Market Implication: 1962년 뮤지컬 올리버!에서 올리버가 노점상 무리를 향해 부르는 노래가 '누가 살 것인가?'인데, 작금의 채권을 도대체 누가 살 것인가에 대한 내용을 다루고 있음. 인플레이션과 공공부문의 적자가 급증하는 상황에서 영국 정부처럼 부채 부담을 확대하려는 행동을 했을 때 국채 시장의 반응이 이 우려가 얼마나 큰지를 보여 준 극단적 사례라 할 수 있음. 실제로 미국 정부의 주요 채권 수요자인 상업은행, 외국 정부, 그리고 중앙은행이 모두 채권 수요자에서 멀리 떨어져 있음. 아마도 우리는 국채에 대한 구조적인 수요 부족에 대해 걱정해야 할 것 같음.
“Who Will Buy?” is the exuberant ensemble number from the 1962 musical hit Oliver! It is also the rallying cry of a number of investors and analysts who are worried about who exactly will be purchasing trillions of dollars worth of bonds as inflation bites and public deficits balloon. Such concerns were on full show last week, when gilt yields soared after the UK government unveiled a mini-budget full of tax cuts that were expected to expand the UK’s debt burden. Prime Minister Liz Truss has since reversed the plan, but worries over the future attractiveness of a wide variety of bonds remains. To understand the concern, look no further than the analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who argue that buyers across a wide variety of debt — including even the US Treasuries which form the backbone of global markets — are stepping away. “We remain concerned about the (lack of) structural demand for Treasuries,” wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy. In fact, they say, all of the three main buyers for US government debt — commercial banks, foreign governments and of course the Federal Reserve itself — appear to have stepped away from the market. While some of the retreat is to be expected as the US central bank tapers its balance sheet, the scale of the shift in appetite is still noteworthy, they write.They estimate that the Fed’s Treasury holdings have dropped by $180 billion year to date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, commercial banks’ collective holdings of Treasuries have fallen by $60 billion this year, after growing more than $700 billion in 2020 through 2021. And foreign governments are also stepping back, with official holdings having dropped $50 billion over the past six months.
“Who Will Buy?” is the exuberant ensemble number from the 1962 musical hit Oliver! It is also the rallying cry of a number of investors and analysts who are worried about who exactly will be purchasing trillions of dollars worth of bonds as inflation bites and public deficits balloon. Such concerns were on full show last week, when gilt yields soared after the UK government unveiled a mini-budget full of tax cuts that were expected to expand the UK’s debt burden. Prime Minister Liz Truss has since reversed the plan, but worries over the future attractiveness of a wide variety of bonds remains. To understand the concern, look no further than the analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who argue that buyers across a wide variety of debt — including even the US Treasuries which form the backbone of global markets — are stepping away. “We remain concerned about the (lack of) structural demand for Treasuries,” wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy. In fact, they say, all of the three main buyers for US government debt — commercial banks, foreign governments and of course the Federal Reserve itself — appear to have stepped away from the market. While some of the retreat is to be expected as the US central bank tapers its balance sheet, the scale of the shift in appetite is still noteworthy, they write.They estimate that the Fed’s Treasury holdings have dropped by $180 billion year to date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, commercial banks’ collective holdings of Treasuries have fallen by $60 billion this year, after growing more than $700 billion in 2020 through 2021. And foreign governments are also stepping back, with official holdings having dropped $50 billion over the past six months.
US stocks gained as Treasury yields halted a seemingly endless surge, with weak US data soothing concern about Fed overtightening.
Bottom-line: 미국 실질금리가 일반적인 때의 4배에 가까운 하락을 보였고, 이는 금융위기나 대확산 때나 나타났던 것임. 아마도 쏠려있는 포지션과 낮은 유동성 환경에서 제조업 설문 결과에서 신규주문과 고용이 모두 수축 국면에 접어들며 발생한 것 같음. 이는 곧 중앙은행의 긴축적 정책의 끝이 오고 있단 희망을 줬던 것으로, 그 기대는 아래 차트에 나타남.
The yield on 10-year TIPS, the real benchmark rate for the US economy, has fallen more than today just four times this century. All of those occasions were during the depths of the most acute market crises in recent memory -- the GFC and the pandemic panic. That’s the scale of today’s move. The reason why the yield moved so far on today of all days is probably related to very poor liquidity and heavy positioning. The trigger was the ISM data from this morning, which showed new orders and employment dipping below 50 -- into contraction -- and raised hopes that the Fed is closer to ending its hiking cycle. The chart below shows how Fed pricing has shifted today.
The yield on 10-year TIPS, the real benchmark rate for the US economy, has fallen more than today just four times this century. All of those occasions were during the depths of the most acute market crises in recent memory -- the GFC and the pandemic panic. That’s the scale of today’s move. The reason why the yield moved so far on today of all days is probably related to very poor liquidity and heavy positioning. The trigger was the ISM data from this morning, which showed new orders and employment dipping below 50 -- into contraction -- and raised hopes that the Fed is closer to ending its hiking cycle. The chart below shows how Fed pricing has shifted today.
Market Implication: 중앙은행의 금리인상 사이클이 느려지거나 혹은 중단 된다면 모든게 편해질까에 대한 내용임. 현재 충분히 높아진 금리 때문에 만기 도래하는 채무를 재실행할 때 기존보다 217bp 이자를 더 지불해야 함. 무엇보다 현재 금리를 ‘오래도록’ 지속하겠다는 중앙은행의 확언인데, 그렇다면 상당기간 높아진 조달비용으로 사업을 영위해야 함. 이는 기업 이익에 압박을 주고, 낮은 할인율을 유지하게 하는 원인이 될 것임.
Peak Fed hawkishness looks to be some way off, but even if it comes to a halt by year’s end there’s still plenty of real economic pain in the pipeline to consider. For example, a US corporate or government treasurer looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 217bps higher on average than the coupons on existing securities. That’s far and away the most in 40 years. Even if the Fed slows and then halts rate increases in the coming months it is committed to keep them higher for longer, so companies will face the first sustained period when it costs more to refinance their debt than the prior sales did. That’s going to add pressure to earnings, and also to valuations, so even if the recent plunge in P/E ratio comes to a halt it is a reason for stocks to remain uncomfortably cheap for an extended period.
Peak Fed hawkishness looks to be some way off, but even if it comes to a halt by year’s end there’s still plenty of real economic pain in the pipeline to consider. For example, a US corporate or government treasurer looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 217bps higher on average than the coupons on existing securities. That’s far and away the most in 40 years. Even if the Fed slows and then halts rate increases in the coming months it is committed to keep them higher for longer, so companies will face the first sustained period when it costs more to refinance their debt than the prior sales did. That’s going to add pressure to earnings, and also to valuations, so even if the recent plunge in P/E ratio comes to a halt it is a reason for stocks to remain uncomfortably cheap for an extended period.
Bottom-line: 상품선물거래위원회에 따르면 채권에 대한 비상업적 매도 포지션이 4년래 최대에 달함. 물론 이 자료만으로 포지션들이 모두 방향성 베팅인지 알 수 없음. 다만, 우리가 달력을 한 장 넘기면서 손익이 재평가되고 심적인 안도감이 생긴다는 점을 떠올려보면, 10월의 성과와 강경한 통화정책의 선회 기대감 형성을 이해할 수 있음. 이런 배경들(특히 통화정책 선회)이 상승을 설명하고 있지만, 공매도 포지션의 청산과 펀더멘탈 개선을 혼동해선 안됨.
There’s nothing quite like the turning of the calendar, eh? Whether it’s the freshness of new P/Ls or simply the psychological relief of moving forward, October has started in an ebullient fashion for financial assets. With this sparkling performance has come another attempt to call the peak in monetary policy cycles, abetted on Tuesday by a dovish hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia that feeds investor fantasies of a key central-bank pivot. While a less-hawkish monetary backdrop ostensibly provides an imprimatur for a financial-asset rally, don’t make the mistake of confusing an overdue short-covering with a positive shift in the fundamentals. The non-commercial bond futures data from the CFTC isn’t a perfect measure, not least because it is impossible to distinguish basis trades from directional bets. Still, it is telling that the aggregate short position rose to the largest in four years last week, increasing by a whopping 181k 10-year equivalents.
There’s nothing quite like the turning of the calendar, eh? Whether it’s the freshness of new P/Ls or simply the psychological relief of moving forward, October has started in an ebullient fashion for financial assets. With this sparkling performance has come another attempt to call the peak in monetary policy cycles, abetted on Tuesday by a dovish hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia that feeds investor fantasies of a key central-bank pivot. While a less-hawkish monetary backdrop ostensibly provides an imprimatur for a financial-asset rally, don’t make the mistake of confusing an overdue short-covering with a positive shift in the fundamentals. The non-commercial bond futures data from the CFTC isn’t a perfect measure, not least because it is impossible to distinguish basis trades from directional bets. Still, it is telling that the aggregate short position rose to the largest in four years last week, increasing by a whopping 181k 10-year equivalents.
Bottom-line: 브리지워터의 설립자인 레이 달리오가 모든 권한을 내려두고 젊은이들이 새로운 물결을 일으킬 수 있도록 물러남.
After 12 years of trying, Ray Dalio is finally letting go. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates has given up control of the firm he built into the world’s largest hedge fund, entrusting its future and $150 billion in assets to a younger generation of leaders with their own ideas about investing. On Sept. 30, he transferred all of his voting rights to the board of directors and stepped down as one of Bridgewater’s three co-chief investment officers. “Ray no longer has the final word,”co-Chief Executive Officer Nir Bar Dea said in an interview. “That’s a big change.”
After 12 years of trying, Ray Dalio is finally letting go. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates has given up control of the firm he built into the world’s largest hedge fund, entrusting its future and $150 billion in assets to a younger generation of leaders with their own ideas about investing. On Sept. 30, he transferred all of his voting rights to the board of directors and stepped down as one of Bridgewater’s three co-chief investment officers. “Ray no longer has the final word,”co-Chief Executive Officer Nir Bar Dea said in an interview. “That’s a big change.”
US stocks extended their October surge, as traders weighed renewed speculation that central banks may moderate their hawkishness. The S&P 500 jumped 3.1%, posting its best two-day performance since April 2020 amid a short squeeze and poor US data.
Bottom-line: 1,992명의 미국 성인을 대상으로 9월 23일에서 25일 간 실시 된 설문에 따르면, 최근 미국인을 반으로 가르는 화두는 인플레이션임. 절반은 경기침체를 감수하고도 인플레이션을 통제하길 원하고, 다른 절반은 경기침체를 피하기 위해 인플레이션을 내버려두길 바람. 인플레이션에 대한 중앙은행의 정책으로 인해 설문 응답자의 2/3 이상이 해고나 고용 축소를 우려하고 있고, 3/4 이상이 높아진 금리로 인한 월간 자금 압박을 느끼고 있음. 부채를 진 사람들의 70%는 신용카드 할부, 자동차 할부, 주택 대출 및 학자금 상환에 대한 이자를 두려워 하고 있음.
The latest in the long list of things Americans are divided on? Interest rate hikes. Half of the country wants to tame inflation quickly, even if it means a recession, according to an exclusive study from the Harris Poll. The other half would prefer avoiding a recession, regardless of inflation ticking higher. To curb the largest price increases in four decades, the US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates this year. Policymakers recently hiked rates by 75 basis points for a third straight time and signaled they will continue to tighten monetary conditions. With markets volatile and some employers announcing job cuts, more than two-thirds of Americans are worried that companies will start eliminating staff or hiring less, according to the poll. The interest rates consumers will have to pay on debt is also a concern. About three quarters of Americans who are paying interest express worries about their monthly budgets, due to the jump in rates. Among those that have debt, about 70% are dreading the rising interest on credit card debt, car loans, mortgages and student loans, with millennials the most concerned. In addition, 80% of Gen Z respondents and 76% of millennials are distressed about the interest rates on loans they might try to qualify for. The survey featured a nationally representative sample of 1,992 US adults and was conducted online Sept. 23 to 25.
The latest in the long list of things Americans are divided on? Interest rate hikes. Half of the country wants to tame inflation quickly, even if it means a recession, according to an exclusive study from the Harris Poll. The other half would prefer avoiding a recession, regardless of inflation ticking higher. To curb the largest price increases in four decades, the US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates this year. Policymakers recently hiked rates by 75 basis points for a third straight time and signaled they will continue to tighten monetary conditions. With markets volatile and some employers announcing job cuts, more than two-thirds of Americans are worried that companies will start eliminating staff or hiring less, according to the poll. The interest rates consumers will have to pay on debt is also a concern. About three quarters of Americans who are paying interest express worries about their monthly budgets, due to the jump in rates. Among those that have debt, about 70% are dreading the rising interest on credit card debt, car loans, mortgages and student loans, with millennials the most concerned. In addition, 80% of Gen Z respondents and 76% of millennials are distressed about the interest rates on loans they might try to qualify for. The survey featured a nationally representative sample of 1,992 US adults and was conducted online Sept. 23 to 25.
Market Implication: 호주 중앙은행이 50bp 금리인상 대신 25bp 금리인상을 택하면서 미국 중앙은행과 여타 중앙은행 또한 강경한 통화 긴축에 제동이 걸리지 않겠냐는 긍정론이 대두되고 있음. 금일 뉴질랜드 중앙은행의 금리결정에 대한 예상치를 제시한 22명 중 20명이 50bp 금리인상을 예상하고 있기 때문에 이런 기대감을 종식시킬 수도 있음. 만일 50bp 금리인상이 진행 될 경우 다른 중앙은행들의 공격적 긴축 경로가 여전함을 상기시키게 될 것임.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand looks set to serve stocks a dose of reality -- as it raises rates by 50 bps. Equities surged in the US after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased its benchmark rate by 25 bps, slowing from the 50-bp steps it had been making. The move spurred some optimism that the Fed and other central banks would also scale back the pace of tightening. Now the RBNZ may undo the bullish mood. The Reserve Bank will lift its cash rates to 3.5% from 3%, according to 20 of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Most of them predict another half-point increase at the final meeting of the year in November, and some forecast increases to 4.5% or more in 2023. The decision will serve as a reminder that central banks including the Fed remain on an aggressive tightening path.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand looks set to serve stocks a dose of reality -- as it raises rates by 50 bps. Equities surged in the US after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased its benchmark rate by 25 bps, slowing from the 50-bp steps it had been making. The move spurred some optimism that the Fed and other central banks would also scale back the pace of tightening. Now the RBNZ may undo the bullish mood. The Reserve Bank will lift its cash rates to 3.5% from 3%, according to 20 of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Most of them predict another half-point increase at the final meeting of the year in November, and some forecast increases to 4.5% or more in 2023. The decision will serve as a reminder that central banks including the Fed remain on an aggressive tightening path.
Bottom-line: 국채는 올해 -12.4%의 손실을 주고 있고, 일본 엔화는 24년래 최저 가치에 거래되고 있음. 그럼에 도 불구 피델리티는 국채 및 엔화가 본질가치보다 저평가되어 거래된다 판단해 매수하고 있음. 국채 매수자는 피델리티 외에 제이피모건이나 쥬피터도 있는데, 인플레이션을 통제하기 위한 중앙은행의 정책에 따라 경착륙, 경기침체로의 경로가 명확해 보이기 때문. 이런 시기에 볼록성을 가진 자산이 필요한데 국채와 엔화가 여전히 그런 역할을 한다고 봄.
The world is careening toward recession and buying old haven reliables Treasuries and the yen still offers the best protection, according to Fidelity International. “Our view is a hard landing is going to happen,” said George Efstathopoulos, money manager at the investment giant in Singapore. “We are looking for convexity trades that should do well in a hard landing -- both long-dated Treasuries and yen should,” he said. Treasuries currently make up about 2% of the firm’s global multi-asset income fund, up from zero just a few months ago, Efstathopoulos said. He’s also buying the yen -- a currency wallowing near a 24-year low thanks to the widening yield gap between policy rates in the US and Japan -- as both assets currently look “cheap.”. Fidelity International joins JPMorgan Asset Management and Jupiter Asset Management in buying Treasuries on bets a recession is a virtual certainty. The bullishness comes despite the securities handing investors a record 12.4% loss this year as the Federal Reserve aggressively hikes interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in a generation.
The world is careening toward recession and buying old haven reliables Treasuries and the yen still offers the best protection, according to Fidelity International. “Our view is a hard landing is going to happen,” said George Efstathopoulos, money manager at the investment giant in Singapore. “We are looking for convexity trades that should do well in a hard landing -- both long-dated Treasuries and yen should,” he said. Treasuries currently make up about 2% of the firm’s global multi-asset income fund, up from zero just a few months ago, Efstathopoulos said. He’s also buying the yen -- a currency wallowing near a 24-year low thanks to the widening yield gap between policy rates in the US and Japan -- as both assets currently look “cheap.”. Fidelity International joins JPMorgan Asset Management and Jupiter Asset Management in buying Treasuries on bets a recession is a virtual certainty. The bullishness comes despite the securities handing investors a record 12.4% loss this year as the Federal Reserve aggressively hikes interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in a generation.
Market Implication: 트위터 인수가 불확실성 속에 있을 때 합병차익거래에 뛰어 든 투자자들에게 어제는 충격적일 정도로 좋은 날이었음. 인수 건이 다시 진행되기로 하면서 트위터 주가는 4월 합병계약 체결 이후 합의 된 가격에 가장 가깝게 붙었기 때문임. 이는 합병에 관한 계약법이 강력한 구속력을 가짐을 보여 준 사례임.
Elon Musk’s decision to revive his $44 billion buyout of Twitter Inc. is shockingly good news for investors including billionaire Carl Icahn who continued to bet on the outcome of the deal through months of uncertainty. After Musk and Twitter agreed to proceed with the deal at the original offer price at $54.20 a share on Tuesday, the social media company’s stock rallied as much as 23%, pushing the spread to its narrowest level since the pair entered a merger pact back in April. Tuesday was a “great day for arbs,” said Julian Klymochko, chief executive officer of Accelerate Financial Technologies. The saga closing in Twitter’s favor demonstrates the strength of definitive merger agreements and contract law, said Klymochko, who runs a merger-arbitrage investment fund.
Elon Musk’s decision to revive his $44 billion buyout of Twitter Inc. is shockingly good news for investors including billionaire Carl Icahn who continued to bet on the outcome of the deal through months of uncertainty. After Musk and Twitter agreed to proceed with the deal at the original offer price at $54.20 a share on Tuesday, the social media company’s stock rallied as much as 23%, pushing the spread to its narrowest level since the pair entered a merger pact back in April. Tuesday was a “great day for arbs,” said Julian Klymochko, chief executive officer of Accelerate Financial Technologies. The saga closing in Twitter’s favor demonstrates the strength of definitive merger agreements and contract law, said Klymochko, who runs a merger-arbitrage investment fund.