Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 저평가 상태의 주식을 염가에 매수하려는 투자자라면 현금흐름을 창출하거나, 가치지표로 볼 때 매력적이거나, 수익성이 높아지거나, 또는 큰 폭으로 하락해 있는 중소형주나 경기순환주에 주목할 것을 권고함. 특히 가치지표로 볼 때 저평가 상태에 있거나 현금흐름이 좋은 기업은 이익회수기간(주가수익비율의 역수)이 길거나 높은 성장률의 성장주 대비 매력적으로 보인다고 평가함. 중소형주의 경우 대형주 대비 역사적 상대 저평가에 있음. 골드만삭스가 연말 목표치로 전망 한 S&P 500 지수 수준인 3,600 포인트를 현재 하회하고 있지만, 반대로 경기가 경착륙할 경우 지수 수준인 3,150에는 10% 이상 위에서 거래되고 있음.
Goldman Sachs sees some attractive opportunities in quicker cash flow-earners, value stocks, profitable growth firms, “depressed” cyclicals and small caps for US investors looking for bargains. Value stocks and firms earning cash flows immediately look attractive relative to long duration and growth stocks, strategists including David J. Kostin wrote in a note dated Oct. 14. Profitable growth stocks trading at bargain valuations include Exelixis, Meta. Cyclical stocks that are cheap even in the case of a recession include PulteGroup, Toll Brothers and Mosaic. S&P Small Cap 600 Index “trades at a historically large discount” to S&P 500 Index. S&P 500 is trading below Goldman’s base-case year-end target of 3,600, more than 10% away from a hard landing scenario target of 3,150.
Goldman Sachs sees some attractive opportunities in quicker cash flow-earners, value stocks, profitable growth firms, “depressed” cyclicals and small caps for US investors looking for bargains. Value stocks and firms earning cash flows immediately look attractive relative to long duration and growth stocks, strategists including David J. Kostin wrote in a note dated Oct. 14. Profitable growth stocks trading at bargain valuations include Exelixis, Meta. Cyclical stocks that are cheap even in the case of a recession include PulteGroup, Toll Brothers and Mosaic. S&P Small Cap 600 Index “trades at a historically large discount” to S&P 500 Index. S&P 500 is trading below Goldman’s base-case year-end target of 3,600, more than 10% away from a hard landing scenario target of 3,150.
Bottom-line: 제 20차 중국 공산당 전국대표대회의 시진핑 주석의 기조연설에서 바이러스 대확산 방지를 위한 억제정책 완화나 침체 위기의 부동산에 대한 지원책이 제시되지 않으면서 금요일 기대감으로 지수를 상승시켰던 투자자들에게 실망을 줌. 미국과 경쟁적인 기술 분야에서 집중적인 힘을 쏟겠다는 강한 의지를 보였으나, 이것만으로는 증시에 활력을 불어넣기엔 부족했음.
Chinese stocks resumed their decline as President Xi Jinping offered little sign of a shift away from Covid Zero in his key speech, disappointing investors who had been hoping for some loosening of restrictions to shore up the market. The benchmark CSI 300 Index slid as much as 0.9% early Monday, after anticipations ahead of the twice-a-decade Party Congress contributed to a jump on Friday. A gauge of Chinese equities listed in Hong Kong also traded lower. China stock traders have been looking to the leadership gathering for fresh market impetus after suffering losses that have been among the worst in the world. Xi’s renewed pledge for tech self-reliance may offer some reprieve, but overall, the lack of pivot away from Covid Zero and the absence of stimulus signals for the property sector came as a disappointment to investors.
Chinese stocks resumed their decline as President Xi Jinping offered little sign of a shift away from Covid Zero in his key speech, disappointing investors who had been hoping for some loosening of restrictions to shore up the market. The benchmark CSI 300 Index slid as much as 0.9% early Monday, after anticipations ahead of the twice-a-decade Party Congress contributed to a jump on Friday. A gauge of Chinese equities listed in Hong Kong also traded lower. China stock traders have been looking to the leadership gathering for fresh market impetus after suffering losses that have been among the worst in the world. Xi’s renewed pledge for tech self-reliance may offer some reprieve, but overall, the lack of pivot away from Covid Zero and the absence of stimulus signals for the property sector came as a disappointment to investors.
Docent: 과연 기술주들이 처한 참혹한 현실이 중국의 규제 때문만일까?라는 질문을 던져볼 수 있는 내용임. 중국의 지도자는 5년, 10년, 15년의 시간 동안 자신만의 족적을 남기고 있음. 지난 10년 간 경제성장을 주도 한 기술 기업들이 어떻게 세번 째 시진핑의 임기를 맞이할지 귀추가 주목되는 가운데, 다양한 내용을 담고 있는 이 기사를 살펴보고자 함. 우선, 시진핑이 집권을 시작했을 때 시가총액 20위 안에 중국 기업 중 텐센트만이 11위로 기술 기업에 속했지만, 현재 게임 및 사회관계망 서비스, 예약과 배송 서비스를 담당하는 기업들이 다수 포진 하고 있음. 이들 경영진은 시가총액 상위에 포진한 그들의 위치에 비례해 힘든 시간을 겪었다 생각할 수도 있는데, 바이러스 대확산 시기 그들의 기술력과 사회에 미치는 영향을 검증할 수 있는 기회가 있었음에도 불구 알리바바나 텐센트는 그 당시 가격보다 아래에서 거래되고 있는 현실이기 때문임. 이런 현실을 마오쩌둥으로부터 시작 된 '공동번영'를 구호로 한 각 종 규제를 비난의 표적으로 삼기 좋겠지만, 이미 공동번영은 '공동빈곤'으로 퇴색되고 있음. 오히려 알리바바 마윈 회장이 2020년 10월 포럼에서 무분별하게 규제 당국과 은행을 비판했던 때를 떠올려 볼 필요가 있음. 이로 말미암아 한 때 최고의 부를 자랑했던 그의 앤트 그룹 상장이 취소되었음. 이카루스처럼 태양 가까이 다가갔다가 불타버린 것임. 현실은 규제 당국의 규제로부터 충돌을 빚는 기술 기업들이 점점 많아지고 있다는 것이며, 경영진들은 어떻게 해야 정부의 편에 설 수 있을지 아직 모른다는 것임.
Every Chinese leader stamps their mark on the country they rule for five, 10, (or 15) years. Xi Jinping’s brand is indelible, but the technology companies which have powered China’s economic rise over the past decade will be searching for clues on how to navigate his third term. When Xi took power in March 2013, Tencent Holdings Ltd. stood at a lonely 11th spot as the only technology company among China’s 20 largest by market value. Today, the games and social media behemoth stands at the top, accompanied by six others including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in fourth, ahead of bookings and deliveries provider Meituan at number 11 . The Covid outbreak was a great opportunity for China’s technology leaders to prove their worth to the nation, offering a plethora of products to help citizens and companies survive rigid lockdowns and economic upheaval. Yet Tencent and Alibaba now trade lower than they did three years ago, before the virus crept out of Wuhan. A good portion of the blame can be attributed to “common prosperity,” a term first coined by Mao Zedong, but which became a battle cry under Xi last year to “increase the size of middle-income groups.” Companies were quick to jump aboard, telling investors — and Beijing — that they were ready to play their part. “We have actively worked on shouldering more social responsibility and creating greater value while promoting common prosperity for the larger society including our delivery riders, merchants, consumers, and other business partners,” Meituan Chief Executive Officer Wang Xing said in August 2021. But, as my colleague Shuli Ren noted this month, common prosperity has morphed into common poverty as everyone got poorer and China failed to broaden its middle class. It seems the buzzword even fell out of favor this year, although it has been revived in recent weeks and has popped up in state media with increasing frequency. Beijing’s “plan to reduce inequalities throughout the country,” as common prosperity is now described, doesn’t completely explain the troubles facing China’s technology companies, though. In fact, the challenges preceded it. Jack Ma’s ill-advised speech at the October 2020 Bund Forum in Shanghai — wherein he criticized banks and regulators — resulted in the nixed public offering of his fintech Ant Group Co. Ma, founder of Alibaba and once China’s richest man, flew too close to the sun and got burnt. While that one incident, and its fallout, was a shock to the sector, it doesn’t entirely explain the diminished fortunes of China tech. A series of regulatory actions over the past few years — collectively labeled a crackdown — help to describe multiple examples of Beijing’s heavy hand at work. Education companies had their business models pulled from under them, games firms went through repeated bouts of censorship and content renovation, while e-commerce players were hit with punishing antitrust fines. The end result is a growing list of Chinese technology companies who’ve run afoul of regulators. Yet still lacking is clarity as to what executives need to do in order to stay on Beijing’s good side.
Every Chinese leader stamps their mark on the country they rule for five, 10, (or 15) years. Xi Jinping’s brand is indelible, but the technology companies which have powered China’s economic rise over the past decade will be searching for clues on how to navigate his third term. When Xi took power in March 2013, Tencent Holdings Ltd. stood at a lonely 11th spot as the only technology company among China’s 20 largest by market value. Today, the games and social media behemoth stands at the top, accompanied by six others including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in fourth, ahead of bookings and deliveries provider Meituan at number 11 . The Covid outbreak was a great opportunity for China’s technology leaders to prove their worth to the nation, offering a plethora of products to help citizens and companies survive rigid lockdowns and economic upheaval. Yet Tencent and Alibaba now trade lower than they did three years ago, before the virus crept out of Wuhan. A good portion of the blame can be attributed to “common prosperity,” a term first coined by Mao Zedong, but which became a battle cry under Xi last year to “increase the size of middle-income groups.” Companies were quick to jump aboard, telling investors — and Beijing — that they were ready to play their part. “We have actively worked on shouldering more social responsibility and creating greater value while promoting common prosperity for the larger society including our delivery riders, merchants, consumers, and other business partners,” Meituan Chief Executive Officer Wang Xing said in August 2021. But, as my colleague Shuli Ren noted this month, common prosperity has morphed into common poverty as everyone got poorer and China failed to broaden its middle class. It seems the buzzword even fell out of favor this year, although it has been revived in recent weeks and has popped up in state media with increasing frequency. Beijing’s “plan to reduce inequalities throughout the country,” as common prosperity is now described, doesn’t completely explain the troubles facing China’s technology companies, though. In fact, the challenges preceded it. Jack Ma’s ill-advised speech at the October 2020 Bund Forum in Shanghai — wherein he criticized banks and regulators — resulted in the nixed public offering of his fintech Ant Group Co. Ma, founder of Alibaba and once China’s richest man, flew too close to the sun and got burnt. While that one incident, and its fallout, was a shock to the sector, it doesn’t entirely explain the diminished fortunes of China tech. A series of regulatory actions over the past few years — collectively labeled a crackdown — help to describe multiple examples of Beijing’s heavy hand at work. Education companies had their business models pulled from under them, games firms went through repeated bouts of censorship and content renovation, while e-commerce players were hit with punishing antitrust fines. The end result is a growing list of Chinese technology companies who’ve run afoul of regulators. Yet still lacking is clarity as to what executives need to do in order to stay on Beijing’s good side.
Bottom-line: 오늘 중국은 사유를 공개치 않고 화요일 예정이던 경제성장률 발표를 ‘지연’으로 표시함. 경제 전문가들은 이번 3분기 중국 경제성장률이 전년 대비 3.3% 성장했을 것으로 전망했음. 지연으로 표시 된 지표는 이 뿐 아니라 산업생산, 에너지 생산, 고정투자, 부동산 투자 및 판매, 소매판매 및 주택가격임. 관세청 또한 이유를 밝히지 않고 14일 발표해야 했던 무역 데이터를 공개하지 않았음.
China delayed the release of third-quarter gross domestic product data, which were scheduled for release Tuesday, without giving any reason. The National Bureau of Statistics updated its release schedule on Monday, with the dates for major economic indicators due this week marked as “delayed.” A previous schedule had the data scheduled for release at 10 a.m. Tuesday. Indicators that were delayed include quarterly GDP as well as the monthly industrial output, energy production, fixed asset investment, property investment and sales, retail sales and home prices. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a rebound in China’s third-quarter GDP to 3.3% after near-zero growth in the April-June period when major cities including Shanghai were in lockdown. China’s General Administration of Customs also didn’t publish monthly trade data that were scheduled for release on Oct. 14. The agency didn’t provide any reason for the delay. The Communist Party is holding a twice-a-decade congress in Beijing this week, where government officials are gathered.
China delayed the release of third-quarter gross domestic product data, which were scheduled for release Tuesday, without giving any reason. The National Bureau of Statistics updated its release schedule on Monday, with the dates for major economic indicators due this week marked as “delayed.” A previous schedule had the data scheduled for release at 10 a.m. Tuesday. Indicators that were delayed include quarterly GDP as well as the monthly industrial output, energy production, fixed asset investment, property investment and sales, retail sales and home prices. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a rebound in China’s third-quarter GDP to 3.3% after near-zero growth in the April-June period when major cities including Shanghai were in lockdown. China’s General Administration of Customs also didn’t publish monthly trade data that were scheduled for release on Oct. 14. The agency didn’t provide any reason for the delay. The Communist Party is holding a twice-a-decade congress in Beijing this week, where government officials are gathered.
Bottom-line: 미국 증권가에서 가장 긴 기간 약세 시각을 유지하며 올해 하락을 잘 예측한 모건스탠리의 마이클 윌슨은 기업 실적에서 큰 실망이나 공식적 침체 선언이 없다면 지수가 -25% 가량 하락한 수준에서 200주 이동평균선의 강한 지지력을 보이고 있기 때문에, +16% 가량 상승 랠리를 펼칠 수 있다고 봄. 매우 큰 폭의 상승 같겠지만 과거 약세 시장에서 단기 반등의 궤적에 일치하며, 여전히 시장에 대해 중장기적으로 부정적인 시각을 유지한다고 밝힘.
Morgan Stanley’s long-time equities bear says US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession. A 25% slump in the S&P 500 this year has left it testing a “serious floor of support” at its 200-week moving average, which could lead to a technical recovery, strategist Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. Wilson -- one of Wall Street’s most prominent bearish voices, who correctly predicted this year’s slump -- said he “would not rule out” the S&P 500 rising to about 4,150 points -- suggesting 16% upside from its latest close. “While that seems like an awfully big move, it would be in line with bear market rallies this year and prior ones,” he said, while retaining his overall negative long-term stance on equities.
Morgan Stanley’s long-time equities bear says US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession. A 25% slump in the S&P 500 this year has left it testing a “serious floor of support” at its 200-week moving average, which could lead to a technical recovery, strategist Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. Wilson -- one of Wall Street’s most prominent bearish voices, who correctly predicted this year’s slump -- said he “would not rule out” the S&P 500 rising to about 4,150 points -- suggesting 16% upside from its latest close. “While that seems like an awfully big move, it would be in line with bear market rallies this year and prior ones,” he said, while retaining his overall negative long-term stance on equities.
Bottom-line: 역사를 돌아보면, 약세 시장의 끝을 가늠하기엔 이른 것 같음. 9개월 간 S&P 500 지수가 -25% 하락했지만, 과거 약세 시장의 평균은 15~16개월 간 평균 -38% 하락함.
History shows that the bear market in US stocks may be far from over. The S&P 500 Index has fallen 25% in a little more than nine months since its January peak, a shallower and shorter drop than is typical of similar instances over the last century. On average in that time, the benchmark has slid about 38% over a period of 15 to 16 months before reaching a bottom, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With inflation and interest rates still rising, recession looming in many economies, and stress on supply chains and corporate margins, there are plenty of negatives for investors right now. Still, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, a long-time equities bear, said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession.
History shows that the bear market in US stocks may be far from over. The S&P 500 Index has fallen 25% in a little more than nine months since its January peak, a shallower and shorter drop than is typical of similar instances over the last century. On average in that time, the benchmark has slid about 38% over a period of 15 to 16 months before reaching a bottom, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With inflation and interest rates still rising, recession looming in many economies, and stress on supply chains and corporate margins, there are plenty of negatives for investors right now. Still, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, a long-time equities bear, said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession.
Bottom-line: 9월 물가지표에 대한 시장 반응은 최악의 일간 움직임 중 하나로 기록, 마찬가지 10월의 물가지표도 기대를 상회했지만 최고의 일간 움직임 중 하나로 기록 됨. 이는 기업의 실적이 거시경제 데이터에 사로 잡힌 시장을 진정시킬 수 있단 희망을 보여 줌. 3분기 S&P 500 지수를 구성하는 기업의 합산 성장률 기대는 6월 전년 대비 +10%에서 10월 +2%까지 하향 조정됨. 성장주의 경우 3분기 -8.4% 역성장할 것으로 예상되며 언제든 실적이 기대를 상회할 요건을 갖추게 됨.
Earnings season could offer some relief for markets captivated by macroeconomic data. After one of the worst one-day price reactions to a CPI print in 20 years in September, the S&P 500 had one of its best-ever responses in October, despite the year-over-year change in CPI coming in higher than expected. Earnings could calm stocks in the coming weeks, given that expectations are low and may be easy to beat. Forecasts have plummeted over the past several months. In June, analysts were projecting 10% year-over-year EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 3Q; that's been revised down to just 2%. Growth stocks face the easiest expectations, forecast to report an 8.4% decline in EPS.
Earnings season could offer some relief for markets captivated by macroeconomic data. After one of the worst one-day price reactions to a CPI print in 20 years in September, the S&P 500 had one of its best-ever responses in October, despite the year-over-year change in CPI coming in higher than expected. Earnings could calm stocks in the coming weeks, given that expectations are low and may be easy to beat. Forecasts have plummeted over the past several months. In June, analysts were projecting 10% year-over-year EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 3Q; that's been revised down to just 2%. Growth stocks face the easiest expectations, forecast to report an 8.4% decline in EPS.
Bloomberg에 옵션 거래와 관련한 내용이 있는데, 조금 깁니다. 제가 메시지 알람음을 끈 상태로 보내드리려 하니, 보실 분은 보고 참고하십시오. 마찬가지 사담이므로, 일정 시간이 지나면 삭제합니다.
많은 분들께서 궁금하셨고 널리 읽으신 내용 같아 이 파트는 유지해놓겠습니다.
많은 분들께서 궁금하셨고 널리 읽으신 내용 같아 이 파트는 유지해놓겠습니다.
1. 우선 지수의 변동성에 대해 생각해보면, 긴 시간 동안 하락으로 -25% 낙폭을 겪고 있으며, 거시경제 환경이 불안함에도 불구하고 변동성지수(VIX, 혹은 공포지수)는 너무 낮은 수준에 머물러 있습니다. 그러다보니 지수의 변동성 증가에 대한 옵션 전략은 그다지 성공적이지 못했습니다.
2. 에너지 관련 기업이 두배 가까이 오르는 동안 성장주는 절반의 가격으로 거래 될 정도로 개별주식은 큰 폭의 움직임을 보였지만, 지수 차원에서 본다면 두 가격 괴리가 지수의 변동성을 오히려 제한하는 역할을 했습니다. 뿐만 아니라 낮은 유동성과 펀드 자금 규모가 줄어듬에 따라서 헤지에 대한 수요 자체도 적었습니다. 이것이 지수의 변동성이 왜 악화 된 상황 대비 낮은가를 보여줍니다.
3. 뿐만 아니라 지수가 단기간 큰 폭으로 하락하며 충격을 주는게 아니라, 끓는 물의 개구리처럼 천천히 흘러 내리다보니 옵션의 시간가치 때문에 원하는 목표 가격이 오더라도 큰 보람이 없게 되었다고 평가(made options hedging less rewarding than usual.)합니다.
4. 하지만 개별주식의 세상은 또 다른 이야기였습니다. 개별주식의 변동성은 지수보다 훨씬 큰 폭으로 움직이면서 특정 사건에 대한 변동성 옵션 거래가 큰 보상을 주고 있기 때문입니다. 이는 우리에게 잘 알려진 'Dispersion' 전략입니다. 쉽게 말하자면 개별 주식의 수익률의 변동폭이 서로 커질 경우 수익의 기회가 더 많이 발생한다는 것입니다.
5. PepsiCo, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley를 한 번 살펴보면, 그들이 개별 사건에 얼마나 극단적으로 반응(PepsiCo Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been posting notable gains, Morgan Stanley are getting punished)한지 알 수 있습니다. 이렇게 서로 다른 주식 간 가격 변화폭이 커지면서 기회가 발생했습니다.
6. 그래서 Bloomberg의 기사는 말합니다. 거시경제의 방향이 지수를 어디로 이끌지는 잘 모릅니다. 다만, 에너지와 기술 기업들 사이에서 이런 가격 격차 확대(DIspersion)를 활용한 변동성 거래가 활황을 띄고 있습니다.
7. 단기적으로 이러한 거래가 지속 이뤄질 것이라 예상해볼 수 있고, 반대로 볼 때 지수를 묶어두고 개별주식으로 변동성 거래(short-index-long-single-stock-volatility trad)를 하고 있기 때문에 위험에 노출 된 전략이기도 합니다. 만일 지수가 큰 폭으로 움직일 경우 이 거래는 또한 큰 폭의 손실을 거둘 수 있습니다.
소개해드린 기사의 제목은 'One Options Strategy Wins Big in Odd Year for Stock Volatility'입니다. 제가 넘긴 부분을 전체 읽어보시려면 참고하십시오. 어쨌거나 현재의 시장 현상을 보다 이해할 수 있는 부분이었습니다.