Bottom-line: 중국 중앙은행은 2008년 이후 달러 대비 최저가치로 떨어진 위안화를 대상으로 방향성 투기를 하는 주체들이 장기적으로 돈을 잃게 될 것이라 경고함. 그들은 외부 충격을 방어하고 시장의 기대치를 조절할 수 있는 풍부한 경험이 있다고 강조함.
China’s central bank stepped up its defense of the falling yuan with a strongly-worded statement to warn against speculation, after the currency dropped to its lowest versus the dollar since 2008. “Do not bet on one-way appreciation or depreciation of the yuan, as losses will definitely be incurred in the long term,” the People’s Bank of China said in the statement released Wednesday. Key market participants need to “voluntarily safeguard the stability of the market, and be firm when they need to iron out big rallies or declines in the exchange rate.". The central bank added that it has “plenty of experience” to fend off external shocks and effectively guide market expectations. The statement referred to corporates making speculative bets on the exchange rates and financial institutions that were violating policies.
China’s central bank stepped up its defense of the falling yuan with a strongly-worded statement to warn against speculation, after the currency dropped to its lowest versus the dollar since 2008. “Do not bet on one-way appreciation or depreciation of the yuan, as losses will definitely be incurred in the long term,” the People’s Bank of China said in the statement released Wednesday. Key market participants need to “voluntarily safeguard the stability of the market, and be firm when they need to iron out big rallies or declines in the exchange rate.". The central bank added that it has “plenty of experience” to fend off external shocks and effectively guide market expectations. The statement referred to corporates making speculative bets on the exchange rates and financial institutions that were violating policies.
Market Implication: 영국의 정책 선회 및 유럽의 조치에 대해 채권 투자자들은 매도의 기회로 활용할 것이라는 해석임. 유럽의 조치와 미국의 경제 위기감이 미국 중앙은행도 선회하도록 할 것이란 기대를 심어줄 수 있지만, 이는 이미 6월에 겪은 일임. 투자자들은 이제 이 시점에서 중앙은행이 선회하면 인플레이션이 더 높아진다는 사실을 알고 있음. 그리고 이는 채권 가격을 하락하게 만드는 레시피라고 생각함.
Price action in UK and European rates remains the relevant driver for US fixed income. Treasury investors are likely to quietly continue selling strength despite today’s pivot from the Bank of England. Treasuries have rallied in response to the Bank of England’s decision to announce unlimited and immediate purchases of long-dated bonds amid fears of a crash in gilts. And there appears to be growing sentiment that the US economy is about to roll over, which conjures expectation that this might quench Fed hawkishness and slow rate hikes. May 2023 Fed Funds futures have rallied more than 35 bps this week. The contract now trades at a ~4.40% versus 4.53% after the Sept FOMC meeting. This suggests that investors are betting that the Fed will have to cut its tightening campaign short due to economic weakness. This same trade came and went in June. And investors are aware that BOE fiscal dominance and or the Fed halting rate hikes will result in higher inflation. And that’s a recipe for lower bond prices.
Price action in UK and European rates remains the relevant driver for US fixed income. Treasury investors are likely to quietly continue selling strength despite today’s pivot from the Bank of England. Treasuries have rallied in response to the Bank of England’s decision to announce unlimited and immediate purchases of long-dated bonds amid fears of a crash in gilts. And there appears to be growing sentiment that the US economy is about to roll over, which conjures expectation that this might quench Fed hawkishness and slow rate hikes. May 2023 Fed Funds futures have rallied more than 35 bps this week. The contract now trades at a ~4.40% versus 4.53% after the Sept FOMC meeting. This suggests that investors are betting that the Fed will have to cut its tightening campaign short due to economic weakness. This same trade came and went in June. And investors are aware that BOE fiscal dominance and or the Fed halting rate hikes will result in higher inflation. And that’s a recipe for lower bond prices.
Selloff respite. US stocks and bonds rallied on the BOE's intervention. The S&P 500 rose 2%, posting its first advance in seven sessions. Treasuries jumped, pushing 10-year yields down 21 bps to 3.73% after briefly breaching 4.00%.
Market Implication: 무역이 발달하며 통화 강세가 상품 수출 경쟁력 악화로 연결, 무역수지 적자로 다시 통화 약세로 돌아가는 순환 구조를 이젠 달리 생각해야 한다는 의미를 주고 있음. 1980년대와 달리 수출과 수급 시장이 환율 변동에 보다 세련 된 관리를 하고 있기 때문이며, 고도로 상품화 된 자동차 시장이 달러 대비 타국 통화 절하폭이 상당함에도 사업 변동성이 적음을 보여주는 사례로 들고 있음.
Dollar bulls can take comfort in the fact that the ballooning trade deficit won’t be the greenback’s Achilles heel. That is not really what Wednesday’s data shows. The advanced goods trade deficit shrunk for a fifth month, falling to its lowest level in over a year even as the Bloomberg dollar index climbed to a record. A large portion of the improvement is due to slowing exports to struggling economies overseas and fewer consumer goods imports. But the US trade balance for industrial supplies has swung to a record $7.6 billion surplus. The highly commoditisized auto industry is also doing well even as the currencies of overseas competitors sink. The impact of a higher dollar and slumping yuan may eventually show up in US trade figures. But the global economy has shifted dramatically in the last decade. Export and sourcing markets have changed and exchange rates of major economies, unlike the 1980s, are more managed.
Dollar bulls can take comfort in the fact that the ballooning trade deficit won’t be the greenback’s Achilles heel. That is not really what Wednesday’s data shows. The advanced goods trade deficit shrunk for a fifth month, falling to its lowest level in over a year even as the Bloomberg dollar index climbed to a record. A large portion of the improvement is due to slowing exports to struggling economies overseas and fewer consumer goods imports. But the US trade balance for industrial supplies has swung to a record $7.6 billion surplus. The highly commoditisized auto industry is also doing well even as the currencies of overseas competitors sink. The impact of a higher dollar and slumping yuan may eventually show up in US trade figures. But the global economy has shifted dramatically in the last decade. Export and sourcing markets have changed and exchange rates of major economies, unlike the 1980s, are more managed.
Bottom-line: 시타델의 창업자 켄 그리핀은 다른 연사들에 비해 덜 비관적인 발언을 했음. 4분기 실질임금이 오히려 상승할 것이며, 미국의 소비자들의 강건한 소비가 경제 전반에 강한 순풍을 만들어 준다고 함. 그럼에도 불구 경기침체의 발생 가능성에 대해 면밀히 관찰하고 있다고 함. 전통적인 주식 60%, 채권 40% 포트폴리오 투자는 지금과 같은 적기가 없다고 봤음.
Citadel’s billionaire founder, Ken Griffin, said the US equity market is showing resilience thanks to a healthy labor market and strong consumer confidence. Speaking on Wednesday at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference in New York, Griffin said Citadel is “very focused on the possibility of a recession,” but he struck a less bearish tone than fellow speakers such as Duquesne Family Office founder Stan Druckenmiller, who predicted that one will happen next year. “The US economy is still strong for people who are going to work every day. In fact I think we’re looking at real wage growth in Q4 this year,” Griffin said. Consumers are spending more on things like airlines and electronics, which creates “a real powerful tailwind” to the overall economy, he said. “So the forward trajectory on a number of key fronts looks somewhat better domestically, assuming nothing goes totally off the rails.”. The Citadel founder said he thinks the typical 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds “is much better today than at any point in recent time.”.
Citadel’s billionaire founder, Ken Griffin, said the US equity market is showing resilience thanks to a healthy labor market and strong consumer confidence. Speaking on Wednesday at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference in New York, Griffin said Citadel is “very focused on the possibility of a recession,” but he struck a less bearish tone than fellow speakers such as Duquesne Family Office founder Stan Druckenmiller, who predicted that one will happen next year. “The US economy is still strong for people who are going to work every day. In fact I think we’re looking at real wage growth in Q4 this year,” Griffin said. Consumers are spending more on things like airlines and electronics, which creates “a real powerful tailwind” to the overall economy, he said. “So the forward trajectory on a number of key fronts looks somewhat better domestically, assuming nothing goes totally off the rails.”. The Citadel founder said he thinks the typical 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds “is much better today than at any point in recent time.”.
Bottom-line: 세금 감면에 대한 의지를 고수하자 전일 채권 상승폭을 반납하기 시작함.
UK bonds extended losses after Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her new government’s giant fiscal package of unfunded tax cuts, which have tipped markets into chaos. The yield on the 10-year gilt rose as much as 21 basis points to 4.22% after she started speaking in a radio interview on Thursday morning. The move undid part of a massive rally triggered Wednesday, when the Bank of England announced it would start buying long-dated government bonds and delay reducing its gilts portfolio to help stabilize the market.
UK bonds extended losses after Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her new government’s giant fiscal package of unfunded tax cuts, which have tipped markets into chaos. The yield on the 10-year gilt rose as much as 21 basis points to 4.22% after she started speaking in a radio interview on Thursday morning. The move undid part of a massive rally triggered Wednesday, when the Bank of England announced it would start buying long-dated government bonds and delay reducing its gilts portfolio to help stabilize the market.
Bottom-line: 기업공개 제시가격 최상단에서 730억 달러 규모로 상장. 첫 거래를 시작한 포르쉐가 -2% 하락하는 독일 주가지수와 반대로 +2.9% 상승해 거래되고 있음. 이 시장에서 10년래 최대 규모의 기업공개며, 심지어 척박한 주식시장 환경 속임에도 기업에 대한 선호는 매우 긍정적임.
Porsche AG gained during its trading debut after parent Volkswagen AG set the final listing price for the sports-car maker at the upper limit in a bid to defy deep market upheaval. The manufacturer of the 911 rose as much 2.9% to €84.90 in Frankfurt -- against a decline of as much as 2% in Germany’s leading DAX index -- after slipping to its offer price of €82.50 apiece, the top end of VW’s initial range for the shares that valued the company at €75 billion ($73 billion). The listing, reaping €9.4 billion in proceeds for VW, is Europe’s largest initial public offering in a decade and contends with some of the most challenging market conditions in years. “Today is a historic day for Porsche,” Volkswagen and Porsche Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The first reaction of the market is very positive and that shows the potential of our company.”.
Porsche AG gained during its trading debut after parent Volkswagen AG set the final listing price for the sports-car maker at the upper limit in a bid to defy deep market upheaval. The manufacturer of the 911 rose as much 2.9% to €84.90 in Frankfurt -- against a decline of as much as 2% in Germany’s leading DAX index -- after slipping to its offer price of €82.50 apiece, the top end of VW’s initial range for the shares that valued the company at €75 billion ($73 billion). The listing, reaping €9.4 billion in proceeds for VW, is Europe’s largest initial public offering in a decade and contends with some of the most challenging market conditions in years. “Today is a historic day for Porsche,” Volkswagen and Porsche Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The first reaction of the market is very positive and that shows the potential of our company.”.
Bottom-line: 소프트뱅크는 손실을 기록 중인 비전 펀드 내 직원 500여명 중 150명을 해고할 계획으로 알려짐.
SoftBank Group Corp. has started laying off employees at its loss-making Vision Fund and is expected to cut at least 30% of its staff, according to people familiar with the matter. The Tokyo-based company began telling some workers of the reductions Thursday with at least 150 likely to be affected, said the people, asking not to be named as the information is not public. The Vision Fund unit, headquartered in London, had about 500 employees including staff at the Latin America fund. A spokesman for the Vision Fund didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
SoftBank Group Corp. has started laying off employees at its loss-making Vision Fund and is expected to cut at least 30% of its staff, according to people familiar with the matter. The Tokyo-based company began telling some workers of the reductions Thursday with at least 150 likely to be affected, said the people, asking not to be named as the information is not public. The Vision Fund unit, headquartered in London, had about 500 employees including staff at the Latin America fund. A spokesman for the Vision Fund didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Bottom-line: 가장 널리 사용되는 알루미늄은 러시아로부터의 신규 공급을 배제하는 논의가 있을 것으로 보도되며 일간 기준으로 가장 큰 폭 상승함.
Aluminum jumped by a record 8.5% on the London Metal Exchange after Bloomberg reported that the bourse plans to launch a discussion paper on a potential ban on new supplies of Russian metal. Prices for the most widely used base metal spiked to $2,305 a ton in the biggest intraday gain on record. Nickel and zinc rallied more than 4%, paring sharp losses for industrial metals so far this month. The exchange plans to initiate a discussion on whether and under what circumstances it should block new supplies of Russian metal from being delivered to its network of warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the plans aren’t yet public.
Aluminum jumped by a record 8.5% on the London Metal Exchange after Bloomberg reported that the bourse plans to launch a discussion paper on a potential ban on new supplies of Russian metal. Prices for the most widely used base metal spiked to $2,305 a ton in the biggest intraday gain on record. Nickel and zinc rallied more than 4%, paring sharp losses for industrial metals so far this month. The exchange plans to initiate a discussion on whether and under what circumstances it should block new supplies of Russian metal from being delivered to its network of warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the plans aren’t yet public.
German inflation reached double digits for the first time since the euro was introduced more than 20 years ago, surging more than anticipated after temporary government-relief measures ended and Europe’s energy crisis worsened.
Market Implication: 미국 주가지수가 3개 분기 연속 손실을 기록하며 불길한 징조를 보인단 이야기를 하고 있음. 이번 분기 8월 중순까지 +14%의 랠리는 근간있는 경제가 아닌 약세장에 베팅했던 매도자들의 포지션 회수 영향이 컸기 때문에 모두 반납했다는 것. 2008년 금융위기 당시는 6개 분기 동안 손실을 기록하며 -48%의 시가총액을 잃었음.
There’s yet another ominous sign for markets -- the S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-09, when global markets were roiled by a financial crisis. Though there isn’t necessarily a full-blown crisis yet, the big reversal in gains from the summer months has prompted financial market gurus at Morgan Stanley to Blackrock to flag one coming. Back in 2009, the global financial crisis saw the S&P 500 fall for six consecutive quarters, erasing 48% of its value. Between July-September, the US benchmark lost 1.8%, totaling for an year-to-date decline of 22%. The third quarter was off to a flying start with gains of 14% through mid August, but it faltered as the rally was partly driven by bearish investors covering their short positions, rather than on strong fundamentals.
There’s yet another ominous sign for markets -- the S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-09, when global markets were roiled by a financial crisis. Though there isn’t necessarily a full-blown crisis yet, the big reversal in gains from the summer months has prompted financial market gurus at Morgan Stanley to Blackrock to flag one coming. Back in 2009, the global financial crisis saw the S&P 500 fall for six consecutive quarters, erasing 48% of its value. Between July-September, the US benchmark lost 1.8%, totaling for an year-to-date decline of 22%. The third quarter was off to a flying start with gains of 14% through mid August, but it faltered as the rally was partly driven by bearish investors covering their short positions, rather than on strong fundamentals.
Bottom-line: 이제서야 시장 참여자들이 우리(중앙은행)의 의도(지속적인 금리인상)를 옳게 해석한다고 봄.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US central bankers expect additional policy tightening in coming months and that has been understood by investors. “If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum Thursday. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US central bankers expect additional policy tightening in coming months and that has been understood by investors. “If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum Thursday. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”