Bottom-line: 7월 50bp 금리인상 후 높은 금리가 경제에 미칠 영향을 우려하며 8월에는 25bp 금리인상을 했던 한국 중앙은행이 경제위기에나 있던 환율 수준을 방어하기 위해 다시 한 번 큰 폭 금리인상을 단행함. 19명의 경제 예측가 중 16명이 50bp 금리인상을, 나머지 3명은 25bp 금리인상을 예측했었음.
The Bank of Korea returned to outsized interest-rate increases as it sought to shore up a currency that has been driven to crisis-era lows by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy tightening. The South Korean central bank raised its seven-day repurchase rate by a half-percentage point to a 10-year high of 3% on Wednesday, as expected by 16 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The remaining three had forecast a quarter-point move. The BOK is the latest central bank to respond to the Fed’s doubling down on large rate hikes to try to crush inflation. The BOK had already increased its rate by a half-point in July, before downshifting to a quarter-point move in August amid concerns over the impact of larger rate hikes on the wider economy.
The Bank of Korea returned to outsized interest-rate increases as it sought to shore up a currency that has been driven to crisis-era lows by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy tightening. The South Korean central bank raised its seven-day repurchase rate by a half-percentage point to a 10-year high of 3% on Wednesday, as expected by 16 of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The remaining three had forecast a quarter-point move. The BOK is the latest central bank to respond to the Fed’s doubling down on large rate hikes to try to crush inflation. The BOK had already increased its rate by a half-point in July, before downshifting to a quarter-point move in August amid concerns over the impact of larger rate hikes on the wider economy.
Bottom-line: 내일 또 다른 물가지표를 앞두고서 인플레이션의 고뇌 속에서 벗어날 기미가 보이지 않는 데이터는 왜 지수가 상승폭을 모두 반납하게 하는지 이해할만 함.
There’s not a lot of respite from the inflation narrative from today’s PPI figures. Headline monthly prices rose 0.4%, versus an expected 0.2%, with prices excluding food, energy, and trade exceeding expectations by a similar margin. The equity reaction has understandably been to give back some gains, as these figures suggest the chance of yet another upside surprise tomorrow.
There’s not a lot of respite from the inflation narrative from today’s PPI figures. Headline monthly prices rose 0.4%, versus an expected 0.2%, with prices excluding food, energy, and trade exceeding expectations by a similar margin. The equity reaction has understandably been to give back some gains, as these figures suggest the chance of yet another upside surprise tomorrow.
Docent: 투자에서 인간의 본성은 눈에 보이는 그대로 행하지 못함. 배운 것이 있고, 생각하는 것이 있기 때문에 눈에 보이는 현상에 '해석'을 더하려 하며, 그것이 과해지면 '현학적 허세'까지 더해짐. 그렇기 때문에 단순한 추세를 추종하는 전략의 집합보다 못한 성과를 때로는 거두기도 함. 우리가 인간의 불필요한 본성을 제거하는 것이 얼마나 도움이 될지 한 번 생각해보는데 이 기사가 좋을 것 같음. 헤지펀드의 전략을 복제하는 한 상장지수펀드의 설정액이 초기 6천만 달러에서 10억 달러가 되었음. 성장률로 치면 1,500%며, 5천만 달러 이상의 상장지수펀드들 중에 가장 빠른 속도임. 특히 이 헤지펀드 상장지수펀드는 설정액 뿐만 아니라 수익률 또한 훌륭한데, 연 초 이후 +33%의 성과를 거두고 있음. 이들은 다양한 자산의 선물을 활용해 추세를 추종하는 전략을 주로 사용하며, 올해 주 된 성과의 요인은 인플레이션임. 이들 전략은 적시에 원유를 매수했고, 적시에 국채를 매도했으며, 또한 적시에 달러를 매수했음.
A hedge fund-mimicking ETF that surfs trends across assets has just passed a fresh milestone as it trounces peers in 2022’s inflation-driven market maelstrom. The iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (ticker DBMF) began 2022 with just $60 million in assets, but now boasts more than $1 billion after a consistent run of inflows stretching back 19 months, according to Bloomberg data. The product, which replicates the strategies of trend-following hedge funds, has returned 33% so far this year amid prolonged moves in a host of assets as the Federal Reserve ramps up interest rates to combat runaway inflation. So-called managed futures strategies take both long and short positions across a slew of derivatives seeking to ride price momentum and clear market trends. The cohort is thriving this year amid the ongoing fallout from the Fed’s tightening campaign. The combination of flows and price jump means DBMF’s assets have now swelled more than 1,500% this year. That makes it the fastest-growing ETF with more than $50 million in assets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Athanasios Psarofagis. “What managed futures got right this year was inflation,” said Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments, the co-manager of DBMF. “They were long crude oil at the right time, short Treasuries at the right time, and long the dollar at the right time.”.
A hedge fund-mimicking ETF that surfs trends across assets has just passed a fresh milestone as it trounces peers in 2022’s inflation-driven market maelstrom. The iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (ticker DBMF) began 2022 with just $60 million in assets, but now boasts more than $1 billion after a consistent run of inflows stretching back 19 months, according to Bloomberg data. The product, which replicates the strategies of trend-following hedge funds, has returned 33% so far this year amid prolonged moves in a host of assets as the Federal Reserve ramps up interest rates to combat runaway inflation. So-called managed futures strategies take both long and short positions across a slew of derivatives seeking to ride price momentum and clear market trends. The cohort is thriving this year amid the ongoing fallout from the Fed’s tightening campaign. The combination of flows and price jump means DBMF’s assets have now swelled more than 1,500% this year. That makes it the fastest-growing ETF with more than $50 million in assets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Athanasios Psarofagis. “What managed futures got right this year was inflation,” said Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments, the co-manager of DBMF. “They were long crude oil at the right time, short Treasuries at the right time, and long the dollar at the right time.”.
US stocks fell, extending a six-day losing streak, as investors weighed the FOMC minutes and braced for Thursday's CPI data. The S&P 500 surrendered early gains, slipping into the red in the final minutes of trading. Treasuries advanced across the curve, pushing 10-year yields down 5 bps to 3.90%.
Docent: 2년물 국채 금리는 정책금리를 가장 잘 반영하며, 5년, 10년, 30년 만기의 국채보다 만기가 짧아 듀레이션 위험이 적다고 할 수 있음. 그럼에도 불구 기사는 2년물 국채조차도 듀레이션 위험을 걱정하며 매수를 꺼리고 있음. 워렌 버핏은 다른 사람들이 팔 때 사야한다는 격언을 남겼고, 15년래 최고치에 도달한 2년물 국채 금리라면 저점 매수가 나타날만 하지만 그러지 않고 있음. 가장 큰 이유는 중앙은행의 정책 방향이 여전히 조정을 거치는 중이기 때문인데, 강한 경제 데이터로 인해 최종 금리를 더 높일 위험이 있다는 것임. 이는 새벽에 공개 된 의사록에서도 금리를 너무 높게 올리는 것이 아니라 너무 적게 올리는 것에 대해 우려가 더 컸단게 공개되며 신빙성을 줌. 2023년 10월 만기의 채권이 4.2%의 만기 수익률을 주는데 굳이 2년 만기 채권을 보유 할 이유가 있는가, 이 답변이 작금의 채권 투자자들의 상태임.
Bond traders are still hesitant to take Warren Buffett’s advice and buy when others are selling. The worst Treasury market rout in decades has pushed policy sensitive two-year yields to around 4.3%, a 15-year high, from just 0.7% at the end of December. So it would seem a ripe time for dip buyers to dive in. But with the US Labor Department Thursday expected to report that key inflation gauges are holding near four-decade highs, investors are wary of further surprises that could drive the market to anticipate an even steeper course of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. “We are not ready to dip our toes in and take the other side,” following the brutal bond selloff this year, said Kelsey Berro, a fixed-income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “What we need to see is more visibility of the policy path. The front-end of the Treasury curve has scope to move higher.”. Those risks were underscored by Wednesday’s release of the Fed meeting minutes from September, which showed that many policy makers were more concerned about tightening policy too little than too much. Markets have steadily ratcheted up estimates of where the Fed’s key policy rate will peak as the economy has been resilient in the face of the central bank’s most aggressive hiking in decades. The risk that rate-hike expectations will continue to rise has driven some investors into Treasury bills due in one year or less, which have less downside risk from interest-rate increases. Bills due in October 2023 are currently yielding over 4.2%. “The 12-month bill has the same yield as 2-years -- why would you take the duration risk?” said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
Bond traders are still hesitant to take Warren Buffett’s advice and buy when others are selling. The worst Treasury market rout in decades has pushed policy sensitive two-year yields to around 4.3%, a 15-year high, from just 0.7% at the end of December. So it would seem a ripe time for dip buyers to dive in. But with the US Labor Department Thursday expected to report that key inflation gauges are holding near four-decade highs, investors are wary of further surprises that could drive the market to anticipate an even steeper course of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. “We are not ready to dip our toes in and take the other side,” following the brutal bond selloff this year, said Kelsey Berro, a fixed-income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “What we need to see is more visibility of the policy path. The front-end of the Treasury curve has scope to move higher.”. Those risks were underscored by Wednesday’s release of the Fed meeting minutes from September, which showed that many policy makers were more concerned about tightening policy too little than too much. Markets have steadily ratcheted up estimates of where the Fed’s key policy rate will peak as the economy has been resilient in the face of the central bank’s most aggressive hiking in decades. The risk that rate-hike expectations will continue to rise has driven some investors into Treasury bills due in one year or less, which have less downside risk from interest-rate increases. Bills due in October 2023 are currently yielding over 4.2%. “The 12-month bill has the same yield as 2-years -- why would you take the duration risk?” said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
The third-quarter results of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s biggest contract chipmaker and Apple’s key supplier. We’ll go live on Oct. 13 a little before 1:30 p.m. Taipei time (6:30 a.m. London) to bring you the earnings report, followed by a management conference call scheduled for 2 p.m.
용어 설명.
HPC: High-Performance Computing. EUV: Extreme ultraviolet lithography. 7N, 5N, etc.: TSMC refers to its production nodes with the N designation after a number, which is roughly analogous to the traditional nanometer measurement. Basically, think of 7N = 7-nanometer = 7nm. Mature nodes: Chips made at a geometry of 28nm or larger fall into TSMC’s mature tech bucket. Fabs and fabless: Chip fabrication facilities and companies that don’t have them.
HPC: High-Performance Computing. EUV: Extreme ultraviolet lithography. 7N, 5N, etc.: TSMC refers to its production nodes with the N designation after a number, which is roughly analogous to the traditional nanometer measurement. Basically, think of 7N = 7-nanometer = 7nm. Mature nodes: Chips made at a geometry of 28nm or larger fall into TSMC’s mature tech bucket. Fabs and fabless: Chip fabrication facilities and companies that don’t have them.
Bottom-line: 5nm 기술이 3분기 매출에 기여한 비중은 28%로 지난 2분기 21%보다 높아졌음.
The most-advanced 5nm technology contributed 28% in 3Q sales, jumping from 21% in 2Q.
The most-advanced 5nm technology contributed 28% in 3Q sales, jumping from 21% in 2Q.
Bottom-line: 지역별 매출을 보자면 북미가 64%에서 72%로 높아졌고, 중국이 13%에서 8%로 감소했음.
Net revenue by geography: North America jumps up to 72% from 64% and China shrinks to 8% from 13% on a quarterly basis. This might again speak to the currency situation with the US dollar dominating everything.
Net revenue by geography: North America jumps up to 72% from 64% and China shrinks to 8% from 13% on a quarterly basis. This might again speak to the currency situation with the US dollar dominating everything.
Bottom-line: 스마트폰 사업의 매출 기여도 소폭 상승했기 때문에 아이폰 14의 부진 영향은 아직 불명확함.
Sales contribution from smartphone business was also up slightly. The impact from the widely speculated poor iPhone 14 reception isn’t clear yet.
Sales contribution from smartphone business was also up slightly. The impact from the widely speculated poor iPhone 14 reception isn’t clear yet.
Bottom-liine: 총이익률 60%는 2005년 1분기 이후 가장 높고, 매출액이 이전 분기 대비 14.8% 증가한데 가장 크게 기여한 쪽은 5nm 기술임. 위 테이블을 참고하길 바람.
The gross margin this quarter is TSMC’s best since at least the March quarter of 2005. Revenue increased 14.8% quarter-over-quarter, according to the company, supported by strong demand for 5nm technologies. This table from the company’s statement provides more detail.
The gross margin this quarter is TSMC’s best since at least the March quarter of 2005. Revenue increased 14.8% quarter-over-quarter, according to the company, supported by strong demand for 5nm technologies. This table from the company’s statement provides more detail.
Bottom-line: 동사는 가격 결정력에 우위를 점하는 바 웨이퍼의 ASP가 5,000달러를 돌파했음. 7nm와 5nm를 합칠 경우 3분기 매출액의 54%를 기여함.
TSMC is really enjoying pricing power. For the first time, ASP per wafer cracked $5,000. 7nm technology contributed to 26% of 3Q sales. Advanced nodes -- meaning 5nm + 7nm combined -- accounted for a total of 54% of TSMC’s sales in the third quarter.
TSMC is really enjoying pricing power. For the first time, ASP per wafer cracked $5,000. 7nm technology contributed to 26% of 3Q sales. Advanced nodes -- meaning 5nm + 7nm combined -- accounted for a total of 54% of TSMC’s sales in the third quarter.
Bottom-line: 긍정적 신호 중의 하나가 재고 기간인데, 이전 분기 95일에서 90일로 줄었음. 재고 기간이 줄어든 것은 2019년 4분기 이후 처음임.
One of the most positive signs from these numbers is inventory. TSMC holds 90 days of inventory, down from 95 a quarter prior. It’s the first time since 4Q 2019 that inventory days fell.
One of the most positive signs from these numbers is inventory. TSMC holds 90 days of inventory, down from 95 a quarter prior. It’s the first time since 4Q 2019 that inventory days fell.
Bottom-line: 예상치를 상회한 것은 위에 열거한 것 외에도 영업이익률인데, 50.6%로 기존 추정인 47%~49%를 뛰어넘음.
And another better-than-expected result: operating margin was 50.6% in 3Q; beats TSMC’s own estimate of 47-49%.
And another better-than-expected result: operating margin was 50.6% in 3Q; beats TSMC’s own estimate of 47-49%.
Bottom-line: 중국의 기여가 줄어드는 것은 결론적으로 전자장비 제조에서 허브 역할을 하던 것을 잃어가는 것임. 바이러스 억제 정책이 공급과 수요 모두를 눌렀고, 애플이 인도를 이용하게 된 이유를 알 수 있게 해줌.
The decline in China’s share of sales is a sign that the world’s largest electronics-making hub is losing steam. Covid Zero restrictions have curbed both demand and supply. Supply chain disruptions worsened that situation and, of course, Apple is now making iPhones in India.
The decline in China’s share of sales is a sign that the world’s largest electronics-making hub is losing steam. Covid Zero restrictions have curbed both demand and supply. Supply chain disruptions worsened that situation and, of course, Apple is now making iPhones in India.