Bottom-line: 레버리지 펀드들은 1972년 이후 첫 감세안을 발표하기 전에 파운드화에 대한 대규모 매수 포지션을 구축했음. 감세안 발표 후 파운드화는 달러 대비 큰 폭으로 하락함.
Hedge funds ramped up bullish bets on the pound just days before the currency slumped after the British government announced major tax cuts for rich households. Leveraged investors added 13,488 net long contracts during the week to Sept. 20 -- the biggest increase since March, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The bets came just before Liz Truss’s new government unveiled the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972, triggering a slide in the currency to a record low versus the dollar on wagers the stimulus will balloon the UK’s debt pile and supercharge inflation.
Hedge funds ramped up bullish bets on the pound just days before the currency slumped after the British government announced major tax cuts for rich households. Leveraged investors added 13,488 net long contracts during the week to Sept. 20 -- the biggest increase since March, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The bets came just before Liz Truss’s new government unveiled the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972, triggering a slide in the currency to a record low versus the dollar on wagers the stimulus will balloon the UK’s debt pile and supercharge inflation.
Bottom-line: 올 해 안에 파운드화가 달러에 등가가치에 이를 것이란 확률이 지난 주 금요일 32%에서 60%까지 급등했으며, 옵션을 통한 파운드화의 내재변동성은 대확산 시기의 20.62%에 근접한 20.05%를 기록했음.
It is looking more and more likely sterling will fall to parity against the dollar this year based on option market pricing. Sterling-dollar implied volatility suggests there is a 60% probability spot will hit 1.00 before the end of this year -- based on spot trading at 1.0552 -- compared to 32% on Friday. The currency pair plunged to a record low of 1.0350 Monday in Asian trading after Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer signaled more tax cuts might be in the pipeline. Markets are also expecting extreme turbulence, with sterling-dollar’s three month implied volatility surging 4.31 percentage points to 20.05% Monday. That’s fast approaching the high of 20.62% reached during the 2020 pandemic meltdown.
It is looking more and more likely sterling will fall to parity against the dollar this year based on option market pricing. Sterling-dollar implied volatility suggests there is a 60% probability spot will hit 1.00 before the end of this year -- based on spot trading at 1.0552 -- compared to 32% on Friday. The currency pair plunged to a record low of 1.0350 Monday in Asian trading after Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer signaled more tax cuts might be in the pipeline. Markets are also expecting extreme turbulence, with sterling-dollar’s three month implied volatility surging 4.31 percentage points to 20.05% Monday. That’s fast approaching the high of 20.62% reached during the 2020 pandemic meltdown.
Bottom-line: OECD는 주요 20개국 대부분의 성장률 전망을 하향하고, 더 높은 정책금리를 예상한다고 함.
The world as a whole has been jolted by the war in Ukraine, according to the OECD, which cut almost all growth forecasts for the Group of 20 next year while anticipating further interest-rate hikes too. The global economy will expand just 2.2% in 2023, the Paris-based organization said Monday. It slashed GDP forecasts for most of the G-20, with only Indonesia featuring a moderately higher outlook. Many of the group face noticeably faster inflation too.
The world as a whole has been jolted by the war in Ukraine, according to the OECD, which cut almost all growth forecasts for the Group of 20 next year while anticipating further interest-rate hikes too. The global economy will expand just 2.2% in 2023, the Paris-based organization said Monday. It slashed GDP forecasts for most of the G-20, with only Indonesia featuring a moderately higher outlook. Many of the group face noticeably faster inflation too.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리인상이 당분간 멈추지 않을 것을 마침내 깨달은 투자자들은 현금과 단기채권에 자금을 밀어넣고 있음. 한 때 아무것도 얻을게 없던 이곳에서 적게는 2%, 많게는 4%의 수익을 거둘 수 있기 때문임. 시장 참여자들이 이렇게 현금에 쏠리는 이유는 그저 살아남아 올해를 마무리하고 싶은 소망이기 때문이라 보고 있음.
From stocks to bonds, credit to crypto, money managers looking for somewhere to hide from the Federal Reserve induced storm battering virtually every asset class are finding solace in a long reviled corner of the market: cash. Investors have $4.6 trillion stashed in US money-market mutual funds, while ultra-short bond funds currently hold about $150 billion. And the pile is growing. Cash saw inflows of $30 billion in the week through Sept. 21, according to figures from EPFR Global. Where once that stash yielded practically nothing, the vast bulk now earns upwards of 2%, with pockets paying 3%, 4% or more. The suddenly respectable payout is one of the reasons traders have been in little rush to deploy their capital into riskier assets, even with prices at multiyear lows. The other is that as the Fed continues to push interest rates higher to tame inflation, market participants are finally coming to the realization that the central bank is unlikely to abandon its hawkish policy tilt anytime soon, leaving cash as the asset of choice to ride out the turmoil. “I don’t think it’s time to be a hero,” said Barbara Ann Bernard, founder of hedge fund Wincrest Capital. “The reason I have as much cash as I do is because I just want to survive and end the year up. This is going to be a tricky environment for a while.”
From stocks to bonds, credit to crypto, money managers looking for somewhere to hide from the Federal Reserve induced storm battering virtually every asset class are finding solace in a long reviled corner of the market: cash. Investors have $4.6 trillion stashed in US money-market mutual funds, while ultra-short bond funds currently hold about $150 billion. And the pile is growing. Cash saw inflows of $30 billion in the week through Sept. 21, according to figures from EPFR Global. Where once that stash yielded practically nothing, the vast bulk now earns upwards of 2%, with pockets paying 3%, 4% or more. The suddenly respectable payout is one of the reasons traders have been in little rush to deploy their capital into riskier assets, even with prices at multiyear lows. The other is that as the Fed continues to push interest rates higher to tame inflation, market participants are finally coming to the realization that the central bank is unlikely to abandon its hawkish policy tilt anytime soon, leaving cash as the asset of choice to ride out the turmoil. “I don’t think it’s time to be a hero,” said Barbara Ann Bernard, founder of hedge fund Wincrest Capital. “The reason I have as much cash as I do is because I just want to survive and end the year up. This is going to be a tricky environment for a while.”
Bottom-line: 11월까지 영국 중앙은행의 통화정책 회의가 없는 상황에서 무담보 차입금리가 상승하면서 비정례 통화정책 회의를 통한 70bp 이상의 금리인상을 베팅이 형성됨.
The 1-week SONIA rate has risen from 2.19% on the day of the last BoE hike (last week) to 2.92% today. As there is no scheduled meeting until November, this implies over 70 bps of hikes are priced in by next week (neglecting any quarter-end tightening of cash rates or widening of UK base rate vs SONIA basis). Cable is liking the rumor, holding up at around 1.07 now, but is exposed to any disappointment from the BoE.
The 1-week SONIA rate has risen from 2.19% on the day of the last BoE hike (last week) to 2.92% today. As there is no scheduled meeting until November, this implies over 70 bps of hikes are priced in by next week (neglecting any quarter-end tightening of cash rates or widening of UK base rate vs SONIA basis). Cable is liking the rumor, holding up at around 1.07 now, but is exposed to any disappointment from the BoE.
The euro is paring losses against the dollar as money markets now fully price in a 75-bp ECB rate hike in October. German and Italian 10-year bond yields are also off session highs.
Bottom-line: 기업공개 제시 가격 최상단에 거래를 밀어넣지 않은 투자자는 초과청약으로 인해 원화 환산 103조 기업의 주식 배정을 못받을 수 있음. 시장의 혼란과 인플레이션 위험에도 그 기업이 'Porsche'기에 가능한 일.
Volkswagen AG is likely to price the initial public offering of sports-car maker Porsche AG at the top end of an initial range, demonstrating the depth of demand for its share sale, according to terms seen by Bloomberg. Investor orders below 82.50 euros apiece risk missing out on the transaction, terms showed. Indicated demand for the offering exceeds deal size, according to the terms, despite market turbulence and concerns over rising inflation. Porsche shares were being marketed to investors at 76.50 euros to 82.50 euros apiece. At the top end of the price range, the business would be valued at 75 billion euros ($72.7 billion). The company is expected to set the final IPO offer price after the order book for the share sale closes Wednesday. The new stock will start trading a day later.
Volkswagen AG is likely to price the initial public offering of sports-car maker Porsche AG at the top end of an initial range, demonstrating the depth of demand for its share sale, according to terms seen by Bloomberg. Investor orders below 82.50 euros apiece risk missing out on the transaction, terms showed. Indicated demand for the offering exceeds deal size, according to the terms, despite market turbulence and concerns over rising inflation. Porsche shares were being marketed to investors at 76.50 euros to 82.50 euros apiece. At the top end of the price range, the business would be valued at 75 billion euros ($72.7 billion). The company is expected to set the final IPO offer price after the order book for the share sale closes Wednesday. The new stock will start trading a day later.
US stocks fell and bond prices plummeted. The S&P 500 lost 1% while the Nasdaq gave up 0.6%. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year climbing almost 24 bps to 3.92%, its highest level since April 2010.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 주식에 대해 비중축소로 의견을 하향하고 현금에 대한 비중확대를 유지함. 실질금리 상승과 경기침체 확률 상승이 주식가격에 완전히 반영되지 않았기에 현재의 하락 추세를 더 이어갈 수 있다고 봄.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded equities to underweight in its global allocation over the next three months while remaining overweight cash, saying rising real yields and the prospect of a recession suggest the rout has further to run. The US investment bank’s market-implied recession probability has increased to above 40% following the recent bond sell-off, “which historically has indicated elevated equity drawdown risk,” strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note Monday. “Current levels of equity valuations may not fully reflect related risks and might have to decline further to reach a market trough,” they said, adding that real yields continue to be a major headwind.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded equities to underweight in its global allocation over the next three months while remaining overweight cash, saying rising real yields and the prospect of a recession suggest the rout has further to run. The US investment bank’s market-implied recession probability has increased to above 40% following the recent bond sell-off, “which historically has indicated elevated equity drawdown risk,” strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note Monday. “Current levels of equity valuations may not fully reflect related risks and might have to decline further to reach a market trough,” they said, adding that real yields continue to be a major headwind.
Bottom-line: TINA to TARA
As stock market volatility continues to rise, JPMorgan Asset is also sticking to its underweight on equities heading into the fourth quarter. The firm ‘strongly’ favors investment-grade credit over high yield, Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist, wrote Tuesday, anticipating sluggish growth in the US and recession in Europe over the next 12 months. A global recession probability model by Ned Davis Research recently rose above 98%, triggering a “severe” recession signal. The only other times it has been that high was during previous acute downturns, such as in 2020 and 2008-2009, according to the firm. The days of the TINA -- There Is No Alternative -- mantra for stocks are over, the Goldman strategists wrote. While falling yields had burnished the appeal of equities since the global financial crisis, “investors are now facing TARA (There Are Reasonable Alternatives) with bonds appearing more attractive,” they wrote.
As stock market volatility continues to rise, JPMorgan Asset is also sticking to its underweight on equities heading into the fourth quarter. The firm ‘strongly’ favors investment-grade credit over high yield, Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist, wrote Tuesday, anticipating sluggish growth in the US and recession in Europe over the next 12 months. A global recession probability model by Ned Davis Research recently rose above 98%, triggering a “severe” recession signal. The only other times it has been that high was during previous acute downturns, such as in 2020 and 2008-2009, according to the firm. The days of the TINA -- There Is No Alternative -- mantra for stocks are over, the Goldman strategists wrote. While falling yields had burnished the appeal of equities since the global financial crisis, “investors are now facing TARA (There Are Reasonable Alternatives) with bonds appearing more attractive,” they wrote.
Bottom-line: 약 235bp로 1962년 이후 연간 가장 큰 폭 상승한 국채금리 속에서 시장 파급력이 강한 투자자 한명은 채권에 대한 매수 기회가 마련되고 있다함. 원화 환산 152조원 이상을 운용하는 더블라인캐피탈의 제프리 건들락은 최근 채권 매수자로 전환했다함.
There’s at least one major investor who thinks the worst global bond rout in decades is creating a buying opportunity. While US 10-year yields have climbed about 235 basis points in 2022, exceeding any annual increase on record in data going back to 1962, there was some relief in Asian trading Tuesday with the benchmark yield falling seven basis points to 3.85%. “The U.S. Treasury Bond market is rallying,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer for Doubleline Capital, which manages more than $107 billion, in a tweet. “Been a long time. I have been a buyer recently.”
There’s at least one major investor who thinks the worst global bond rout in decades is creating a buying opportunity. While US 10-year yields have climbed about 235 basis points in 2022, exceeding any annual increase on record in data going back to 1962, there was some relief in Asian trading Tuesday with the benchmark yield falling seven basis points to 3.85%. “The U.S. Treasury Bond market is rallying,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer for Doubleline Capital, which manages more than $107 billion, in a tweet. “Been a long time. I have been a buyer recently.”
Bottom-line: 유럽의 대표적 사치재 브랜드는 달러 매출 비중이 높기 때문에 매출과 비용 측면에서 이득을 보고, 높아진 이윤을 통한 투자확대로 내년도 수익 회복력을 높일 것임.
Heritage luxury-goods companies with majority production in France, Italy and other euro areas may reap sizable forex benefits on sales and costs, with the profit boost directly feeding raised investments, which could further enhance revenue and earnings recovery into 2023. Sterling-based makers may get a similar benefit. The euro has depreciated almost 20% this year vs. the dollar, and sterling -- at a 37-year low -- dropped 17% in 2022, with only limited strengthening forecast in 2023. European luxury makers with the highest dollar sales exposure include Salvatore Ferragamo (29% of sales in the US in 2021), Kering (27%) and LVMH (26%). UK-listed Burberry gets 25% of sales in the Americas, Hugo Boss 20%, Prada 19% and Hermes and Moncler each get 16% from there.
Heritage luxury-goods companies with majority production in France, Italy and other euro areas may reap sizable forex benefits on sales and costs, with the profit boost directly feeding raised investments, which could further enhance revenue and earnings recovery into 2023. Sterling-based makers may get a similar benefit. The euro has depreciated almost 20% this year vs. the dollar, and sterling -- at a 37-year low -- dropped 17% in 2022, with only limited strengthening forecast in 2023. European luxury makers with the highest dollar sales exposure include Salvatore Ferragamo (29% of sales in the US in 2021), Kering (27%) and LVMH (26%). UK-listed Burberry gets 25% of sales in the Americas, Hugo Boss 20%, Prada 19% and Hermes and Moncler each get 16% from there.
Bottom-line: 기업공개 거래가 전세계 주식시장에 걸쳐 말라버린 것과 마찬가지로, 인수 및 합병 거래 또한 8개 분개 연속 1조 달러 이상의 거래를 성사시키며 출발했지만, 아홉번째의 달성에는 실패했음. 이번 분기에 이뤄진 인수 및 합병 거래액은 6,400만 달러로 2020년 2분기 대확산으로 거래가 중단 된 이후 최저치를 기록했음. 인플레이션과 높은 금리, 에너지 위기 등이 딜메이커와 이사회를 망설이게 했기 때문이며, 이를 증명하듯 이번 분기 최대 금액 중 하나는 에너지 위기로 인한 유니퍼의 국유화 거래였음.
Dealmakers went into the summer on a record run of eight consecutive $1 trillion-plus quarters. In the end, they didn’t come close to making it nine. Little more than $640 billion worth of deals have been agreed since the start of July, Bloomberg data show. That’ll make this the worst quarter for mergers and acquisitions since 2Q 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic brought dealmaking to a halt. The slowdown is anchored in rampant inflation, rising rates and a worldwide energy crisis that shows few signs of easing. Credit markets are tightening, choking off the lifeblood of private equity buyouts, and recession fears are keeping boards in wait-and-see mode. It’s telling that one of the quarter’s biggest transactions has been the nationalization of German gas giant Uniper—a deal struck to prevent the collapse of the country’s energy sector brought to its knees by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Elsewhere, initial public offerings have dried up across (almost) all major regions as stock markets continue on their downward trajectory. Listings of special purpose acquisition vehicles—darlings of the 2021 boom—are also nowhere to be seen.
Dealmakers went into the summer on a record run of eight consecutive $1 trillion-plus quarters. In the end, they didn’t come close to making it nine. Little more than $640 billion worth of deals have been agreed since the start of July, Bloomberg data show. That’ll make this the worst quarter for mergers and acquisitions since 2Q 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic brought dealmaking to a halt. The slowdown is anchored in rampant inflation, rising rates and a worldwide energy crisis that shows few signs of easing. Credit markets are tightening, choking off the lifeblood of private equity buyouts, and recession fears are keeping boards in wait-and-see mode. It’s telling that one of the quarter’s biggest transactions has been the nationalization of German gas giant Uniper—a deal struck to prevent the collapse of the country’s energy sector brought to its knees by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Elsewhere, initial public offerings have dried up across (almost) all major regions as stock markets continue on their downward trajectory. Listings of special purpose acquisition vehicles—darlings of the 2021 boom—are also nowhere to be seen.