Bottom-line: 주식시장과 달리 채권시장은 전세계적 긴축이 경기를 침체로 몰아갈 가능성을 높게 보는 것 같음. 선진국 중앙은행의 우리를 2004년에서 2007년 금리인상 시기로 돌려두겠지만, 2000년대 4%를 상회하는 때까진 가지 않을 것으로 봄. 반면, 확대 중인 예상 금리 역전폭 확대는 경기침체, 그리고 이후 중앙은행의 금리인하를 가시화하고 있음.
Markets are on something of a knife’s edge this week waiting for the Fed and other central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes. Even as equities display resilience, the bond markets are clearly showing concern about the very strong chance that global policy tightening will lead to recessions around the globe. The average cash-rate across major developed economies is expected to surge another percentage point or so within a year to 2.5%, which will admittedly represent a slower pace than the 1.4 point increase over the past 12 months as policy makers woke up to non-transitory inflation. That would take us to the levels where the 2004-2007 global hiking wave kicked off, but traders don’t expect we will get above 4% the way that cycle and the 2000-era one did. Instead, the negative gap between the expected two-year policy average and the one-year keeps widening to signal central banks will have to cut, presumably as recessions move from potential to actual outcomes.
Markets are on something of a knife’s edge this week waiting for the Fed and other central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes. Even as equities display resilience, the bond markets are clearly showing concern about the very strong chance that global policy tightening will lead to recessions around the globe. The average cash-rate across major developed economies is expected to surge another percentage point or so within a year to 2.5%, which will admittedly represent a slower pace than the 1.4 point increase over the past 12 months as policy makers woke up to non-transitory inflation. That would take us to the levels where the 2004-2007 global hiking wave kicked off, but traders don’t expect we will get above 4% the way that cycle and the 2000-era one did. Instead, the negative gap between the expected two-year policy average and the one-year keeps widening to signal central banks will have to cut, presumably as recessions move from potential to actual outcomes.
Bottom-line: 스웨덴 중앙은행이 예상치인 75bp 보다 높은 100bp 금리인상을 하며 미국 중앙은행의 큰 폭 인상에 심리를 더 쏠리게 함.
Mind the g-force. The Riksbank kicked off a big week for global tightening by raising its policy rate a full percentage point, to 1.75%. Sweden's central bank had been expected to hike by 75 basis points. The move is likely to further speculation the Fed will push through an outsized increase tomorrow. The krona strengthened.
Mind the g-force. The Riksbank kicked off a big week for global tightening by raising its policy rate a full percentage point, to 1.75%. Sweden's central bank had been expected to hike by 75 basis points. The move is likely to further speculation the Fed will push through an outsized increase tomorrow. The krona strengthened.
Bottom-line: 실질금리와 금 간 역의 상관관계, 그리고 2011년 2월 이후 최고 수준인 실질금리와 당시 금 가격 1,400달러를 생각하면, 이제 작별을 고할 때가 된 것 같음.
As the US 10-year real yield rises to the highest since 2011, its ascent has of course major cross-asset implications from equities to precious metals. By this measure, coupled with an expected aggressive move by the Fed, gold has more downside risk ahead. The inverse correlation between gold and 10-year TIPs, measured over a 40-day period, is significant. The much-cited relationship is a driver of dulled sentiment for bullion as traders position themselves ahead of the FOMC, wagering on a 75-bps hike come Wednesday, and let’s not forget the chatter about a 100-bps hike. To put things into perspective, yields on 10-year TIPs are at the highest since late Feb., 2011. Back then, gold was around $1,400. In the words of Billy Joel, maybe it’s time to say goodbye to gold as we drive down the Fed Boulevard.
As the US 10-year real yield rises to the highest since 2011, its ascent has of course major cross-asset implications from equities to precious metals. By this measure, coupled with an expected aggressive move by the Fed, gold has more downside risk ahead. The inverse correlation between gold and 10-year TIPs, measured over a 40-day period, is significant. The much-cited relationship is a driver of dulled sentiment for bullion as traders position themselves ahead of the FOMC, wagering on a 75-bps hike come Wednesday, and let’s not forget the chatter about a 100-bps hike. To put things into perspective, yields on 10-year TIPs are at the highest since late Feb., 2011. Back then, gold was around $1,400. In the words of Billy Joel, maybe it’s time to say goodbye to gold as we drive down the Fed Boulevard.
Bottom-line: 올해 맥, 아이폰, 아이패드의 가격을 인상한 애플은 10월 5일부터 대다수 국가에서 앱스토어의 앱과 앱 내 구매 가격을 인상하겠다고 밝힘. 베트남을 제외한 다른 국가의 인상 이유는 밝히지 않았으나 달러 대비 여타 국가의 통화 약세에 기인한 것으로 보임.
Apple Inc. unveiled major increases to its price tiers on apps and in-app purchases from Europe to Asia, protecting its margins as major currencies tumble against the US dollar. Customers in nations that use the euro as well as those in Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Chile, Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan and Vietnam will all see price hikes as early as Oct. 5, the company said in a message to developers. The move in Vietnam also reflects new local regulations around tax collection, Apple said, without elaborating on why it’s raising prices elsewhere. The strong dollar may be a key driver. In Japan, prices are rising by roughly 30%, a significant hike that follows the yen’s dramatic weakening this year. Apple earlier this summer raised prices across its Mac, iPhone and iPad ranges to account for the currency disparity. The euro has suffered a similar fate, now trading at near parity against the US dollar and showing signs of further weakness ahead.
Apple Inc. unveiled major increases to its price tiers on apps and in-app purchases from Europe to Asia, protecting its margins as major currencies tumble against the US dollar. Customers in nations that use the euro as well as those in Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Chile, Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan and Vietnam will all see price hikes as early as Oct. 5, the company said in a message to developers. The move in Vietnam also reflects new local regulations around tax collection, Apple said, without elaborating on why it’s raising prices elsewhere. The strong dollar may be a key driver. In Japan, prices are rising by roughly 30%, a significant hike that follows the yen’s dramatic weakening this year. Apple earlier this summer raised prices across its Mac, iPhone and iPad ranges to account for the currency disparity. The euro has suffered a similar fate, now trading at near parity against the US dollar and showing signs of further weakness ahead.
Bottom-line: 그렇지, 이 정도 타이밍에 이런 인사가 2008년의 레거시를 가지고 한 마디 해줄 때가 됐지.
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500. “Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30%,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview Monday. In “a real hard landing,” which he expects, it could fall 40%. Roubini whose prescience on the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008 earned him the nickname Dr. Doom, said that those expecting a shallow US recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments. As rates rise and debt servicing costs increase, “many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die,” he said. “So we’ll see who’s swimming naked.”
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500. “Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30%,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview Monday. In “a real hard landing,” which he expects, it could fall 40%. Roubini whose prescience on the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008 earned him the nickname Dr. Doom, said that those expecting a shallow US recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments. As rates rise and debt servicing costs increase, “many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die,” he said. “So we’ll see who’s swimming naked.”
US stocks dropped and Treasury yields hit more multiyear highs as investors braced for the Fed meeting. The S&P 500 fell more than 1%, pushing it more than 10% below its Aug. 16 high.
Bottom-line: 한국의 20일간 수출이 전년 대비 -8.7%로 발표됐지만, 조업일수와 계절조정을 거칠 경우 우려를 더하는 수치는 아님.
South Korea’s 20-days exports delivered a nasty-looking headline result, registering the steepest y/y contraction since 2020. However, a day-count and seasonally-adjusted number shows shipments flat, so the readings should not increase concern about the health of the global economy and the outlook for risk assets.
South Korea’s 20-days exports delivered a nasty-looking headline result, registering the steepest y/y contraction since 2020. However, a day-count and seasonally-adjusted number shows shipments flat, so the readings should not increase concern about the health of the global economy and the outlook for risk assets.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리 결정을 앞두고 이미 지나치게 비관적인 시장에서 경험이 깊은 투자자는 주식과 채권에 대한 매도 포지션을 우선 청산하고 관망하라고 함.
Some investors have a message for anyone looking to bet big before one of the most pivotal Federal Reserve policy meetings of this year: don’t, or risk getting burned. “Close shorts on equities and bonds,” said Stephen Miller, a four-decade market veteran and investment consultant at GSFM, a unit of Canada’s CI Financial Corp. in Sydney. “I’d be closing long dollar positions too -- -- the next 24 hours are so uncertain when the market has already worked itself into such a pessimistic lather into the meeting.”. Miller’s caution is mirrored across trading desks from Woori Bank in Seoul to BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong as investors brace for another jumbo rate hike from a Federal Reserve bent on cooling surging price pressures. Markets are pricing in a 75-basis point rate increase with a chance of a full-percentage point rise -- a risk that would only compound recession fears.
Some investors have a message for anyone looking to bet big before one of the most pivotal Federal Reserve policy meetings of this year: don’t, or risk getting burned. “Close shorts on equities and bonds,” said Stephen Miller, a four-decade market veteran and investment consultant at GSFM, a unit of Canada’s CI Financial Corp. in Sydney. “I’d be closing long dollar positions too -- -- the next 24 hours are so uncertain when the market has already worked itself into such a pessimistic lather into the meeting.”. Miller’s caution is mirrored across trading desks from Woori Bank in Seoul to BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong as investors brace for another jumbo rate hike from a Federal Reserve bent on cooling surging price pressures. Markets are pricing in a 75-basis point rate increase with a chance of a full-percentage point rise -- a risk that would only compound recession fears.
Bottom-line: 소수지만 최종금리를 5%까지 전망하는 시장 참여자도 있는 반면, 기존 점도표는 모든 구간 4% 아래에 있음. 만일 통화정책회의에서 이 괴리를 충족시키지 못할 경우 달러는 강한 되돌림을 일으킬 수 있음.
The US dollar’s rally is at risk of a reversal if the Federal Reserve sets its interest-rate outlook at a lower level than traders are betting on. Market-implied expectations for the so-called dot plot jumped this month, with some betting the peak will be around 5%, if not higher. Markets are pricing a peak at 4.5% by March and an end-2023 rate of 4% to 4.25%. In contrast, the most recent forecasts by Fed officials in June are almost all below 4% for 2022-2024. “A more dovish dot plot may see some scope for USD to sell off,” said Galvin Chia, emerging-market FX strategist at Natwest Markets in Singapore. “Markets will be closely looking to this for guidance.”
The US dollar’s rally is at risk of a reversal if the Federal Reserve sets its interest-rate outlook at a lower level than traders are betting on. Market-implied expectations for the so-called dot plot jumped this month, with some betting the peak will be around 5%, if not higher. Markets are pricing a peak at 4.5% by March and an end-2023 rate of 4% to 4.25%. In contrast, the most recent forecasts by Fed officials in June are almost all below 4% for 2022-2024. “A more dovish dot plot may see some scope for USD to sell off,” said Galvin Chia, emerging-market FX strategist at Natwest Markets in Singapore. “Markets will be closely looking to this for guidance.”
European stocks and US futures erase losses sparked after Putin declared a “partial mobilization,” calling up more troops for the war in Ukraine.
Bottom-line: 100bp의 금리인상과 같은 이변이 없다면 확률적으로 이후 시장은 랠리를 보일 가능성이 있음.
US stocks may see a relief rally after the Fed, history shows, especially if officials don't spook investors with a 100 bp move or hugely hawkish remarks. Over the past 18 months, the S&P advanced after eight out of 10 Fed decisions, especially in January, March and June.
US stocks may see a relief rally after the Fed, history shows, especially if officials don't spook investors with a 100 bp move or hugely hawkish remarks. Over the past 18 months, the S&P advanced after eight out of 10 Fed decisions, especially in January, March and June.
Three in a row. The Fed raised rates by 75 bps as expected and forecast its benchmark would reach 4.6% in 2023, stepping up its fight against surging prices.
US stocks sank after some wild post-Fed gyrations as traders digested Powell's comments. The S&P 500 ended near session lows, pushing its slide from a January record to more than 20%.