Market Implication: 미국 주가지수가 3개 분기 연속 손실을 기록하며 불길한 징조를 보인단 이야기를 하고 있음. 이번 분기 8월 중순까지 +14%의 랠리는 근간있는 경제가 아닌 약세장에 베팅했던 매도자들의 포지션 회수 영향이 컸기 때문에 모두 반납했다는 것. 2008년 금융위기 당시는 6개 분기 동안 손실을 기록하며 -48%의 시가총액을 잃었음.
There’s yet another ominous sign for markets -- the S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-09, when global markets were roiled by a financial crisis. Though there isn’t necessarily a full-blown crisis yet, the big reversal in gains from the summer months has prompted financial market gurus at Morgan Stanley to Blackrock to flag one coming. Back in 2009, the global financial crisis saw the S&P 500 fall for six consecutive quarters, erasing 48% of its value. Between July-September, the US benchmark lost 1.8%, totaling for an year-to-date decline of 22%. The third quarter was off to a flying start with gains of 14% through mid August, but it faltered as the rally was partly driven by bearish investors covering their short positions, rather than on strong fundamentals.
There’s yet another ominous sign for markets -- the S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-09, when global markets were roiled by a financial crisis. Though there isn’t necessarily a full-blown crisis yet, the big reversal in gains from the summer months has prompted financial market gurus at Morgan Stanley to Blackrock to flag one coming. Back in 2009, the global financial crisis saw the S&P 500 fall for six consecutive quarters, erasing 48% of its value. Between July-September, the US benchmark lost 1.8%, totaling for an year-to-date decline of 22%. The third quarter was off to a flying start with gains of 14% through mid August, but it faltered as the rally was partly driven by bearish investors covering their short positions, rather than on strong fundamentals.
Bottom-line: 이제서야 시장 참여자들이 우리(중앙은행)의 의도(지속적인 금리인상)를 옳게 해석한다고 봄.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US central bankers expect additional policy tightening in coming months and that has been understood by investors. “If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum Thursday. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US central bankers expect additional policy tightening in coming months and that has been understood by investors. “If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum Thursday. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”
Bottom-line: S&P 500 지수를 구성하는 기업 중 단 두 곳만 상승 중임. 지수를 구성하는 기업 중 90%가 당일 하락하는 일이 이번 달 다섯 차례 있었는데, 2020년 3월 여섯 차례와 비교되는 수준임.
Here we go again: at the time of writing only two S&P 500 stocks are rising -- that’s 99.6% down. So far we are at the fifth day this month where more than 90% of the S&P 500 is declining. In March 2020, there were six such days.
Here we go again: at the time of writing only two S&P 500 stocks are rising -- that’s 99.6% down. So far we are at the fifth day this month where more than 90% of the S&P 500 is declining. In March 2020, there were six such days.
US stocks dropped after Federal Reserve officials continued to hammer home the message that they’ll keep raising interest rates to battle inflation, especially after fresh data showed the economy can handle further central-bank tightening.
Market Implication: 2004년 페이스북 창업 이후 첫 축소 계획이란데서 의미가 있는데, 몇 가지 포인트를 눈여겨 보면 좋음. i) 고성장 사회관계망 시대의 종료, ii) 성장이 있는 부문에서도 감축, iii) 감원 된 자리를 신규로 채우지 않음.
Meta Platforms Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg outlined sweeping plans to reorganize teams and reduce headcount for the first time ever, calling an end to an era of rapid growth at the social media giant. In what would be the first major budget cut since the founding of Facebook in 2004, Zuckerberg said the company will freeze hiring and restructure some teams to trim expenses and realign priorities. Meta will likely be smaller in 2023 than it was this year, he said. He announced the freeze during a weekly Q&A session with employees, according to a person in attendance. He added that the company would reduce budgets across most teams, even those that are growing, and that individual teams will sort out how to handle headcount changes. That could mean not filling roles that employees depart, shifting people to other teams, or working to “manage out people who aren't succeeding,” according to remarks reviewed by Bloomberg.
Meta Platforms Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg outlined sweeping plans to reorganize teams and reduce headcount for the first time ever, calling an end to an era of rapid growth at the social media giant. In what would be the first major budget cut since the founding of Facebook in 2004, Zuckerberg said the company will freeze hiring and restructure some teams to trim expenses and realign priorities. Meta will likely be smaller in 2023 than it was this year, he said. He announced the freeze during a weekly Q&A session with employees, according to a person in attendance. He added that the company would reduce budgets across most teams, even those that are growing, and that individual teams will sort out how to handle headcount changes. That could mean not filling roles that employees depart, shifting people to other teams, or working to “manage out people who aren't succeeding,” according to remarks reviewed by Bloomberg.
Market Implication: 중앙은행에 대한 기대의 관성을 다루고 있음. 주식시장이 혼란스러울 때마다 공식석상에 올라 투자자들을 진정시키고 저점이란 인식 하에 매수하게 함. 시대가 변했고, 6개월 간 그들이 어떤 방향으로 가는지 점점 명확하고 큰 소릴 냈지만, 중앙은행이 시장을 지켜줄 것이란 기대의 관성 때문에 3월과 6월 같은 위험한 반등이 있었다고 평가함. 그러나 당신의 포트폴리오가 어떤 영향을 받을지 더는 그들의 관심이 아님.
Wall Street and Main Street Bail on Stocks as Fed Is Enemy No. 1. The Federal Reserve isn’t done tightening the screws on the economy -- and doesn’t care what that does to your portfolio. It took six months, but that message is getting received loud and clear in the stock market, day by day. From retail traders to smart-money speculators, virtually every constituency on Wall Street is pulling up stakes. These kinds of disruptions previously saw Fed officials in the bull-market years rush to the airwaves to calm rattled nerves, effectively conditioning investors to buy dips. That mentality juiced risk rebounds in March and June even as the central bank stepped up its battle against inflation.
No longer.
Fed officials Thursday again hammered home their intention to keep tightening until inflation comes down, markets be damned -- more or less. Retail investors, who bought almost every dip since the Covid crash, are exiting stocks at a rate not seen at any time since the pandemic lows while spending a record to lock in protective options.
Wall Street and Main Street Bail on Stocks as Fed Is Enemy No. 1. The Federal Reserve isn’t done tightening the screws on the economy -- and doesn’t care what that does to your portfolio. It took six months, but that message is getting received loud and clear in the stock market, day by day. From retail traders to smart-money speculators, virtually every constituency on Wall Street is pulling up stakes. These kinds of disruptions previously saw Fed officials in the bull-market years rush to the airwaves to calm rattled nerves, effectively conditioning investors to buy dips. That mentality juiced risk rebounds in March and June even as the central bank stepped up its battle against inflation.
No longer.
Fed officials Thursday again hammered home their intention to keep tightening until inflation comes down, markets be damned -- more or less. Retail investors, who bought almost every dip since the Covid crash, are exiting stocks at a rate not seen at any time since the pandemic lows while spending a record to lock in protective options.
Bottom-line: 공시에 따르면 지난 2분기 154억 달러를 매도하며 원화 약세를 억제하기 위해 시장에 개입했음. 이는 2019년 이 자료를 공개하기 시작한 후 최대치지만, 9월까지 3분기에는 더 많은 달러 매도를 통한 개입을 했을 수도 있음. 그럼에도 불구 달러 대비 원화 가치는 13년래 최저치에 있음. 통화 절하는 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 통제하기 어렵게 만드는 요소임.
South Korea sold record dollars in the second quarter in an effort to stem currency weakness that threatened to further fuel inflation, taking action as a resurgent greenback roiled global markets. Authorities sold net $15.4 billion in the foreign exchange market in the three months through June, according to the Bank of Korea’s quarterly intervention data released Friday on its website. That’s the largest since the central bank started to disclose figures in 2019. The Korean won declined to its lowest level in 13 years this week and is Asia’s worst performing currency this quarter as fears of further aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve spur dollar strength. The BOK may have spent a larger sum in the three months through September to stem the won’s weakness, which poses risks to a Korean economy that relies heavily on imports of energy and food. The depreciation also makes it harder for the bank to rein in inflationary pressures.
South Korea sold record dollars in the second quarter in an effort to stem currency weakness that threatened to further fuel inflation, taking action as a resurgent greenback roiled global markets. Authorities sold net $15.4 billion in the foreign exchange market in the three months through June, according to the Bank of Korea’s quarterly intervention data released Friday on its website. That’s the largest since the central bank started to disclose figures in 2019. The Korean won declined to its lowest level in 13 years this week and is Asia’s worst performing currency this quarter as fears of further aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve spur dollar strength. The BOK may have spent a larger sum in the three months through September to stem the won’s weakness, which poses risks to a Korean economy that relies heavily on imports of energy and food. The depreciation also makes it harder for the bank to rein in inflationary pressures.
Market Implication: 두 국가의 마찰에 대한 생각을 깊게 가지도록 하는, 미국이 중국에서의 제조업 의존을 낮추기 어렵다는 내용임. 추정에 따르면 아이폰 제조과정의 98%가 이뤄지는 중국에서 단 10%의 생산영역을 비중국으로 옮기는데만도 8년이 소요될 것 같다함. 관세, 봉쇄, 대만을 둘러 싼 갈등이 우호국으로의 이전을 권장하지만 실상 어렵다는 사실임.
American companies have had a growing list of reasons to downgrade their ties with China in recent years. Former President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Beijing’s stringent Covid lockdowns. The US-Sino standoff over Taiwan. Political pressure to “friend-shore” supply chains toward nations aligned with Washington. But breaking up, as the adage goes, is hard to do. That conclusion is evident from a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis of Apple Inc., which is trying to reduce its dependence on China. The Cupertino, California-based company company already started producing some iPhone 14 models in India, in an earlier than usual move for new models. And Apple’s largest supplier, Foxconn Technology Group, recently agreed to a $300 million expansion of its production facilities in Vietnam. But Bloomberg Intelligence estimates it would take about eight years to move just 10% of Apple’s production capacity out of China, where roughly 98% of the company’s iPhones have been made. Scores of local component suppliers -- not to mention modern and efficient transport, communication and electricity supplies -- make it particularly difficult to get out of the world’s second-largest economy. “With China accounting for 70% of global smartphone manufacturing and leading Chinese vendors accounting for nearly half of global shipments, the region has a well-developed supply chain, which will be tough to replicate -- and one Apple could lose access to if it moves,” BI’s report from analysts Steven Tseng and Woo Jin Ho said.
American companies have had a growing list of reasons to downgrade their ties with China in recent years. Former President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Beijing’s stringent Covid lockdowns. The US-Sino standoff over Taiwan. Political pressure to “friend-shore” supply chains toward nations aligned with Washington. But breaking up, as the adage goes, is hard to do. That conclusion is evident from a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis of Apple Inc., which is trying to reduce its dependence on China. The Cupertino, California-based company company already started producing some iPhone 14 models in India, in an earlier than usual move for new models. And Apple’s largest supplier, Foxconn Technology Group, recently agreed to a $300 million expansion of its production facilities in Vietnam. But Bloomberg Intelligence estimates it would take about eight years to move just 10% of Apple’s production capacity out of China, where roughly 98% of the company’s iPhones have been made. Scores of local component suppliers -- not to mention modern and efficient transport, communication and electricity supplies -- make it particularly difficult to get out of the world’s second-largest economy. “With China accounting for 70% of global smartphone manufacturing and leading Chinese vendors accounting for nearly half of global shipments, the region has a well-developed supply chain, which will be tough to replicate -- and one Apple could lose access to if it moves,” BI’s report from analysts Steven Tseng and Woo Jin Ho said.
Bottom-line: 광범위한 자산을 아우르는 지수인 'NYSE Composite Index'가 주요 지지선이라 할 수 있는 200주 이동평균선, 14,000 포인트, 2018년과 2020년의 최고점이었던 가격을 모두 하회함. 전반적인 자산군에 걸친 손실 확대는 유동성 부족에 따른 연속적인 환매로 이어질 수 있음. 뱅크 오브 아메리카 전략가 또한 월가에서 최고의 여기는 지표들이 속속 깨지고 있음을 경고함.
Spiraling losses on Wall Street are now snowballing into forced asset liquidation, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. The NYSE Composite Index, which includes US stocks, depositary receipts and real estate investment trusts, has broken multiple technical support levels including its 200-week moving average, the 14,000 mark, as well as 2018 and 2020 highs. Now accumulated losses could be forcing funds to sell more assets to raise cash, accelerating the selloff, according to Bank of America. The “best Wall Street barometer” is breaking down, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Thursday, keeping a tactically bearish view until panic selling forces a central bank intervention. The S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2009 and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index for the first time in 20 years, with investors bracing for more pain. Stocks have been tumbling amid concerns the Federal Reserve will hurl the economy into a recession while tightening policy, weighing on earnings in the process.
Spiraling losses on Wall Street are now snowballing into forced asset liquidation, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. The NYSE Composite Index, which includes US stocks, depositary receipts and real estate investment trusts, has broken multiple technical support levels including its 200-week moving average, the 14,000 mark, as well as 2018 and 2020 highs. Now accumulated losses could be forcing funds to sell more assets to raise cash, accelerating the selloff, according to Bank of America. The “best Wall Street barometer” is breaking down, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Thursday, keeping a tactically bearish view until panic selling forces a central bank intervention. The S&P 500 Index is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2009 and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index for the first time in 20 years, with investors bracing for more pain. Stocks have been tumbling amid concerns the Federal Reserve will hurl the economy into a recession while tightening policy, weighing on earnings in the process.
There was scant comfort available from today’s PCE data. While income was in line, spending was better than expected (0.4% on the month rather than 0.2% forecast), both headline (0.3%) and core (0.6%) inflation were above expectations. That obviously keeps the pressure on the Fed, and by extension financial markets.
Bottom-line: Hot inflation.
The Fed's favored gauge, the core PCE deflator, accelerated more than expected in August to 4.9% from a revised 4.7%, and the headline rate slipped less than forecast to 6.2%. In the euro area, headline CPI accelerated more than expected to an eye-watering 10% this month. Core inflation also sped up more than forecast.
The Fed's favored gauge, the core PCE deflator, accelerated more than expected in August to 4.9% from a revised 4.7%, and the headline rate slipped less than forecast to 6.2%. In the euro area, headline CPI accelerated more than expected to an eye-watering 10% this month. Core inflation also sped up more than forecast.