Bottom-line: 오늘 중국은 사유를 공개치 않고 화요일 예정이던 경제성장률 발표를 ‘지연’으로 표시함. 경제 전문가들은 이번 3분기 중국 경제성장률이 전년 대비 3.3% 성장했을 것으로 전망했음. 지연으로 표시 된 지표는 이 뿐 아니라 산업생산, 에너지 생산, 고정투자, 부동산 투자 및 판매, 소매판매 및 주택가격임. 관세청 또한 이유를 밝히지 않고 14일 발표해야 했던 무역 데이터를 공개하지 않았음.
China delayed the release of third-quarter gross domestic product data, which were scheduled for release Tuesday, without giving any reason. The National Bureau of Statistics updated its release schedule on Monday, with the dates for major economic indicators due this week marked as “delayed.” A previous schedule had the data scheduled for release at 10 a.m. Tuesday. Indicators that were delayed include quarterly GDP as well as the monthly industrial output, energy production, fixed asset investment, property investment and sales, retail sales and home prices. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a rebound in China’s third-quarter GDP to 3.3% after near-zero growth in the April-June period when major cities including Shanghai were in lockdown. China’s General Administration of Customs also didn’t publish monthly trade data that were scheduled for release on Oct. 14. The agency didn’t provide any reason for the delay. The Communist Party is holding a twice-a-decade congress in Beijing this week, where government officials are gathered.
China delayed the release of third-quarter gross domestic product data, which were scheduled for release Tuesday, without giving any reason. The National Bureau of Statistics updated its release schedule on Monday, with the dates for major economic indicators due this week marked as “delayed.” A previous schedule had the data scheduled for release at 10 a.m. Tuesday. Indicators that were delayed include quarterly GDP as well as the monthly industrial output, energy production, fixed asset investment, property investment and sales, retail sales and home prices. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a rebound in China’s third-quarter GDP to 3.3% after near-zero growth in the April-June period when major cities including Shanghai were in lockdown. China’s General Administration of Customs also didn’t publish monthly trade data that were scheduled for release on Oct. 14. The agency didn’t provide any reason for the delay. The Communist Party is holding a twice-a-decade congress in Beijing this week, where government officials are gathered.
Bottom-line: 미국 증권가에서 가장 긴 기간 약세 시각을 유지하며 올해 하락을 잘 예측한 모건스탠리의 마이클 윌슨은 기업 실적에서 큰 실망이나 공식적 침체 선언이 없다면 지수가 -25% 가량 하락한 수준에서 200주 이동평균선의 강한 지지력을 보이고 있기 때문에, +16% 가량 상승 랠리를 펼칠 수 있다고 봄. 매우 큰 폭의 상승 같겠지만 과거 약세 시장에서 단기 반등의 궤적에 일치하며, 여전히 시장에 대해 중장기적으로 부정적인 시각을 유지한다고 밝힘.
Morgan Stanley’s long-time equities bear says US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession. A 25% slump in the S&P 500 this year has left it testing a “serious floor of support” at its 200-week moving average, which could lead to a technical recovery, strategist Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. Wilson -- one of Wall Street’s most prominent bearish voices, who correctly predicted this year’s slump -- said he “would not rule out” the S&P 500 rising to about 4,150 points -- suggesting 16% upside from its latest close. “While that seems like an awfully big move, it would be in line with bear market rallies this year and prior ones,” he said, while retaining his overall negative long-term stance on equities.
Morgan Stanley’s long-time equities bear says US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession. A 25% slump in the S&P 500 this year has left it testing a “serious floor of support” at its 200-week moving average, which could lead to a technical recovery, strategist Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note on Monday. Wilson -- one of Wall Street’s most prominent bearish voices, who correctly predicted this year’s slump -- said he “would not rule out” the S&P 500 rising to about 4,150 points -- suggesting 16% upside from its latest close. “While that seems like an awfully big move, it would be in line with bear market rallies this year and prior ones,” he said, while retaining his overall negative long-term stance on equities.
Bottom-line: 역사를 돌아보면, 약세 시장의 끝을 가늠하기엔 이른 것 같음. 9개월 간 S&P 500 지수가 -25% 하락했지만, 과거 약세 시장의 평균은 15~16개월 간 평균 -38% 하락함.
History shows that the bear market in US stocks may be far from over. The S&P 500 Index has fallen 25% in a little more than nine months since its January peak, a shallower and shorter drop than is typical of similar instances over the last century. On average in that time, the benchmark has slid about 38% over a period of 15 to 16 months before reaching a bottom, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With inflation and interest rates still rising, recession looming in many economies, and stress on supply chains and corporate margins, there are plenty of negatives for investors right now. Still, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, a long-time equities bear, said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession.
History shows that the bear market in US stocks may be far from over. The S&P 500 Index has fallen 25% in a little more than nine months since its January peak, a shallower and shorter drop than is typical of similar instances over the last century. On average in that time, the benchmark has slid about 38% over a period of 15 to 16 months before reaching a bottom, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With inflation and interest rates still rising, recession looming in many economies, and stress on supply chains and corporate margins, there are plenty of negatives for investors right now. Still, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, a long-time equities bear, said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession.
Bottom-line: 9월 물가지표에 대한 시장 반응은 최악의 일간 움직임 중 하나로 기록, 마찬가지 10월의 물가지표도 기대를 상회했지만 최고의 일간 움직임 중 하나로 기록 됨. 이는 기업의 실적이 거시경제 데이터에 사로 잡힌 시장을 진정시킬 수 있단 희망을 보여 줌. 3분기 S&P 500 지수를 구성하는 기업의 합산 성장률 기대는 6월 전년 대비 +10%에서 10월 +2%까지 하향 조정됨. 성장주의 경우 3분기 -8.4% 역성장할 것으로 예상되며 언제든 실적이 기대를 상회할 요건을 갖추게 됨.
Earnings season could offer some relief for markets captivated by macroeconomic data. After one of the worst one-day price reactions to a CPI print in 20 years in September, the S&P 500 had one of its best-ever responses in October, despite the year-over-year change in CPI coming in higher than expected. Earnings could calm stocks in the coming weeks, given that expectations are low and may be easy to beat. Forecasts have plummeted over the past several months. In June, analysts were projecting 10% year-over-year EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 3Q; that's been revised down to just 2%. Growth stocks face the easiest expectations, forecast to report an 8.4% decline in EPS.
Earnings season could offer some relief for markets captivated by macroeconomic data. After one of the worst one-day price reactions to a CPI print in 20 years in September, the S&P 500 had one of its best-ever responses in October, despite the year-over-year change in CPI coming in higher than expected. Earnings could calm stocks in the coming weeks, given that expectations are low and may be easy to beat. Forecasts have plummeted over the past several months. In June, analysts were projecting 10% year-over-year EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 3Q; that's been revised down to just 2%. Growth stocks face the easiest expectations, forecast to report an 8.4% decline in EPS.
Bloomberg에 옵션 거래와 관련한 내용이 있는데, 조금 깁니다. 제가 메시지 알람음을 끈 상태로 보내드리려 하니, 보실 분은 보고 참고하십시오. 마찬가지 사담이므로, 일정 시간이 지나면 삭제합니다.
많은 분들께서 궁금하셨고 널리 읽으신 내용 같아 이 파트는 유지해놓겠습니다.
많은 분들께서 궁금하셨고 널리 읽으신 내용 같아 이 파트는 유지해놓겠습니다.
1. 우선 지수의 변동성에 대해 생각해보면, 긴 시간 동안 하락으로 -25% 낙폭을 겪고 있으며, 거시경제 환경이 불안함에도 불구하고 변동성지수(VIX, 혹은 공포지수)는 너무 낮은 수준에 머물러 있습니다. 그러다보니 지수의 변동성 증가에 대한 옵션 전략은 그다지 성공적이지 못했습니다.
2. 에너지 관련 기업이 두배 가까이 오르는 동안 성장주는 절반의 가격으로 거래 될 정도로 개별주식은 큰 폭의 움직임을 보였지만, 지수 차원에서 본다면 두 가격 괴리가 지수의 변동성을 오히려 제한하는 역할을 했습니다. 뿐만 아니라 낮은 유동성과 펀드 자금 규모가 줄어듬에 따라서 헤지에 대한 수요 자체도 적었습니다. 이것이 지수의 변동성이 왜 악화 된 상황 대비 낮은가를 보여줍니다.
3. 뿐만 아니라 지수가 단기간 큰 폭으로 하락하며 충격을 주는게 아니라, 끓는 물의 개구리처럼 천천히 흘러 내리다보니 옵션의 시간가치 때문에 원하는 목표 가격이 오더라도 큰 보람이 없게 되었다고 평가(made options hedging less rewarding than usual.)합니다.
4. 하지만 개별주식의 세상은 또 다른 이야기였습니다. 개별주식의 변동성은 지수보다 훨씬 큰 폭으로 움직이면서 특정 사건에 대한 변동성 옵션 거래가 큰 보상을 주고 있기 때문입니다. 이는 우리에게 잘 알려진 'Dispersion' 전략입니다. 쉽게 말하자면 개별 주식의 수익률의 변동폭이 서로 커질 경우 수익의 기회가 더 많이 발생한다는 것입니다.
5. PepsiCo, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley를 한 번 살펴보면, 그들이 개별 사건에 얼마나 극단적으로 반응(PepsiCo Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been posting notable gains, Morgan Stanley are getting punished)한지 알 수 있습니다. 이렇게 서로 다른 주식 간 가격 변화폭이 커지면서 기회가 발생했습니다.
6. 그래서 Bloomberg의 기사는 말합니다. 거시경제의 방향이 지수를 어디로 이끌지는 잘 모릅니다. 다만, 에너지와 기술 기업들 사이에서 이런 가격 격차 확대(DIspersion)를 활용한 변동성 거래가 활황을 띄고 있습니다.
7. 단기적으로 이러한 거래가 지속 이뤄질 것이라 예상해볼 수 있고, 반대로 볼 때 지수를 묶어두고 개별주식으로 변동성 거래(short-index-long-single-stock-volatility trad)를 하고 있기 때문에 위험에 노출 된 전략이기도 합니다. 만일 지수가 큰 폭으로 움직일 경우 이 거래는 또한 큰 폭의 손실을 거둘 수 있습니다.
소개해드린 기사의 제목은 'One Options Strategy Wins Big in Odd Year for Stock Volatility'입니다. 제가 넘긴 부분을 전체 읽어보시려면 참고하십시오. 어쨌거나 현재의 시장 현상을 보다 이해할 수 있는 부분이었습니다.
Bottom-line: 뱅크 오브 아메리카의 실적에서 숨어있는 경기침체의 신호를 찾기 어려웠음. 소비자 신용카드 사용은 전년 대비 13% 증가했고, 여행과 여가에 사용함. 상대적은 낮은 소득의 소비자의 저축률은 대확산 이전 대비 5배 가량 늘고, 차량 소유는 절반으로 줄었음. 규제에 따라 은행은 잠재적 손실에 대한 선제적 충당금을 쌓아야 하지만, 눈을 가늘게 뜨고 깊이 살펴도 아직 그런 징후는 보이지 않는다 함. 소비자 연체 상태 또한 동사가 영업을 시작 한 이후 역대 두번째로 낮다고 함.
It’s difficult to see signs of a lurking recession in Bank of America Corp.’s numbers. The company was the latest on Wall Street to offer a largely rosy assessment of the US consumer. Spending on BofA’s credit cards jumped 13% in the third quarter from a year earlier as consumers spent more on traveling and entertainment. Less-affluent consumers are still sitting on savings five times what they were before the pandemic. And the number of cars the bank repossesses in any given month has been cut in half. Investors have been on edge while waiting to see how US consumers are holding up against surging prices and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes to fight inflation. While accounting rules did force the biggest US banks to set aside more in reserves for potential loan losses, putting a crimp on profits, executives are adamant they’re not seeing signs of stress from customers. “These numbers are so low, we’re squinting to see a change here,” Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick said on a conference call with analysts Monday, noting that delinquencies are at their second-lowest level of all time at Bank of America.
It’s difficult to see signs of a lurking recession in Bank of America Corp.’s numbers. The company was the latest on Wall Street to offer a largely rosy assessment of the US consumer. Spending on BofA’s credit cards jumped 13% in the third quarter from a year earlier as consumers spent more on traveling and entertainment. Less-affluent consumers are still sitting on savings five times what they were before the pandemic. And the number of cars the bank repossesses in any given month has been cut in half. Investors have been on edge while waiting to see how US consumers are holding up against surging prices and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes to fight inflation. While accounting rules did force the biggest US banks to set aside more in reserves for potential loan losses, putting a crimp on profits, executives are adamant they’re not seeing signs of stress from customers. “These numbers are so low, we’re squinting to see a change here,” Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick said on a conference call with analysts Monday, noting that delinquencies are at their second-lowest level of all time at Bank of America.
Bottom-line: 3년이 조금 안되는 시간 동안 바이러스 대확산은 우리 삶의 많은 것을 바꾸었음. 편한 바지조차 입지 않고 고객과 줌 미팅을 하고, 온라인 자동차 거래인 카바나에서 차를 구매하고, 어떤 백신을 먼저 맞고 또 다음에 맞고, 우리가 어떻게 살고 일하고, 노는지, 아이들의 교육까지 바꾸었음. 그 중 가장 놀라운 것은 누구의 생각보다 빠르고 크게 부를 쌓고 잃을 수 있단걸 보여줌. 58명의 일명 COVID-19 억만장자들은 누구보다 빠르게 부를 쌓았지만, 마찬가지 억만장자 그룹의 누구보다 빨리 쌓았던 부의 상당 부분을 잃음. 이들은 이 괴상한 금융시대에 있어 일종의 기념비라 할 수 있음.
There really was a time when no one wore sweatpants on Zoom calls with clients. Or even dreamed about buying a used BMW on Carvana.com. Or had to remember which shot — Pfizer, the first time? Moderna, the second? — they got. In a little less than three years, Covid-19 has changed everything: how we live, work and play, educate our kids. And, it turns out, how vast wealth can be made — and lost — faster than anyone might’ve thought possible. The roll-out of Moderna Inc.’s vaccine propelled scientist Stephane Bancel’s net worth to $15 billion as the shares soared almost 2,400%. Eric Yuan, denied a US visa eight times before moving from China, watched his fortune hit $29 billion as Zoom Video Communications Inc. became the world’s go-to video-conferencing tool. And the father-son duo behind online used-car seller Carvana Co. amassed a $32 billion fortune at the peak. The men belong to an exclusive club of 58 billionaires whose wealth multiplied at an eye-popping pace thanks to changes brought about by Covid and cheap money, only to plummet even quicker. Their rise and subsequent slump were sharper than the other 131 members of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index whose net worth more than doubled, but wasn’t as reliant on how Covid altered lives across the globe. Together, they’re a monument to these strange financial times that both spawned extraordinary fortunes and plunged legions into extreme poverty.
There really was a time when no one wore sweatpants on Zoom calls with clients. Or even dreamed about buying a used BMW on Carvana.com. Or had to remember which shot — Pfizer, the first time? Moderna, the second? — they got. In a little less than three years, Covid-19 has changed everything: how we live, work and play, educate our kids. And, it turns out, how vast wealth can be made — and lost — faster than anyone might’ve thought possible. The roll-out of Moderna Inc.’s vaccine propelled scientist Stephane Bancel’s net worth to $15 billion as the shares soared almost 2,400%. Eric Yuan, denied a US visa eight times before moving from China, watched his fortune hit $29 billion as Zoom Video Communications Inc. became the world’s go-to video-conferencing tool. And the father-son duo behind online used-car seller Carvana Co. amassed a $32 billion fortune at the peak. The men belong to an exclusive club of 58 billionaires whose wealth multiplied at an eye-popping pace thanks to changes brought about by Covid and cheap money, only to plummet even quicker. Their rise and subsequent slump were sharper than the other 131 members of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index whose net worth more than doubled, but wasn’t as reliant on how Covid altered lives across the globe. Together, they’re a monument to these strange financial times that both spawned extraordinary fortunes and plunged legions into extreme poverty.