Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said a hot inflation report for June suggested officials should raise rates by at least 75 basis points later this month, but she declined to spell out if she would favor going even bigger. “Certainty the inflation report suggests that there’s no reason to say that a smaller rate increase than we did last time, right, because nothing moved in that direction,” Mester said Wednesday during an interview on Bloomberg Television with Kathleen Hays. Asked if she thought a 100 basis-point rate increase should be considered this month, Mester said that decision would be made at the July 26-27 meeting and that officials would have more economic data by then to factor in. ”We’re going to have the meeting and we’re going to talk about what the appropriate path of policy is,” Mester said. “We don’t have to make a decision today. Still, she added that she’s “not seen any convincing evidence that inflation has turned the corner.”

함의: 인플레이션이 진정되지 않아 적은 폭의 금리인상에 하등의 이유가 없지만, 100bp 인상은 보다 많은 데이터를 통해야 헐 것으로 봄.

Both systematic and discretionary positioning indicators rose slightly this week, but the former continues to be particularly low. Equity positioning for systematic strategy funds moved up slightly to the 4th percentile(z-score: -1.76). Discretionary investor positioning remains underweight equities(22nd percentile, z-score: -0.30), commensurate with a sharp slowdown in growth from current levels(ISM manufacturing at 50) but not yet with a full-blown recession.

보고서: 알고리즘의 주식 포지션은 가장 낮은 수준에 근접, 인간의 주식 포지션은 낮은 영역에 머물고 있음. (Deutsche Bank - Still Hovering At Low Levels)

Crypto lender Celsius Network has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Southern District of New York, according to a filing. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been saying that some of the supply-shock dynamics driving up prices would be hard for the central bank to rein in. So far that warning is proving to be more accurate than his now-infamous prognosis that inflation would prove transitory. Wednesday’s even-hotter-than-expected CPI data showed that so far the Fed’s steepest rate hikes in a generation underscored that point.

함의: 그의 인플레이션이 일시적이란 악명높은 전망보다, 일부 인플레이션은 통화정책으로 통제하기 어렵단 말은 설득력을 얻고 있음.

The climbing gold-to-silver ratio reflects the mood of the R word becoming the predominant narrative in markets. And the long track record of the metals ratio suggests a recession is likely.

함의: 금/은 비율 상승은 침체가 멀리 있지 않음을 시사함.

In our recessionary scenario, we expect the S&P 500 index level would fall by 17% to 3150 at year-end 2022, including a P/E multiple contraction to 14x. Prices move faster than analyst estimates, so we assume that by year-end 2022 bottom-up consensus 2023 EPS forecasts move half-way from current estimates ($250) to eventual realized EPS ($200). If the forward EPS estimate moves to $225, a 14x P/E multiple would bring the S&P 500 to 3150. This peak to trough price decline of 34% would be slightly more severe than the historical average recession decline of 30% but in line with the median bear market decline since WWII.

보고서: 경기침체 시나리오에서 지수는 현재보다 -17% 하락해 -34%의 고점 대비 낙폭을 보이겠으나, 전쟁 이후 침체기 하락의 중앙값인 -30% 수준이라 할 수 있음. (Goldman Sachs - Assessing downside risks to consensus 2023 EPS estimates)

Chinese regulators have been asked to exercise greater caution when it comes to reviewing new overseas spending and investment plans amid concerns among senior leaders that higher US interest rates could spur capital outflows, according to people familiar with the matter. State-owned companies were similarly told that they should be cautious when spending and investing overseas, said the people who asked not to be named because they’re not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. No specific targets or limitations have been set on such expenditure abroad, they said.

함의: 국가 간 금리 차이에 따른 자본유출이 우려됨에 따라 중국은 역외 투자에 대해 규제 움직임을 보이는 것 같음.

The Philippine central bank unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points, after policy makers previously downplayed the need for large hikes to quell the fastest inflation in nearly four years.

함의: Jumbo hike race, soon.

Central banks across the globe are speeding up interest-rate hikes, seeking to crush an inflation surge partly of their own making. Wednesday saw Canada’s central bank hike a greater-than-expected full percentage point following two half-point moves, South Korea raise by a half point after several quarter-point moves, and New Zealand increase by a half point for a third straight meeting. After a 75 basis-point hike in Chile, the action returned to Asia with Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightening policy Thursday morning and the Philippine central bank following shortly afterward with its own surprise three-quarter-point move. Bets on a jumbo rate increase in Australia also surged after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. 

함의: 선진국과 신흥국, 경제여력과 무관하게 금리인상이 몰아치는 중임.

Chip Giant TSMC's Quarterly Results.

Net income of NT$237 billion beats NT$220 billion estimate. Advanced 5nm, 7nm nodes account for 51% of revenue. Margin of 59.1% is wider than 56.8% estimate. Quarterly capex $7.34 billion; First-half capex $16.7 billion.

Notably the sales contribution from smartphones continue to drop in past quarter, to 38% vs 42% a year ago. While high-performance computing is playing a bigger role in TSMC’s business. The smartphone industry is going to look really bad this year. TSMC said in the first quarter earnings call that it won’t cut pricing even in a downturn. Let’s see whether the management will still stick with that goal.

함의: 좋은 실적과 훌륭한 자신감.

Markets expect the Fed to giveth after Wednesday’s scorching inflation print but they also expect it to quickly taketh away. At one point traders priced in a 3-in-4 chance of a full percentage point rate hike this month, with 75bps now completely beyond discussion. But investors are also pricing in more than three rate cuts next year, anticipating a rapid Fed shift to an easing stance as the US economy recoils from the impact of aggressive hikes in 2022.

함의: 투자자들은 올해와 반대로 내년 미국 중앙은행이 적어도 세번의 금리인하를 할 수 있다고 봄.

Chinese bureaucrats studying the energy outlook are proposing to end a near two-year ban on Australian coal as tensions begin to ease and on concerns supply may tighten when Western-led sanctions on Russian energy kick in. The proposal will be submitted to senior leaders, with a recommendation Beijing resume Australian imports prompted by fears European-led curbs on Russian energy will increase competition for coal from China’s main suppliers like Indonesia, according to people familiar with the plan. Officials are looking to boost fuel supplies to avoid a repeat of last year’s power disruptions -- particularly ahead of a key party congress -- said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter. 

함의: 중국은 러시아로 인한 에너지 수요 경쟁력 약화를 우려해 2년 가까이 금지했던 호주 석탄 수입을 재개하려고 함.

Chinese authorities held emergency meetings with banks after growing alarmed that an increasing number of homebuyers across the country are refusing to pay mortgages on stalled projects, according to people familiar with the matter. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development met with financial regulators and major Chinese banks this week to discuss the mortgage boycotts on concern that more buyers may follow suit, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. While there was no immediate solution, regulators asked local watchdogs and banks to report the impact, including property projects affected in their jurisdictions, as soon as possible, the people said. Some banks plan to tighten their mortgage lending requirements in high-risk cities, two of the people said.

함의: 부실 업체들로 인해 중단 된 부동산 프로젝트에 지급 거부 운동이 커지면서 당국은 파급효과를 주시하고 있음.