Bottom-line: 만일 기계적인 추세추종 펀드의 매수 조건이 S&P 500 3,505포인트였거나, 혹은 공매도 포지션이 물가지표 발표 이후 큰 폭의 수익을 거뒀다면, 그것도 아니라면 누군가의 담보부족으로 인한 반대매매가 만든 하락이었을 수도 있음. 전자의 두 조건은 아무래도 상승 반전을 만들었을 것이며, 후자의 조건은 장 중 긴 하락을 만들었을 것임.
“If you had some levered CTA who had a big buy program set to start around 3,505 and then another levered short who doubled down on the CPI print that could have created this snowball where market just ripped as other levered technical systematic traders piled in,” Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI, said. “Or someone just got a fat margin call. We may find out after the dust settles.”.
“If you had some levered CTA who had a big buy program set to start around 3,505 and then another levered short who doubled down on the CPI print that could have created this snowball where market just ripped as other levered technical systematic traders piled in,” Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI, said. “Or someone just got a fat margin call. We may find out after the dust settles.”.
Docent: 한국형 헤지펀드에서도 펀드 기준가가 시장 변동성 대비 덜 민감하게 움직이는 펀드들이 많이 있음. 이들의 전략 구분은 대부분 'Multi Strategy'로 되어 있음. 유동화가 쉬운 자산이 아니고 자산에 대한 평가도 시장성과 다르기 때문에 지금과 같은 때 펀드의 어두운 손실을 완충하는 역할을 함. 이런 부동산,신용, 인프라, 헤지펀드와 같은 사모 폐쇄형 투자는 인플레이션과 금리로 고통받는 연기금 투자자들에게도 마찬가지 역할을 해주고 있음. 블룸버그가 폐쇄형 자산의 보유 내역을 공개하는 10대 펀드들을 분석해 본 결과, 일본, 캐나다 연금펀드에서부터 노르웨이, 중동과 같은 국부펀드에 이르기까지 7조 7천억 달러의 주식과 채권을 이런 폐쇄형 사모 투자로 옮겨놓고 있음을 알게 됨. 가장 극적인 변화는 중국인데, 금융위기 때 0%였던 폐쇄형 투자가 현재 절반에 가까운 비중에 이름. 한국의 국민연금 또한 대체투자에서 7.3% 수익을 거두면서 전체 손실을 -8%로 줄였음. 일본의 경우도 대체투자에서 3월말까지 동 기간 전체 포트폴리오 수익의 4배인 +21.4% 수익을 거둠.
A shift toward private markets is cushioning many of the world’s largest investors from the wreckage wrought by runaway inflation and spiraling interest rates. The big question now looming over giants from China’s $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund to California’s public pension, the largest in the US, is how long those private bets will remain insulated as the economic outlook darkens. The ten biggest global funds that disclose holdings in non-public markets doubled their combined weightings to assets such as private equity and credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds to about a quarter of their portfolios since the global financial crisis, according to a Bloomberg analysis of investment documents. The change has come largely at the expense of stocks and bonds for the $7.7 trillion group, which also spans pensions from Japan to Canada and sovereign funds from Norway to the Middle East. The most dramatic shift is by China Investment Corp., which has taken its exposure to private assets and hedge funds from virtually zero in 2008 to almost half its holdings, according to its most recent update. Private assets can be harder to sell and are subject to less frequent revaluations, but the global pivot has helped offset some ugly losses for these investors. Central banks unwinding years of loose monetary policy have wiped a quarter of value from global stocks and a fifth from bonds in 2022, with the prospect of even more pain ahead. US private equity, meanwhile, is forecast to deliver a greater return than the main asset classes over the next decade, according to data compiled by BlackRock Inc.. “Equities could have more downside from here and bonds may continue to face headwinds from rising rates,” said Kim Bowater, director of consulting at Frontier Advisors, which counsels investors representing nearly $400 billion in assets. “Having more components in the portfolio that behave in different ways can provide strong returns when traditional asset classes aren’t performing.”. A 7.1% gain for unlisted real estate helped Norway’s sovereign wealth fund limit its drop to 14.4% in the first half of this year. By comparison, global equities slumped 21% over the period and bonds fell 14%. The National Pension Service of Korea’s alternatives portfolio jumped 7.3%, reducing its overall loss to 8%. Japan’s mammoth Government Pension Investment Fund saw alternative investments return 21.4% in the year to the end of March, the most recent period of disclosed performance, four times as much as the broader portfolio.
A shift toward private markets is cushioning many of the world’s largest investors from the wreckage wrought by runaway inflation and spiraling interest rates. The big question now looming over giants from China’s $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund to California’s public pension, the largest in the US, is how long those private bets will remain insulated as the economic outlook darkens. The ten biggest global funds that disclose holdings in non-public markets doubled their combined weightings to assets such as private equity and credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds to about a quarter of their portfolios since the global financial crisis, according to a Bloomberg analysis of investment documents. The change has come largely at the expense of stocks and bonds for the $7.7 trillion group, which also spans pensions from Japan to Canada and sovereign funds from Norway to the Middle East. The most dramatic shift is by China Investment Corp., which has taken its exposure to private assets and hedge funds from virtually zero in 2008 to almost half its holdings, according to its most recent update. Private assets can be harder to sell and are subject to less frequent revaluations, but the global pivot has helped offset some ugly losses for these investors. Central banks unwinding years of loose monetary policy have wiped a quarter of value from global stocks and a fifth from bonds in 2022, with the prospect of even more pain ahead. US private equity, meanwhile, is forecast to deliver a greater return than the main asset classes over the next decade, according to data compiled by BlackRock Inc.. “Equities could have more downside from here and bonds may continue to face headwinds from rising rates,” said Kim Bowater, director of consulting at Frontier Advisors, which counsels investors representing nearly $400 billion in assets. “Having more components in the portfolio that behave in different ways can provide strong returns when traditional asset classes aren’t performing.”. A 7.1% gain for unlisted real estate helped Norway’s sovereign wealth fund limit its drop to 14.4% in the first half of this year. By comparison, global equities slumped 21% over the period and bonds fell 14%. The National Pension Service of Korea’s alternatives portfolio jumped 7.3%, reducing its overall loss to 8%. Japan’s mammoth Government Pension Investment Fund saw alternative investments return 21.4% in the year to the end of March, the most recent period of disclosed performance, four times as much as the broader portfolio.
Bottom-line: 중고시계 거래 시장에서 롤렉스, 파텍필립, 오데마피게는 전체 거래규모의 71%를 차지함. 올해 4월 고점 이후 롤렉스는 -21% 하락했고, 파텍필립과 오데마피게 또한 고점에서 각각 -19%, -15% 하락함. 주 된 이유는 급격한 공급 증가 때문이며, 모건스탠리는 지속적인 재고 증가와 악화되는 경제환경을 감안할 때 거래 가격은 추가로 하락할 것으로 봄.
Prices for the most popular pre-owned Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches will fall further as the market has been flooded with supply, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report. After surging in 2021 and during the first quarter of 2022, an index of the most popular models from Daytona chronograph maker Rolex tracked by WatchCharts has fallen by 21% since the market peak in April. Prices for the most popular Nautilus-maker Patek Philippe references are down an average of 19% on the secondary market while those for Audemars Piguet, the maker of the Royal Oak, have declined 15% since the peak. Prices will likely keep falling due to a “dramatic” increase in supply, Morgan Stanley analysts including Edouard Aubin said in the report.
“We have noticed a significant increase of watch inventory in the secondary watch market year to date as a result of secondhand watch dealers and individual watch investors off-loading their stocks,” Morgan Stanley said. “Given the current watch inventory for sale and the worsening macro backdrop, we would expect second hand prices to contract further quarter over quarter.”. The most in-demand models of the ‘big three’ - Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet - account for a significant 71% of of the total traded value of the secondary luxury watch market. Prices for the WatchCharts overall market index, which includes other brands, fell by 9% in the third quarter this year compared to the second quarter.
Prices for the most popular pre-owned Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches will fall further as the market has been flooded with supply, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report. After surging in 2021 and during the first quarter of 2022, an index of the most popular models from Daytona chronograph maker Rolex tracked by WatchCharts has fallen by 21% since the market peak in April. Prices for the most popular Nautilus-maker Patek Philippe references are down an average of 19% on the secondary market while those for Audemars Piguet, the maker of the Royal Oak, have declined 15% since the peak. Prices will likely keep falling due to a “dramatic” increase in supply, Morgan Stanley analysts including Edouard Aubin said in the report.
“We have noticed a significant increase of watch inventory in the secondary watch market year to date as a result of secondhand watch dealers and individual watch investors off-loading their stocks,” Morgan Stanley said. “Given the current watch inventory for sale and the worsening macro backdrop, we would expect second hand prices to contract further quarter over quarter.”. The most in-demand models of the ‘big three’ - Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet - account for a significant 71% of of the total traded value of the secondary luxury watch market. Prices for the WatchCharts overall market index, which includes other brands, fell by 9% in the third quarter this year compared to the second quarter.
Docent: 이 기사는 도슨트 역할이 필요할 것 같음. 우선적으로 채권의 금리는 평상 시 경제전망을 반영하기 때문에, 경기 악화로 주가가 하락할 때 같이 떨어짐. 채권의 가격은 채권의 금리와 반대로 상승하기 때문에 결론적으로 주식의 하락을 채권 가격 상승이 보존하는 구조임. 하지만 인플레이션과 통화정책이 주가를 하락하게 만드는 동안 채권 금리도 상승하게 만들어, 채권 가격도 떨어짐. 이런 상황이다 보니 15년래 가장 드문 주식과 채권 모두 공매도가 쌓인 시장이 됨. 그래서 어제 시장의 급격한 반등을 이렇게 유추할 수 있음. i) 주가보다 채권 금리가 앞서 빠진 것은 채권 공매도 포지션의 수익 실현, ii) 위험을 등가로 배분하는 펀드(Risk Parity)는 이 자금으로 주식을 매수, iii) 주식 공매도 포지션의 수익 실현, iv) 콜 옵션 매도 상태에서 시장 상승을 주가지수선물 매수로 헤지해야 하는 딜러들의 폭발적 매수 거래. 이런 흐름으로 수직 상승에 가까운 주가 탄력이 발생했지만, 이것이 전형적인 주가 저점 형성의 모양은 아님.
The 10-year yield started to fall before S&P futures started to bounce. CTAs and macro funds may have been the culprits. We can infer their likely positioning and it looks like they were short both stocks and bonds. That has been a very rare occurrence over the last 15 years, but it’s now more likely as inflation causes stocks and bonds to trade with greater positive correlation. Short covering in bonds therefore probably caused these funds to start buying stocks. Not only was the market very short index futures, there has been a rise in call buying in recent days. This is part of a general pattern this year where the volatility on calls has been rising versus the volatility on puts, leading to very low put-call skew. The combination of short covering, and option dealers frantically having to hedge calls they have sold by buying the market as it rises, led to a near vertical rise in stock prices. This, though, is not a well-functioning market. And while yesterday may mark an interim bottom, it was not marked by several of the usual characteristics of a secular low.
The 10-year yield started to fall before S&P futures started to bounce. CTAs and macro funds may have been the culprits. We can infer their likely positioning and it looks like they were short both stocks and bonds. That has been a very rare occurrence over the last 15 years, but it’s now more likely as inflation causes stocks and bonds to trade with greater positive correlation. Short covering in bonds therefore probably caused these funds to start buying stocks. Not only was the market very short index futures, there has been a rise in call buying in recent days. This is part of a general pattern this year where the volatility on calls has been rising versus the volatility on puts, leading to very low put-call skew. The combination of short covering, and option dealers frantically having to hedge calls they have sold by buying the market as it rises, led to a near vertical rise in stock prices. This, though, is not a well-functioning market. And while yesterday may mark an interim bottom, it was not marked by several of the usual characteristics of a secular low.
Bottom-line: 내년 3월 변동성 지수가 150에 이를 것이란데 베팅한 대량의 콜 옵션 매수 이후 일주일, 또 다시 내년 4월 변동성 지수가 100에 이를 것이라는데 4백만 달러, 7만 계약의 대량매매가 이뤄짐.
A week after someone bet that the stock market’s chief volatility gauge could rise to 150, another big doom-and-gloom wager hit the tape. Shortly after 1 p.m. a trader used options to put on a wager that the Cboe Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, could jump to 100 by April, up from its current level of around 32. The trader appeared to have bought 70,000 call contracts through a series of block trades, spending a total of $4 million.
A week after someone bet that the stock market’s chief volatility gauge could rise to 150, another big doom-and-gloom wager hit the tape. Shortly after 1 p.m. a trader used options to put on a wager that the Cboe Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, could jump to 100 by April, up from its current level of around 32. The trader appeared to have bought 70,000 call contracts through a series of block trades, spending a total of $4 million.
Bottom-line: 캐시우드의 대표 상장지수펀드가 5영업일 연속 하락하며 -9.4% 손실을 입었고, 5주 연속 하락하며 작년 최고 가격에서 -78% 손실을 기록함. 달러 강세에 압박받는 위험자산, 높은 인플레이션과 계속적인 긴축 기조의 중앙은행의 환경은 높은 성장률에서 주 된 가치평가를 받던 주식에 일관되게 부정적 영향을 미치고 있음. 캐시 우드는 중앙은행의 정책 오류에 대해 공개적으로 우려를 표명했으며, 투자자들에게는 최소 5년의 장기적 기간을 두고 성과를 평가해주길 바랬음.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund on Friday closed at its lowest level in five years, after suffering a 78% plunge from last year’s highs. The ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) dropped 5.7%, finishing the day at $33.99 per share. The fund fell roughly 9.4% over the five-day stretch, its fifth straight weekly decline. “Nothing has changed in the larger macro backdrop -- a strong dollar is pressuring risk assets, inflation keeps surprising on the upside, rates are sticky and the Fed has to keep tightening,” said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas Securities. “All of that is a bad combo for high-growth stocks.”. The year hasn’t been kind to the $6.7 billion ETF, as top holdings like Tesla Inc. and Zoom Video Communications Inc. were pummeled. Growth-oriented assets, like tech stocks or retail-trading favorite Tesla, have tanked as the Federal Reserve raises rates to knock down scorching levels of inflation. Wood took the central bank to task this week for its aggressive tightening campaign, penning an open letter to officials to express concern that they could be making a policy error. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Wood said the current risk-off environment means investors are looking for safety in passive benchmark-tracking products and failing to recognize that her fund’s investments are positioned for the long haul. Wood and her firm have often said they are focused on at least a five-year investment horizon.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund on Friday closed at its lowest level in five years, after suffering a 78% plunge from last year’s highs. The ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) dropped 5.7%, finishing the day at $33.99 per share. The fund fell roughly 9.4% over the five-day stretch, its fifth straight weekly decline. “Nothing has changed in the larger macro backdrop -- a strong dollar is pressuring risk assets, inflation keeps surprising on the upside, rates are sticky and the Fed has to keep tightening,” said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas Securities. “All of that is a bad combo for high-growth stocks.”. The year hasn’t been kind to the $6.7 billion ETF, as top holdings like Tesla Inc. and Zoom Video Communications Inc. were pummeled. Growth-oriented assets, like tech stocks or retail-trading favorite Tesla, have tanked as the Federal Reserve raises rates to knock down scorching levels of inflation. Wood took the central bank to task this week for its aggressive tightening campaign, penning an open letter to officials to express concern that they could be making a policy error. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Wood said the current risk-off environment means investors are looking for safety in passive benchmark-tracking products and failing to recognize that her fund’s investments are positioned for the long haul. Wood and her firm have often said they are focused on at least a five-year investment horizon.
Docent: 6%의 최종금리. 이번에도 도슨트가 필요해 보임. 중앙은행이 최종금리를 어디까지 올릴지 의문이 크고, 또 어떤 경우 가장 최근 점도표에서 제시 된 최종금리에 근접함에 희망을 가지기도 함. 그런데, 우리는 3월 금리인상이 시작 됐을 때 최종금리는 단 2.8%에 불과했고, 10월 현재 5%에 이르고 있음을 주지할 필요가 있음. 실업률과 물가는 반비례 한다는 가장 원초적인 이론 상에서 이 기사는 인플레이션이 안정되는 수준의 자연 실업률(u* 혹은 NAIRU)을 중앙은행이 과소계상 하고 있다면 어떻겠냐는 질문을 던짐. 일례로 9월 통화정책회의에서 경기침체 위험에도 불구 금리인상의 지속성 강조한 근거에는 그들이 추정하는 자연 실업률의 상향에 있음. 9월에 제시 된 점도표 상 정책금리를 역산하면 자연 실업률은 2022년 4.4%, 2023년과 2024년 4.3%, 2025년 4.0%이며, 이는 일시적 자연 실업률 상승 이후 재차 하락으로 본 것임. 최근 일부 인사들은 자연 실업률을 5%~6%로 추정하기 시작했음. 파월 의장 또한 이것이 상승하기 시작했다고 발언했음. 만일 인플레이션에 대한 예측이 지금과 같고 자연 실업률을 5%로 본다면, 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리는 6%가 됨.
When the Fed began raising rates in March, markets were pricing in a terminal rate of just 2.8%. As of mid-October, that has risen to 5% -- matching the forecast Bloomberg Economics set out in July. Could they be forced to do even more? Absolutely. If the Fed is underestimating the natural rate of unemployment, or if the pandemic has resulted in a significant deterioration in productivity, a terminal rate of 6% could come into view. There are also risks in the other direction, even if they’re less likely. It would take a lot more than the shocks to date, but a prolonged period of market mayhem -- of the sort seen after the UK’s September fiscal fumble -- might persuade the Fed to halt at a lower rate. At its September meeting, the FOMC’s dot plot showed a higher trajectory of rate hikes, despite a deterioration in the growth outlook. A simple explanation for this anomaly is that the committee’s estimate of u* -- alternatively termed NAIRU, or the unemployment rate associated with price stability -- has risen from the traditional 4%. The Bloomberg Economics rule -- a modification of the classic Taylor rule that captures the relationship between unemployment, inflation, and Fed policy -- can be used to back out an estimate of where the FOMC now puts u*. The u* values that best fit the September dot plot are 4.4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 2024, and 4.0% in 2025. That suggests the FOMC sees u* as temporarily elevated, and expects it to gradually fall back to the pre-pandemic norm in 2025. What if u* is even higher? A recent estimate by Fed staff put it in the 5%-6% range. Given the wrenching dislocations in labor markets that have resulted from the pandemic -- with both companies and workers rethinking their priorities -- that’s entirely plausible. Chair Jerome Powell himself said the natural rate of unemployment has “moved up materially.”. Holding the committee’s inflation forecast constant, a u* estimate of 5% would mean a terminal rate of 6%.
When the Fed began raising rates in March, markets were pricing in a terminal rate of just 2.8%. As of mid-October, that has risen to 5% -- matching the forecast Bloomberg Economics set out in July. Could they be forced to do even more? Absolutely. If the Fed is underestimating the natural rate of unemployment, or if the pandemic has resulted in a significant deterioration in productivity, a terminal rate of 6% could come into view. There are also risks in the other direction, even if they’re less likely. It would take a lot more than the shocks to date, but a prolonged period of market mayhem -- of the sort seen after the UK’s September fiscal fumble -- might persuade the Fed to halt at a lower rate. At its September meeting, the FOMC’s dot plot showed a higher trajectory of rate hikes, despite a deterioration in the growth outlook. A simple explanation for this anomaly is that the committee’s estimate of u* -- alternatively termed NAIRU, or the unemployment rate associated with price stability -- has risen from the traditional 4%. The Bloomberg Economics rule -- a modification of the classic Taylor rule that captures the relationship between unemployment, inflation, and Fed policy -- can be used to back out an estimate of where the FOMC now puts u*. The u* values that best fit the September dot plot are 4.4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 2024, and 4.0% in 2025. That suggests the FOMC sees u* as temporarily elevated, and expects it to gradually fall back to the pre-pandemic norm in 2025. What if u* is even higher? A recent estimate by Fed staff put it in the 5%-6% range. Given the wrenching dislocations in labor markets that have resulted from the pandemic -- with both companies and workers rethinking their priorities -- that’s entirely plausible. Chair Jerome Powell himself said the natural rate of unemployment has “moved up materially.”. Holding the committee’s inflation forecast constant, a u* estimate of 5% would mean a terminal rate of 6%.
Bottom-line: 런던에는 하나 당 65만 달러의 가치를 금괴 5만개가 은행 네트워크 시스템 하에서 24시간 7일 내도록 거래되고 있음. 이런 시스템은 지난 20년 간 큰 변화없이 이어왔음. 금융 스트레스가 커질 때 되려 금이 생각보다 거래가 편치 못하고, 바뀐 규제들로 인해 은행이 금을 보유하는 비용이 증가하고 거래 수익과 시장 축소 등의 우려에 직면하고 있음. 현재 로비 단체들은 현행 거래를 금에 대응하는 디지털 토큰 발행을 통해 블록체인으로 전세계 모든 금 거래를 시스템화 하면 시장이 활황이 될 것으로 기대하고 있지만, 지금까지 작은 변화의 시도조차 무산 된 경우가 많아 10월 16일 컨퍼런스에 모인 참가자들은 회의적임. 근래 금은 주식, 채권, 현금의 대안을 찾는 투자자들에게 비트코인과 경쟁관계에 놓여있고 혹자는 비트코인을 ‘디지털 금’이라 칭함.
Trading on one of the world’s oldest markets depends on a network of high-security vaults located underneath Greater London. There, some 50,000 gold bars, each worth more than $650,000, change hands every day among the four big banks in charge of processing transactions. The system, which includes some $500 billion worth of gold stored in locations, has been trundling along with little change for most of the past two decades. David Tait, who heads the World Gold Council, the main lobby group for miners of the metal, thinks it’s time for an overhaul. The former investment banker is trying to push through changes he hopes will significantly increase demand, including a database using blockchain technology to keep track of almost every gold bar in the world. Once that’s up and running, he says, it should be possible to create a digital token backed by physical gold that can be more easily traded. Market players gathering for a conference on Oct. 16 are skeptical the proposed overhaul will get off the ground, because previous attempts to make even small changes to the market have fallen flat. But the package of changes, dubbed Gold 247 (for 24/7), has taken on fresh urgency. Post-financial crisis banking reforms began to affect gold this year after market participants were unable to prove that the asset could easily be traded in stressful times. The new rules, in effect, made it more expensive for banks to hold bullion, compressing the already meager returns they make trading the commodity, and raising concerns the market will shrink. And in the past decade, gold has faced growing competition from cryptocurrencies for the attention of investors looking for alternatives to stocks, bonds, and cash—with some boosters even calling Bitcoin “digital gold.”.
Trading on one of the world’s oldest markets depends on a network of high-security vaults located underneath Greater London. There, some 50,000 gold bars, each worth more than $650,000, change hands every day among the four big banks in charge of processing transactions. The system, which includes some $500 billion worth of gold stored in locations, has been trundling along with little change for most of the past two decades. David Tait, who heads the World Gold Council, the main lobby group for miners of the metal, thinks it’s time for an overhaul. The former investment banker is trying to push through changes he hopes will significantly increase demand, including a database using blockchain technology to keep track of almost every gold bar in the world. Once that’s up and running, he says, it should be possible to create a digital token backed by physical gold that can be more easily traded. Market players gathering for a conference on Oct. 16 are skeptical the proposed overhaul will get off the ground, because previous attempts to make even small changes to the market have fallen flat. But the package of changes, dubbed Gold 247 (for 24/7), has taken on fresh urgency. Post-financial crisis banking reforms began to affect gold this year after market participants were unable to prove that the asset could easily be traded in stressful times. The new rules, in effect, made it more expensive for banks to hold bullion, compressing the already meager returns they make trading the commodity, and raising concerns the market will shrink. And in the past decade, gold has faced growing competition from cryptocurrencies for the attention of investors looking for alternatives to stocks, bonds, and cash—with some boosters even calling Bitcoin “digital gold.”.
Bottom-line: 경기 침체가 눈 앞에 보이고, 인플레이션과 높아진 금리의 부채 때문에 모두가 안전자산을 향하지만, 금 조차도 올해 -9% 하락했음. 이런 상황에서 예술품을 볼 가치가 있는가? 런던 전시회에 붐비는 사람들을 보면 그렇다고 생각하는 것 같음. 작품들은 권리로 인해 침체로부터 보호 받으며, 이들의 구입자는 대부분 높은 부를 축적한 부유층인 경우가 많기 때문에 가격이 보존되고 있음. 실제로 예술품 경매를 추적하는 지수는 S&P 500 지수가 -25% 이상 하락한 상황에서 되려 +50% 이상 상승했음. 물론 이 지수는 성공 한 경매를 다루고 미술품 시장의 절반도 대변하지 못하지만, 적어도 이 시장의 분위기는 좋다는 것을 알 수 있음. 이런 예술품 투자에 있어 피카소, 모네, 바스키아는 안정적인 블루칩 투자로 여겨지며, 일생에 단 한 번의 구매 기회조차 어려울 수 있음. 이런 주류 투자는 매우 높은 가격에 거래 될 뿐 아니라 유동성이 떨어짐. 자본의 여유가 없을 경우 예술품을 분할하여 소유하는 방법도 있음. 이는 투자자들이 바스키아 작품의 일부를 소유하는 권리를 가지게 해 자산 포트폴리오 다각화에 도움을 주지만, 작품을 소장하고자 하는 사람에겐 유옹하지 않음. 또 다른 옵션은 좋아하는 예술품을 구입하고 다른 곳에서 투자 기회를 찾는 것임. 이런 저런 소음이 가득하지만, 장기적으로 주가지수에 투자했을 때 수익을 잊지 말아야 할 것임.
Investors cope with recessions, inflation and high-cost debt. Havens are few and far between. Even gold is down 9 per cent year to date. Could the art market be worth a look?. Punters in the enormous snaking queue that formed for the London Frieze art fair certainly seem to think so — although the split between collectors and socialites has yet to be established. By rights, art should be shielded from the worst of the economic headwinds: collectors tend to be wealthy and to fund their purchases from income or savings. Indeed, recent auctions seem to bear this out. Combined sales from the top three houses were up more than 20 per cent in the first half of the year, according to an upcoming survey by Clare McAndrew of Art Economics. And the ArtBnK index, which tracks the price fetched by active artists, has risen more than 50 per cent, compared with a decline of almost a quarter for the S&P 500. All these indicators have their limits. Auctions are less than half of the art market. Indices that track them only count successes: no allowance is made for the lots that get pulled or remain unsold. And, of course, every artwork is different. The price that it fetches may say more about its size, colour or quality than it does about the state of the market. That said, the mood music is still remarkably positive. The blue chips of the art world — the Picassos, Monets and Basquiats — are widely assumed to be the safest bet. Buying them may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. And going mainstream is a natural way for investors to try to limit the risk of these expensive and illiquid asset purchases. But where does that leave the rather more modest collector, the one without hundreds of millions of pounds to spare?. Enter fractional ownership models: these give investors the chance to own a bit of a Basquiat, and sell it on without the underlying artwork changing hands. Useful for those wishing to diversify their assets — but less so for those who want a painting. Another option might be to buy art one likes, and look elsewhere for investment opportunities. For all the buzz over collectable asset classes, it is easy to forget that over the past decade the S&P outperformed them by miles — even after its recent decline.
Investors cope with recessions, inflation and high-cost debt. Havens are few and far between. Even gold is down 9 per cent year to date. Could the art market be worth a look?. Punters in the enormous snaking queue that formed for the London Frieze art fair certainly seem to think so — although the split between collectors and socialites has yet to be established. By rights, art should be shielded from the worst of the economic headwinds: collectors tend to be wealthy and to fund their purchases from income or savings. Indeed, recent auctions seem to bear this out. Combined sales from the top three houses were up more than 20 per cent in the first half of the year, according to an upcoming survey by Clare McAndrew of Art Economics. And the ArtBnK index, which tracks the price fetched by active artists, has risen more than 50 per cent, compared with a decline of almost a quarter for the S&P 500. All these indicators have their limits. Auctions are less than half of the art market. Indices that track them only count successes: no allowance is made for the lots that get pulled or remain unsold. And, of course, every artwork is different. The price that it fetches may say more about its size, colour or quality than it does about the state of the market. That said, the mood music is still remarkably positive. The blue chips of the art world — the Picassos, Monets and Basquiats — are widely assumed to be the safest bet. Buying them may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. And going mainstream is a natural way for investors to try to limit the risk of these expensive and illiquid asset purchases. But where does that leave the rather more modest collector, the one without hundreds of millions of pounds to spare?. Enter fractional ownership models: these give investors the chance to own a bit of a Basquiat, and sell it on without the underlying artwork changing hands. Useful for those wishing to diversify their assets — but less so for those who want a painting. Another option might be to buy art one likes, and look elsewhere for investment opportunities. For all the buzz over collectable asset classes, it is easy to forget that over the past decade the S&P outperformed them by miles — even after its recent decline.
최근 대량의 옵션 거래가 많은데, 이에 대해 과거 매크로 펀드를 운용하면서 옵션의 역할을 어떻게 해석하면 좋을지 적어놓았던 글이 있어 올립니다.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 저평가 상태의 주식을 염가에 매수하려는 투자자라면 현금흐름을 창출하거나, 가치지표로 볼 때 매력적이거나, 수익성이 높아지거나, 또는 큰 폭으로 하락해 있는 중소형주나 경기순환주에 주목할 것을 권고함. 특히 가치지표로 볼 때 저평가 상태에 있거나 현금흐름이 좋은 기업은 이익회수기간(주가수익비율의 역수)이 길거나 높은 성장률의 성장주 대비 매력적으로 보인다고 평가함. 중소형주의 경우 대형주 대비 역사적 상대 저평가에 있음. 골드만삭스가 연말 목표치로 전망 한 S&P 500 지수 수준인 3,600 포인트를 현재 하회하고 있지만, 반대로 경기가 경착륙할 경우 지수 수준인 3,150에는 10% 이상 위에서 거래되고 있음.
Goldman Sachs sees some attractive opportunities in quicker cash flow-earners, value stocks, profitable growth firms, “depressed” cyclicals and small caps for US investors looking for bargains. Value stocks and firms earning cash flows immediately look attractive relative to long duration and growth stocks, strategists including David J. Kostin wrote in a note dated Oct. 14. Profitable growth stocks trading at bargain valuations include Exelixis, Meta. Cyclical stocks that are cheap even in the case of a recession include PulteGroup, Toll Brothers and Mosaic. S&P Small Cap 600 Index “trades at a historically large discount” to S&P 500 Index. S&P 500 is trading below Goldman’s base-case year-end target of 3,600, more than 10% away from a hard landing scenario target of 3,150.
Goldman Sachs sees some attractive opportunities in quicker cash flow-earners, value stocks, profitable growth firms, “depressed” cyclicals and small caps for US investors looking for bargains. Value stocks and firms earning cash flows immediately look attractive relative to long duration and growth stocks, strategists including David J. Kostin wrote in a note dated Oct. 14. Profitable growth stocks trading at bargain valuations include Exelixis, Meta. Cyclical stocks that are cheap even in the case of a recession include PulteGroup, Toll Brothers and Mosaic. S&P Small Cap 600 Index “trades at a historically large discount” to S&P 500 Index. S&P 500 is trading below Goldman’s base-case year-end target of 3,600, more than 10% away from a hard landing scenario target of 3,150.