Bottom-line: 40년래 최고 수준의 인플레이션은 민주당에게 재앙이 될 것임.
For Democrats, this is a disaster. Today’s is the final CPI report ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election. You can bet that Republicans will be hitting this hard -- worst inflation in four decades.
For Democrats, this is a disaster. Today’s is the final CPI report ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm election. You can bet that Republicans will be hitting this hard -- worst inflation in four decades.
Bottom-line: 선물시장은 중앙은행 정책 입안자들이 제시했던 수준보다 더 높은 수준의 최종금리로 수정해야 할 필요성이 있다는 것을 보여주고 있음.
Interest-rate futures show that traders think the Fed will need to raise rates even more than policymakers projected just last month. Contracts indicate a 4.65% peak in March 2023. Swaps are pricing in even more, at 4.85%. The median forecast of Fed policymakers last month was 4.6% for next year.
Interest-rate futures show that traders think the Fed will need to raise rates even more than policymakers projected just last month. Contracts indicate a 4.65% peak in March 2023. Swaps are pricing in even more, at 4.85%. The median forecast of Fed policymakers last month was 4.6% for next year.
Bottom-line: 작년 바이든 정부는 인플레이션의 원인에 대해 바이러스 대확산에 따른 영향을 받는 일부 요소 때문으로 지적했지만, 지금 데이터는 모든 범위에 인플레이션이 발생하고 있음.
It’s hard to escape concluding that the Fed really let the genie out of the inflation bottle. And while Biden administration officials last year were talking about how the increases in consumer prices were essentially just reflecting a few categories, like autos, that were affected by pandemic-hit supply-chain bottlenecks, it’s really broad-based now.
It’s hard to escape concluding that the Fed really let the genie out of the inflation bottle. And while Biden administration officials last year were talking about how the increases in consumer prices were essentially just reflecting a few categories, like autos, that were affected by pandemic-hit supply-chain bottlenecks, it’s really broad-based now.
Bottom-line: 8월과 9월 물가지표에서 각 항목을 분해한 것이며, 9월 상승한 부문이 훨씬 더 많다는 사실을 알 수 있음.
Showing August and September’s CPI report for the month-on-month change -- a lot more red in September.
Showing August and September’s CPI report for the month-on-month change -- a lot more red in September.
Docent: 반등에 의아할 수도 있음. 하지만 최근 기사들(VIX 150 레벨의 풋 옵션, 개별주식 풋 옵션 매수 100억 달러 거래)을 살펴보면 극단의 가격 변동에 대한 일부 헤지가 있었음. 물가지표 발표 이후 장 중 고점과 저점의 등락폭이 5% 범위인데, 기술적으로 바이러스 대확산 이후 -50%의 피보나치 되돌림 지점에서 풋 옵션 매수자들은 시장 중립적 포지션을 만들기 위해 수익 확정 후 주식 저가 매수, 일부 공매도 거래자들 또한 수익 확정 거래가 있었다고 추정함. 특히 40년래 최고치를 기록한 물가 수준을 가격이 상당 부분 반영했다는 해석도 있었을 것임.
US stocks roared back from losses sparked by a hot inflation reading on speculation the yearlong selloff had potentially reached a bottom. The S&P 500 closed up 2.6% after swinging more than 5% during a wild trading day. The benchmark clawed back more than 40% of the losses over a six-day selloff that took it to a two-year low. Technical levels factored into the bounce. At one point, the benchmark S&P 500 had given back 50% of its post-pandemic rally, triggering programmed buying. A wave of put options bought to protect against such a rout moved into the money, and as profits were booked, that prompted dealers to buy stocks to remain market neutral. A gauge of consumer price growth rose to a 40-year high last month, sealing the case for the Fed to deliver a large rate hike in November. Stocks plunged 25% this year before Thursday’s rebound, as the central bank tightened policy to curb inflation, leaving investors to weigh how much damage is left for share prices. “There may be some short covering going on, but also, a lot was priced in,” said Michael Contopoulos, director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “There has likely been a fair amount of defensive positioning lately in equities and on the rates side, higher policy rates means higher probability of a hard landing.”
US stocks roared back from losses sparked by a hot inflation reading on speculation the yearlong selloff had potentially reached a bottom. The S&P 500 closed up 2.6% after swinging more than 5% during a wild trading day. The benchmark clawed back more than 40% of the losses over a six-day selloff that took it to a two-year low. Technical levels factored into the bounce. At one point, the benchmark S&P 500 had given back 50% of its post-pandemic rally, triggering programmed buying. A wave of put options bought to protect against such a rout moved into the money, and as profits were booked, that prompted dealers to buy stocks to remain market neutral. A gauge of consumer price growth rose to a 40-year high last month, sealing the case for the Fed to deliver a large rate hike in November. Stocks plunged 25% this year before Thursday’s rebound, as the central bank tightened policy to curb inflation, leaving investors to weigh how much damage is left for share prices. “There may be some short covering going on, but also, a lot was priced in,” said Michael Contopoulos, director of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “There has likely been a fair amount of defensive positioning lately in equities and on the rates side, higher policy rates means higher probability of a hard landing.”
Bottom-line: 만일 기계적인 추세추종 펀드의 매수 조건이 S&P 500 3,505포인트였거나, 혹은 공매도 포지션이 물가지표 발표 이후 큰 폭의 수익을 거뒀다면, 그것도 아니라면 누군가의 담보부족으로 인한 반대매매가 만든 하락이었을 수도 있음. 전자의 두 조건은 아무래도 상승 반전을 만들었을 것이며, 후자의 조건은 장 중 긴 하락을 만들었을 것임.
“If you had some levered CTA who had a big buy program set to start around 3,505 and then another levered short who doubled down on the CPI print that could have created this snowball where market just ripped as other levered technical systematic traders piled in,” Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI, said. “Or someone just got a fat margin call. We may find out after the dust settles.”.
“If you had some levered CTA who had a big buy program set to start around 3,505 and then another levered short who doubled down on the CPI print that could have created this snowball where market just ripped as other levered technical systematic traders piled in,” Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI, said. “Or someone just got a fat margin call. We may find out after the dust settles.”.
Docent: 한국형 헤지펀드에서도 펀드 기준가가 시장 변동성 대비 덜 민감하게 움직이는 펀드들이 많이 있음. 이들의 전략 구분은 대부분 'Multi Strategy'로 되어 있음. 유동화가 쉬운 자산이 아니고 자산에 대한 평가도 시장성과 다르기 때문에 지금과 같은 때 펀드의 어두운 손실을 완충하는 역할을 함. 이런 부동산,신용, 인프라, 헤지펀드와 같은 사모 폐쇄형 투자는 인플레이션과 금리로 고통받는 연기금 투자자들에게도 마찬가지 역할을 해주고 있음. 블룸버그가 폐쇄형 자산의 보유 내역을 공개하는 10대 펀드들을 분석해 본 결과, 일본, 캐나다 연금펀드에서부터 노르웨이, 중동과 같은 국부펀드에 이르기까지 7조 7천억 달러의 주식과 채권을 이런 폐쇄형 사모 투자로 옮겨놓고 있음을 알게 됨. 가장 극적인 변화는 중국인데, 금융위기 때 0%였던 폐쇄형 투자가 현재 절반에 가까운 비중에 이름. 한국의 국민연금 또한 대체투자에서 7.3% 수익을 거두면서 전체 손실을 -8%로 줄였음. 일본의 경우도 대체투자에서 3월말까지 동 기간 전체 포트폴리오 수익의 4배인 +21.4% 수익을 거둠.
A shift toward private markets is cushioning many of the world’s largest investors from the wreckage wrought by runaway inflation and spiraling interest rates. The big question now looming over giants from China’s $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund to California’s public pension, the largest in the US, is how long those private bets will remain insulated as the economic outlook darkens. The ten biggest global funds that disclose holdings in non-public markets doubled their combined weightings to assets such as private equity and credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds to about a quarter of their portfolios since the global financial crisis, according to a Bloomberg analysis of investment documents. The change has come largely at the expense of stocks and bonds for the $7.7 trillion group, which also spans pensions from Japan to Canada and sovereign funds from Norway to the Middle East. The most dramatic shift is by China Investment Corp., which has taken its exposure to private assets and hedge funds from virtually zero in 2008 to almost half its holdings, according to its most recent update. Private assets can be harder to sell and are subject to less frequent revaluations, but the global pivot has helped offset some ugly losses for these investors. Central banks unwinding years of loose monetary policy have wiped a quarter of value from global stocks and a fifth from bonds in 2022, with the prospect of even more pain ahead. US private equity, meanwhile, is forecast to deliver a greater return than the main asset classes over the next decade, according to data compiled by BlackRock Inc.. “Equities could have more downside from here and bonds may continue to face headwinds from rising rates,” said Kim Bowater, director of consulting at Frontier Advisors, which counsels investors representing nearly $400 billion in assets. “Having more components in the portfolio that behave in different ways can provide strong returns when traditional asset classes aren’t performing.”. A 7.1% gain for unlisted real estate helped Norway’s sovereign wealth fund limit its drop to 14.4% in the first half of this year. By comparison, global equities slumped 21% over the period and bonds fell 14%. The National Pension Service of Korea’s alternatives portfolio jumped 7.3%, reducing its overall loss to 8%. Japan’s mammoth Government Pension Investment Fund saw alternative investments return 21.4% in the year to the end of March, the most recent period of disclosed performance, four times as much as the broader portfolio.
A shift toward private markets is cushioning many of the world’s largest investors from the wreckage wrought by runaway inflation and spiraling interest rates. The big question now looming over giants from China’s $1.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund to California’s public pension, the largest in the US, is how long those private bets will remain insulated as the economic outlook darkens. The ten biggest global funds that disclose holdings in non-public markets doubled their combined weightings to assets such as private equity and credit, real estate, infrastructure and hedge funds to about a quarter of their portfolios since the global financial crisis, according to a Bloomberg analysis of investment documents. The change has come largely at the expense of stocks and bonds for the $7.7 trillion group, which also spans pensions from Japan to Canada and sovereign funds from Norway to the Middle East. The most dramatic shift is by China Investment Corp., which has taken its exposure to private assets and hedge funds from virtually zero in 2008 to almost half its holdings, according to its most recent update. Private assets can be harder to sell and are subject to less frequent revaluations, but the global pivot has helped offset some ugly losses for these investors. Central banks unwinding years of loose monetary policy have wiped a quarter of value from global stocks and a fifth from bonds in 2022, with the prospect of even more pain ahead. US private equity, meanwhile, is forecast to deliver a greater return than the main asset classes over the next decade, according to data compiled by BlackRock Inc.. “Equities could have more downside from here and bonds may continue to face headwinds from rising rates,” said Kim Bowater, director of consulting at Frontier Advisors, which counsels investors representing nearly $400 billion in assets. “Having more components in the portfolio that behave in different ways can provide strong returns when traditional asset classes aren’t performing.”. A 7.1% gain for unlisted real estate helped Norway’s sovereign wealth fund limit its drop to 14.4% in the first half of this year. By comparison, global equities slumped 21% over the period and bonds fell 14%. The National Pension Service of Korea’s alternatives portfolio jumped 7.3%, reducing its overall loss to 8%. Japan’s mammoth Government Pension Investment Fund saw alternative investments return 21.4% in the year to the end of March, the most recent period of disclosed performance, four times as much as the broader portfolio.
Bottom-line: 중고시계 거래 시장에서 롤렉스, 파텍필립, 오데마피게는 전체 거래규모의 71%를 차지함. 올해 4월 고점 이후 롤렉스는 -21% 하락했고, 파텍필립과 오데마피게 또한 고점에서 각각 -19%, -15% 하락함. 주 된 이유는 급격한 공급 증가 때문이며, 모건스탠리는 지속적인 재고 증가와 악화되는 경제환경을 감안할 때 거래 가격은 추가로 하락할 것으로 봄.
Prices for the most popular pre-owned Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches will fall further as the market has been flooded with supply, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report. After surging in 2021 and during the first quarter of 2022, an index of the most popular models from Daytona chronograph maker Rolex tracked by WatchCharts has fallen by 21% since the market peak in April. Prices for the most popular Nautilus-maker Patek Philippe references are down an average of 19% on the secondary market while those for Audemars Piguet, the maker of the Royal Oak, have declined 15% since the peak. Prices will likely keep falling due to a “dramatic” increase in supply, Morgan Stanley analysts including Edouard Aubin said in the report.
“We have noticed a significant increase of watch inventory in the secondary watch market year to date as a result of secondhand watch dealers and individual watch investors off-loading their stocks,” Morgan Stanley said. “Given the current watch inventory for sale and the worsening macro backdrop, we would expect second hand prices to contract further quarter over quarter.”. The most in-demand models of the ‘big three’ - Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet - account for a significant 71% of of the total traded value of the secondary luxury watch market. Prices for the WatchCharts overall market index, which includes other brands, fell by 9% in the third quarter this year compared to the second quarter.
Prices for the most popular pre-owned Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches will fall further as the market has been flooded with supply, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report. After surging in 2021 and during the first quarter of 2022, an index of the most popular models from Daytona chronograph maker Rolex tracked by WatchCharts has fallen by 21% since the market peak in April. Prices for the most popular Nautilus-maker Patek Philippe references are down an average of 19% on the secondary market while those for Audemars Piguet, the maker of the Royal Oak, have declined 15% since the peak. Prices will likely keep falling due to a “dramatic” increase in supply, Morgan Stanley analysts including Edouard Aubin said in the report.
“We have noticed a significant increase of watch inventory in the secondary watch market year to date as a result of secondhand watch dealers and individual watch investors off-loading their stocks,” Morgan Stanley said. “Given the current watch inventory for sale and the worsening macro backdrop, we would expect second hand prices to contract further quarter over quarter.”. The most in-demand models of the ‘big three’ - Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet - account for a significant 71% of of the total traded value of the secondary luxury watch market. Prices for the WatchCharts overall market index, which includes other brands, fell by 9% in the third quarter this year compared to the second quarter.
Docent: 이 기사는 도슨트 역할이 필요할 것 같음. 우선적으로 채권의 금리는 평상 시 경제전망을 반영하기 때문에, 경기 악화로 주가가 하락할 때 같이 떨어짐. 채권의 가격은 채권의 금리와 반대로 상승하기 때문에 결론적으로 주식의 하락을 채권 가격 상승이 보존하는 구조임. 하지만 인플레이션과 통화정책이 주가를 하락하게 만드는 동안 채권 금리도 상승하게 만들어, 채권 가격도 떨어짐. 이런 상황이다 보니 15년래 가장 드문 주식과 채권 모두 공매도가 쌓인 시장이 됨. 그래서 어제 시장의 급격한 반등을 이렇게 유추할 수 있음. i) 주가보다 채권 금리가 앞서 빠진 것은 채권 공매도 포지션의 수익 실현, ii) 위험을 등가로 배분하는 펀드(Risk Parity)는 이 자금으로 주식을 매수, iii) 주식 공매도 포지션의 수익 실현, iv) 콜 옵션 매도 상태에서 시장 상승을 주가지수선물 매수로 헤지해야 하는 딜러들의 폭발적 매수 거래. 이런 흐름으로 수직 상승에 가까운 주가 탄력이 발생했지만, 이것이 전형적인 주가 저점 형성의 모양은 아님.
The 10-year yield started to fall before S&P futures started to bounce. CTAs and macro funds may have been the culprits. We can infer their likely positioning and it looks like they were short both stocks and bonds. That has been a very rare occurrence over the last 15 years, but it’s now more likely as inflation causes stocks and bonds to trade with greater positive correlation. Short covering in bonds therefore probably caused these funds to start buying stocks. Not only was the market very short index futures, there has been a rise in call buying in recent days. This is part of a general pattern this year where the volatility on calls has been rising versus the volatility on puts, leading to very low put-call skew. The combination of short covering, and option dealers frantically having to hedge calls they have sold by buying the market as it rises, led to a near vertical rise in stock prices. This, though, is not a well-functioning market. And while yesterday may mark an interim bottom, it was not marked by several of the usual characteristics of a secular low.
The 10-year yield started to fall before S&P futures started to bounce. CTAs and macro funds may have been the culprits. We can infer their likely positioning and it looks like they were short both stocks and bonds. That has been a very rare occurrence over the last 15 years, but it’s now more likely as inflation causes stocks and bonds to trade with greater positive correlation. Short covering in bonds therefore probably caused these funds to start buying stocks. Not only was the market very short index futures, there has been a rise in call buying in recent days. This is part of a general pattern this year where the volatility on calls has been rising versus the volatility on puts, leading to very low put-call skew. The combination of short covering, and option dealers frantically having to hedge calls they have sold by buying the market as it rises, led to a near vertical rise in stock prices. This, though, is not a well-functioning market. And while yesterday may mark an interim bottom, it was not marked by several of the usual characteristics of a secular low.
Bottom-line: 내년 3월 변동성 지수가 150에 이를 것이란데 베팅한 대량의 콜 옵션 매수 이후 일주일, 또 다시 내년 4월 변동성 지수가 100에 이를 것이라는데 4백만 달러, 7만 계약의 대량매매가 이뤄짐.
A week after someone bet that the stock market’s chief volatility gauge could rise to 150, another big doom-and-gloom wager hit the tape. Shortly after 1 p.m. a trader used options to put on a wager that the Cboe Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, could jump to 100 by April, up from its current level of around 32. The trader appeared to have bought 70,000 call contracts through a series of block trades, spending a total of $4 million.
A week after someone bet that the stock market’s chief volatility gauge could rise to 150, another big doom-and-gloom wager hit the tape. Shortly after 1 p.m. a trader used options to put on a wager that the Cboe Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, could jump to 100 by April, up from its current level of around 32. The trader appeared to have bought 70,000 call contracts through a series of block trades, spending a total of $4 million.
Bottom-line: 캐시우드의 대표 상장지수펀드가 5영업일 연속 하락하며 -9.4% 손실을 입었고, 5주 연속 하락하며 작년 최고 가격에서 -78% 손실을 기록함. 달러 강세에 압박받는 위험자산, 높은 인플레이션과 계속적인 긴축 기조의 중앙은행의 환경은 높은 성장률에서 주 된 가치평가를 받던 주식에 일관되게 부정적 영향을 미치고 있음. 캐시 우드는 중앙은행의 정책 오류에 대해 공개적으로 우려를 표명했으며, 투자자들에게는 최소 5년의 장기적 기간을 두고 성과를 평가해주길 바랬음.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund on Friday closed at its lowest level in five years, after suffering a 78% plunge from last year’s highs. The ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) dropped 5.7%, finishing the day at $33.99 per share. The fund fell roughly 9.4% over the five-day stretch, its fifth straight weekly decline. “Nothing has changed in the larger macro backdrop -- a strong dollar is pressuring risk assets, inflation keeps surprising on the upside, rates are sticky and the Fed has to keep tightening,” said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas Securities. “All of that is a bad combo for high-growth stocks.”. The year hasn’t been kind to the $6.7 billion ETF, as top holdings like Tesla Inc. and Zoom Video Communications Inc. were pummeled. Growth-oriented assets, like tech stocks or retail-trading favorite Tesla, have tanked as the Federal Reserve raises rates to knock down scorching levels of inflation. Wood took the central bank to task this week for its aggressive tightening campaign, penning an open letter to officials to express concern that they could be making a policy error. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Wood said the current risk-off environment means investors are looking for safety in passive benchmark-tracking products and failing to recognize that her fund’s investments are positioned for the long haul. Wood and her firm have often said they are focused on at least a five-year investment horizon.
Cathie Wood’s flagship fund on Friday closed at its lowest level in five years, after suffering a 78% plunge from last year’s highs. The ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) dropped 5.7%, finishing the day at $33.99 per share. The fund fell roughly 9.4% over the five-day stretch, its fifth straight weekly decline. “Nothing has changed in the larger macro backdrop -- a strong dollar is pressuring risk assets, inflation keeps surprising on the upside, rates are sticky and the Fed has to keep tightening,” said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas Securities. “All of that is a bad combo for high-growth stocks.”. The year hasn’t been kind to the $6.7 billion ETF, as top holdings like Tesla Inc. and Zoom Video Communications Inc. were pummeled. Growth-oriented assets, like tech stocks or retail-trading favorite Tesla, have tanked as the Federal Reserve raises rates to knock down scorching levels of inflation. Wood took the central bank to task this week for its aggressive tightening campaign, penning an open letter to officials to express concern that they could be making a policy error. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Wood said the current risk-off environment means investors are looking for safety in passive benchmark-tracking products and failing to recognize that her fund’s investments are positioned for the long haul. Wood and her firm have often said they are focused on at least a five-year investment horizon.