Bottom-line: 제이피모건자산운용과 오성자산운용의 매니저는 여전히 달러 강세에 확신을 가지고 있다고 함. 캐나다 중앙은행이 예상보다 낮은 금리인상을 함에 따라 여타 중앙은행 또한 강한 긴축적 태도를 선회할 것으로 기대가 형성되며 달러지수가 1개월 최저치를 기록 한 뒤에도 그렇게 생각함. 이들은 중앙은행의 최종금리에 아직 도달하지 않았고, 전세계 경기가 침체 위험에 직면한 상황에서 미국이 다른 국가 대비 나은 거시경제 환경에 놓일 것이므로 달러에 대한 수요는 여전할 것으로 봄. 최근까지 달러지수는 4개월 가까이 랠리를 하며 다른 국가의 통화를 다년 간 최저치로 끌어내렸음.
It’s too soon to write off the dollar’s dominance as the US rate-hike cycle may not be near its peak. That’s the firm conviction of money managers at JPMorgan Asset Management and Fivestar Asset Management even after a gauge of the greenback touched a one-month low on Thursday. Signs that aggressive Federal Reserve tightening is starting to take a toll are fueling bets for a slower pace of rate increases. But dollar bulls remain undaunted: a hawkish Fed, fears of a global recession and heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe should only bolster demand for the US currency, investors say. “At the moment it is difficult to see kind of what causes the dollar to weaken from here,” said Iain Stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at JPMorgan. “The Fed hasn’t hit the terminal rate yet, the US economy looks like it’s probably a bit more resilient than some other economies out there.”. Investors are pondering the dollar’s direction after a smaller-than-expected rate increase by the Bank of Canada spurred speculation of a dovish pivot by other central banks. A four-month rally in the greenback has rippled across the globe as a host of currencies tumbled to multi-year lows while import costs in developing nations soared.
It’s too soon to write off the dollar’s dominance as the US rate-hike cycle may not be near its peak. That’s the firm conviction of money managers at JPMorgan Asset Management and Fivestar Asset Management even after a gauge of the greenback touched a one-month low on Thursday. Signs that aggressive Federal Reserve tightening is starting to take a toll are fueling bets for a slower pace of rate increases. But dollar bulls remain undaunted: a hawkish Fed, fears of a global recession and heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe should only bolster demand for the US currency, investors say. “At the moment it is difficult to see kind of what causes the dollar to weaken from here,” said Iain Stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at JPMorgan. “The Fed hasn’t hit the terminal rate yet, the US economy looks like it’s probably a bit more resilient than some other economies out there.”. Investors are pondering the dollar’s direction after a smaller-than-expected rate increase by the Bank of Canada spurred speculation of a dovish pivot by other central banks. A four-month rally in the greenback has rippled across the globe as a host of currencies tumbled to multi-year lows while import costs in developing nations soared.
Bottom-line: 중국공산당 전국대표대회에서 후진타오가 중간에 퇴장하는 모습은 무언가 석연치 않았고, 건강상태 때문이라는 해명에도 불구 추측이 난무하고 있음. 10년에 한 번 열리는 이 정치적 행사에서는 일반적으로 원로를 대우하기 때문에 그가 혼란을 느끼며 퇴장하는 모습은 이례적임. 시진핑이 그동안 권력의 집권에 힘을 썼다는 것을 감안할 때, 그의 건강 상 문제든 혹은 권력에 반대했든 계획에 없던 제거였을 것임.
The finale of the Communist Party’s most important political event is normally carefully noscripted to extol China’s top leaders. But at President Xi Jinping’s coronation last weekend, former leader Hu Jintao’s mysterious exit stole the headlines. The 79-year-old appeared confused as he was led off stage halfway through the closing session of the twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle, sparking intense speculation over what exactly happened to him. Several hours later, the official Xinhua News Agency tweeted Hu felt unwell and needed to rest. “Now, he is much better,” the outlet added. “Xi’s longstanding obsessions with political process and party unity suggest Hu’s removal was unlikely to have been planned, whether Hu experienced a health issue or started protesting against Xi’s dominance of the leadership reshuffle,” said Neil Thomas, a China analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk advisory and consulting firm.
The finale of the Communist Party’s most important political event is normally carefully noscripted to extol China’s top leaders. But at President Xi Jinping’s coronation last weekend, former leader Hu Jintao’s mysterious exit stole the headlines. The 79-year-old appeared confused as he was led off stage halfway through the closing session of the twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle, sparking intense speculation over what exactly happened to him. Several hours later, the official Xinhua News Agency tweeted Hu felt unwell and needed to rest. “Now, he is much better,” the outlet added. “Xi’s longstanding obsessions with political process and party unity suggest Hu’s removal was unlikely to have been planned, whether Hu experienced a health issue or started protesting against Xi’s dominance of the leadership reshuffle,” said Neil Thomas, a China analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk advisory and consulting firm.
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행은 예상 된 바와 같이 75bp의 금리인상을 했으며, 추가적인 인상 여지를 둠. 장기대출프로그램의 경우 이자율을 11월 23일부터 조정하고, 조기상환 날짜를 줄 것이라 함.
The ECB lifted interest rates by 75 basis points, as anticipated, and “expects to raise interest rates further.” The policy statement also says that officials will adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTROs from November 23, and will offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.
The ECB lifted interest rates by 75 basis points, as anticipated, and “expects to raise interest rates further.” The policy statement also says that officials will adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTROs from November 23, and will offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.
Bottom-line: 인플레이션 목표치를 5배 초과하는 현재 상황에서 중앙은행은 경제보다 물가를 낮추는데 계속 집중할 것이라 함.
With inflation almost five times the ECB’s medium-term target, the central bank has given precedence to lowering prices over shielding the economy. A lot of the impulse is coming from hawkish members of the ECB’s governing council like Germany’s Joachim Nagel who has been pushing for more hikes arguing that inflation currently poses the greatest risk to the euro zone economy.
With inflation almost five times the ECB’s medium-term target, the central bank has given precedence to lowering prices over shielding the economy. A lot of the impulse is coming from hawkish members of the ECB’s governing council like Germany’s Joachim Nagel who has been pushing for more hikes arguing that inflation currently poses the greatest risk to the euro zone economy.
Bottom-line: 두 정책 모두 은행이 유동성을 확보하고 있음에 따른 이득을 줄이는 방향임.
Another technical detail in the ECB’s statement: minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem will now be remunerated in line with the deposit rate, rather than the higher main refinancing operations rate. Both this decision and the one on TLTROs will lower the profits banks make on liquidity they hold.
Another technical detail in the ECB’s statement: minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem will now be remunerated in line with the deposit rate, rather than the higher main refinancing operations rate. Both this decision and the one on TLTROs will lower the profits banks make on liquidity they hold.
Bottom-line: 페이스북에 투자하는 주주들은 메타버스에 비싼 값을 지불하고 있음. 올해 주가 하락으로 6,770억 달러의 시가총액이 사라졌으며, 동시에 세계 20위 기업에서 밀려났음. 그럼에도 불구 이 부진의 늪이 끝날 기미는 보이지 않음.
Meta Platforms Inc. shareholders are paying dearly for its spending on the metaverse: The Facebook parent’s market value has collapsed by a whopping $677 billion this year, forcing it out from the ranks of the world’s 20 largest companies. The punishment shows no signs of easing anytime soon. Meta’s stock is down as much as 25% after it spooked investors with ballooning costs to fund its version of virtual reality and a decline in revenue.
Meta Platforms Inc. shareholders are paying dearly for its spending on the metaverse: The Facebook parent’s market value has collapsed by a whopping $677 billion this year, forcing it out from the ranks of the world’s 20 largest companies. The punishment shows no signs of easing anytime soon. Meta’s stock is down as much as 25% after it spooked investors with ballooning costs to fund its version of virtual reality and a decline in revenue.
Docent: 재화를 구입하기 위해 지불할 수 있는 최대한의 금액을 '지불용의가격'이라 함. 최근 기업들의 실적 발표를 살펴보면 강한 소비력으로 인해 소비자들의 지불용의가격이 보다 더 높은 곳에 있음을 알 수 있음. 즉, 기업들은 추가적인 가격인상을 통해 수익을 향상시키고 주가를 지탱할 수 있을 것임. 비자는 이미 소비자 신용에 이상 징후가 없다고 했으며, 이번에 마스터카드 또한 예상치를 상회하는 실적을 발표함. 이미 소비 중심의 업체들도 줄줄이 가격을 올리고 있는데, UPS, 킴벌리-클라크, 맥도날드, 컴캐스트, 그리고 장 후 실적을 발표하는 애플이 있음.
The latest company earnings show consumers are still pretty healthy, allowing companies to hike prices. That’s bolstering profit and can help support equities, even as inflation stings and there are a few signs of cracks, particularly in auto lending. Stocks are mostly shrugging off big tech misses, as my colleague Heather Burke points out, though it’s hard to completely ignore Meta’s stunning fall, on the heels of its epic crash earlier this year. Earlier GDP data held some encouraging signs for stocks as well. Beats from payments giants highlighted strong spending. This morning’s came from Mastercard, with quarterly purchase volume jumping an estimate-topping 15%; Visa’s results showed no sign of impact from an economic slowdown, and American Express reported all-time high revenue. The streak of consumer-facing companies raising prices includes McDonald’s and Comcast, following firms like UPS and Kimberly-Clark, and notably Apple, which reports after the bell.
The latest company earnings show consumers are still pretty healthy, allowing companies to hike prices. That’s bolstering profit and can help support equities, even as inflation stings and there are a few signs of cracks, particularly in auto lending. Stocks are mostly shrugging off big tech misses, as my colleague Heather Burke points out, though it’s hard to completely ignore Meta’s stunning fall, on the heels of its epic crash earlier this year. Earlier GDP data held some encouraging signs for stocks as well. Beats from payments giants highlighted strong spending. This morning’s came from Mastercard, with quarterly purchase volume jumping an estimate-topping 15%; Visa’s results showed no sign of impact from an economic slowdown, and American Express reported all-time high revenue. The streak of consumer-facing companies raising prices includes McDonald’s and Comcast, following firms like UPS and Kimberly-Clark, and notably Apple, which reports after the bell.
Bottom-line: 옵션을 이용해 손실 한도를 제한하고, 마찬가지 최고 수준의 이익도 일정 수준에서 제한되는 소위 완충 상장지수펀드가 부상하고 있음. 상품화 된 기간이 길지 않은 이 전략의 상장지수펀드는 전년 대비 3배에 이르는 80억 달러의 자금 유입이 발생하며 1조 달러가 지워진 상장지수펀드 시장에서 빛을 발하고 있음. 중앙은행이 인플레이션 통제를 위해 정책금리 인상을 지속하며 작년까지와 상반되게 손실보호를 위해 상방의 수익 기회를 기꺼이 희생하고 있음.
As this year’s bruising stock selloff wiped about $1 trillion from the US exchange-traded fund industry, the same turmoil was powering one young breed of fund to its most-explosive growth yet. Assets in so-called buffer ETFs -- which cushion losses in return for a cap on gains -- have surged 80% to $16 billion so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve drawn total net inflows of $8 billion in the span, almost triple the amount in all of last year. Buffer funds use options to protect against a certain amount of losses over a time period, but will also simultaneously limit gains. For example, the Innovator US Equity Power Buffer ETF - October (ticker POCT) seeks to buffer against the first 15% of losses in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) in each annual period starting in October. The cap on gains varies each year, but for the current one that began earlier this month, they’ll be limited at around 20%. Stocks have been rattled by the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of rate hikes to tamp down inflation. Investors’ rush toward buffer funds shows a pivot from previous years in which they were less willing to give up potential gains for greater protection. “It always used to be, ‘you know what, I don’t want to miss out on the upside,’” said Athanasios Psarofagis, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Now I feel like the sentiment has completely flopped: ‘I’m willing to give up some of the upside because the downside right now is so much more important to me.’”
As this year’s bruising stock selloff wiped about $1 trillion from the US exchange-traded fund industry, the same turmoil was powering one young breed of fund to its most-explosive growth yet. Assets in so-called buffer ETFs -- which cushion losses in return for a cap on gains -- have surged 80% to $16 billion so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve drawn total net inflows of $8 billion in the span, almost triple the amount in all of last year. Buffer funds use options to protect against a certain amount of losses over a time period, but will also simultaneously limit gains. For example, the Innovator US Equity Power Buffer ETF - October (ticker POCT) seeks to buffer against the first 15% of losses in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) in each annual period starting in October. The cap on gains varies each year, but for the current one that began earlier this month, they’ll be limited at around 20%. Stocks have been rattled by the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of rate hikes to tamp down inflation. Investors’ rush toward buffer funds shows a pivot from previous years in which they were less willing to give up potential gains for greater protection. “It always used to be, ‘you know what, I don’t want to miss out on the upside,’” said Athanasios Psarofagis, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Now I feel like the sentiment has completely flopped: ‘I’m willing to give up some of the upside because the downside right now is so much more important to me.’”
Bottom-line: 수년 간 채무불이행 위험이 적은 곳에서 높은 이자를 얻을 방법이 없었음. 중앙은행이 보다 완화적인 정책금리 결정을 이어갈 것이란 기대가 커지면서 포트폴리오 매니저들은 지금 투자등급의 채권이 얼마나 매력적인 때인지 강조하고 있음. 이처럼 도산의 확률이 0에 가까운데 높은 이자를 지급하는 투자등급 채권은 유럽에서 일주일 만에 4.6%에서 4.2%로 금리가 하락하며 랠리를 함. 애널리스트들 또한 불확실한 경제환경에서 투기등급보다 투자등급으로 질적 우수성이 중요함을 강조하고 있음.
The increasing talk of a central bank pivot away from aggressive tightening could introduce an element of fear-of-missing-out in the already popular investment-grade corporate bond market. Investors haven’t been able to get such high yields from safe debt in many years and the prospect of rapidly falling rates could tempt them to lock yields in sooner rather than later. Yields in euro-denominated high-grade bonds fell to their lowest level in three weeks after one of their biggest drops of the year on Thursday. The ECB’s dovish tone helped pull yields down to 4.2% from highs of 4.6% only a week ago. Portfolio managers have been shouting from the rooftops about how attractive carry is in the high-grade market at the moment, as investors can be guaranteed a juicy yield to maturity for almost an almost zero probability of default. And analysts have been voicing their preference for quality as fundamentals look set to deteriorate, primarily impacting the more precarious high yield sector.
The increasing talk of a central bank pivot away from aggressive tightening could introduce an element of fear-of-missing-out in the already popular investment-grade corporate bond market. Investors haven’t been able to get such high yields from safe debt in many years and the prospect of rapidly falling rates could tempt them to lock yields in sooner rather than later. Yields in euro-denominated high-grade bonds fell to their lowest level in three weeks after one of their biggest drops of the year on Thursday. The ECB’s dovish tone helped pull yields down to 4.2% from highs of 4.6% only a week ago. Portfolio managers have been shouting from the rooftops about how attractive carry is in the high-grade market at the moment, as investors can be guaranteed a juicy yield to maturity for almost an almost zero probability of default. And analysts have been voicing their preference for quality as fundamentals look set to deteriorate, primarily impacting the more precarious high yield sector.