The euro is paring losses against the dollar as money markets now fully price in a 75-bp ECB rate hike in October. German and Italian 10-year bond yields are also off session highs.
Bottom-line: 기업공개 제시 가격 최상단에 거래를 밀어넣지 않은 투자자는 초과청약으로 인해 원화 환산 103조 기업의 주식 배정을 못받을 수 있음. 시장의 혼란과 인플레이션 위험에도 그 기업이 'Porsche'기에 가능한 일.
Volkswagen AG is likely to price the initial public offering of sports-car maker Porsche AG at the top end of an initial range, demonstrating the depth of demand for its share sale, according to terms seen by Bloomberg. Investor orders below 82.50 euros apiece risk missing out on the transaction, terms showed. Indicated demand for the offering exceeds deal size, according to the terms, despite market turbulence and concerns over rising inflation. Porsche shares were being marketed to investors at 76.50 euros to 82.50 euros apiece. At the top end of the price range, the business would be valued at 75 billion euros ($72.7 billion). The company is expected to set the final IPO offer price after the order book for the share sale closes Wednesday. The new stock will start trading a day later.
Volkswagen AG is likely to price the initial public offering of sports-car maker Porsche AG at the top end of an initial range, demonstrating the depth of demand for its share sale, according to terms seen by Bloomberg. Investor orders below 82.50 euros apiece risk missing out on the transaction, terms showed. Indicated demand for the offering exceeds deal size, according to the terms, despite market turbulence and concerns over rising inflation. Porsche shares were being marketed to investors at 76.50 euros to 82.50 euros apiece. At the top end of the price range, the business would be valued at 75 billion euros ($72.7 billion). The company is expected to set the final IPO offer price after the order book for the share sale closes Wednesday. The new stock will start trading a day later.
US stocks fell and bond prices plummeted. The S&P 500 lost 1% while the Nasdaq gave up 0.6%. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year climbing almost 24 bps to 3.92%, its highest level since April 2010.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 주식에 대해 비중축소로 의견을 하향하고 현금에 대한 비중확대를 유지함. 실질금리 상승과 경기침체 확률 상승이 주식가격에 완전히 반영되지 않았기에 현재의 하락 추세를 더 이어갈 수 있다고 봄.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded equities to underweight in its global allocation over the next three months while remaining overweight cash, saying rising real yields and the prospect of a recession suggest the rout has further to run. The US investment bank’s market-implied recession probability has increased to above 40% following the recent bond sell-off, “which historically has indicated elevated equity drawdown risk,” strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note Monday. “Current levels of equity valuations may not fully reflect related risks and might have to decline further to reach a market trough,” they said, adding that real yields continue to be a major headwind.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded equities to underweight in its global allocation over the next three months while remaining overweight cash, saying rising real yields and the prospect of a recession suggest the rout has further to run. The US investment bank’s market-implied recession probability has increased to above 40% following the recent bond sell-off, “which historically has indicated elevated equity drawdown risk,” strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note Monday. “Current levels of equity valuations may not fully reflect related risks and might have to decline further to reach a market trough,” they said, adding that real yields continue to be a major headwind.
Bottom-line: TINA to TARA
As stock market volatility continues to rise, JPMorgan Asset is also sticking to its underweight on equities heading into the fourth quarter. The firm ‘strongly’ favors investment-grade credit over high yield, Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist, wrote Tuesday, anticipating sluggish growth in the US and recession in Europe over the next 12 months. A global recession probability model by Ned Davis Research recently rose above 98%, triggering a “severe” recession signal. The only other times it has been that high was during previous acute downturns, such as in 2020 and 2008-2009, according to the firm. The days of the TINA -- There Is No Alternative -- mantra for stocks are over, the Goldman strategists wrote. While falling yields had burnished the appeal of equities since the global financial crisis, “investors are now facing TARA (There Are Reasonable Alternatives) with bonds appearing more attractive,” they wrote.
As stock market volatility continues to rise, JPMorgan Asset is also sticking to its underweight on equities heading into the fourth quarter. The firm ‘strongly’ favors investment-grade credit over high yield, Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist, wrote Tuesday, anticipating sluggish growth in the US and recession in Europe over the next 12 months. A global recession probability model by Ned Davis Research recently rose above 98%, triggering a “severe” recession signal. The only other times it has been that high was during previous acute downturns, such as in 2020 and 2008-2009, according to the firm. The days of the TINA -- There Is No Alternative -- mantra for stocks are over, the Goldman strategists wrote. While falling yields had burnished the appeal of equities since the global financial crisis, “investors are now facing TARA (There Are Reasonable Alternatives) with bonds appearing more attractive,” they wrote.
Bottom-line: 약 235bp로 1962년 이후 연간 가장 큰 폭 상승한 국채금리 속에서 시장 파급력이 강한 투자자 한명은 채권에 대한 매수 기회가 마련되고 있다함. 원화 환산 152조원 이상을 운용하는 더블라인캐피탈의 제프리 건들락은 최근 채권 매수자로 전환했다함.
There’s at least one major investor who thinks the worst global bond rout in decades is creating a buying opportunity. While US 10-year yields have climbed about 235 basis points in 2022, exceeding any annual increase on record in data going back to 1962, there was some relief in Asian trading Tuesday with the benchmark yield falling seven basis points to 3.85%. “The U.S. Treasury Bond market is rallying,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer for Doubleline Capital, which manages more than $107 billion, in a tweet. “Been a long time. I have been a buyer recently.”
There’s at least one major investor who thinks the worst global bond rout in decades is creating a buying opportunity. While US 10-year yields have climbed about 235 basis points in 2022, exceeding any annual increase on record in data going back to 1962, there was some relief in Asian trading Tuesday with the benchmark yield falling seven basis points to 3.85%. “The U.S. Treasury Bond market is rallying,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer for Doubleline Capital, which manages more than $107 billion, in a tweet. “Been a long time. I have been a buyer recently.”
Bottom-line: 유럽의 대표적 사치재 브랜드는 달러 매출 비중이 높기 때문에 매출과 비용 측면에서 이득을 보고, 높아진 이윤을 통한 투자확대로 내년도 수익 회복력을 높일 것임.
Heritage luxury-goods companies with majority production in France, Italy and other euro areas may reap sizable forex benefits on sales and costs, with the profit boost directly feeding raised investments, which could further enhance revenue and earnings recovery into 2023. Sterling-based makers may get a similar benefit. The euro has depreciated almost 20% this year vs. the dollar, and sterling -- at a 37-year low -- dropped 17% in 2022, with only limited strengthening forecast in 2023. European luxury makers with the highest dollar sales exposure include Salvatore Ferragamo (29% of sales in the US in 2021), Kering (27%) and LVMH (26%). UK-listed Burberry gets 25% of sales in the Americas, Hugo Boss 20%, Prada 19% and Hermes and Moncler each get 16% from there.
Heritage luxury-goods companies with majority production in France, Italy and other euro areas may reap sizable forex benefits on sales and costs, with the profit boost directly feeding raised investments, which could further enhance revenue and earnings recovery into 2023. Sterling-based makers may get a similar benefit. The euro has depreciated almost 20% this year vs. the dollar, and sterling -- at a 37-year low -- dropped 17% in 2022, with only limited strengthening forecast in 2023. European luxury makers with the highest dollar sales exposure include Salvatore Ferragamo (29% of sales in the US in 2021), Kering (27%) and LVMH (26%). UK-listed Burberry gets 25% of sales in the Americas, Hugo Boss 20%, Prada 19% and Hermes and Moncler each get 16% from there.
Bottom-line: 기업공개 거래가 전세계 주식시장에 걸쳐 말라버린 것과 마찬가지로, 인수 및 합병 거래 또한 8개 분개 연속 1조 달러 이상의 거래를 성사시키며 출발했지만, 아홉번째의 달성에는 실패했음. 이번 분기에 이뤄진 인수 및 합병 거래액은 6,400만 달러로 2020년 2분기 대확산으로 거래가 중단 된 이후 최저치를 기록했음. 인플레이션과 높은 금리, 에너지 위기 등이 딜메이커와 이사회를 망설이게 했기 때문이며, 이를 증명하듯 이번 분기 최대 금액 중 하나는 에너지 위기로 인한 유니퍼의 국유화 거래였음.
Dealmakers went into the summer on a record run of eight consecutive $1 trillion-plus quarters. In the end, they didn’t come close to making it nine. Little more than $640 billion worth of deals have been agreed since the start of July, Bloomberg data show. That’ll make this the worst quarter for mergers and acquisitions since 2Q 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic brought dealmaking to a halt. The slowdown is anchored in rampant inflation, rising rates and a worldwide energy crisis that shows few signs of easing. Credit markets are tightening, choking off the lifeblood of private equity buyouts, and recession fears are keeping boards in wait-and-see mode. It’s telling that one of the quarter’s biggest transactions has been the nationalization of German gas giant Uniper—a deal struck to prevent the collapse of the country’s energy sector brought to its knees by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Elsewhere, initial public offerings have dried up across (almost) all major regions as stock markets continue on their downward trajectory. Listings of special purpose acquisition vehicles—darlings of the 2021 boom—are also nowhere to be seen.
Dealmakers went into the summer on a record run of eight consecutive $1 trillion-plus quarters. In the end, they didn’t come close to making it nine. Little more than $640 billion worth of deals have been agreed since the start of July, Bloomberg data show. That’ll make this the worst quarter for mergers and acquisitions since 2Q 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic brought dealmaking to a halt. The slowdown is anchored in rampant inflation, rising rates and a worldwide energy crisis that shows few signs of easing. Credit markets are tightening, choking off the lifeblood of private equity buyouts, and recession fears are keeping boards in wait-and-see mode. It’s telling that one of the quarter’s biggest transactions has been the nationalization of German gas giant Uniper—a deal struck to prevent the collapse of the country’s energy sector brought to its knees by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Elsewhere, initial public offerings have dried up across (almost) all major regions as stock markets continue on their downward trajectory. Listings of special purpose acquisition vehicles—darlings of the 2021 boom—are also nowhere to be seen.
Bottom-line: 5거래일을 연일 하락한 뒤 주식시장은 첫 반등을 모색하고 있음. 일반적으로 월말에는 자산군 비중에 대한 평균회귀 성격의 재분배가 이뤄지는데 의한 도움도 있음. 다만, 대형 운용사 매니저들이 여전히 신중한 입장을 고수하고 있으며, 1990년대 이후 6번의 약세장에서 저점을 기록한 12개월 선행 주가수익비율 평균 12.81배보다 훨씬 높은 16배라는 것도 주식이 완전한 할인에 들어섰다 말하기 어려운 점임.
US futures are staging a bounce this morning for the first time in six days as global bond yields take a breather. The cross-asset picture looks conducive to a rebound. The pound seems to have stabilized for now and the dollar is weaker. In the final trading days of the month, mean reversion typically kicks in as investors rebalance portfolios. Particularly as stocks have sold off more than bonds -- down nearly 8% in September as of yesterday’s close vs 4% for Treasuries. Still, bearish calls from big asset managers are a reminder that caution persists. Stocks got cheaper but they’re far from an obvious bargain. At 17.9 times earnings, its current P/E is still the highest of any bear-market lows since the 1950s. On a 12-month forward P/E basis, the ~16 times multiple is way above the 12.81 average seen during the six bear markets since the 1990s.
US futures are staging a bounce this morning for the first time in six days as global bond yields take a breather. The cross-asset picture looks conducive to a rebound. The pound seems to have stabilized for now and the dollar is weaker. In the final trading days of the month, mean reversion typically kicks in as investors rebalance portfolios. Particularly as stocks have sold off more than bonds -- down nearly 8% in September as of yesterday’s close vs 4% for Treasuries. Still, bearish calls from big asset managers are a reminder that caution persists. Stocks got cheaper but they’re far from an obvious bargain. At 17.9 times earnings, its current P/E is still the highest of any bear-market lows since the 1950s. On a 12-month forward P/E basis, the ~16 times multiple is way above the 12.81 average seen during the six bear markets since the 1990s.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the credibility of the central bank’s inflation target was threatened by hot price pressures. “This is a serious problem and we need to be sure we respond to it appropriately,” Bullard told an economic conference in London Tuesday. “We have increased the policy rate substantially this year and more increases are indicated,” in the Fed’s latest forecasts.
Bottom-line: New Home Sales Almost Literally Too Good to Be True.
The 10 a.m. data suggest little relief from the pressure of monetary tightening. New home sales posted an almost literally unbelievable 28.8% monthly rise to 685k, a 7 standard deviation (!) beat of the forecast 500k.
The 10 a.m. data suggest little relief from the pressure of monetary tightening. New home sales posted an almost literally unbelievable 28.8% monthly rise to 685k, a 7 standard deviation (!) beat of the forecast 500k.
US stocks ended down after swinging as volatility showed little signs of fading. The S&P 500 was slightly lower, having given up a 1.7% advance, thanks to more hawkish Fed rhetoric. The global bond selloff extended, with 10-year Treasury yields up near 3.98% and 30-years up almost 9 bps around 3.85%.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행 인사들은 인플레이션 통제를 위해 지금까지와 같은 길을 걸을 것이란 확고한 메시지를 줌. 비록 공급충격과 기타 투입 요소 압력이 완화되며 인플레이션 강도 완화를 보였지만, 절대적 수준에서는 놀라울 정도로 높은 인플레이션이 깨어진 자산가격 속에서 정책을 선회하길 바라는 투자자들을 실망케하고 있음.
The message was loud and clear overnight from a slew of Fed speakers -- interest rates are going to go higher despite crashing asset prices and a growing chorus of concern that central banks worldwide are going too far, too fast. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard maintained his anti-inflation rage and warned that US policymakers’ credibility was on the line. So much for investor hopes that central banks would pivot to a slower pace of tightening because of nascent signs that supply shocks and other cost pressures are easing. After all, while the inflation data pulse has eased, it remains alarmingly high both in absolute terms and relative to expectations that it should be cooling. Citigroup’s Inflation Surprise Index has come tumbling down from its March 2022 peak of just above 120 to a mere 67. However, that’s still 20 points above the previous record set in August 2008 and way higher than the average for the first 20 years of this century which was a bit below zero.
The message was loud and clear overnight from a slew of Fed speakers -- interest rates are going to go higher despite crashing asset prices and a growing chorus of concern that central banks worldwide are going too far, too fast. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard maintained his anti-inflation rage and warned that US policymakers’ credibility was on the line. So much for investor hopes that central banks would pivot to a slower pace of tightening because of nascent signs that supply shocks and other cost pressures are easing. After all, while the inflation data pulse has eased, it remains alarmingly high both in absolute terms and relative to expectations that it should be cooling. Citigroup’s Inflation Surprise Index has come tumbling down from its March 2022 peak of just above 120 to a mere 67. However, that’s still 20 points above the previous record set in August 2008 and way higher than the average for the first 20 years of this century which was a bit below zero.