Bottom-line: 시타델의 창업자 켄 그리핀은 다른 연사들에 비해 덜 비관적인 발언을 했음. 4분기 실질임금이 오히려 상승할 것이며, 미국의 소비자들의 강건한 소비가 경제 전반에 강한 순풍을 만들어 준다고 함. 그럼에도 불구 경기침체의 발생 가능성에 대해 면밀히 관찰하고 있다고 함. 전통적인 주식 60%, 채권 40% 포트폴리오 투자는 지금과 같은 적기가 없다고 봤음.
Citadel’s billionaire founder, Ken Griffin, said the US equity market is showing resilience thanks to a healthy labor market and strong consumer confidence. Speaking on Wednesday at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference in New York, Griffin said Citadel is “very focused on the possibility of a recession,” but he struck a less bearish tone than fellow speakers such as Duquesne Family Office founder Stan Druckenmiller, who predicted that one will happen next year. “The US economy is still strong for people who are going to work every day. In fact I think we’re looking at real wage growth in Q4 this year,” Griffin said. Consumers are spending more on things like airlines and electronics, which creates “a real powerful tailwind” to the overall economy, he said. “So the forward trajectory on a number of key fronts looks somewhat better domestically, assuming nothing goes totally off the rails.”. The Citadel founder said he thinks the typical 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds “is much better today than at any point in recent time.”.
Citadel’s billionaire founder, Ken Griffin, said the US equity market is showing resilience thanks to a healthy labor market and strong consumer confidence. Speaking on Wednesday at the CNBC Delivering Alpha conference in New York, Griffin said Citadel is “very focused on the possibility of a recession,” but he struck a less bearish tone than fellow speakers such as Duquesne Family Office founder Stan Druckenmiller, who predicted that one will happen next year. “The US economy is still strong for people who are going to work every day. In fact I think we’re looking at real wage growth in Q4 this year,” Griffin said. Consumers are spending more on things like airlines and electronics, which creates “a real powerful tailwind” to the overall economy, he said. “So the forward trajectory on a number of key fronts looks somewhat better domestically, assuming nothing goes totally off the rails.”. The Citadel founder said he thinks the typical 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds “is much better today than at any point in recent time.”.
Bottom-line: 세금 감면에 대한 의지를 고수하자 전일 채권 상승폭을 반납하기 시작함.
UK bonds extended losses after Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her new government’s giant fiscal package of unfunded tax cuts, which have tipped markets into chaos. The yield on the 10-year gilt rose as much as 21 basis points to 4.22% after she started speaking in a radio interview on Thursday morning. The move undid part of a massive rally triggered Wednesday, when the Bank of England announced it would start buying long-dated government bonds and delay reducing its gilts portfolio to help stabilize the market.
UK bonds extended losses after Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her new government’s giant fiscal package of unfunded tax cuts, which have tipped markets into chaos. The yield on the 10-year gilt rose as much as 21 basis points to 4.22% after she started speaking in a radio interview on Thursday morning. The move undid part of a massive rally triggered Wednesday, when the Bank of England announced it would start buying long-dated government bonds and delay reducing its gilts portfolio to help stabilize the market.
Bottom-line: 기업공개 제시가격 최상단에서 730억 달러 규모로 상장. 첫 거래를 시작한 포르쉐가 -2% 하락하는 독일 주가지수와 반대로 +2.9% 상승해 거래되고 있음. 이 시장에서 10년래 최대 규모의 기업공개며, 심지어 척박한 주식시장 환경 속임에도 기업에 대한 선호는 매우 긍정적임.
Porsche AG gained during its trading debut after parent Volkswagen AG set the final listing price for the sports-car maker at the upper limit in a bid to defy deep market upheaval. The manufacturer of the 911 rose as much 2.9% to €84.90 in Frankfurt -- against a decline of as much as 2% in Germany’s leading DAX index -- after slipping to its offer price of €82.50 apiece, the top end of VW’s initial range for the shares that valued the company at €75 billion ($73 billion). The listing, reaping €9.4 billion in proceeds for VW, is Europe’s largest initial public offering in a decade and contends with some of the most challenging market conditions in years. “Today is a historic day for Porsche,” Volkswagen and Porsche Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The first reaction of the market is very positive and that shows the potential of our company.”.
Porsche AG gained during its trading debut after parent Volkswagen AG set the final listing price for the sports-car maker at the upper limit in a bid to defy deep market upheaval. The manufacturer of the 911 rose as much 2.9% to €84.90 in Frankfurt -- against a decline of as much as 2% in Germany’s leading DAX index -- after slipping to its offer price of €82.50 apiece, the top end of VW’s initial range for the shares that valued the company at €75 billion ($73 billion). The listing, reaping €9.4 billion in proceeds for VW, is Europe’s largest initial public offering in a decade and contends with some of the most challenging market conditions in years. “Today is a historic day for Porsche,” Volkswagen and Porsche Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The first reaction of the market is very positive and that shows the potential of our company.”.
Bottom-line: 소프트뱅크는 손실을 기록 중인 비전 펀드 내 직원 500여명 중 150명을 해고할 계획으로 알려짐.
SoftBank Group Corp. has started laying off employees at its loss-making Vision Fund and is expected to cut at least 30% of its staff, according to people familiar with the matter. The Tokyo-based company began telling some workers of the reductions Thursday with at least 150 likely to be affected, said the people, asking not to be named as the information is not public. The Vision Fund unit, headquartered in London, had about 500 employees including staff at the Latin America fund. A spokesman for the Vision Fund didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
SoftBank Group Corp. has started laying off employees at its loss-making Vision Fund and is expected to cut at least 30% of its staff, according to people familiar with the matter. The Tokyo-based company began telling some workers of the reductions Thursday with at least 150 likely to be affected, said the people, asking not to be named as the information is not public. The Vision Fund unit, headquartered in London, had about 500 employees including staff at the Latin America fund. A spokesman for the Vision Fund didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Bottom-line: 가장 널리 사용되는 알루미늄은 러시아로부터의 신규 공급을 배제하는 논의가 있을 것으로 보도되며 일간 기준으로 가장 큰 폭 상승함.
Aluminum jumped by a record 8.5% on the London Metal Exchange after Bloomberg reported that the bourse plans to launch a discussion paper on a potential ban on new supplies of Russian metal. Prices for the most widely used base metal spiked to $2,305 a ton in the biggest intraday gain on record. Nickel and zinc rallied more than 4%, paring sharp losses for industrial metals so far this month. The exchange plans to initiate a discussion on whether and under what circumstances it should block new supplies of Russian metal from being delivered to its network of warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the plans aren’t yet public.
Aluminum jumped by a record 8.5% on the London Metal Exchange after Bloomberg reported that the bourse plans to launch a discussion paper on a potential ban on new supplies of Russian metal. Prices for the most widely used base metal spiked to $2,305 a ton in the biggest intraday gain on record. Nickel and zinc rallied more than 4%, paring sharp losses for industrial metals so far this month. The exchange plans to initiate a discussion on whether and under what circumstances it should block new supplies of Russian metal from being delivered to its network of warehouses, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the plans aren’t yet public.
German inflation reached double digits for the first time since the euro was introduced more than 20 years ago, surging more than anticipated after temporary government-relief measures ended and Europe’s energy crisis worsened.
Market Implication: 미국 주가지수가 3개 분기 연속 손실을 기록하며 불길한 징조를 보인단 이야기를 하고 있음. 이번 분기 8월 중순까지 +14%의 랠리는 근간있는 경제가 아닌 약세장에 베팅했던 매도자들의 포지션 회수 영향이 컸기 때문에 모두 반납했다는 것. 2008년 금융위기 당시는 6개 분기 동안 손실을 기록하며 -48%의 시가총액을 잃었음.
There’s yet another ominous sign for markets -- the S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-09, when global markets were roiled by a financial crisis. Though there isn’t necessarily a full-blown crisis yet, the big reversal in gains from the summer months has prompted financial market gurus at Morgan Stanley to Blackrock to flag one coming. Back in 2009, the global financial crisis saw the S&P 500 fall for six consecutive quarters, erasing 48% of its value. Between July-September, the US benchmark lost 1.8%, totaling for an year-to-date decline of 22%. The third quarter was off to a flying start with gains of 14% through mid August, but it faltered as the rally was partly driven by bearish investors covering their short positions, rather than on strong fundamentals.
There’s yet another ominous sign for markets -- the S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-09, when global markets were roiled by a financial crisis. Though there isn’t necessarily a full-blown crisis yet, the big reversal in gains from the summer months has prompted financial market gurus at Morgan Stanley to Blackrock to flag one coming. Back in 2009, the global financial crisis saw the S&P 500 fall for six consecutive quarters, erasing 48% of its value. Between July-September, the US benchmark lost 1.8%, totaling for an year-to-date decline of 22%. The third quarter was off to a flying start with gains of 14% through mid August, but it faltered as the rally was partly driven by bearish investors covering their short positions, rather than on strong fundamentals.
Bottom-line: 이제서야 시장 참여자들이 우리(중앙은행)의 의도(지속적인 금리인상)를 옳게 해석한다고 봄.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US central bankers expect additional policy tightening in coming months and that has been understood by investors. “If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum Thursday. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US central bankers expect additional policy tightening in coming months and that has been understood by investors. “If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum Thursday. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”
Bottom-line: S&P 500 지수를 구성하는 기업 중 단 두 곳만 상승 중임. 지수를 구성하는 기업 중 90%가 당일 하락하는 일이 이번 달 다섯 차례 있었는데, 2020년 3월 여섯 차례와 비교되는 수준임.
Here we go again: at the time of writing only two S&P 500 stocks are rising -- that’s 99.6% down. So far we are at the fifth day this month where more than 90% of the S&P 500 is declining. In March 2020, there were six such days.
Here we go again: at the time of writing only two S&P 500 stocks are rising -- that’s 99.6% down. So far we are at the fifth day this month where more than 90% of the S&P 500 is declining. In March 2020, there were six such days.
US stocks dropped after Federal Reserve officials continued to hammer home the message that they’ll keep raising interest rates to battle inflation, especially after fresh data showed the economy can handle further central-bank tightening.
Market Implication: 2004년 페이스북 창업 이후 첫 축소 계획이란데서 의미가 있는데, 몇 가지 포인트를 눈여겨 보면 좋음. i) 고성장 사회관계망 시대의 종료, ii) 성장이 있는 부문에서도 감축, iii) 감원 된 자리를 신규로 채우지 않음.
Meta Platforms Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg outlined sweeping plans to reorganize teams and reduce headcount for the first time ever, calling an end to an era of rapid growth at the social media giant. In what would be the first major budget cut since the founding of Facebook in 2004, Zuckerberg said the company will freeze hiring and restructure some teams to trim expenses and realign priorities. Meta will likely be smaller in 2023 than it was this year, he said. He announced the freeze during a weekly Q&A session with employees, according to a person in attendance. He added that the company would reduce budgets across most teams, even those that are growing, and that individual teams will sort out how to handle headcount changes. That could mean not filling roles that employees depart, shifting people to other teams, or working to “manage out people who aren't succeeding,” according to remarks reviewed by Bloomberg.
Meta Platforms Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg outlined sweeping plans to reorganize teams and reduce headcount for the first time ever, calling an end to an era of rapid growth at the social media giant. In what would be the first major budget cut since the founding of Facebook in 2004, Zuckerberg said the company will freeze hiring and restructure some teams to trim expenses and realign priorities. Meta will likely be smaller in 2023 than it was this year, he said. He announced the freeze during a weekly Q&A session with employees, according to a person in attendance. He added that the company would reduce budgets across most teams, even those that are growing, and that individual teams will sort out how to handle headcount changes. That could mean not filling roles that employees depart, shifting people to other teams, or working to “manage out people who aren't succeeding,” according to remarks reviewed by Bloomberg.
Market Implication: 중앙은행에 대한 기대의 관성을 다루고 있음. 주식시장이 혼란스러울 때마다 공식석상에 올라 투자자들을 진정시키고 저점이란 인식 하에 매수하게 함. 시대가 변했고, 6개월 간 그들이 어떤 방향으로 가는지 점점 명확하고 큰 소릴 냈지만, 중앙은행이 시장을 지켜줄 것이란 기대의 관성 때문에 3월과 6월 같은 위험한 반등이 있었다고 평가함. 그러나 당신의 포트폴리오가 어떤 영향을 받을지 더는 그들의 관심이 아님.
Wall Street and Main Street Bail on Stocks as Fed Is Enemy No. 1. The Federal Reserve isn’t done tightening the screws on the economy -- and doesn’t care what that does to your portfolio. It took six months, but that message is getting received loud and clear in the stock market, day by day. From retail traders to smart-money speculators, virtually every constituency on Wall Street is pulling up stakes. These kinds of disruptions previously saw Fed officials in the bull-market years rush to the airwaves to calm rattled nerves, effectively conditioning investors to buy dips. That mentality juiced risk rebounds in March and June even as the central bank stepped up its battle against inflation.
No longer.
Fed officials Thursday again hammered home their intention to keep tightening until inflation comes down, markets be damned -- more or less. Retail investors, who bought almost every dip since the Covid crash, are exiting stocks at a rate not seen at any time since the pandemic lows while spending a record to lock in protective options.
Wall Street and Main Street Bail on Stocks as Fed Is Enemy No. 1. The Federal Reserve isn’t done tightening the screws on the economy -- and doesn’t care what that does to your portfolio. It took six months, but that message is getting received loud and clear in the stock market, day by day. From retail traders to smart-money speculators, virtually every constituency on Wall Street is pulling up stakes. These kinds of disruptions previously saw Fed officials in the bull-market years rush to the airwaves to calm rattled nerves, effectively conditioning investors to buy dips. That mentality juiced risk rebounds in March and June even as the central bank stepped up its battle against inflation.
No longer.
Fed officials Thursday again hammered home their intention to keep tightening until inflation comes down, markets be damned -- more or less. Retail investors, who bought almost every dip since the Covid crash, are exiting stocks at a rate not seen at any time since the pandemic lows while spending a record to lock in protective options.