Bottom-line: 2010년 이후 처음으로 미국 국채 10년물 수익률이 4%를 넘어섬.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury touched 4% for the first time since 2010. Rates on similar dated Australia bonds reached a three-month high while Japan’s benchmark yield closed at the upper limit of the central bank’s target band on Tuesday. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to tame inflation, with James Bullard underscoring the need for tighter monetary policy.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury touched 4% for the first time since 2010. Rates on similar dated Australia bonds reached a three-month high while Japan’s benchmark yield closed at the upper limit of the central bank’s target band on Tuesday. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to tame inflation, with James Bullard underscoring the need for tighter monetary policy.
Bottom-line: 격변하는 주식 및 채권 시장 지원에 한국이 먼저 행동함. 주가지수는 낙폭을 줄였고 3년물 국채선물은 양으로 전환함. 다만, 전세계적으로 상승 중인 채권 수익률 및 인플레이션의 지배 하에 있으므로 큰 그림을 바꾸기엔 부족함.
Circuit Breakers May Get Fired Up to Support Asia, Korea First. South Korea is reported to be preparing to activate a stock stabilization fund. The Kospi index is trimming losses, while 3-year bond futures have flipped positive after an early swoon following news that the nation will conduct an emergency bond buyback. This is well timed to catch traders running short exposure, but it may not change the big picture dominated by rising global yields and inflation.
Circuit Breakers May Get Fired Up to Support Asia, Korea First. South Korea is reported to be preparing to activate a stock stabilization fund. The Kospi index is trimming losses, while 3-year bond futures have flipped positive after an early swoon following news that the nation will conduct an emergency bond buyback. This is well timed to catch traders running short exposure, but it may not change the big picture dominated by rising global yields and inflation.
Bottom-line: 미국 국채 10년물 수익률이 올 한 해 동안 250bp 상승하며, 1972년 이후 최대폭인 -14%의 자본손실을 기록함.
The benchmark US 10-year yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.015% Wednesday. It has now climbed around 250 basis points in 2022. Treasuries are headed for their biggest annual loss since least 1973, with a Bloomberg gauge of the debt slumping 14% this year.
The benchmark US 10-year yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.015% Wednesday. It has now climbed around 250 basis points in 2022. Treasuries are headed for their biggest annual loss since least 1973, with a Bloomberg gauge of the debt slumping 14% this year.
Bottom-line: 유럽에 투자되는 자금의 6%에 해당하는 980억 달러가 올해 유출 되면서 2020년 대확산 시기를 넘어 2011년~2012년 유로존 부채위기 수준에 도달함. 다만, 6%에 해당하는 유출이 발생한 뒤 12개월 뒤 유럽 주가지수는 16% 상승했음.
Investors are abandoning European stocks at levels last seen during the euro zone debt crisis, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists, adding that this could represent a contrarian signal to buy. European equity funds are on track for eight straight months of outflows totaling $98 billion, or 6% of assets under management, the bank said in a note citing EPFR Global data. On that basis, cumulative redemptions are now worse than the Covid-led selloff in 2020 and are comparable to the 2011-12 euro zone crisis, strategists including David Groman and Beata Manthey said. In previous cases when outflows hit 6%, the MSCI Europe Index subsequently gained 16% over the next 12 months, they wrote -- noting that the global financial crisis was an exception when selling continued.
Investors are abandoning European stocks at levels last seen during the euro zone debt crisis, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists, adding that this could represent a contrarian signal to buy. European equity funds are on track for eight straight months of outflows totaling $98 billion, or 6% of assets under management, the bank said in a note citing EPFR Global data. On that basis, cumulative redemptions are now worse than the Covid-led selloff in 2020 and are comparable to the 2011-12 euro zone crisis, strategists including David Groman and Beata Manthey said. In previous cases when outflows hit 6%, the MSCI Europe Index subsequently gained 16% over the next 12 months, they wrote -- noting that the global financial crisis was an exception when selling continued.
시장의 온도: 영국 중앙은행의 비정기 회의를 통한 금리인상이 아닌 채권 매입이 'Pivot'의 단서라 해석하며 반등.
The Bank of England said it would step into the market to buy long-dated government bonds starting today to help restore order to the market. “The purpose of these purchases will be to restore orderly market conditions,” the BOE said in a statement. “The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome.”. The central bank also said it would postpone the beginning of its quantitative tightening bond sales, due to begin next week. UK bonds surged after announcement, with the yield on 30-year gilts plummeting 24 basis points to 4.75%. The yield has increase from 3.45% at the start of last week.
The Bank of England said it would step into the market to buy long-dated government bonds starting today to help restore order to the market. “The purpose of these purchases will be to restore orderly market conditions,” the BOE said in a statement. “The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome.”. The central bank also said it would postpone the beginning of its quantitative tightening bond sales, due to begin next week. UK bonds surged after announcement, with the yield on 30-year gilts plummeting 24 basis points to 4.75%. The yield has increase from 3.45% at the start of last week.
Bottom-line: 파운드화가 달러와 등가에 거래될 것이란 지난 주말의 이야기는 이제 시작에 불과할 수 있음. 중앙은행이 일종의 수익률 곡선 통제를 시작함에 따라 1.0850에 거래되던 파운드가 급락하며 일 중 손절 매매가 쏟아짐. 중앙은행의 행동과 반대로 거시적 환경은 영국 국채수익률이 현재보다 더 높아야 하는 압박을 가지고 있어 파운드화에 악영향을 줄 것임.
Street talk about cable parity has gained traction since Friday. That may be just the beginning. The BOE’s announcement that it will buy long-dated government bonds sent the pound toward the $1.0850 level on a knee-jerk reaction, triggering intraday stop losses on the way. Cable now trades lower at ~$1.071. If the BOE goes for some sort of yield-curve control, then the pound will face even more pressure as the macro backdrop calls for higher gilt yields. The BOE’s intent to unwind the purchases when market conditions permit also embeds some wishful thinking.
Street talk about cable parity has gained traction since Friday. That may be just the beginning. The BOE’s announcement that it will buy long-dated government bonds sent the pound toward the $1.0850 level on a knee-jerk reaction, triggering intraday stop losses on the way. Cable now trades lower at ~$1.071. If the BOE goes for some sort of yield-curve control, then the pound will face even more pressure as the macro backdrop calls for higher gilt yields. The BOE’s intent to unwind the purchases when market conditions permit also embeds some wishful thinking.
Market Implication: 외환 시장에서 형성 된 내재 이자율을 보면 중앙은행이 얼마나 높게 금리를 인상해야 한다고 보는지 의중을 알 수 있으며, 금일 시행 된 것처럼 국채 수익률 곡선을 통제하는 효과를 내면 시장에서 필요하다고 생각하는 조치와 완전히 반대로 가는 것임.
Pound Traders Still See Higher BOE Interest Rates Needed. Now, if you know what the market expects for dollar yields and you know what the forward points are, you can work out what the market is pricing in for sterling yields. Here’s what that looks like.
Pound Traders Still See Higher BOE Interest Rates Needed. Now, if you know what the market expects for dollar yields and you know what the forward points are, you can work out what the market is pricing in for sterling yields. Here’s what that looks like.
Bottom-line: 중국 중앙은행은 2008년 이후 달러 대비 최저가치로 떨어진 위안화를 대상으로 방향성 투기를 하는 주체들이 장기적으로 돈을 잃게 될 것이라 경고함. 그들은 외부 충격을 방어하고 시장의 기대치를 조절할 수 있는 풍부한 경험이 있다고 강조함.
China’s central bank stepped up its defense of the falling yuan with a strongly-worded statement to warn against speculation, after the currency dropped to its lowest versus the dollar since 2008. “Do not bet on one-way appreciation or depreciation of the yuan, as losses will definitely be incurred in the long term,” the People’s Bank of China said in the statement released Wednesday. Key market participants need to “voluntarily safeguard the stability of the market, and be firm when they need to iron out big rallies or declines in the exchange rate.". The central bank added that it has “plenty of experience” to fend off external shocks and effectively guide market expectations. The statement referred to corporates making speculative bets on the exchange rates and financial institutions that were violating policies.
China’s central bank stepped up its defense of the falling yuan with a strongly-worded statement to warn against speculation, after the currency dropped to its lowest versus the dollar since 2008. “Do not bet on one-way appreciation or depreciation of the yuan, as losses will definitely be incurred in the long term,” the People’s Bank of China said in the statement released Wednesday. Key market participants need to “voluntarily safeguard the stability of the market, and be firm when they need to iron out big rallies or declines in the exchange rate.". The central bank added that it has “plenty of experience” to fend off external shocks and effectively guide market expectations. The statement referred to corporates making speculative bets on the exchange rates and financial institutions that were violating policies.
Market Implication: 영국의 정책 선회 및 유럽의 조치에 대해 채권 투자자들은 매도의 기회로 활용할 것이라는 해석임. 유럽의 조치와 미국의 경제 위기감이 미국 중앙은행도 선회하도록 할 것이란 기대를 심어줄 수 있지만, 이는 이미 6월에 겪은 일임. 투자자들은 이제 이 시점에서 중앙은행이 선회하면 인플레이션이 더 높아진다는 사실을 알고 있음. 그리고 이는 채권 가격을 하락하게 만드는 레시피라고 생각함.
Price action in UK and European rates remains the relevant driver for US fixed income. Treasury investors are likely to quietly continue selling strength despite today’s pivot from the Bank of England. Treasuries have rallied in response to the Bank of England’s decision to announce unlimited and immediate purchases of long-dated bonds amid fears of a crash in gilts. And there appears to be growing sentiment that the US economy is about to roll over, which conjures expectation that this might quench Fed hawkishness and slow rate hikes. May 2023 Fed Funds futures have rallied more than 35 bps this week. The contract now trades at a ~4.40% versus 4.53% after the Sept FOMC meeting. This suggests that investors are betting that the Fed will have to cut its tightening campaign short due to economic weakness. This same trade came and went in June. And investors are aware that BOE fiscal dominance and or the Fed halting rate hikes will result in higher inflation. And that’s a recipe for lower bond prices.
Price action in UK and European rates remains the relevant driver for US fixed income. Treasury investors are likely to quietly continue selling strength despite today’s pivot from the Bank of England. Treasuries have rallied in response to the Bank of England’s decision to announce unlimited and immediate purchases of long-dated bonds amid fears of a crash in gilts. And there appears to be growing sentiment that the US economy is about to roll over, which conjures expectation that this might quench Fed hawkishness and slow rate hikes. May 2023 Fed Funds futures have rallied more than 35 bps this week. The contract now trades at a ~4.40% versus 4.53% after the Sept FOMC meeting. This suggests that investors are betting that the Fed will have to cut its tightening campaign short due to economic weakness. This same trade came and went in June. And investors are aware that BOE fiscal dominance and or the Fed halting rate hikes will result in higher inflation. And that’s a recipe for lower bond prices.
Selloff respite. US stocks and bonds rallied on the BOE's intervention. The S&P 500 rose 2%, posting its first advance in seven sessions. Treasuries jumped, pushing 10-year yields down 21 bps to 3.73% after briefly breaching 4.00%.
Market Implication: 무역이 발달하며 통화 강세가 상품 수출 경쟁력 악화로 연결, 무역수지 적자로 다시 통화 약세로 돌아가는 순환 구조를 이젠 달리 생각해야 한다는 의미를 주고 있음. 1980년대와 달리 수출과 수급 시장이 환율 변동에 보다 세련 된 관리를 하고 있기 때문이며, 고도로 상품화 된 자동차 시장이 달러 대비 타국 통화 절하폭이 상당함에도 사업 변동성이 적음을 보여주는 사례로 들고 있음.
Dollar bulls can take comfort in the fact that the ballooning trade deficit won’t be the greenback’s Achilles heel. That is not really what Wednesday’s data shows. The advanced goods trade deficit shrunk for a fifth month, falling to its lowest level in over a year even as the Bloomberg dollar index climbed to a record. A large portion of the improvement is due to slowing exports to struggling economies overseas and fewer consumer goods imports. But the US trade balance for industrial supplies has swung to a record $7.6 billion surplus. The highly commoditisized auto industry is also doing well even as the currencies of overseas competitors sink. The impact of a higher dollar and slumping yuan may eventually show up in US trade figures. But the global economy has shifted dramatically in the last decade. Export and sourcing markets have changed and exchange rates of major economies, unlike the 1980s, are more managed.
Dollar bulls can take comfort in the fact that the ballooning trade deficit won’t be the greenback’s Achilles heel. That is not really what Wednesday’s data shows. The advanced goods trade deficit shrunk for a fifth month, falling to its lowest level in over a year even as the Bloomberg dollar index climbed to a record. A large portion of the improvement is due to slowing exports to struggling economies overseas and fewer consumer goods imports. But the US trade balance for industrial supplies has swung to a record $7.6 billion surplus. The highly commoditisized auto industry is also doing well even as the currencies of overseas competitors sink. The impact of a higher dollar and slumping yuan may eventually show up in US trade figures. But the global economy has shifted dramatically in the last decade. Export and sourcing markets have changed and exchange rates of major economies, unlike the 1980s, are more managed.
Bottom-line: 시타델의 창업자 켄 그리핀은 다른 연사들에 비해 덜 비관적인 발언을 했음. 4분기 실질임금이 오히려 상승할 것이며, 미국의 소비자들의 강건한 소비가 경제 전반에 강한 순풍을 만들어 준다고 함. 그럼에도 불구 경기침체의 발생 가능성에 대해 면밀히 관찰하고 있다고 함. 전통적인 주식 60%, 채권 40% 포트폴리오 투자는 지금과 같은 적기가 없다고 봤음.
Citadel’s billionaire founder, Ken Griffin, said the US equity market is showing resilience thanks to a healthy labor market and strong consumer confidence. Speaking on Wednesday at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference in New York, Griffin said Citadel is “very focused on the possibility of a recession,” but he struck a less bearish tone than fellow speakers such as Duquesne Family Office founder Stan Druckenmiller, who predicted that one will happen next year. “The US economy is still strong for people who are going to work every day. In fact I think we’re looking at real wage growth in Q4 this year,” Griffin said. Consumers are spending more on things like airlines and electronics, which creates “a real powerful tailwind” to the overall economy, he said. “So the forward trajectory on a number of key fronts looks somewhat better domestically, assuming nothing goes totally off the rails.”. The Citadel founder said he thinks the typical 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds “is much better today than at any point in recent time.”.
Citadel’s billionaire founder, Ken Griffin, said the US equity market is showing resilience thanks to a healthy labor market and strong consumer confidence. Speaking on Wednesday at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference in New York, Griffin said Citadel is “very focused on the possibility of a recession,” but he struck a less bearish tone than fellow speakers such as Duquesne Family Office founder Stan Druckenmiller, who predicted that one will happen next year. “The US economy is still strong for people who are going to work every day. In fact I think we’re looking at real wage growth in Q4 this year,” Griffin said. Consumers are spending more on things like airlines and electronics, which creates “a real powerful tailwind” to the overall economy, he said. “So the forward trajectory on a number of key fronts looks somewhat better domestically, assuming nothing goes totally off the rails.”. The Citadel founder said he thinks the typical 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds “is much better today than at any point in recent time.”.