Bottom-line: 올해 맥, 아이폰, 아이패드의 가격을 인상한 애플은 10월 5일부터 대다수 국가에서 앱스토어의 앱과 앱 내 구매 가격을 인상하겠다고 밝힘. 베트남을 제외한 다른 국가의 인상 이유는 밝히지 않았으나 달러 대비 여타 국가의 통화 약세에 기인한 것으로 보임.
Apple Inc. unveiled major increases to its price tiers on apps and in-app purchases from Europe to Asia, protecting its margins as major currencies tumble against the US dollar. Customers in nations that use the euro as well as those in Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Chile, Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan and Vietnam will all see price hikes as early as Oct. 5, the company said in a message to developers. The move in Vietnam also reflects new local regulations around tax collection, Apple said, without elaborating on why it’s raising prices elsewhere. The strong dollar may be a key driver. In Japan, prices are rising by roughly 30%, a significant hike that follows the yen’s dramatic weakening this year. Apple earlier this summer raised prices across its Mac, iPhone and iPad ranges to account for the currency disparity. The euro has suffered a similar fate, now trading at near parity against the US dollar and showing signs of further weakness ahead.
Apple Inc. unveiled major increases to its price tiers on apps and in-app purchases from Europe to Asia, protecting its margins as major currencies tumble against the US dollar. Customers in nations that use the euro as well as those in Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Chile, Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan and Vietnam will all see price hikes as early as Oct. 5, the company said in a message to developers. The move in Vietnam also reflects new local regulations around tax collection, Apple said, without elaborating on why it’s raising prices elsewhere. The strong dollar may be a key driver. In Japan, prices are rising by roughly 30%, a significant hike that follows the yen’s dramatic weakening this year. Apple earlier this summer raised prices across its Mac, iPhone and iPad ranges to account for the currency disparity. The euro has suffered a similar fate, now trading at near parity against the US dollar and showing signs of further weakness ahead.
Bottom-line: 그렇지, 이 정도 타이밍에 이런 인사가 2008년의 레거시를 가지고 한 마디 해줄 때가 됐지.
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500. “Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30%,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview Monday. In “a real hard landing,” which he expects, it could fall 40%. Roubini whose prescience on the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008 earned him the nickname Dr. Doom, said that those expecting a shallow US recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments. As rates rise and debt servicing costs increase, “many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die,” he said. “So we’ll see who’s swimming naked.”
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, sees a “long and ugly” recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022 that could last all of 2023 and a sharp correction in the S&P 500. “Even in a plain vanilla recession, the S&P 500 can fall by 30%,” said Roubini, chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates, in an interview Monday. In “a real hard landing,” which he expects, it could fall 40%. Roubini whose prescience on the housing bubble crash of 2007 to 2008 earned him the nickname Dr. Doom, said that those expecting a shallow US recession should be looking at the large debt ratios of corporations and governments. As rates rise and debt servicing costs increase, “many zombie institutions, zombie households, corporates, banks, shadow banks and zombie countries are going to die,” he said. “So we’ll see who’s swimming naked.”
US stocks dropped and Treasury yields hit more multiyear highs as investors braced for the Fed meeting. The S&P 500 fell more than 1%, pushing it more than 10% below its Aug. 16 high.
Bottom-line: 한국의 20일간 수출이 전년 대비 -8.7%로 발표됐지만, 조업일수와 계절조정을 거칠 경우 우려를 더하는 수치는 아님.
South Korea’s 20-days exports delivered a nasty-looking headline result, registering the steepest y/y contraction since 2020. However, a day-count and seasonally-adjusted number shows shipments flat, so the readings should not increase concern about the health of the global economy and the outlook for risk assets.
South Korea’s 20-days exports delivered a nasty-looking headline result, registering the steepest y/y contraction since 2020. However, a day-count and seasonally-adjusted number shows shipments flat, so the readings should not increase concern about the health of the global economy and the outlook for risk assets.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리 결정을 앞두고 이미 지나치게 비관적인 시장에서 경험이 깊은 투자자는 주식과 채권에 대한 매도 포지션을 우선 청산하고 관망하라고 함.
Some investors have a message for anyone looking to bet big before one of the most pivotal Federal Reserve policy meetings of this year: don’t, or risk getting burned. “Close shorts on equities and bonds,” said Stephen Miller, a four-decade market veteran and investment consultant at GSFM, a unit of Canada’s CI Financial Corp. in Sydney. “I’d be closing long dollar positions too -- -- the next 24 hours are so uncertain when the market has already worked itself into such a pessimistic lather into the meeting.”. Miller’s caution is mirrored across trading desks from Woori Bank in Seoul to BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong as investors brace for another jumbo rate hike from a Federal Reserve bent on cooling surging price pressures. Markets are pricing in a 75-basis point rate increase with a chance of a full-percentage point rise -- a risk that would only compound recession fears.
Some investors have a message for anyone looking to bet big before one of the most pivotal Federal Reserve policy meetings of this year: don’t, or risk getting burned. “Close shorts on equities and bonds,” said Stephen Miller, a four-decade market veteran and investment consultant at GSFM, a unit of Canada’s CI Financial Corp. in Sydney. “I’d be closing long dollar positions too -- -- the next 24 hours are so uncertain when the market has already worked itself into such a pessimistic lather into the meeting.”. Miller’s caution is mirrored across trading desks from Woori Bank in Seoul to BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong as investors brace for another jumbo rate hike from a Federal Reserve bent on cooling surging price pressures. Markets are pricing in a 75-basis point rate increase with a chance of a full-percentage point rise -- a risk that would only compound recession fears.
Bottom-line: 소수지만 최종금리를 5%까지 전망하는 시장 참여자도 있는 반면, 기존 점도표는 모든 구간 4% 아래에 있음. 만일 통화정책회의에서 이 괴리를 충족시키지 못할 경우 달러는 강한 되돌림을 일으킬 수 있음.
The US dollar’s rally is at risk of a reversal if the Federal Reserve sets its interest-rate outlook at a lower level than traders are betting on. Market-implied expectations for the so-called dot plot jumped this month, with some betting the peak will be around 5%, if not higher. Markets are pricing a peak at 4.5% by March and an end-2023 rate of 4% to 4.25%. In contrast, the most recent forecasts by Fed officials in June are almost all below 4% for 2022-2024. “A more dovish dot plot may see some scope for USD to sell off,” said Galvin Chia, emerging-market FX strategist at Natwest Markets in Singapore. “Markets will be closely looking to this for guidance.”
The US dollar’s rally is at risk of a reversal if the Federal Reserve sets its interest-rate outlook at a lower level than traders are betting on. Market-implied expectations for the so-called dot plot jumped this month, with some betting the peak will be around 5%, if not higher. Markets are pricing a peak at 4.5% by March and an end-2023 rate of 4% to 4.25%. In contrast, the most recent forecasts by Fed officials in June are almost all below 4% for 2022-2024. “A more dovish dot plot may see some scope for USD to sell off,” said Galvin Chia, emerging-market FX strategist at Natwest Markets in Singapore. “Markets will be closely looking to this for guidance.”
European stocks and US futures erase losses sparked after Putin declared a “partial mobilization,” calling up more troops for the war in Ukraine.
Bottom-line: 100bp의 금리인상과 같은 이변이 없다면 확률적으로 이후 시장은 랠리를 보일 가능성이 있음.
US stocks may see a relief rally after the Fed, history shows, especially if officials don't spook investors with a 100 bp move or hugely hawkish remarks. Over the past 18 months, the S&P advanced after eight out of 10 Fed decisions, especially in January, March and June.
US stocks may see a relief rally after the Fed, history shows, especially if officials don't spook investors with a 100 bp move or hugely hawkish remarks. Over the past 18 months, the S&P advanced after eight out of 10 Fed decisions, especially in January, March and June.
Three in a row. The Fed raised rates by 75 bps as expected and forecast its benchmark would reach 4.6% in 2023, stepping up its fight against surging prices.
US stocks sank after some wild post-Fed gyrations as traders digested Powell's comments. The S&P 500 ended near session lows, pushing its slide from a January record to more than 20%.
Bottom-line: 세번 연속 75bp 금리인상을 했지만, 인플레이션 통제를 위해 네번도 가능함을 암시함.
The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate rose to 4.4%. The estimate for the end of 2023 was boosted to 4.6%. The Fed on Wednesday raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points as it continues its fight to tame stubbornly high inflation.
The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate rose to 4.4%. The estimate for the end of 2023 was boosted to 4.6%. The Fed on Wednesday raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points as it continues its fight to tame stubbornly high inflation.
Bottom-line: 인플레이션 문제의 심각성을 너무나 늦게 인지했다는 비판을 받는 중앙은행은 그 어느 때보다 명확하게 물가를 위해 침체를 용인하겠다고 함. 그들이 말하는 더 낮은 성장과 더 높은 실업은 '경기침체'란 단어와 다름이 없음.
Federal Reserve officials gave their clearest signal yet that they’re willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation. Policy makers, criticized for being too late to realize the scale of the US inflation problem, are moving aggressively to catch up. They raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday for the third time in a row and forecast a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening before year end. That was more hawkish than expected by economists. In addition, officials cut growth projections, raised their unemployment outlook and Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly spoke of the painful slowdown that’s needed to curb price pressures running at the highest levels since the 1980s. “Powell’s admission that there will be below-trend growth for a period should be translated as central bank speak for ‘recession,’” said Seema Shah of Principal Global Investors. “Times are going to get tougher from here.”
Federal Reserve officials gave their clearest signal yet that they’re willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation. Policy makers, criticized for being too late to realize the scale of the US inflation problem, are moving aggressively to catch up. They raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday for the third time in a row and forecast a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening before year end. That was more hawkish than expected by economists. In addition, officials cut growth projections, raised their unemployment outlook and Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly spoke of the painful slowdown that’s needed to curb price pressures running at the highest levels since the 1980s. “Powell’s admission that there will be below-trend growth for a period should be translated as central bank speak for ‘recession,’” said Seema Shah of Principal Global Investors. “Times are going to get tougher from here.”
The Bank of England delivered a second consecutive half-point hike in its battle to bring down inflation, as three officials pushed for the institution to join its global peers in moving at an even quicker pace.
Bottom-line: 많은 이들이 파월의 볼커리안에 대해 이야기하고 있으나, 정작 볼커가 홀로 인플레이션을 진압한 것인지 생각해 볼 필요가 있음. 엄밀하게 말하면 볼커는 대통령에 의한 공급 측면의 혁명과 시장 요인에 의한 도움을 받았음. 1980년대 통화정책 외 디스인플레이션에 기여한 요소는, i) 대규모의 투자로 인해 성장과 세금 측면의 이득이 있었지만 인플레이션 감소법이 이에 비견할 바는 아니며, ii) 레이거노믹스의 생산성 향상이 있었지만 작금의 경제는 생산성이 떨어지고 있음. iii) 노동자의 교섭력을 약화시키는 지대한 일들을 많이 했지만, 최근 바이든 대통령은 이와 반대의 행동을 함.
Many noticed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Volckerian echoes Wednesday. It’s not surprising that he wants to be a Paul Volcker, but it does raise the question: Was Volcker truly successful on his own sole merits? Ned Davis Research’s Joseph Kalish points out that Volcker received needed assistance from President Ronald Reagan’s supply side revolution and from market-driven factors. Kalish lays out factors outside of monetary policy that contributed to the 1980s disinflation: Massive investment: Real fixed investment grew at double-digit rates in the 1980s both before and after the double-dip recessions, which probably was helped by lower taxes for a little while, too. Presently, the Inflation Reduction Act may contribute to this, though it “lacks the punch and immediacy” of Reagan’s tax cuts. Increased productivity: Reaganomics was instrumental in boosting productivity, so much so that it rebounded strongly though faded in 1987. In the second quarter of this year, Kalish noted the slide in productivity growth to a record postwar low despite new technologies that essentially could — and should — drive productivity higher. Diminishing clout for labor: When Reagan fired close to 12,000 air traffic controllers in August 1981, Volcker saw it as a “watershed” moment that emboldened private entities to do the same, possibly becoming one of the main factors in turning the tide on inflation during that period, Kalish said. Conversely, President Joe Biden has pledged to be pro-union. “Lower inflation from weaker labor may be harder to extract this cycle.”
Many noticed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Volckerian echoes Wednesday. It’s not surprising that he wants to be a Paul Volcker, but it does raise the question: Was Volcker truly successful on his own sole merits? Ned Davis Research’s Joseph Kalish points out that Volcker received needed assistance from President Ronald Reagan’s supply side revolution and from market-driven factors. Kalish lays out factors outside of monetary policy that contributed to the 1980s disinflation: Massive investment: Real fixed investment grew at double-digit rates in the 1980s both before and after the double-dip recessions, which probably was helped by lower taxes for a little while, too. Presently, the Inflation Reduction Act may contribute to this, though it “lacks the punch and immediacy” of Reagan’s tax cuts. Increased productivity: Reaganomics was instrumental in boosting productivity, so much so that it rebounded strongly though faded in 1987. In the second quarter of this year, Kalish noted the slide in productivity growth to a record postwar low despite new technologies that essentially could — and should — drive productivity higher. Diminishing clout for labor: When Reagan fired close to 12,000 air traffic controllers in August 1981, Volcker saw it as a “watershed” moment that emboldened private entities to do the same, possibly becoming one of the main factors in turning the tide on inflation during that period, Kalish said. Conversely, President Joe Biden has pledged to be pro-union. “Lower inflation from weaker labor may be harder to extract this cycle.”