross has moved little in the past few hours, while sterling has continued to drop. If nothing else, this points to plenty of room for the euro to fall further once parity is breached, as it already has some catching up to do.

함의: 패리티 영역에서 방황 중인 유로가 이 지지선을 이탈할 경우 지속 하락 중인 파운드의 궤적을 따를 수 있음.

Dollar bonds of Chinese developers fell across the board Tuesday, with stress spreading from junk-rated names to investment-grade peers including China Vanke Co. amid renewed concerns about more Covid lockdowns in the country. Notes from Vanke, the country’s second-largest builder by contracted sales fell as much as 5 cents on the dollar, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg, on track for their biggest declines since March 2020. Investment-grade dollar bonds from peers Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. and Sino-Ocean Group Holding Ltd. were also poised to set record lows. Declines in high-yield notes were paced by Country Garden Holdings Co., China’s largest developer. 

함의: 중국 내 부동산 개발업체의 시장 내 지위, 그리고 채권 등급과 무관하게 하락 중임.

Emerging markets are under pressure from rising debt, slowing growth and soaring yields. Russia’s first-in-a-century external default, coming hard on the heels of Sri Lanka’s failure to pay, has contributed to the sense of impending crisis. Who might be next? Our scorecard finds El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan to be the most vulnerable.

함의: 신흥국 신용위험은 스리랑카, 러시아에서 끝나지 않을 것으로 보임.

Peloton Interactive Inc. will stop building its bikes and treadmills at its own factories and rely solely on partners for manufacturing, marking one of the most dramatic steps yet to simplify its operations and reduce costs. The move is an about-face from Peloton’s strategy over the past three years, when it split manufacturing between its own facilities and partners. The company built a portion of its standard Bike models and the higher-end Bike+ using facilities it acquired in 2019 as part of buying Tonic Fitness Technology. It also relied on Taiwan-based manufacturing partner Rexon Industrial Corp. to build bikes and its Tread treadmill. Now, the company will cease operating its Tonic facilities and move all of its bike and treadmill manufacturing to Rexon, Chief Supply Chain Officer Andrew Rendich told Bloomberg News in an interview. “We are going back to nothing but partnered manufacturing,” he said. “It allows us to ramp up and ramp down based on capacity and demand.”

함의: 비용 축소와 탄력적 수요에 대응하기 위해 자체생산을 중단하고 위탁생산만 하기로 결정함.

Inflation continued to heat up in June, hitting a fresh pandemic peak that keeps the Federal Reserve geared for another big interest-rate hike later this month, economists project. The consumer price index probably increased 8.8% from a year earlier, marking the largest jump since 1981, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Compared to May, the widely followed gauge is seen climbing 1.1%, marking the third month in the last four that inflation has advanced at least 1%.

함의: 물가 상승의 끝이 보이지 않음.

Hong Kong suspended some non-emergency services in public hospitals as a surge in Covid patients strains the health-care system, with authorities warning the city’s virus situation continues to deteriorate. Some public hospitals have started to reduce non-urgent procedures including endoscopies and elective surgeries in order to shift resources to caring for the rising number of Covid patients, Hospital Authority Chief Manager Sara Ho said at a briefing on Tuesday. If the situation continues to worsen, more non-urgent operations and some day-time services will need to be adjusted too, she said.

함의: 홍콩 내 전염 환자 확산으로 병원 내 비응급 의료 서비스를 축소하고 자원을 전염 환자에 집중해야 한다고 함.

Have we been watching the wrong asset all morning? WTI has just plunged more than 5% to trade as low as $98.40 a barrel. The move looks like a break lower after support at $101 failed to hold. That level had survived a test yesterday. While the move may be mostly technical in nature, it does point to continued fears about economic growth. OPEC’s first oil market outlook for next year, on the other hand, suggests that demand will continue to outstrip supply next year. The cartel see a supply shortfall of about 1 million barrels a day, which should be enough to hold crude at elevated levels. Earlier, the IEA also warned that supplies will remain tight. Time will tell who has their forecast correct, but for right now, it is clear that oil traders, rather than producers, are driving the price action.

함의: 누가 옳은지는 시간이 증명하지만, 생산자가 수요에 대응하기 부족하다 말해도, 거래자들은 아래로 매도하며 움직임을 주도하는 중임.

Tech companies led a rebound in stocks, following a slide driven by fears that Federal Reserve rate hikes aimed at taming runaway inflation will sink the economy into a recession.

Stocks fluctuated amid fears that Federal Reserve rate hikes aimed at taming runaway inflation will sink the economy into a recession.