Bottom-line: 성능과 전력 효율이 고객사들에게 가장 큰 문제며, 이를 해결하게 위해 진보 된 기술을 채택하기에 이른 것임. 오늘날 에너지 위기가 얼마나 역풍인지를 감안해보면 당연한 일임.
“System performance and power efficiency has become a key motivation for customers to adopt our leading-edge technology,” Wei says. He’s not wrong. Companies like Amazon, which designs its own server chips, are getting into more application-specific chip designs to squeeze out every little bit of energy efficiency. And given how the cost of energy has become one of this year’s biggest headaches for both business and consumers, yeah, more advanced and efficient chips -- deployed at scale -- will make a difference and be in demand.
“System performance and power efficiency has become a key motivation for customers to adopt our leading-edge technology,” Wei says. He’s not wrong. Companies like Amazon, which designs its own server chips, are getting into more application-specific chip designs to squeeze out every little bit of energy efficiency. And given how the cost of energy has become one of this year’s biggest headaches for both business and consumers, yeah, more advanced and efficient chips -- deployed at scale -- will make a difference and be in demand.
Bottom-line: 질의응답 내용 몇가지를 정리해보자면, 스마트폰 수요 둔화 및 지연 따른 것은 순환적이며 내년도 하반기부터 회복될 것으로 전망함. 설비투자의 경우 내년에도 불확실성을 감안해 관리의 영역에 있을 것이지만 세부적 내용은 밝히지 않음. 다만, 추가적인 설비투자 축소 가능성은 열어둠. 미국 제재의 경우 이를 준수할 수 있도록 할 것임. 미국의 제재가 어떤 영향을 줄 것인지 평가하기는 이른 시점이라 밝힘. 스마트폰 수요의 경우 핵심 고객사는 5nm에 있기 때문에 6nm, 7nm 둔화가 그들에 대한 이야기는 아님을 밝힘.
The Q&A starts. The first question comes from JP Morgan’s Gokul Hariharan on 6nm-7nm nodes. “Demand dropped because the market became soft -- the weakness in smartphones and PCs. And also a big factor is our customers’ products had a schedule delay,” Wei says. “This is a cyclical issue and will pick up anyway,” Wei says. “We believe things will pick up from the second half of 2023.”. It may be a bit optimistic from TSMC to call the slump in market demand a cyclical issue. Huang, the CFO, says “near-term uncertainties” will be considered when setting next year’s capex. But he didn’t give details. “Looking ahead to 2023, we will continue to be careful and manage our business prudently given near-term uncertainties. We will adjust and tighten our capex where appropriate,” CFO Huang says. So TSMC is not ruling out further capex cuts. TSMC’s Arizona and Kumamoto, Japan fabs are “on schedule,” Wei says. Wei says TSMC’s Nanjing plant has got “one-year authorization for 28nm expansion.”. TSMC will ensure full compliance with new US curbs, Wei says confidently. Impact from the new US restrictions on China trade is limited and manageable, TSMC says. TSMC is blaming falling demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips on weakening smartphone market. It’s too early to assess the impact of US restrictions, Wei says, adding the company will update investors when an assessment is available. It seems a growing number of non-Chinese chip makers have got exemptions from the US to continue operations in China. Besides TSMC and Samsung, US multinationals such as Micron and Intel also have plants in China. Some analysts seem to be surprised by TSMC’s guidance on lower utilization rate for later this year and weak demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips. But prolonged weakness in the global smartphone market means this shouldn’t be a surprise. To Debby’s point about TSMC pinning blame on the smartphone market -- 6nm and 7nm mobile chips aren’t Apple’s latest, which are made at 5nm. So TSMC is not talking about its most important customer when saying smartphones are weaker. Not necessarily, anyway.
The Q&A starts. The first question comes from JP Morgan’s Gokul Hariharan on 6nm-7nm nodes. “Demand dropped because the market became soft -- the weakness in smartphones and PCs. And also a big factor is our customers’ products had a schedule delay,” Wei says. “This is a cyclical issue and will pick up anyway,” Wei says. “We believe things will pick up from the second half of 2023.”. It may be a bit optimistic from TSMC to call the slump in market demand a cyclical issue. Huang, the CFO, says “near-term uncertainties” will be considered when setting next year’s capex. But he didn’t give details. “Looking ahead to 2023, we will continue to be careful and manage our business prudently given near-term uncertainties. We will adjust and tighten our capex where appropriate,” CFO Huang says. So TSMC is not ruling out further capex cuts. TSMC’s Arizona and Kumamoto, Japan fabs are “on schedule,” Wei says. Wei says TSMC’s Nanjing plant has got “one-year authorization for 28nm expansion.”. TSMC will ensure full compliance with new US curbs, Wei says confidently. Impact from the new US restrictions on China trade is limited and manageable, TSMC says. TSMC is blaming falling demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips on weakening smartphone market. It’s too early to assess the impact of US restrictions, Wei says, adding the company will update investors when an assessment is available. It seems a growing number of non-Chinese chip makers have got exemptions from the US to continue operations in China. Besides TSMC and Samsung, US multinationals such as Micron and Intel also have plants in China. Some analysts seem to be surprised by TSMC’s guidance on lower utilization rate for later this year and weak demand for its 6nm and 7nm chips. But prolonged weakness in the global smartphone market means this shouldn’t be a surprise. To Debby’s point about TSMC pinning blame on the smartphone market -- 6nm and 7nm mobile chips aren’t Apple’s latest, which are made at 5nm. So TSMC is not talking about its most important customer when saying smartphones are weaker. Not necessarily, anyway.
Bottom-line: 완전히 결정된 사안은 아니나 리즈 트러스 총리의 감세안을 철회할 방법을 논의 중이라 소식에 정통한 사람으로부터 전해짐.
UK officials at No. 10 and the Treasury are discussing how they can back down from Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans for a massive unfunded package of tax cuts, according to a person familiar with their conversations. The officials are drafting options for Truss but no final decision has been taken and they are waiting for Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to return to London from Washington, where he has been attending meetings of the International Monetary Fund, the person said, asking not to be identified commenting on private discussions.
UK officials at No. 10 and the Treasury are discussing how they can back down from Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans for a massive unfunded package of tax cuts, according to a person familiar with their conversations. The officials are drafting options for Truss but no final decision has been taken and they are waiting for Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to return to London from Washington, where he has been attending meetings of the International Monetary Fund, the person said, asking not to be identified commenting on private discussions.
Bottom-line: 고용시장이 뜨겁고, 인플레이션 또한 뜨거운 상황. 이번 물가지표는 중앙은행이 금리를 추가적으로 얼마나 더 인상해야 하는지, 그리고 중간선거의 투표에 관해 중요한 데이터가 될 것임.
With the labor market still running hot, and inflation running even hotter, this month’s CPI report will be one of the last big sets of data before the Federal Reserve convenes to consider more rate hiking -- and before US voters head to the polls for midterm elections.
With the labor market still running hot, and inflation running even hotter, this month’s CPI report will be one of the last big sets of data before the Federal Reserve convenes to consider more rate hiking -- and before US voters head to the polls for midterm elections.
Wow. look at stock futures: contracts on the S&P 500 went from up 1.3% to now down more than 1%.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 75bp 금리인상은 선물시장에 100% 반영됨.
Fed Swaps Fully Price 75-Basis-Point Rate Hike in November.
Fed Swaps Fully Price 75-Basis-Point Rate Hike in November.
Bottom-line: 40년래 최고 수준의 인플레이션은 민주당에게 재앙이 될 것임.
For Democrats, this is a disaster. Today’s is the final CPI report ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election. You can bet that Republicans will be hitting this hard -- worst inflation in four decades.
For Democrats, this is a disaster. Today’s is the final CPI report ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election. You can bet that Republicans will be hitting this hard -- worst inflation in four decades.
Bottom-line: 선물시장은 중앙은행 정책 입안자들이 제시했던 수준보다 더 높은 수준의 최종금리로 수정해야 할 필요성이 있다는 것을 보여주고 있음.
Interest-rate futures show that traders think the Fed will need to raise rates even more than policymakers projected just last month. Contracts indicate a 4.65% peak in March 2023. Swaps are pricing in even more, at 4.85%. The median forecast of Fed policymakers last month was 4.6% for next year.
Interest-rate futures show that traders think the Fed will need to raise rates even more than policymakers projected just last month. Contracts indicate a 4.65% peak in March 2023. Swaps are pricing in even more, at 4.85%. The median forecast of Fed policymakers last month was 4.6% for next year.
Bottom-line: 작년 바이든 정부는 인플레이션의 원인에 대해 바이러스 대확산에 따른 영향을 받는 일부 요소 때문으로 지적했지만, 지금 데이터는 모든 범위에 인플레이션이 발생하고 있음.
It’s hard to escape concluding that the Fed really let the genie out of the inflation bottle. And while Biden administration officials last year were talking about how the increases in consumer prices were essentially just reflecting a few categories, like autos, that were affected by pandemic-hit supply-chain bottlenecks, it’s really broad-based now.
It’s hard to escape concluding that the Fed really let the genie out of the inflation bottle. And while Biden administration officials last year were talking about how the increases in consumer prices were essentially just reflecting a few categories, like autos, that were affected by pandemic-hit supply-chain bottlenecks, it’s really broad-based now.
Bottom-line: 8월과 9월 물가지표에서 각 항목을 분해한 것이며, 9월 상승한 부문이 훨씬 더 많다는 사실을 알 수 있음.
Showing August and September’s CPI report for the month-on-month change -- a lot more red in September.
Showing August and September’s CPI report for the month-on-month change -- a lot more red in September.
Docent: 반등에 의아할 수도 있음. 하지만 최근 기사들(VIX 150 레벨의 풋 옵션, 개별주식 풋 옵션 매수 100억 달러 거래)을 살펴보면 극단의 가격 변동에 대한 일부 헤지가 있었음. 물가지표 발표 이후 장 중 고점과 저점의 등락폭이 5% 범위인데, 기술적으로 바이러스 대확산 이후 -50%의 피보나치 되돌림 지점에서 풋 옵션 매수자들은 시장 중립적 포지션을 만들기 위해 수익 확정 후 주식 저가 매수, 일부 공매도 거래자들 또한 수익 확정 거래가 있었다고 추정함. 특히 40년래 최고치를 기록한 물가 수준을 가격이 상당 부분 반영했다는 해석도 있었을 것임.
US stocks roared back from losses sparked by a hot inflation reading on speculation the yearlong selloff had potentially reached a bottom. The S&P 500 closed up 2.6% after swinging more than 5% during a wild trading day. The benchmark clawed back more than 40% of the losses over a six-day selloff that took it to a two-year low. Technical levels factored into the bounce. At one point, the benchmark S&P 500 had given back 50% of its post-pandemic rally, triggering programmed buying. A wave of put options bought to protect against such a rout moved into the money, and as profits were booked, that prompted dealers to buy stocks to remain market neutral. A gauge of consumer price growth rose to a 40-year high last month, sealing the case for the Fed to deliver a large rate hike in November. Stocks plunged 25% this year before Thursday’s rebound, as the central bank tightened policy to curb inflation, leaving investors to weigh how much damage is left for share prices. “There may be some short covering going on, but also, a lot was priced in,” said Michael Contopoulos, director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “There has likely been a fair amount of defensive positioning lately in equities and on the rates side, higher policy rates means higher probability of a hard landing.”
US stocks roared back from losses sparked by a hot inflation reading on speculation the yearlong selloff had potentially reached a bottom. The S&P 500 closed up 2.6% after swinging more than 5% during a wild trading day. The benchmark clawed back more than 40% of the losses over a six-day selloff that took it to a two-year low. Technical levels factored into the bounce. At one point, the benchmark S&P 500 had given back 50% of its post-pandemic rally, triggering programmed buying. A wave of put options bought to protect against such a rout moved into the money, and as profits were booked, that prompted dealers to buy stocks to remain market neutral. A gauge of consumer price growth rose to a 40-year high last month, sealing the case for the Fed to deliver a large rate hike in November. Stocks plunged 25% this year before Thursday’s rebound, as the central bank tightened policy to curb inflation, leaving investors to weigh how much damage is left for share prices. “There may be some short covering going on, but also, a lot was priced in,” said Michael Contopoulos, director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “There has likely been a fair amount of defensive positioning lately in equities and on the rates side, higher policy rates means higher probability of a hard landing.”
Bottom-line: 만일 기계적인 추세추종 펀드의 매수 조건이 S&P 500 3,505포인트였거나, 혹은 공매도 포지션이 물가지표 발표 이후 큰 폭의 수익을 거뒀다면, 그것도 아니라면 누군가의 담보부족으로 인한 반대매매가 만든 하락이었을 수도 있음. 전자의 두 조건은 아무래도 상승 반전을 만들었을 것이며, 후자의 조건은 장 중 긴 하락을 만들었을 것임.
“If you had some levered CTA who had a big buy program set to start around 3,505 and then another levered short who doubled down on the CPI print that could have created this snowball where market just ripped as other levered technical systematic traders piled in,” Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI, said. “Or someone just got a fat margin call. We may find out after the dust settles.”.
“If you had some levered CTA who had a big buy program set to start around 3,505 and then another levered short who doubled down on the CPI print that could have created this snowball where market just ripped as other levered technical systematic traders piled in,” Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI, said. “Or someone just got a fat margin call. We may find out after the dust settles.”.
Docent: 한국형 헤지펀드에서도 펀드 기준가가 시장 변동성 대비 덜 민감하게 움직이는 펀드들이 많이 있음. 이들의 전략 구분은 대부분 'Multi Strategy'로 되어 있음. 유동화가 쉬운 자산이 아니고 자산에 대한 평가도 시장성과 다르기 때문에 지금과 같은 때 펀드의 어두운 손실을 완충하는 역할을 함. 이런 부동산,신용, 인프라, 헤지펀드와 같은 사모 폐쇄형 투자는 인플레이션과 금리로 고통받는 연기금 투자자들에게도 마찬가지 역할을 해주고 있음. 블룸버그가 폐쇄형 자산의 보유 내역을 공개하는 10대 펀드들을 분석해 본 결과, 일본, 캐나다 연금펀드에서부터 노르웨이, 중동과 같은 국부펀드에 이르기까지 7조 7천억 달러의 주식과 채권을 이런 폐쇄형 사모 투자로 옮겨놓고 있음을 알게 됨. 가장 극적인 변화는 중국인데, 금융위기 때 0%였던 폐쇄형 투자가 현재 절반에 가까운 비중에 이름. 한국의 국민연금 또한 대체투자에서 7.3% 수익을 거두면서 전체 손실을 -8%로 줄였음. 일본의 경우도 대체투자에서 3월말까지 동 기간 전체 포트폴리오 수익의 4배인 +21.4% 수익을 거둠.
A shift toward private markets is cushioning many of the world’s largest investors from the wreckage wrought by runaway inflation and spiraling interest rates. The big question now looming over giants from China’s $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund to California’s public pension, the largest in the US, is how long those private bets will remain insulated as the economic outlook darkens. The ten biggest global funds that disclose holdings in non-public markets doubled their combined weightings to assets such as private equity and credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds to about a quarter of their portfolios since the global financial crisis, according to a Bloomberg analysis of investment documents. The change has come largely at the expense of stocks and bonds for the $7.7 trillion group, which also spans pensions from Japan to Canada and sovereign funds from Norway to the Middle East. The most dramatic shift is by China Investment Corp., which has taken its exposure to private assets and hedge funds from virtually zero in 2008 to almost half its holdings, according to its most recent update. Private assets can be harder to sell and are subject to less frequent revaluations, but the global pivot has helped offset some ugly losses for these investors. Central banks unwinding years of loose monetary policy have wiped a quarter of value from global stocks and a fifth from bonds in 2022, with the prospect of even more pain ahead. US private equity, meanwhile, is forecast to deliver a greater return than the main asset classes over the next decade, according to data compiled by BlackRock Inc.. “Equities could have more downside from here and bonds may continue to face headwinds from rising rates,” said Kim Bowater, director of consulting at Frontier Advisors, which counsels investors representing nearly $400 billion in assets. “Having more components in the portfolio that behave in different ways can provide strong returns when traditional asset classes aren’t performing.”. A 7.1% gain for unlisted real estate helped Norway’s sovereign wealth fund limit its drop to 14.4% in the first half of this year. By comparison, global equities slumped 21% over the period and bonds fell 14%. The National Pension Service of Korea’s alternatives portfolio jumped 7.3%, reducing its overall loss to 8%. Japan’s mammoth Government Pension Investment Fund saw alternative investments return 21.4% in the year to the end of March, the most recent period of disclosed performance, four times as much as the broader portfolio.
A shift toward private markets is cushioning many of the world’s largest investors from the wreckage wrought by runaway inflation and spiraling interest rates. The big question now looming over giants from China’s $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund to California’s public pension, the largest in the US, is how long those private bets will remain insulated as the economic outlook darkens. The ten biggest global funds that disclose holdings in non-public markets doubled their combined weightings to assets such as private equity and credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds to about a quarter of their portfolios since the global financial crisis, according to a Bloomberg analysis of investment documents. The change has come largely at the expense of stocks and bonds for the $7.7 trillion group, which also spans pensions from Japan to Canada and sovereign funds from Norway to the Middle East. The most dramatic shift is by China Investment Corp., which has taken its exposure to private assets and hedge funds from virtually zero in 2008 to almost half its holdings, according to its most recent update. Private assets can be harder to sell and are subject to less frequent revaluations, but the global pivot has helped offset some ugly losses for these investors. Central banks unwinding years of loose monetary policy have wiped a quarter of value from global stocks and a fifth from bonds in 2022, with the prospect of even more pain ahead. US private equity, meanwhile, is forecast to deliver a greater return than the main asset classes over the next decade, according to data compiled by BlackRock Inc.. “Equities could have more downside from here and bonds may continue to face headwinds from rising rates,” said Kim Bowater, director of consulting at Frontier Advisors, which counsels investors representing nearly $400 billion in assets. “Having more components in the portfolio that behave in different ways can provide strong returns when traditional asset classes aren’t performing.”. A 7.1% gain for unlisted real estate helped Norway’s sovereign wealth fund limit its drop to 14.4% in the first half of this year. By comparison, global equities slumped 21% over the period and bonds fell 14%. The National Pension Service of Korea’s alternatives portfolio jumped 7.3%, reducing its overall loss to 8%. Japan’s mammoth Government Pension Investment Fund saw alternative investments return 21.4% in the year to the end of March, the most recent period of disclosed performance, four times as much as the broader portfolio.