Bottom-line: 발렌시아가 스니커즈와 4,000달러의 디올 책가방을 발견하기 전까진, 리츠칼튼에서 후드를 입고 버블티를 마시는 학생들을 보며 당신은 어느 대학의 스터디 그룹 정도로 생각할 수 있음. 아시아의 수조 달러에 달하는 부가 다음 세대로 이전 되는 시기에 대확산으로 인해 은행들은 이들의 충성도를 높이던 행사를 온라인으로 대체했지만 효율이 없었음. 최근 이런 행사들을 오프라인으로 재개하면서 충성도를 높이고 은행가들이 필요한 이유를 입증하려 노력하고 있음. 올해 19세의 행사에 참석한 친구는, 이런 행사를 위해 세계 곳곳으로 비행할 의향이 있지만, 온라인으로 한다면 캠을 켜두고 잠들 것이라 말함.
For years Covid froze one of private banking’s best tools for keeping customers loyal -- invite-only events for the children of wealthy clients. Now, as global borders finally re-open, they’re starting to return. In the bowels of Singapore’s Ritz-Carlton hotel 12 young people in gray hoodies sipping bubble tea could be mistaken for a university study group on first glance. That’s until you look down and see the Balenciaga sneakers and $4,000 Christian Dior book totes. The sessions that include the nuances of crypto art are part of a week-long event run by the Bank of Singapore, one of those tentatively resuming physical programs despite the awkward potential risk of infecting some of their richest scions. While the private banks tried to replicate in-person shindigs with Zoom seminars and learning portals during the pandemic, these didn’t always succeed in sufficiently engaging the next generation. Trillions of dollars in Asian wealth will likely shift to the next generation this decade as the region’s elders -- many of whom built businesses that dominate their respective economies -- transfer their fortunes. Financiers who fail to build loyalty among the affluent young and prove their value will likely lose out on lucrative accounts and access to deals. “I would fly around the world just to be somewhere in person,” said Benjamin Hort, a 19-year-old from the Czech Republic who attended the Bank of Singapore session. “Going into online, I’ll just turn my camera on and go to sleep.”.
For years Covid froze one of private banking’s best tools for keeping customers loyal -- invite-only events for the children of wealthy clients. Now, as global borders finally re-open, they’re starting to return. In the bowels of Singapore’s Ritz-Carlton hotel 12 young people in gray hoodies sipping bubble tea could be mistaken for a university study group on first glance. That’s until you look down and see the Balenciaga sneakers and $4,000 Christian Dior book totes. The sessions that include the nuances of crypto art are part of a week-long event run by the Bank of Singapore, one of those tentatively resuming physical programs despite the awkward potential risk of infecting some of their richest scions. While the private banks tried to replicate in-person shindigs with Zoom seminars and learning portals during the pandemic, these didn’t always succeed in sufficiently engaging the next generation. Trillions of dollars in Asian wealth will likely shift to the next generation this decade as the region’s elders -- many of whom built businesses that dominate their respective economies -- transfer their fortunes. Financiers who fail to build loyalty among the affluent young and prove their value will likely lose out on lucrative accounts and access to deals. “I would fly around the world just to be somewhere in person,” said Benjamin Hort, a 19-year-old from the Czech Republic who attended the Bank of Singapore session. “Going into online, I’ll just turn my camera on and go to sleep.”.
Report: 헤지펀드, 공모펀드, 개인 투자자 모두 연 초 이후 현재까지 주식 비중을 축소하고 있지만 긴 기간의 장기 평균에서는 여전히 높은 비중임. 때문에 2023년까지 주식의 매도 압력이 강할 것으로 예상됨. 금리상승, 성장률 둔화, 실업률 상승에 따라 특히 개인 투자자 및 외국인이 매도 주체가 될 것으로 보이며, 기업의 경우 자사주 매입이란 수요가 있음. 낮아진 주식 비중으로 인해 거시경제 환경이 개선될 경우 상승 여력이 존재하지만, 이 랠리의 폭이 크진 않을 것으로 봄.
Our Sentiment Indicator registered -1.1 this week. Hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail traders have slashed equity exposures YTD. However, investor equity positions remain elevated vs. a longer-term history and we forecast further selling in 2023. Rising interest rates, slowing growth, and increased unemployment will drive households to continue selling stocks. Corporates will be the largest source of equity demand due to strong buybacks and weak issuance. Foreign investors will be net sellers of US stocks while pension funds will be net buyers. If macro conditions improve, light positioning represents an upside risk to our year-end price target of 3600, but we expect the upside in such a rally would be limited.
(Goldman Sachs - Despite having slashed equity exposure this year, investors have further scope to de-risk in 2023)
Our Sentiment Indicator registered -1.1 this week. Hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail traders have slashed equity exposures YTD. However, investor equity positions remain elevated vs. a longer-term history and we forecast further selling in 2023. Rising interest rates, slowing growth, and increased unemployment will drive households to continue selling stocks. Corporates will be the largest source of equity demand due to strong buybacks and weak issuance. Foreign investors will be net sellers of US stocks while pension funds will be net buyers. If macro conditions improve, light positioning represents an upside risk to our year-end price target of 3600, but we expect the upside in such a rally would be limited.
(Goldman Sachs - Despite having slashed equity exposure this year, investors have further scope to de-risk in 2023)
Report: 주식에 대한 비중 분석을 주체별로 나누면 재량적 투자자의 경우 2020년 8월 이후 가장 낮은 수준을 기록했으며, 거시적 환경에 동일한 움직임을 보임. 시스템에 기반한 투자자의 경우 지속적으로 최저 수준의 비중을 향하고 있음. 시스템 기반을 세부적으로 나눌 경우 목표 변동성 펀드가 이번에 급격한 주식 비중 축소를 보였고, 추세 추종 펀드의 경우 주식의 추세가 역전되면서 마찬가지 비중을 줄였음. 위험 균등 펀드만 이번에 약간의 비중 증가가 있었음.
Our consolidated measure of equity positioning continued to slide and is now back to the bottom of the post-GFC range (6th percentile, z-score: -1.06) and near the June lows, breaching the -1 std dev mark for a second time this year. Discretionary investor positioning dropped sharply this week to the lowest since July 2020 (9th percentile, z score: -0.71), and is commensurate with a significant slowdown in macro growth (ISM Manufacturing at 46.5). Systematic strategies cut their already low equity positioning to the 5th percentile (z score: -1.62), as volatility remains elevated. Vol control funds reduced their equity exposure sharply to 41.2% (5th percentile), the lowest since June. CTA equity allocations have turned slightly short again in our reading (14th percentile), as the momentum signal becomes increasingly negative. Risk parity funds equity allocation rose slightly from last week’s lows (5th percentile).
(Deutsche Bank - Back To The Bottom Of The Post-GFC Range)
Our consolidated measure of equity positioning continued to slide and is now back to the bottom of the post-GFC range (6th percentile, z-score: -1.06) and near the June lows, breaching the -1 std dev mark for a second time this year. Discretionary investor positioning dropped sharply this week to the lowest since July 2020 (9th percentile, z score: -0.71), and is commensurate with a significant slowdown in macro growth (ISM Manufacturing at 46.5). Systematic strategies cut their already low equity positioning to the 5th percentile (z score: -1.62), as volatility remains elevated. Vol control funds reduced their equity exposure sharply to 41.2% (5th percentile), the lowest since June. CTA equity allocations have turned slightly short again in our reading (14th percentile), as the momentum signal becomes increasingly negative. Risk parity funds equity allocation rose slightly from last week’s lows (5th percentile).
(Deutsche Bank - Back To The Bottom Of The Post-GFC Range)
Report: 주식시장에서 곰은 사라진 것이 아니라 단지 동면에 들어갔을 뿐이었음. 전세계 지수는 2021년 11월 대비 -26% 하락했고, S&P 500 지수는 올해 6월 저점을 하향 돌파함. 주식시장이 전반적으로 고점 대비 -20%의 하락을 보였지만, 만일 경기침체가 임박했다 믿는다면 평균적인 하락폭인 -40%까지 추가적인 20% 하락이 남았음. 일반적으로 약세장의 저점 이후 주식시장은 +30% 가까이 반등하는데, 다만, 첫 1개월 간 +10% 상승하면서 대부분의 이익을 빠르게 회복함.
We once again refresh our Bear Market Almanac, revisiting our work on overlaps between large sell-offs and recessions, and what usually happens around bear market troughs, including market signposts to look out for and peak-trough sequencing. The global equities bear market has resumed this week, with MSCI ACWI down 26% from November 2021 peaks at the index's lowest. Similarly, S&P 500 broke through lows made in June, while MSCI Europe and MSCI EM are now 21% and 40% from cycle highs respectively. The bear never went away – it was merely hibernating. About half of the 20%+ sell-offs in global equities are associated with a US recession, while for US stocks, 13 out of the last 20 bear markets occurred around recessions. ACWI recession bears typically see stocks down ~40% peak-to-trough; if one believes a recession is coming and history is a guide, it would mean global equities still have another 20% or so downside from here. Unlike equity peaks, in which sectors peak at different times, global equity sector troughs tend to be synchronised around bear market troughs. Utilities and oil trough, the yield curve starts to steepen and MBS spreads peak before bear market troughs. Global equities can bounce 30%+ 12 months after the trough, with gains front-loaded. The first month tends to see markets rise by 10%+. All this means being nimble when bear markets are long in the tooth.
(Morgan Stanely - Bad News Bears)
We once again refresh our Bear Market Almanac, revisiting our work on overlaps between large sell-offs and recessions, and what usually happens around bear market troughs, including market signposts to look out for and peak-trough sequencing. The global equities bear market has resumed this week, with MSCI ACWI down 26% from November 2021 peaks at the index's lowest. Similarly, S&P 500 broke through lows made in June, while MSCI Europe and MSCI EM are now 21% and 40% from cycle highs respectively. The bear never went away – it was merely hibernating. About half of the 20%+ sell-offs in global equities are associated with a US recession, while for US stocks, 13 out of the last 20 bear markets occurred around recessions. ACWI recession bears typically see stocks down ~40% peak-to-trough; if one believes a recession is coming and history is a guide, it would mean global equities still have another 20% or so downside from here. Unlike equity peaks, in which sectors peak at different times, global equity sector troughs tend to be synchronised around bear market troughs. Utilities and oil trough, the yield curve starts to steepen and MBS spreads peak before bear market troughs. Global equities can bounce 30%+ 12 months after the trough, with gains front-loaded. The first month tends to see markets rise by 10%+. All this means being nimble when bear markets are long in the tooth.
(Morgan Stanely - Bad News Bears)
Market Implication: 1962년 뮤지컬 올리버!에서 올리버가 노점상 무리를 향해 부르는 노래가 '누가 살 것인가?'인데, 작금의 채권을 도대체 누가 살 것인가에 대한 내용을 다루고 있음. 인플레이션과 공공부문의 적자가 급증하는 상황에서 영국 정부처럼 부채 부담을 확대하려는 행동을 했을 때 국채 시장의 반응이 이 우려가 얼마나 큰지를 보여 준 극단적 사례라 할 수 있음. 실제로 미국 정부의 주요 채권 수요자인 상업은행, 외국 정부, 그리고 중앙은행이 모두 채권 수요자에서 멀리 떨어져 있음. 아마도 우리는 국채에 대한 구조적인 수요 부족에 대해 걱정해야 할 것 같음.
“Who Will Buy?” is the exuberant ensemble number from the 1962 musical hit Oliver! It is also the rallying cry of a number of investors and analysts who are worried about who exactly will be purchasing trillions of dollars worth of bonds as inflation bites and public deficits balloon. Such concerns were on full show last week, when gilt yields soared after the UK government unveiled a mini-budget full of tax cuts that were expected to expand the UK’s debt burden. Prime Minister Liz Truss has since reversed the plan, but worries over the future attractiveness of a wide variety of bonds remains. To understand the concern, look no further than the analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who argue that buyers across a wide variety of debt — including even the US Treasuries which form the backbone of global markets — are stepping away. “We remain concerned about the (lack of) structural demand for Treasuries,” wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy. In fact, they say, all of the three main buyers for US government debt — commercial banks, foreign governments and of course the Federal Reserve itself — appear to have stepped away from the market. While some of the retreat is to be expected as the US central bank tapers its balance sheet, the scale of the shift in appetite is still noteworthy, they write.They estimate that the Fed’s Treasury holdings have dropped by $180 billion year to date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, commercial banks’ collective holdings of Treasuries have fallen by $60 billion this year, after growing more than $700 billion in 2020 through 2021. And foreign governments are also stepping back, with official holdings having dropped $50 billion over the past six months.
“Who Will Buy?” is the exuberant ensemble number from the 1962 musical hit Oliver! It is also the rallying cry of a number of investors and analysts who are worried about who exactly will be purchasing trillions of dollars worth of bonds as inflation bites and public deficits balloon. Such concerns were on full show last week, when gilt yields soared after the UK government unveiled a mini-budget full of tax cuts that were expected to expand the UK’s debt burden. Prime Minister Liz Truss has since reversed the plan, but worries over the future attractiveness of a wide variety of bonds remains. To understand the concern, look no further than the analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who argue that buyers across a wide variety of debt — including even the US Treasuries which form the backbone of global markets — are stepping away. “We remain concerned about the (lack of) structural demand for Treasuries,” wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy. In fact, they say, all of the three main buyers for US government debt — commercial banks, foreign governments and of course the Federal Reserve itself — appear to have stepped away from the market. While some of the retreat is to be expected as the US central bank tapers its balance sheet, the scale of the shift in appetite is still noteworthy, they write.They estimate that the Fed’s Treasury holdings have dropped by $180 billion year to date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, commercial banks’ collective holdings of Treasuries have fallen by $60 billion this year, after growing more than $700 billion in 2020 through 2021. And foreign governments are also stepping back, with official holdings having dropped $50 billion over the past six months.
US stocks gained as Treasury yields halted a seemingly endless surge, with weak US data soothing concern about Fed overtightening.
Bottom-line: 미국 실질금리가 일반적인 때의 4배에 가까운 하락을 보였고, 이는 금융위기나 대확산 때나 나타났던 것임. 아마도 쏠려있는 포지션과 낮은 유동성 환경에서 제조업 설문 결과에서 신규주문과 고용이 모두 수축 국면에 접어들며 발생한 것 같음. 이는 곧 중앙은행의 긴축적 정책의 끝이 오고 있단 희망을 줬던 것으로, 그 기대는 아래 차트에 나타남.
The yield on 10-year TIPS, the real benchmark rate for the US economy, has fallen more than today just four times this century. All of those occasions were during the depths of the most acute market crises in recent memory -- the GFC and the pandemic panic. That’s the scale of today’s move. The reason why the yield moved so far on today of all days is probably related to very poor liquidity and heavy positioning. The trigger was the ISM data from this morning, which showed new orders and employment dipping below 50 -- into contraction -- and raised hopes that the Fed is closer to ending its hiking cycle. The chart below shows how Fed pricing has shifted today.
The yield on 10-year TIPS, the real benchmark rate for the US economy, has fallen more than today just four times this century. All of those occasions were during the depths of the most acute market crises in recent memory -- the GFC and the pandemic panic. That’s the scale of today’s move. The reason why the yield moved so far on today of all days is probably related to very poor liquidity and heavy positioning. The trigger was the ISM data from this morning, which showed new orders and employment dipping below 50 -- into contraction -- and raised hopes that the Fed is closer to ending its hiking cycle. The chart below shows how Fed pricing has shifted today.
Market Implication: 중앙은행의 금리인상 사이클이 느려지거나 혹은 중단 된다면 모든게 편해질까에 대한 내용임. 현재 충분히 높아진 금리 때문에 만기 도래하는 채무를 재실행할 때 기존보다 217bp 이자를 더 지불해야 함. 무엇보다 현재 금리를 ‘오래도록’ 지속하겠다는 중앙은행의 확언인데, 그렇다면 상당기간 높아진 조달비용으로 사업을 영위해야 함. 이는 기업 이익에 압박을 주고, 낮은 할인율을 유지하게 하는 원인이 될 것임.
Peak Fed hawkishness looks to be some way off, but even if it comes to a halt by year’s end there’s still plenty of real economic pain in the pipeline to consider. For example, a US corporate or government treasurer looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 217bps higher on average than the coupons on existing securities. That’s far and away the most in 40 years. Even if the Fed slows and then halts rate increases in the coming months it is committed to keep them higher for longer, so companies will face the first sustained period when it costs more to refinance their debt than the prior sales did. That’s going to add pressure to earnings, and also to valuations, so even if the recent plunge in P/E ratio comes to a halt it is a reason for stocks to remain uncomfortably cheap for an extended period.
Peak Fed hawkishness looks to be some way off, but even if it comes to a halt by year’s end there’s still plenty of real economic pain in the pipeline to consider. For example, a US corporate or government treasurer looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 217bps higher on average than the coupons on existing securities. That’s far and away the most in 40 years. Even if the Fed slows and then halts rate increases in the coming months it is committed to keep them higher for longer, so companies will face the first sustained period when it costs more to refinance their debt than the prior sales did. That’s going to add pressure to earnings, and also to valuations, so even if the recent plunge in P/E ratio comes to a halt it is a reason for stocks to remain uncomfortably cheap for an extended period.
Bottom-line: 상품선물거래위원회에 따르면 채권에 대한 비상업적 매도 포지션이 4년래 최대에 달함. 물론 이 자료만으로 포지션들이 모두 방향성 베팅인지 알 수 없음. 다만, 우리가 달력을 한 장 넘기면서 손익이 재평가되고 심적인 안도감이 생긴다는 점을 떠올려보면, 10월의 성과와 강경한 통화정책의 선회 기대감 형성을 이해할 수 있음. 이런 배경들(특히 통화정책 선회)이 상승을 설명하고 있지만, 공매도 포지션의 청산과 펀더멘탈 개선을 혼동해선 안됨.
There’s nothing quite like the turning of the calendar, eh? Whether it’s the freshness of new P/Ls or simply the psychological relief of moving forward, October has started in an ebullient fashion for financial assets. With this sparkling performance has come another attempt to call the peak in monetary policy cycles, abetted on Tuesday by a dovish hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia that feeds investor fantasies of a key central-bank pivot. While a less-hawkish monetary backdrop ostensibly provides an imprimatur for a financial-asset rally, don’t make the mistake of confusing an overdue short-covering with a positive shift in the fundamentals. The non-commercial bond futures data from the CFTC isn’t a perfect measure, not least because it is impossible to distinguish basis trades from directional bets. Still, it is telling that the aggregate short position rose to the largest in four years last week, increasing by a whopping 181k 10-year equivalents.
There’s nothing quite like the turning of the calendar, eh? Whether it’s the freshness of new P/Ls or simply the psychological relief of moving forward, October has started in an ebullient fashion for financial assets. With this sparkling performance has come another attempt to call the peak in monetary policy cycles, abetted on Tuesday by a dovish hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia that feeds investor fantasies of a key central-bank pivot. While a less-hawkish monetary backdrop ostensibly provides an imprimatur for a financial-asset rally, don’t make the mistake of confusing an overdue short-covering with a positive shift in the fundamentals. The non-commercial bond futures data from the CFTC isn’t a perfect measure, not least because it is impossible to distinguish basis trades from directional bets. Still, it is telling that the aggregate short position rose to the largest in four years last week, increasing by a whopping 181k 10-year equivalents.
Bottom-line: 브리지워터의 설립자인 레이 달리오가 모든 권한을 내려두고 젊은이들이 새로운 물결을 일으킬 수 있도록 물러남.
After 12 years of trying, Ray Dalio is finally letting go. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates has given up control of the firm he built into the world’s largest hedge fund, entrusting its future and $150 billion in assets to a younger generation of leaders with their own ideas about investing. On Sept. 30, he transferred all of his voting rights to the board of directors and stepped down as one of Bridgewater’s three co-chief investment officers. “Ray no longer has the final word,”co-Chief Executive Officer Nir Bar Dea said in an interview. “That’s a big change.”
After 12 years of trying, Ray Dalio is finally letting go. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates has given up control of the firm he built into the world’s largest hedge fund, entrusting its future and $150 billion in assets to a younger generation of leaders with their own ideas about investing. On Sept. 30, he transferred all of his voting rights to the board of directors and stepped down as one of Bridgewater’s three co-chief investment officers. “Ray no longer has the final word,”co-Chief Executive Officer Nir Bar Dea said in an interview. “That’s a big change.”
US stocks extended their October surge, as traders weighed renewed speculation that central banks may moderate their hawkishness. The S&P 500 jumped 3.1%, posting its best two-day performance since April 2020 amid a short squeeze and poor US data.