Bottom-line: 앞선 두 총리도 1년의 기간에 의해 살아남았지만, 그 뒤 곧 바로 사라졌음. 시장의 채권과 통화의 현재 손실 회복 반응은 그녀의 지도 하에 영국이 위험했다 생각했음을 보여주고 있음.
Markets are looking past the fact that Truss’s leadership is in danger: UK bonds have rallied, easing earlier losses, and the pound has flipped to gains today. Both of Truss’s immediate predecessors -- Boris Johnson and Theresa May -- survived confidence votes, in theory giving them -- like Truss -- a year’s immunity from challenge. And both were gone within a year.
Markets are looking past the fact that Truss’s leadership is in danger: UK bonds have rallied, easing earlier losses, and the pound has flipped to gains today. Both of Truss’s immediate predecessors -- Boris Johnson and Theresa May -- survived confidence votes, in theory giving them -- like Truss -- a year’s immunity from challenge. And both were gone within a year.
The current holder of that rather ignominious record, George Canning, died in office of tuberculosis after 119 days. Truss is currently on 44 days.
Bottom-line: 다우닝 가 10번지에 한시간도 되지 않아 주요 인사들이 모두 모임.
It’s been a busy lunchtime for Liz Truss. Within just one hour, 1922 Chair Graham Brady, Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey and Party chairman Jake Berry all entered No 10.
It’s been a busy lunchtime for Liz Truss. Within just one hour, 1922 Chair Graham Brady, Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey and Party chairman Jake Berry all entered No 10.
Bottom-line: 점점 많은 불신임 편지가 도착하고 있음.
More letters of no confidence are publicly going in against Liz Truss. One of the latest is from Jill Mortimer, who won her seat in a by-election under Boris Johnson.
More letters of no confidence are publicly going in against Liz Truss. One of the latest is from Jill Mortimer, who won her seat in a by-election under Boris Johnson.
Bottom-line: 다우닝 가 10번지의 유명한 검은색 문 앞에 연설대가 설치되었으며, 파운드화는 리즈 트러스의 성명문 발표가 다가올 수록 상승 중임.
The prime minister’s podium is being installed outside the famous black door of 10 Downing Street. The pound is taking all this news rather well. It’s spiking higher as the statement approaches, and is currently up 0.5% at $1.1278.
The prime minister’s podium is being installed outside the famous black door of 10 Downing Street. The pound is taking all this news rather well. It’s spiking higher as the statement approaches, and is currently up 0.5% at $1.1278.
Bottom-line: 천년 넘게 여전히 사용 중인 가장 오래 된 화폐인 파운드의 변동성이 이제 막 생겨난 비트코인의 그것과 비슷하게 됨.
The pound sterling -- regarded by Wikipedia as the world’s oldest currency still in use, and in continuous use since its inception more than a thousand years ago -- is lately almost as volatile as new-comer Bitcoin.
The pound sterling -- regarded by Wikipedia as the world’s oldest currency still in use, and in continuous use since its inception more than a thousand years ago -- is lately almost as volatile as new-comer Bitcoin.
Docent: 본격적인 기업들의 실적 발표 시기에 이 기사는 도슨트 역할을 하고자 함. 우선 2017년 이후 부진한 실적을 발표한 기업들은 평균 -1.2% 하락했지만, 지난 2분기는 반대로 0.6% 상승하면서 악재가 이미 반영되었다는 신호를 줌. 이 덕에 짧았던 여름의 랠리가 발생함. 제이피모건, 심지어 가장 강력한 약세론자인 모건스탠리의 마이클 윌슨도 이미 많은 기업들이 업황의 열악함을 경고해 가격에 악재가 상당 부분 반영되어 나쁜 소식에도 되려 단기 랠리의 가능성을 지적함. 반면, 지나 온 일을 확인하는 것보다 기업이 제시하는 전망에 주목해야 할 것이란 주장도 있는데, 골드만삭스의 경우 이번 분기 i) 달러 강세, ii) 비용 증가와 판매가격 미상승에 따른 이익률 감소, iii) 바이든 정부의 인플레이션 감축법에 따른 세금의 역풍이 우려되며, 2023년 성장률을 시장 예상치인 7%보다 낮은 3%로 제시함. 뱅크 오브 아메리카 또한 주식시장의 저점을 확인하는데 이익 추정치 지표를 써서는 안된다고 했는데, 이익 추정치 지표는 가격의 저점을 4개월 가량 후행하기 때문임.
Investor sentiment has been so negative going into this earnings season that at this point, even bad results might lead to a bounce in stocks. If this starts to happen, it could be a signal that the equity market’s bottom is near. With many companies in both the US and Europe having warned over the past two months about the impact of deteriorating business conditions on profit -- and seen their stock tumble --, expectations have already been reset to a large extent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Mislav Matejka. Even one of the market’s most vocal bears, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, sees scope for a short-term rebound in markets at a time when most firms are expected to be delivering grim messages to investors. “Share-price reactions to negative surprises will reveal if the bad news is priced in,” said Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Laurent Douillet, noting that rising short positions have been pressuring equities ahead of this earnings season. Disappointing results had already been priced into equities ahead of the last reporting season. Stocks in the S&P 500 Index that fell short of earnings expectations gained 0.6% after publishing results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This was in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. Relief that corporate results showed at least some resilience helped fuel a mid-summer rally. Whatever earnings show, investors are likely to care more about forward guidance than they do about backward-looking results. Pricing power and the margin outlook will be key, with the gap between producer and consumer prices having narrowed significantly in the US since the last earnings season, although not in Europe. According to Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann, there are three main risks heading into the season: Sales headwinds from a stronger dollar, the impact on margins of a weaker consumer and input cost pressure, and taxes due to President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. He expects negative earnings per share revisions for 2023 and forecasts growth of 3%, versus consensus for a 7% increase in profits. And for those trying to use earnings to define a stock market bottom, Bank of America Corp. strategist Milla Savova has a clear message: earnings are not the indicator to look at, as they usually trough four months after the market on average.
Investor sentiment has been so negative going into this earnings season that at this point, even bad results might lead to a bounce in stocks. If this starts to happen, it could be a signal that the equity market’s bottom is near. With many companies in both the US and Europe having warned over the past two months about the impact of deteriorating business conditions on profit -- and seen their stock tumble --, expectations have already been reset to a large extent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Mislav Matejka. Even one of the market’s most vocal bears, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson, sees scope for a short-term rebound in markets at a time when most firms are expected to be delivering grim messages to investors. “Share-price reactions to negative surprises will reveal if the bad news is priced in,” said Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Laurent Douillet, noting that rising short positions have been pressuring equities ahead of this earnings season. Disappointing results had already been priced into equities ahead of the last reporting season. Stocks in the S&P 500 Index that fell short of earnings expectations gained 0.6% after publishing results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This was in stark contrast to an average 1.2% decline seen during earnings seasons since 2017. Relief that corporate results showed at least some resilience helped fuel a mid-summer rally. Whatever earnings show, investors are likely to care more about forward guidance than they do about backward-looking results. Pricing power and the margin outlook will be key, with the gap between producer and consumer prices having narrowed significantly in the US since the last earnings season, although not in Europe. According to Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann, there are three main risks heading into the season: Sales headwinds from a stronger dollar, the impact on margins of a weaker consumer and input cost pressure, and taxes due to President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. He expects negative earnings per share revisions for 2023 and forecasts growth of 3%, versus consensus for a 7% increase in profits. And for those trying to use earnings to define a stock market bottom, Bank of America Corp. strategist Milla Savova has a clear message: earnings are not the indicator to look at, as they usually trough four months after the market on average.
Bottom-line: 바이든 정부의 중국 기술력 억제 정책이 더욱 강화될 가능성이 있음. 소식에 따르면, 최근 부상하고 있는 양자 컴퓨팅 기술과 인공 지능 분야에 대한 제한을 고려하고 있다고 함. 이것이 사실이라면 이달 초 이미 시행 된 무기 및 감시 시스템에 대한 첨단 반도체 제한과 동일한 형태를 가질 것임. 이런 미국의 행동은 경쟁자가 핵심 기술을 중국이 개발하지 못하도록 하는데 목표를 두고 있음. 관계 부처는 답변을 거부했음.
The Biden administration is exploring the possibility of new export controls that would limit China’s access to some of the most powerful emerging computing technologies, according to people familiar with the situation. The potential plans, which are in an early stage, are focused on the still-experimental field of quantum computing, as well as artificial intelligence software, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing private deliberations. Industry experts are weighing in on how to set the parameters of the restrictions on this nascent technology, they said. The efforts, if implemented, would follow separate restrictions announced earlier this month aimed at stunting Beijing’s ability to deploy cutting-edge semiconductors in weapons and surveillance systems. The US has ramped up actions to stifle China’s ability to develop certain technologies that it sees as key in the competition with its top strategic rival. The sweeping regulations released earlier this month also limited how US citizens and residents participate in Chinese tech firms. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, which plays a key role in designing and enforcing export controls and announced the semiconductor restrictions on Oct. 7, declined to comment. The White House National Security Council isn’t aware of discussions on such additional controls, according to a spokesperson.
The Biden administration is exploring the possibility of new export controls that would limit China’s access to some of the most powerful emerging computing technologies, according to people familiar with the situation. The potential plans, which are in an early stage, are focused on the still-experimental field of quantum computing, as well as artificial intelligence software, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing private deliberations. Industry experts are weighing in on how to set the parameters of the restrictions on this nascent technology, they said. The efforts, if implemented, would follow separate restrictions announced earlier this month aimed at stunting Beijing’s ability to deploy cutting-edge semiconductors in weapons and surveillance systems. The US has ramped up actions to stifle China’s ability to develop certain technologies that it sees as key in the competition with its top strategic rival. The sweeping regulations released earlier this month also limited how US citizens and residents participate in Chinese tech firms. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, which plays a key role in designing and enforcing export controls and announced the semiconductor restrictions on Oct. 7, declined to comment. The White House National Security Council isn’t aware of discussions on such additional controls, according to a spokesperson.
Bottom-line: 선물시장에서 중앙은행에 대한 최종금리에 대한 베팅은 올해 내도록 상승해 이제 5%에 도달했음. 일부 중앙은행 인사들도 이러한 수준에 이르도록 인상이 필요하다는 의견을 내고 있으며, 블룸버그 내부 예상치는 7월 5%에서 현재 6%로 올라섰음. 그러나 주식시장은 기업들의 실적 발표에 초점을 두면서 금리인상 위험은 뒤로 두고 있음. 역사적으로 가격은 이익을 따르지만, 금리인상 위험이 전면에 부각될 때 또 다시 위협이 될 것임. 과거 5% 이상의 정책금리 시기를 살펴보면 주가수익비율은 16.1배까지 하락하는데, S&P 500 지수의 수요일 종가 기준(주당순이익 추정치가 하향되지 않는다는 가정 하에)으로 -11% 하방 위험을 지님. 정책금리가 높아질수록 주가수익비율은 낮아지는 경향이 있어 때때로 정점에 도달했을 때 주가수익비율은 15.3배까지 하락하기도 함. 올해 시장 참여자들은 중앙은행의 정책금리에 대해 지속 과소평가 해왔기 때문에 선물 시장의 가파른 정책금리 반영을 주식시장은 늦게 뒤따르고 있음.
On Wall Street, the consensus is that the Federal Reserve’s key overnight rate will peak at 5% in the first half of next year as the central bank keeps hiking in the face of stubbornly high inflation. If that’s correct, then stock valuations are likely to fall even further. Fed funds futures show traders bet the rate -- now in a range of 3-3.25% -- will hit 5% by March 2023. Some Fed speakers have openly endorsed such expectations and markets are slowly adjusting to that possibility. Treasury yields are now well over 4% across the curve, with the policy sensitive two-year note over 4.6%. Equities have been slower to follow, given that earnings season is dominating everyone’s attention. Historically, earnings have lifted stock prices. But investors are likely to face more pressure once rate-hike risk is back in the foreground. Markets have consistently underestimated how far the Fed will go, with wagers for where the rate will peak rising steadily all year. Bloomberg Economics, which anticipated a terminal rate of 5% back in July, is now making the case for it hitting 6%. Veteran fund manager Mark Mobius warned of 9%. It hasn’t been that high since the late 1980s. Looking at past times when the Fed pushed its rate up to 5%, the median S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio was 16.1 when it first reached that level, according to quarterly data going back to 1954. It was at 18 by Wednesday’s close. Assuming earnings don’t change from current levels, a P/E ratio of 16.1 would imply an S&P 500 index at 3,276.3, or an 11.3% decline from Wednesday’s close. It’s worth noting that past tightening cycles have typically gone past 5%. And as rates went higher, valuations went lower. The median S&P 500 P/E low reached during past Fed tightening cycles that took rates to 5% and above was 15.3.
On Wall Street, the consensus is that the Federal Reserve’s key overnight rate will peak at 5% in the first half of next year as the central bank keeps hiking in the face of stubbornly high inflation. If that’s correct, then stock valuations are likely to fall even further. Fed funds futures show traders bet the rate -- now in a range of 3-3.25% -- will hit 5% by March 2023. Some Fed speakers have openly endorsed such expectations and markets are slowly adjusting to that possibility. Treasury yields are now well over 4% across the curve, with the policy sensitive two-year note over 4.6%. Equities have been slower to follow, given that earnings season is dominating everyone’s attention. Historically, earnings have lifted stock prices. But investors are likely to face more pressure once rate-hike risk is back in the foreground. Markets have consistently underestimated how far the Fed will go, with wagers for where the rate will peak rising steadily all year. Bloomberg Economics, which anticipated a terminal rate of 5% back in July, is now making the case for it hitting 6%. Veteran fund manager Mark Mobius warned of 9%. It hasn’t been that high since the late 1980s. Looking at past times when the Fed pushed its rate up to 5%, the median S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio was 16.1 when it first reached that level, according to quarterly data going back to 1954. It was at 18 by Wednesday’s close. Assuming earnings don’t change from current levels, a P/E ratio of 16.1 would imply an S&P 500 index at 3,276.3, or an 11.3% decline from Wednesday’s close. It’s worth noting that past tightening cycles have typically gone past 5%. And as rates went higher, valuations went lower. The median S&P 500 P/E low reached during past Fed tightening cycles that took rates to 5% and above was 15.3.
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Bottom-line: 메리 데일리는 경제지표들이 도움을 주고 있지 않지만, 최종 정책금리가 다가 올 수록 한 번에 인상하는 금리 폭을 50bp 혹은 25bp로 낮춰야 한다고 생각함. 또한 시장 참여자들도 75bp 금리인상이 끊임없이 연속 될 것이라 단정짓지 말것을 권고함.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said that policymakers should start planning for a reduction in the size of interest-rate increases, though it’s not yet time to “step down” from large hikes. “It should at least be something we’re considering at this point, but the data haven’t been cooperating,” Daly said Friday in a fireside chat hosted by the University of California Berkeley. At the November meeting, “we might find ourselves, and the markets have certainly priced this in, with another 75 basis-point increase, but I would really recommend people don’t take that away as, it’s 75 forever.”. A slowdown to more incremental increases of 50 or 25 basis points will be appropriate as the Fed’s benchmark rate gets closer to its terminal level for this hiking cycle, Daly said.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said that policymakers should start planning for a reduction in the size of interest-rate increases, though it’s not yet time to “step down” from large hikes. “It should at least be something we’re considering at this point, but the data haven’t been cooperating,” Daly said Friday in a fireside chat hosted by the University of California Berkeley. At the November meeting, “we might find ourselves, and the markets have certainly priced this in, with another 75 basis-point increase, but I would really recommend people don’t take that away as, it’s 75 forever.”. A slowdown to more incremental increases of 50 or 25 basis points will be appropriate as the Fed’s benchmark rate gets closer to its terminal level for this hiking cycle, Daly said.
Bottom-line: 비트코인의 가격 움직임이 S&P 500 지수 및 나스닥 100 지수와 각각 0.69, 0.72의 상관관계를 가지고 있지만, 이는 몇개월 전까지 거의 똑같은 자산같이 움직이던 때보다 낮아지는 추세에 있음. 반면 8월까지 0의 상관관계를 가지던 금과 현재 0.50의 상관관계까지 가파르게 높아짐. 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 거시경제 환경이 불확실하고 시장의 저점을 향한 하락이 남았단 생각이 투자자들로 하여금 비트코인을 다시 안전자산처럼 여기도록 어떤 변화의 과정에 있지 않나 추정함.
Bitcoin’s movements in relation to other assets may indicate that investors see it becoming a haven again, after a stretch where it’s traded basically as a risk asset, according to Bank of America Corp. The largest cryptocurrency has a 40-day correlation with gold of about 0.50, up from around zero in mid-August. While the correlations are higher with the S&P 500, at 0.69, and Nasdaq 100 at 0.72, they’ve flattened out and are below record levels from a few months ago. BofA digital strategists Alkesh Shah and Andrew Moss see that as a sign that things could be changing. “A decelerating positive correlation with SPX/QQQ and a rapidly rising correlation with XAU indicate that investors may view Bitcoin as a relative safe haven as macro uncertainty continues and a market bottom remains to be seen,” the strategists wrote.
Bitcoin’s movements in relation to other assets may indicate that investors see it becoming a haven again, after a stretch where it’s traded basically as a risk asset, according to Bank of America Corp. The largest cryptocurrency has a 40-day correlation with gold of about 0.50, up from around zero in mid-August. While the correlations are higher with the S&P 500, at 0.69, and Nasdaq 100 at 0.72, they’ve flattened out and are below record levels from a few months ago. BofA digital strategists Alkesh Shah and Andrew Moss see that as a sign that things could be changing. “A decelerating positive correlation with SPX/QQQ and a rapidly rising correlation with XAU indicate that investors may view Bitcoin as a relative safe haven as macro uncertainty continues and a market bottom remains to be seen,” the strategists wrote.