Crypto lender Celsius Network has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Southern District of New York, according to a filing. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been saying that some of the supply-shock dynamics driving up prices would be hard for the central bank to rein in. So far that warning is proving to be more accurate than his now-infamous prognosis that inflation would prove transitory. Wednesday’s even-hotter-than-expected CPI data showed that so far the Fed’s steepest rate hikes in a generation underscored that point.

함의: 그의 인플레이션이 일시적이란 악명높은 전망보다, 일부 인플레이션은 통화정책으로 통제하기 어렵단 말은 설득력을 얻고 있음.

The climbing gold-to-silver ratio reflects the mood of the R word becoming the predominant narrative in markets. And the long track record of the metals ratio suggests a recession is likely.

함의: 금/은 비율 상승은 침체가 멀리 있지 않음을 시사함.

In our recessionary scenario, we expect the S&P 500 index level would fall by 17% to 3150 at year-end 2022, including a P/E multiple contraction to 14x. Prices move faster than analyst estimates, so we assume that by year-end 2022 bottom-up consensus 2023 EPS forecasts move half-way from current estimates ($250) to eventual realized EPS ($200). If the forward EPS estimate moves to $225, a 14x P/E multiple would bring the S&P 500 to 3150. This peak to trough price decline of 34% would be slightly more severe than the historical average recession decline of 30% but in line with the median bear market decline since WWII.

보고서: 경기침체 시나리오에서 지수는 현재보다 -17% 하락해 -34%의 고점 대비 낙폭을 보이겠으나, 전쟁 이후 침체기 하락의 중앙값인 -30% 수준이라 할 수 있음. (Goldman Sachs - Assessing downside risks to consensus 2023 EPS estimates)

Chinese regulators have been asked to exercise greater caution when it comes to reviewing new overseas spending and investment plans amid concerns among senior leaders that higher US interest rates could spur capital outflows, according to people familiar with the matter. State-owned companies were similarly told that they should be cautious when spending and investing overseas, said the people who asked not to be named because they’re not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. No specific targets or limitations have been set on such expenditure abroad, they said.

함의: 국가 간 금리 차이에 따른 자본유출이 우려됨에 따라 중국은 역외 투자에 대해 규제 움직임을 보이는 것 같음.

The Philippine central bank unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points, after policy makers previously downplayed the need for large hikes to quell the fastest inflation in nearly four years.

함의: Jumbo hike race, soon.

Central banks across the globe are speeding up interest-rate hikes, seeking to crush an inflation surge partly of their own making. Wednesday saw Canada’s central bank hike a greater-than-expected full percentage point following two half-point moves, South Korea raise by a half point after several quarter-point moves, and New Zealand increase by a half point for a third straight meeting. After a 75 basis-point hike in Chile, the action returned to Asia with Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightening policy Thursday morning and the Philippine central bank following shortly afterward with its own surprise three-quarter-point move. Bets on a jumbo rate increase in Australia also surged after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. 

함의: 선진국과 신흥국, 경제여력과 무관하게 금리인상이 몰아치는 중임.

Chip Giant TSMC's Quarterly Results.

Net income of NT$237 billion beats NT$220 billion estimate. Advanced 5nm, 7nm nodes account for 51% of revenue. Margin of 59.1% is wider than 56.8% estimate. Quarterly capex $7.34 billion; First-half capex $16.7 billion.

Notably the sales contribution from smartphones continue to drop in past quarter, to 38% vs 42% a year ago. While high-performance computing is playing a bigger role in TSMC’s business. The smartphone industry is going to look really bad this year. TSMC said in the first quarter earnings call that it won’t cut pricing even in a downturn. Let’s see whether the management will still stick with that goal.

함의: 좋은 실적과 훌륭한 자신감.

Markets expect the Fed to giveth after Wednesday’s scorching inflation print but they also expect it to quickly taketh away. At one point traders priced in a 3-in-4 chance of a full percentage point rate hike this month, with 75bps now completely beyond discussion. But investors are also pricing in more than three rate cuts next year, anticipating a rapid Fed shift to an easing stance as the US economy recoils from the impact of aggressive hikes in 2022.

함의: 투자자들은 올해와 반대로 내년 미국 중앙은행이 적어도 세번의 금리인하를 할 수 있다고 봄.

Chinese bureaucrats studying the energy outlook are proposing to end a near two-year ban on Australian coal as tensions begin to ease and on concerns supply may tighten when Western-led sanctions on Russian energy kick in. The proposal will be submitted to senior leaders, with a recommendation Beijing resume Australian imports prompted by fears European-led curbs on Russian energy will increase competition for coal from China’s main suppliers like Indonesia, according to people familiar with the plan. Officials are looking to boost fuel supplies to avoid a repeat of last year’s power disruptions -- particularly ahead of a key party congress -- said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter. 

함의: 중국은 러시아로 인한 에너지 수요 경쟁력 약화를 우려해 2년 가까이 금지했던 호주 석탄 수입을 재개하려고 함.

Chinese authorities held emergency meetings with banks after growing alarmed that an increasing number of homebuyers across the country are refusing to pay mortgages on stalled projects, according to people familiar with the matter. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development met with financial regulators and major Chinese banks this week to discuss the mortgage boycotts on concern that more buyers may follow suit, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. While there was no immediate solution, regulators asked local watchdogs and banks to report the impact, including property projects affected in their jurisdictions, as soon as possible, the people said. Some banks plan to tighten their mortgage lending requirements in high-risk cities, two of the people said.

함의: 부실 업체들로 인해 중단 된 부동산 프로젝트에 지급 거부 운동이 커지면서 당국은 파급효과를 주시하고 있음.

The EC trimmed this year's GDP outlook for the euro area to 2.6%, citing the risk of energy shortages and slowing demand due to inflation, according to draft projections. The Commission now sees GDP growth at 1.4% in 2023, down from a May projection of 2.3%. The EC raised its inflation estimate to 7.6% this year, versus the previous 6.1%. The official report is due today.

함의: 유럽위원회는 유로존의 성장률 전망은 낮추고 물가 전망은 높임.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he ordered as many as nine nuclear reactors to be restarted to help ease concerns about a possible power crunch. 
“There are concerns about a power shortage this winter,” Kishida told a news conference Thursday. “We must prevent this situation.” Japan is struggling with tight electricity supplies due to extreme weather, the retirement of older power plants, and delays to restarting nuclear reactors that were shut following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. It is also cutting its use of energy sources from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

함의: 일본은 에너지 위기에 대응하기 위해 원자력발전 재가동을 할 예정임.

US 2s10s Inversion Beyond 2000 Level a Definite Possibility. Signals from this index that inflation is becoming ingrained would add to the case for the Federal Reserve to front load rate hikes, not only raising them by 100bps later this month, but also leaving similar size rate hikes on the table at its September meeting. This should see the yield curve invert further as 2-year yields are propelled higher while longer-term yields rise less, or even fall, amid safe-haven inflows into longer-dated bonds from growing fears of a recession in coming months.

함의: 금리인상으로 인한 단기 수익률 상승, 침체 공포로 인한 장기 수익률 하락으로 2000년대 이후 보지 못한 수준의 수익률 역전도 가능할 것임.