Bottom-line: Ding Ding Ding! 150 Dollar-Yen.
USD/JPY has reached 150 for the first time since 1990 and traders will be looking for Japanese authorities to support the yen with direct or stealth intervention.
USD/JPY has reached 150 for the first time since 1990 and traders will be looking for Japanese authorities to support the yen with direct or stealth intervention.
Bottom-line: 영국 부채연계투자(LDI)의 타격이 슈로더를 통해 일부 확인됨. 영국 최대 규모의 독립 운용사의 운용자산이 3분기 동안 33조 6,000억원 감소했는데, 부채연계투자를 담당하는 솔루션 사업부에서 대부분 빚어진 것으로 보임. 파생상품을 활용해 연기금이 자산과 부채를 일치시키는데 사용하는 부채연계투자는 지난 10년 간 4배 가까이 성장해 2020년 기준 2,565조원에 이르는 시장 규모임. 회사는 답변을 거부했으나 운용자산 손실의 대부분은 9월 23일 리즈 트러스 총리로부터 빚어진 혼란에 기인한 것으로 보임.
Schroders Plc saw its assets under management drop by £21 billion in the third quarter after the UK pension fund crisis engulfed the industry. The UK’s largest standalone asset manager said assets dropped to £752.4 billion from £773.4 billion in the three months through September, according to a statement Thursday. More than £20 billion of the decline came from the firm’s Solutions business, which houses its so-called liability-driven investment strategies. Schroders is one of several asset managers to offer LDI investment strategies that typically use derivatives to help pension funds match their assets with their liabilities. It is a £1.6 trillion market, which has almost quadrupled in the 10 years through 2020, according to the UK’s Investment Association.
A spokesperson for the firm declined to comment. The results only capture a week of the turmoil that rippled through markets after the announcement on Sept. 23 by the government of new Prime Minister Liz Truss of unfunded tax cuts and increased state spending.
Schroders Plc saw its assets under management drop by £21 billion in the third quarter after the UK pension fund crisis engulfed the industry. The UK’s largest standalone asset manager said assets dropped to £752.4 billion from £773.4 billion in the three months through September, according to a statement Thursday. More than £20 billion of the decline came from the firm’s Solutions business, which houses its so-called liability-driven investment strategies. Schroders is one of several asset managers to offer LDI investment strategies that typically use derivatives to help pension funds match their assets with their liabilities. It is a £1.6 trillion market, which has almost quadrupled in the 10 years through 2020, according to the UK’s Investment Association.
A spokesperson for the firm declined to comment. The results only capture a week of the turmoil that rippled through markets after the announcement on Sept. 23 by the government of new Prime Minister Liz Truss of unfunded tax cuts and increased state spending.
Bottom-line: 지도자 투표를 담당하는 1922 위원회의 브래디 위원장을 리즈 트러스 총리가 만날 예정임.
Truss Meets With UK Tory Official in Charge of Leadership Votes. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is meeting Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee in Downing Street, Truss’s office says in an emailed statement.
Truss Meets With UK Tory Official in Charge of Leadership Votes. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is meeting Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee in Downing Street, Truss’s office says in an emailed statement.
Bottom-line: 누가 후임이 될지에 대한 베팅 상태며, 보수당 위원들에 의하면 리즈 트러스에 대한 정리가 생각보다 빨리 될 수도 있다고 함. 물론, 후임을 누구로 해야 하는지에 대한 문제가 있음.
Several Tory MPs have told me this morning that things are moving very quickly against Liz Truss now. They previously thought she had bought herself enough time to get to the end of the month, but yesterday’s departure of Braverman and the chaos of the fracking vote means she could depart this week. Tricky thing is, many MPs still don’t know who’s the best person to replace her.
Several Tory MPs have told me this morning that things are moving very quickly against Liz Truss now. They previously thought she had bought herself enough time to get to the end of the month, but yesterday’s departure of Braverman and the chaos of the fracking vote means she could depart this week. Tricky thing is, many MPs still don’t know who’s the best person to replace her.
Bottom-line: 엄밀히 말하면, 보수당 원칙에 따라 1년 동안 해임이 면제되므로 보호 받을 수 있지만, 수 많은 사임 요청이 있다면 오히려 위원장이 규칙을 변경해야 할지도 모른다는 압박을 받을 것임. 아마도 그 전에 브래디 위원장이 리즈 트러스에게 모든게 끝났다 말하고, 스스로 물러나도록 할 것으로 보임.
Strictly speaking, Truss is protected from a leadership challenge due to a one-year immunity clause under existing Conservative Party rules. But if Brady receives a mountain of letters calling for Truss to quit, he’ll be under huge pressure to change the rules to allow a fresh leadership vote. It’s likely it wouldn’t even get that far -- Brady would tell Truss it’s game over, and she’d quit.
Strictly speaking, Truss is protected from a leadership challenge due to a one-year immunity clause under existing Conservative Party rules. But if Brady receives a mountain of letters calling for Truss to quit, he’ll be under huge pressure to change the rules to allow a fresh leadership vote. It’s likely it wouldn’t even get that far -- Brady would tell Truss it’s game over, and she’d quit.
Bottom-line: 그녀는 포기하지 않고 싸우는 사람이라고 말했지만, 누구도 그녀를 지지하지 않는 지금 무엇을 위해 싸워야 할까?
Truss made the point yesterday that she’s a fighter, not a quitter. The question now is what she’s fighting for.
Truss made the point yesterday that she’s a fighter, not a quitter. The question now is what she’s fighting for.
Bottom-line: 이론적으로 임기 1년 뒤 15%의 인원이 1922 위원회 위원장에게 의사를 제출해야 투표가 열리지만, 그 전에 그녀에게 사임을 권할 것으로 예상함.
In theory, Truss is protected from an internal party leadership challenge for her first year in power, and thereafter the rule is that if 15% of Tory MPs submit a letter to Brady, a contest is triggered. But in practice, as Joe says, if a groundswell of lawmakers tell Brady they think she should go, he’ll relay to her the message that the game’s up.
In theory, Truss is protected from an internal party leadership challenge for her first year in power, and thereafter the rule is that if 15% of Tory MPs submit a letter to Brady, a contest is triggered. But in practice, as Joe says, if a groundswell of lawmakers tell Brady they think she should go, he’ll relay to her the message that the game’s up.
Bottom-line: 앞선 두 총리도 1년의 기간에 의해 살아남았지만, 그 뒤 곧 바로 사라졌음. 시장의 채권과 통화의 현재 손실 회복 반응은 그녀의 지도 하에 영국이 위험했다 생각했음을 보여주고 있음.
Markets are looking past the fact that Truss’s leadership is in danger: UK bonds have rallied, easing earlier losses, and the pound has flipped to gains today. Both of Truss’s immediate predecessors -- Boris Johnson and Theresa May -- survived confidence votes, in theory giving them -- like Truss -- a year’s immunity from challenge. And both were gone within a year.
Markets are looking past the fact that Truss’s leadership is in danger: UK bonds have rallied, easing earlier losses, and the pound has flipped to gains today. Both of Truss’s immediate predecessors -- Boris Johnson and Theresa May -- survived confidence votes, in theory giving them -- like Truss -- a year’s immunity from challenge. And both were gone within a year.
The current holder of that rather ignominious record, George Canning, died in office of tuberculosis after 119 days. Truss is currently on 44 days.
Bottom-line: 다우닝 가 10번지에 한시간도 되지 않아 주요 인사들이 모두 모임.
It’s been a busy lunchtime for Liz Truss. Within just one hour, 1922 Chair Graham Brady, Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey and Party chairman Jake Berry all entered No 10.
It’s been a busy lunchtime for Liz Truss. Within just one hour, 1922 Chair Graham Brady, Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey and Party chairman Jake Berry all entered No 10.
Bottom-line: 점점 많은 불신임 편지가 도착하고 있음.
More letters of no confidence are publicly going in against Liz Truss. One of the latest is from Jill Mortimer, who won her seat in a by-election under Boris Johnson.
More letters of no confidence are publicly going in against Liz Truss. One of the latest is from Jill Mortimer, who won her seat in a by-election under Boris Johnson.
Bottom-line: 다우닝 가 10번지의 유명한 검은색 문 앞에 연설대가 설치되었으며, 파운드화는 리즈 트러스의 성명문 발표가 다가올 수록 상승 중임.
The prime minister’s podium is being installed outside the famous black door of 10 Downing Street. The pound is taking all this news rather well. It’s spiking higher as the statement approaches, and is currently up 0.5% at $1.1278.
The prime minister’s podium is being installed outside the famous black door of 10 Downing Street. The pound is taking all this news rather well. It’s spiking higher as the statement approaches, and is currently up 0.5% at $1.1278.
Bottom-line: 천년 넘게 여전히 사용 중인 가장 오래 된 화폐인 파운드의 변동성이 이제 막 생겨난 비트코인의 그것과 비슷하게 됨.
The pound sterling -- regarded by Wikipedia as the world’s oldest currency still in use, and in continuous use since its inception more than a thousand years ago -- is lately almost as volatile as new-comer Bitcoin.
The pound sterling -- regarded by Wikipedia as the world’s oldest currency still in use, and in continuous use since its inception more than a thousand years ago -- is lately almost as volatile as new-comer Bitcoin.
Docent: 본격적인 기업들의 실적 발표 시기에 이 기사는 도슨트 역할을 하고자 함. 우선 2017년 이후 부진한 실적을 발표한 기업들은 평균 -1.2% 하락했지만, 지난 2분기는 반대로 0.6% 상승하면서 악재가 이미 반영되었다는 신호를 줌. 이 덕에 짧았던 여름의 랠리가 발생함. 제이피모건, 심지어 가장 강력한 약세론자인 모건스탠리의 마이클 윌슨도 이미 많은 기업들이 업황의 열악함을 경고해 가격에 악재가 상당 부분 반영되어 나쁜 소식에도 되려 단기 랠리의 가능성을 지적함. 반면, 지나 온 일을 확인하는 것보다 기업이 제시하는 전망에 주목해야 할 것이란 주장도 있는데, 골드만삭스의 경우 이번 분기 i) 달러 강세, ii) 비용 증가와 판매가격 미상승에 따른 이익률 감소, iii) 바이든 정부의 인플레이션 감축법에 따른 세금의 역풍이 우려되며, 2023년 성장률을 시장 예상치인 7%보다 낮은 3%로 제시함. 뱅크 오브 아메리카 또한 주식시장의 저점을 확인하는데 이익 추정치 지표를 써서는 안된다고 했는데, 이익 추정치 지표는 가격의 저점을 4개월 가량 후행하기 때문임.
Investor sentiment has been so negative going into this earnings season that at this point, even bad results might lead to a bounce in stocks. If this starts to happen, it could be a signal that the equity market’s bottom is near. With many companies in both the US and Europe having warned over the past two months about the impact of deteriorating business conditions on profit -- and seen their stock tumble --, expectations have already been reset to a large extent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Mislav Matejka. Even one of the market’s most vocal bears, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, sees scope for a short-term rebound in markets at a time when most firms are expected to be delivering grim messages to investors. “Share-price reactions to negative surprises will reveal if the bad news is priced in,” said Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Laurent Douillet, noting that rising short positions have been pressuring equities ahead of this earnings season. Disappointing results had already been priced into equities ahead of the last reporting season. Stocks in the S&P 500 Index that fell short of earnings expectations gained 0.6% after publishing results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This was in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. Relief that corporate results showed at least some resilience helped fuel a mid-summer rally. Whatever earnings show, investors are likely to care more about forward guidance than they do about backward-looking results. Pricing power and the margin outlook will be key, with the gap between producer and consumer prices having narrowed significantly in the US since the last earnings season, although not in Europe. According to Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann, there are three main risks heading into the season: Sales headwinds from a stronger dollar, the impact on margins of a weaker consumer and input cost pressure, and taxes due to President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. He expects negative earnings per share revisions for 2023 and forecasts growth of 3%, versus consensus for a 7% increase in profits. And for those trying to use earnings to define a stock market bottom, Bank of America Corp. strategist Milla Savova has a clear message: earnings are not the indicator to look at, as they usually trough four months after the market on average.
Investor sentiment has been so negative going into this earnings season that at this point, even bad results might lead to a bounce in stocks. If this starts to happen, it could be a signal that the equity market’s bottom is near. With many companies in both the US and Europe having warned over the past two months about the impact of deteriorating business conditions on profit -- and seen their stock tumble --, expectations have already been reset to a large extent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Mislav Matejka. Even one of the market’s most vocal bears, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, sees scope for a short-term rebound in markets at a time when most firms are expected to be delivering grim messages to investors. “Share-price reactions to negative surprises will reveal if the bad news is priced in,” said Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Laurent Douillet, noting that rising short positions have been pressuring equities ahead of this earnings season. Disappointing results had already been priced into equities ahead of the last reporting season. Stocks in the S&P 500 Index that fell short of earnings expectations gained 0.6% after publishing results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This was in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. Relief that corporate results showed at least some resilience helped fuel a mid-summer rally. Whatever earnings show, investors are likely to care more about forward guidance than they do about backward-looking results. Pricing power and the margin outlook will be key, with the gap between producer and consumer prices having narrowed significantly in the US since the last earnings season, although not in Europe. According to Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann, there are three main risks heading into the season: Sales headwinds from a stronger dollar, the impact on margins of a weaker consumer and input cost pressure, and taxes due to President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. He expects negative earnings per share revisions for 2023 and forecasts growth of 3%, versus consensus for a 7% increase in profits. And for those trying to use earnings to define a stock market bottom, Bank of America Corp. strategist Milla Savova has a clear message: earnings are not the indicator to look at, as they usually trough four months after the market on average.