Bottom-line: 삼성전자와 같은 케이스로 1년 유예를 받을 수 있는지 경영진의 이야기를 들어 볼 시간임.
Samsung has been granted a one-year exemption from US restrictions that block exports of advanced chips and related equipment to China, Wall Street Journal reported just now. TSMC’s China business could get similar exemption, let’s see if the executives can confirm this.
Samsung has been granted a one-year exemption from US restrictions that block exports of advanced chips and related equipment to China, Wall Street Journal reported just now. TSMC’s China business could get similar exemption, let’s see if the executives can confirm this.
Bottom-line: 등장인물 소개.
Jeff Su, TSMC’s IR director, gets us rolling. Speakers today will be CFO Wendell Huang and CEO C.C. Wei.
Jeff Su, TSMC’s IR director, gets us rolling. Speakers today will be CFO Wendell Huang and CEO C.C. Wei.
Bottom-line: 60.4%의 총이익률은 제시한 것보다 훨씬 높으면 이는 환율 효과 덕분임.
60.4% gross margin “is slightly ahead of our good guidance,” Huang says, crediting the favorable exchange rate.
60.4% gross margin “is slightly ahead of our good guidance,” Huang says, crediting the favorable exchange rate.
Bottom-line: 3nm에 도달하기 전까지 5nm, 7nm가 수익성 높은 기술로써 계속 기여할 것임. 4분기 매출액은 199억 달러에서 207억 달러 사이로 전망함.
54% of wafer revenue in 3Q for TSMC came from advanced technologies, the 5nm and 7nm classes, Huang notes. This is also the most lucrative stuff TSMC makes - until its next-gen 3nm production ramps up. TSMC Sees 4Q Sales $19.9B to $20.7B
54% of wafer revenue in 3Q for TSMC came from advanced technologies, the 5nm and 7nm classes, Huang notes. This is also the most lucrative stuff TSMC makes - until its next-gen 3nm production ramps up. TSMC Sees 4Q Sales $19.9B to $20.7B
Bottom-line: 4분기 총이익률은 59.5%에서 61.5% 사이로 전망하며, 이는 현재 시장 추정치인 57.9%보다 높음. 영업이익률은 49%에서 51% 사이로 전망하며, 이 또한 추정치인 47%보다 높음.
TSMC Sees 4Q Gross Margin 59.5% to 61.5%, Est. 57.9%. TSMC Sees 4Q Oper Margin 49% to 51%, Est. 47%.
TSMC Sees 4Q Gross Margin 59.5% to 61.5%, Est. 57.9%. TSMC Sees 4Q Oper Margin 49% to 51%, Est. 47%.
Bottom-line: 3nm에 대한 고객사 수요는 공급을 초과하며, 첫 고객들은 고성능 컴퓨팅이나 스마트폰 부문일 것임. 또한 이 기술 분야에 있어 선두를 지킬 것이라 확신함.
Customer demand will be stronger than supply of 3nm chips, Wei says. Initial clients for 3nm will be in high-performance computing and smartphone segments. “Our 3nm technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology when it is introduced,” Wei says. Foundry rival Samsung made a big deal of getting its 3nm product out at the end of Q2 this year, so TSMC is talking up its tech lead.
Customer demand will be stronger than supply of 3nm chips, Wei says. Initial clients for 3nm will be in high-performance computing and smartphone segments. “Our 3nm technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology when it is introduced,” Wei says. Foundry rival Samsung made a big deal of getting its 3nm product out at the end of Q2 this year, so TSMC is talking up its tech lead.
Bottom-line: 성능과 전력 효율이 고객사들에게 가장 큰 문제며, 이를 해결하게 위해 진보 된 기술을 채택하기에 이른 것임. 오늘날 에너지 위기가 얼마나 역풍인지를 감안해보면 당연한 일임.
“System performance and power efficiency has become a key motivation for customers to adopt our leading-edge technology,” Wei says. He’s not wrong. Companies like Amazon, which designs its own server chips, are getting into more application-specific chip designs to squeeze out every little bit of energy efficiency. And given how the cost of energy has become one of this year’s biggest headaches for both business and consumers, yeah, more advanced and efficient chips -- deployed at scale -- will make a difference and be in demand.
“System performance and power efficiency has become a key motivation for customers to adopt our leading-edge technology,” Wei says. He’s not wrong. Companies like Amazon, which designs its own server chips, are getting into more application-specific chip designs to squeeze out every little bit of energy efficiency. And given how the cost of energy has become one of this year’s biggest headaches for both business and consumers, yeah, more advanced and efficient chips -- deployed at scale -- will make a difference and be in demand.
Bottom-line: 질의응답 내용 몇가지를 정리해보자면, 스마트폰 수요 둔화 및 지연 따른 것은 순환적이며 내년도 하반기부터 회복될 것으로 전망함. 설비투자의 경우 내년에도 불확실성을 감안해 관리의 영역에 있을 것이지만 세부적 내용은 밝히지 않음. 다만, 추가적인 설비투자 축소 가능성은 열어둠. 미국 제재의 경우 이를 준수할 수 있도록 할 것임. 미국의 제재가 어떤 영향을 줄 것인지 평가하기는 이른 시점이라 밝힘. 스마트폰 수요의 경우 핵심 고객사는 5nm에 있기 때문에 6nm, 7nm 둔화가 그들에 대한 이야기는 아님을 밝힘.
The Q&A starts. The first question comes from JP Morgan’s Gokul Hariharan on 6nm-7nm nodes. “Demand dropped because the market became soft -- the weakness in smartphones and PCs. And also a big factor is our customers’ products had a schedule delay,” Wei says. “This is a cyclical issue and will pick up anyway,” Wei says. “We believe things will pick up from the second half of 2023.”. It may be a bit optimistic from TSMC to call the slump in market demand a cyclical issue. Huang, the CFO, says “near-term uncertainties” will be considered when setting next year’s capex. But he didn’t give details. “Looking ahead to 2023, we will continue to be careful and manage our business prudently given near-term uncertainties. We will adjust and tighten our capex where appropriate,” CFO Huang says. So TSMC is not ruling out further capex cuts. TSMC’s Arizona and Kumamoto, Japan fabs are “on schedule,” Wei says. Wei says TSMC’s Nanjing plant has got “one-year authorization for 28nm expansion.”. TSMC will ensure full compliance with new US curbs, Wei says confidently. Impact from the new US restrictions on China trade is limited and manageable, TSMC says. TSMC is blaming falling demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips on weakening smartphone market. It’s too early to assess the impact of US restrictions, Wei says, adding the company will update investors when an assessment is available. It seems a growing number of non-Chinese chip makers have got exemptions from the US to continue operations in China. Besides TSMC and Samsung, US multinationals such as Micron and Intel also have plants in China. Some analysts seem to be surprised by TSMC’s guidance on lower utilization rate for later this year and weak demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips. But prolonged weakness in the global smartphone market means this shouldn’t be a surprise. To Debby’s point about TSMC pinning blame on the smartphone market -- 6nm and 7nm mobile chips aren’t Apple’s latest, which are made at 5nm. So TSMC is not talking about its most important customer when saying smartphones are weaker. Not necessarily, anyway.
The Q&A starts. The first question comes from JP Morgan’s Gokul Hariharan on 6nm-7nm nodes. “Demand dropped because the market became soft -- the weakness in smartphones and PCs. And also a big factor is our customers’ products had a schedule delay,” Wei says. “This is a cyclical issue and will pick up anyway,” Wei says. “We believe things will pick up from the second half of 2023.”. It may be a bit optimistic from TSMC to call the slump in market demand a cyclical issue. Huang, the CFO, says “near-term uncertainties” will be considered when setting next year’s capex. But he didn’t give details. “Looking ahead to 2023, we will continue to be careful and manage our business prudently given near-term uncertainties. We will adjust and tighten our capex where appropriate,” CFO Huang says. So TSMC is not ruling out further capex cuts. TSMC’s Arizona and Kumamoto, Japan fabs are “on schedule,” Wei says. Wei says TSMC’s Nanjing plant has got “one-year authorization for 28nm expansion.”. TSMC will ensure full compliance with new US curbs, Wei says confidently. Impact from the new US restrictions on China trade is limited and manageable, TSMC says. TSMC is blaming falling demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips on weakening smartphone market. It’s too early to assess the impact of US restrictions, Wei says, adding the company will update investors when an assessment is available. It seems a growing number of non-Chinese chip makers have got exemptions from the US to continue operations in China. Besides TSMC and Samsung, US multinationals such as Micron and Intel also have plants in China. Some analysts seem to be surprised by TSMC’s guidance on lower utilization rate for later this year and weak demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips. But prolonged weakness in the global smartphone market means this shouldn’t be a surprise. To Debby’s point about TSMC pinning blame on the smartphone market -- 6nm and 7nm mobile chips aren’t Apple’s latest, which are made at 5nm. So TSMC is not talking about its most important customer when saying smartphones are weaker. Not necessarily, anyway.
Bottom-line: 완전히 결정된 사안은 아니나 리즈 트러스 총리의 감세안을 철회할 방법을 논의 중이라 소식에 정통한 사람으로부터 전해짐.
UK officials at No. 10 and the Treasury are discussing how they can back down from Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans for a massive unfunded package of tax cuts, according to a person familiar with their conversations. The officials are drafting options for Truss but no final decision has been taken and they are waiting for Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to return to London from Washington, where he has been attending meetings of the International Monetary Fund, the person said, asking not to be identified commenting on private discussions.
UK officials at No. 10 and the Treasury are discussing how they can back down from Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans for a massive unfunded package of tax cuts, according to a person familiar with their conversations. The officials are drafting options for Truss but no final decision has been taken and they are waiting for Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to return to London from Washington, where he has been attending meetings of the International Monetary Fund, the person said, asking not to be identified commenting on private discussions.
Bottom-line: 고용시장이 뜨겁고, 인플레이션 또한 뜨거운 상황. 이번 물가지표는 중앙은행이 금리를 추가적으로 얼마나 더 인상해야 하는지, 그리고 중간선거의 투표에 관해 중요한 데이터가 될 것임.
With the labor market still running hot, and inflation running even hotter, this month’s CPI report will be one of the last big sets of data before the Federal Reserve convenes to consider more rate hiking -- and before US voters head to the polls for midterm elections.
With the labor market still running hot, and inflation running even hotter, this month’s CPI report will be one of the last big sets of data before the Federal Reserve convenes to consider more rate hiking -- and before US voters head to the polls for midterm elections.
Wow. look at stock futures: contracts on the S&P 500 went from up 1.3% to now down more than 1%.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 75bp 금리인상은 선물시장에 100% 반영됨.
Fed Swaps Fully Price 75-Basis-Point Rate Hike in November.
Fed Swaps Fully Price 75-Basis-Point Rate Hike in November.
Bottom-line: 40년래 최고 수준의 인플레이션은 민주당에게 재앙이 될 것임.
For Democrats, this is a disaster. Today’s is the final CPI report ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election. You can bet that Republicans will be hitting this hard -- worst inflation in four decades.
For Democrats, this is a disaster. Today’s is the final CPI report ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election. You can bet that Republicans will be hitting this hard -- worst inflation in four decades.
Bottom-line: 선물시장은 중앙은행 정책 입안자들이 제시했던 수준보다 더 높은 수준의 최종금리로 수정해야 할 필요성이 있다는 것을 보여주고 있음.
Interest-rate futures show that traders think the Fed will need to raise rates even more than policymakers projected just last month. Contracts indicate a 4.65% peak in March 2023. Swaps are pricing in even more, at 4.85%. The median forecast of Fed policymakers last month was 4.6% for next year.
Interest-rate futures show that traders think the Fed will need to raise rates even more than policymakers projected just last month. Contracts indicate a 4.65% peak in March 2023. Swaps are pricing in even more, at 4.85%. The median forecast of Fed policymakers last month was 4.6% for next year.
Bottom-line: 작년 바이든 정부는 인플레이션의 원인에 대해 바이러스 대확산에 따른 영향을 받는 일부 요소 때문으로 지적했지만, 지금 데이터는 모든 범위에 인플레이션이 발생하고 있음.
It’s hard to escape concluding that the Fed really let the genie out of the inflation bottle. And while Biden administration officials last year were talking about how the increases in consumer prices were essentially just reflecting a few categories, like autos, that were affected by pandemic-hit supply-chain bottlenecks, it’s really broad-based now.
It’s hard to escape concluding that the Fed really let the genie out of the inflation bottle. And while Biden administration officials last year were talking about how the increases in consumer prices were essentially just reflecting a few categories, like autos, that were affected by pandemic-hit supply-chain bottlenecks, it’s really broad-based now.
Bottom-line: 8월과 9월 물가지표에서 각 항목을 분해한 것이며, 9월 상승한 부문이 훨씬 더 많다는 사실을 알 수 있음.
Showing August and September’s CPI report for the month-on-month change -- a lot more red in September.
Showing August and September’s CPI report for the month-on-month change -- a lot more red in September.