Bottom-line: 5거래일을 연일 하락한 뒤 주식시장은 첫 반등을 모색하고 있음. 일반적으로 월말에는 자산군 비중에 대한 평균회귀 성격의 재분배가 이뤄지는데 의한 도움도 있음. 다만, 대형 운용사 매니저들이 여전히 신중한 입장을 고수하고 있으며, 1990년대 이후 6번의 약세장에서 저점을 기록한 12개월 선행 주가수익비율 평균 12.81배보다 훨씬 높은 16배라는 것도 주식이 완전한 할인에 들어섰다 말하기 어려운 점임.
US futures are staging a bounce this morning for the first time in six days as global bond yields take a breather. The cross-asset picture looks conducive to a rebound. The pound seems to have stabilized for now and the dollar is weaker. In the final trading days of the month, mean reversion typically kicks in as investors rebalance portfolios. Particularly as stocks have sold off more than bonds -- down nearly 8% in September as of yesterday’s close vs 4% for Treasuries. Still, bearish calls from big asset managers are a reminder that caution persists. Stocks got cheaper but they’re far from an obvious bargain. At 17.9 times earnings, its current P/E is still the highest of any bear-market lows since the 1950s. On a 12-month forward P/E basis, the ~16 times multiple is way above the 12.81 average seen during the six bear markets since the 1990s.
US futures are staging a bounce this morning for the first time in six days as global bond yields take a breather. The cross-asset picture looks conducive to a rebound. The pound seems to have stabilized for now and the dollar is weaker. In the final trading days of the month, mean reversion typically kicks in as investors rebalance portfolios. Particularly as stocks have sold off more than bonds -- down nearly 8% in September as of yesterday’s close vs 4% for Treasuries. Still, bearish calls from big asset managers are a reminder that caution persists. Stocks got cheaper but they’re far from an obvious bargain. At 17.9 times earnings, its current P/E is still the highest of any bear-market lows since the 1950s. On a 12-month forward P/E basis, the ~16 times multiple is way above the 12.81 average seen during the six bear markets since the 1990s.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the credibility of the central bank’s inflation target was threatened by hot price pressures. “This is a serious problem and we need to be sure we respond to it appropriately,” Bullard told an economic conference in London Tuesday. “We have increased the policy rate substantially this year and more increases are indicated,” in the Fed’s latest forecasts.
Bottom-line: New Home Sales Almost Literally Too Good to Be True.
The 10 a.m. data suggest little relief from the pressure of monetary tightening. New home sales posted an almost literally unbelievable 28.8% monthly rise to 685k, a 7 standard deviation (!) beat of the forecast 500k.
The 10 a.m. data suggest little relief from the pressure of monetary tightening. New home sales posted an almost literally unbelievable 28.8% monthly rise to 685k, a 7 standard deviation (!) beat of the forecast 500k.
US stocks ended down after swinging as volatility showed little signs of fading. The S&P 500 was slightly lower, having given up a 1.7% advance, thanks to more hawkish Fed rhetoric. The global bond selloff extended, with 10-year Treasury yields up near 3.98% and 30-years up almost 9 bps around 3.85%.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행 인사들은 인플레이션 통제를 위해 지금까지와 같은 길을 걸을 것이란 확고한 메시지를 줌. 비록 공급충격과 기타 투입 요소 압력이 완화되며 인플레이션 강도 완화를 보였지만, 절대적 수준에서는 놀라울 정도로 높은 인플레이션이 깨어진 자산가격 속에서 정책을 선회하길 바라는 투자자들을 실망케하고 있음.
The message was loud and clear overnight from a slew of Fed speakers -- interest rates are going to go higher despite crashing asset prices and a growing chorus of concern that central banks worldwide are going too far, too fast. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard maintained his anti-inflation rage and warned that US policymakers’ credibility was on the line. So much for investor hopes that central banks would pivot to a slower pace of tightening because of nascent signs that supply shocks and other cost pressures are easing. After all, while the inflation data pulse has eased, it remains alarmingly high both in absolute terms and relative to expectations that it should be cooling. Citigroup’s Inflation Surprise Index has come tumbling down from its March 2022 peak of just above 120 to a mere 67. However, that’s still 20 points above the previous record set in August 2008 and way higher than the average for the first 20 years of this century which was a bit below zero.
The message was loud and clear overnight from a slew of Fed speakers -- interest rates are going to go higher despite crashing asset prices and a growing chorus of concern that central banks worldwide are going too far, too fast. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard maintained his anti-inflation rage and warned that US policymakers’ credibility was on the line. So much for investor hopes that central banks would pivot to a slower pace of tightening because of nascent signs that supply shocks and other cost pressures are easing. After all, while the inflation data pulse has eased, it remains alarmingly high both in absolute terms and relative to expectations that it should be cooling. Citigroup’s Inflation Surprise Index has come tumbling down from its March 2022 peak of just above 120 to a mere 67. However, that’s still 20 points above the previous record set in August 2008 and way higher than the average for the first 20 years of this century which was a bit below zero.
Bottom-line: 2010년 이후 처음으로 미국 국채 10년물 수익률이 4%를 넘어섬.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury touched 4% for the first time since 2010. Rates on similar dated Australia bonds reached a three-month high while Japan’s benchmark yield closed at the upper limit of the central bank’s target band on Tuesday. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to tame inflation, with James Bullard underscoring the need for tighter monetary policy.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury touched 4% for the first time since 2010. Rates on similar dated Australia bonds reached a three-month high while Japan’s benchmark yield closed at the upper limit of the central bank’s target band on Tuesday. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to tame inflation, with James Bullard underscoring the need for tighter monetary policy.
Bottom-line: 격변하는 주식 및 채권 시장 지원에 한국이 먼저 행동함. 주가지수는 낙폭을 줄였고 3년물 국채선물은 양으로 전환함. 다만, 전세계적으로 상승 중인 채권 수익률 및 인플레이션의 지배 하에 있으므로 큰 그림을 바꾸기엔 부족함.
Circuit Breakers May Get Fired Up to Support Asia, Korea First. South Korea is reported to be preparing to activate a stock stabilization fund. The Kospi index is trimming losses, while 3-year bond futures have flipped positive after an early swoon following news that the nation will conduct an emergency bond buyback. This is well timed to catch traders running short exposure, but it may not change the big picture dominated by rising global yields and inflation.
Circuit Breakers May Get Fired Up to Support Asia, Korea First. South Korea is reported to be preparing to activate a stock stabilization fund. The Kospi index is trimming losses, while 3-year bond futures have flipped positive after an early swoon following news that the nation will conduct an emergency bond buyback. This is well timed to catch traders running short exposure, but it may not change the big picture dominated by rising global yields and inflation.
Bottom-line: 미국 국채 10년물 수익률이 올 한 해 동안 250bp 상승하며, 1972년 이후 최대폭인 -14%의 자본손실을 기록함.
The benchmark US 10-year yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.015% Wednesday. It has now climbed around 250 basis points in 2022. Treasuries are headed for their biggest annual loss since least 1973, with a Bloomberg gauge of the debt slumping 14% this year.
The benchmark US 10-year yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.015% Wednesday. It has now climbed around 250 basis points in 2022. Treasuries are headed for their biggest annual loss since least 1973, with a Bloomberg gauge of the debt slumping 14% this year.
Bottom-line: 유럽에 투자되는 자금의 6%에 해당하는 980억 달러가 올해 유출 되면서 2020년 대확산 시기를 넘어 2011년~2012년 유로존 부채위기 수준에 도달함. 다만, 6%에 해당하는 유출이 발생한 뒤 12개월 뒤 유럽 주가지수는 16% 상승했음.
Investors are abandoning European stocks at levels last seen during the euro zone debt crisis, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists, adding that this could represent a contrarian signal to buy. European equity funds are on track for eight straight months of outflows totaling $98 billion, or 6% of assets under management, the bank said in a note citing EPFR Global data. On that basis, cumulative redemptions are now worse than the Covid-led selloff in 2020 and are comparable to the 2011-12 euro zone crisis, strategists including David Groman and Beata Manthey said. In previous cases when outflows hit 6%, the MSCI Europe Index subsequently gained 16% over the next 12 months, they wrote -- noting that the global financial crisis was an exception when selling continued.
Investors are abandoning European stocks at levels last seen during the euro zone debt crisis, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists, adding that this could represent a contrarian signal to buy. European equity funds are on track for eight straight months of outflows totaling $98 billion, or 6% of assets under management, the bank said in a note citing EPFR Global data. On that basis, cumulative redemptions are now worse than the Covid-led selloff in 2020 and are comparable to the 2011-12 euro zone crisis, strategists including David Groman and Beata Manthey said. In previous cases when outflows hit 6%, the MSCI Europe Index subsequently gained 16% over the next 12 months, they wrote -- noting that the global financial crisis was an exception when selling continued.
시장의 온도: 영국 중앙은행의 비정기 회의를 통한 금리인상이 아닌 채권 매입이 'Pivot'의 단서라 해석하며 반등.
The Bank of England said it would step into the market to buy long-dated government bonds starting today to help restore order to the market. “The purpose of these purchases will be to restore orderly market conditions,” the BOE said in a statement. “The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome.”. The central bank also said it would postpone the beginning of its quantitative tightening bond sales, due to begin next week. UK bonds surged after announcement, with the yield on 30-year gilts plummeting 24 basis points to 4.75%. The yield has increase from 3.45% at the start of last week.
The Bank of England said it would step into the market to buy long-dated government bonds starting today to help restore order to the market. “The purpose of these purchases will be to restore orderly market conditions,” the BOE said in a statement. “The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome.”. The central bank also said it would postpone the beginning of its quantitative tightening bond sales, due to begin next week. UK bonds surged after announcement, with the yield on 30-year gilts plummeting 24 basis points to 4.75%. The yield has increase from 3.45% at the start of last week.
Bottom-line: 파운드화가 달러와 등가에 거래될 것이란 지난 주말의 이야기는 이제 시작에 불과할 수 있음. 중앙은행이 일종의 수익률 곡선 통제를 시작함에 따라 1.0850에 거래되던 파운드가 급락하며 일 중 손절 매매가 쏟아짐. 중앙은행의 행동과 반대로 거시적 환경은 영국 국채수익률이 현재보다 더 높아야 하는 압박을 가지고 있어 파운드화에 악영향을 줄 것임.
Street talk about cable parity has gained traction since Friday. That may be just the beginning. The BOE’s announcement that it will buy long-dated government bonds sent the pound toward the $1.0850 level on a knee-jerk reaction, triggering intraday stop losses on the way. Cable now trades lower at ~$1.071. If the BOE goes for some sort of yield-curve control, then the pound will face even more pressure as the macro backdrop calls for higher gilt yields. The BOE’s intent to unwind the purchases when market conditions permit also embeds some wishful thinking.
Street talk about cable parity has gained traction since Friday. That may be just the beginning. The BOE’s announcement that it will buy long-dated government bonds sent the pound toward the $1.0850 level on a knee-jerk reaction, triggering intraday stop losses on the way. Cable now trades lower at ~$1.071. If the BOE goes for some sort of yield-curve control, then the pound will face even more pressure as the macro backdrop calls for higher gilt yields. The BOE’s intent to unwind the purchases when market conditions permit also embeds some wishful thinking.
Market Implication: 외환 시장에서 형성 된 내재 이자율을 보면 중앙은행이 얼마나 높게 금리를 인상해야 한다고 보는지 의중을 알 수 있으며, 금일 시행 된 것처럼 국채 수익률 곡선을 통제하는 효과를 내면 시장에서 필요하다고 생각하는 조치와 완전히 반대로 가는 것임.
Pound Traders Still See Higher BOE Interest Rates Needed. Now, if you know what the market expects for dollar yields and you know what the forward points are, you can work out what the market is pricing in for sterling yields. Here’s what that looks like.
Pound Traders Still See Higher BOE Interest Rates Needed. Now, if you know what the market expects for dollar yields and you know what the forward points are, you can work out what the market is pricing in for sterling yields. Here’s what that looks like.