Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행은 예상 된 바와 같이 75bp의 금리인상을 했으며, 추가적인 인상 여지를 둠. 장기대출프로그램의 경우 이자율을 11월 23일부터 조정하고, 조기상환 날짜를 줄 것이라 함.
The ECB lifted interest rates by 75 basis points, as anticipated, and “expects to raise interest rates further.” The policy statement also says that officials will adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTROs from November 23, and will offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.
The ECB lifted interest rates by 75 basis points, as anticipated, and “expects to raise interest rates further.” The policy statement also says that officials will adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTROs from November 23, and will offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.
Bottom-line: 인플레이션 목표치를 5배 초과하는 현재 상황에서 중앙은행은 경제보다 물가를 낮추는데 계속 집중할 것이라 함.
With inflation almost five times the ECB’s medium-term target, the central bank has given precedence to lowering prices over shielding the economy. A lot of the impulse is coming from hawkish members of the ECB’s governing council like Germany’s Joachim Nagel who has been pushing for more hikes arguing that inflation currently poses the greatest risk to the euro zone economy.
With inflation almost five times the ECB’s medium-term target, the central bank has given precedence to lowering prices over shielding the economy. A lot of the impulse is coming from hawkish members of the ECB’s governing council like Germany’s Joachim Nagel who has been pushing for more hikes arguing that inflation currently poses the greatest risk to the euro zone economy.
Bottom-line: 두 정책 모두 은행이 유동성을 확보하고 있음에 따른 이득을 줄이는 방향임.
Another technical detail in the ECB’s statement: minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem will now be remunerated in line with the deposit rate, rather than the higher main refinancing operations rate. Both this decision and the one on TLTROs will lower the profits banks make on liquidity they hold.
Another technical detail in the ECB’s statement: minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem will now be remunerated in line with the deposit rate, rather than the higher main refinancing operations rate. Both this decision and the one on TLTROs will lower the profits banks make on liquidity they hold.
Bottom-line: 페이스북에 투자하는 주주들은 메타버스에 비싼 값을 지불하고 있음. 올해 주가 하락으로 6,770억 달러의 시가총액이 사라졌으며, 동시에 세계 20위 기업에서 밀려났음. 그럼에도 불구 이 부진의 늪이 끝날 기미는 보이지 않음.
Meta Platforms Inc. shareholders are paying dearly for its spending on the metaverse: The Facebook parent’s market value has collapsed by a whopping $677 billion this year, forcing it out from the ranks of the world’s 20 largest companies. The punishment shows no signs of easing anytime soon. Meta’s stock is down as much as 25% after it spooked investors with ballooning costs to fund its version of virtual reality and a decline in revenue.
Meta Platforms Inc. shareholders are paying dearly for its spending on the metaverse: The Facebook parent’s market value has collapsed by a whopping $677 billion this year, forcing it out from the ranks of the world’s 20 largest companies. The punishment shows no signs of easing anytime soon. Meta’s stock is down as much as 25% after it spooked investors with ballooning costs to fund its version of virtual reality and a decline in revenue.
Docent: 재화를 구입하기 위해 지불할 수 있는 최대한의 금액을 '지불용의가격'이라 함. 최근 기업들의 실적 발표를 살펴보면 강한 소비력으로 인해 소비자들의 지불용의가격이 보다 더 높은 곳에 있음을 알 수 있음. 즉, 기업들은 추가적인 가격인상을 통해 수익을 향상시키고 주가를 지탱할 수 있을 것임. 비자는 이미 소비자 신용에 이상 징후가 없다고 했으며, 이번에 마스터카드 또한 예상치를 상회하는 실적을 발표함. 이미 소비 중심의 업체들도 줄줄이 가격을 올리고 있는데, UPS, 킴벌리-클라크, 맥도날드, 컴캐스트, 그리고 장 후 실적을 발표하는 애플이 있음.
The latest company earnings show consumers are still pretty healthy, allowing companies to hike prices. That’s bolstering profit and can help support equities, even as inflation stings and there are a few signs of cracks, particularly in auto lending. Stocks are mostly shrugging off big tech misses, as my colleague Heather Burke points out, though it’s hard to completely ignore Meta’s stunning fall, on the heels of its epic crash earlier this year. Earlier GDP data held some encouraging signs for stocks as well. Beats from payments giants highlighted strong spending. This morning’s came from Mastercard, with quarterly purchase volume jumping an estimate-topping 15%; Visa’s results showed no sign of impact from an economic slowdown, and American Express reported all-time high revenue. The streak of consumer-facing companies raising prices includes McDonald’s and Comcast, following firms like UPS and Kimberly-Clark, and notably Apple, which reports after the bell.
The latest company earnings show consumers are still pretty healthy, allowing companies to hike prices. That’s bolstering profit and can help support equities, even as inflation stings and there are a few signs of cracks, particularly in auto lending. Stocks are mostly shrugging off big tech misses, as my colleague Heather Burke points out, though it’s hard to completely ignore Meta’s stunning fall, on the heels of its epic crash earlier this year. Earlier GDP data held some encouraging signs for stocks as well. Beats from payments giants highlighted strong spending. This morning’s came from Mastercard, with quarterly purchase volume jumping an estimate-topping 15%; Visa’s results showed no sign of impact from an economic slowdown, and American Express reported all-time high revenue. The streak of consumer-facing companies raising prices includes McDonald’s and Comcast, following firms like UPS and Kimberly-Clark, and notably Apple, which reports after the bell.
Bottom-line: 옵션을 이용해 손실 한도를 제한하고, 마찬가지 최고 수준의 이익도 일정 수준에서 제한되는 소위 완충 상장지수펀드가 부상하고 있음. 상품화 된 기간이 길지 않은 이 전략의 상장지수펀드는 전년 대비 3배에 이르는 80억 달러의 자금 유입이 발생하며 1조 달러가 지워진 상장지수펀드 시장에서 빛을 발하고 있음. 중앙은행이 인플레이션 통제를 위해 정책금리 인상을 지속하며 작년까지와 상반되게 손실보호를 위해 상방의 수익 기회를 기꺼이 희생하고 있음.
As this year’s bruising stock selloff wiped about $1 trillion from the US exchange-traded fund industry, the same turmoil was powering one young breed of fund to its most-explosive growth yet. Assets in so-called buffer ETFs -- which cushion losses in return for a cap on gains -- have surged 80% to $16 billion so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve drawn total net inflows of $8 billion in the span, almost triple the amount in all of last year. Buffer funds use options to protect against a certain amount of losses over a time period, but will also simultaneously limit gains. For example, the Innovator US Equity Power Buffer ETF - October (ticker POCT) seeks to buffer against the first 15% of losses in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) in each annual period starting in October. The cap on gains varies each year, but for the current one that began earlier this month, they’ll be limited at around 20%. Stocks have been rattled by the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of rate hikes to tamp down inflation. Investors’ rush toward buffer funds shows a pivot from previous years in which they were less willing to give up potential gains for greater protection. “It always used to be, ‘you know what, I don’t want to miss out on the upside,’” said Athanasios Psarofagis, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Now I feel like the sentiment has completely flopped: ‘I’m willing to give up some of the upside because the downside right now is so much more important to me.’”
As this year’s bruising stock selloff wiped about $1 trillion from the US exchange-traded fund industry, the same turmoil was powering one young breed of fund to its most-explosive growth yet. Assets in so-called buffer ETFs -- which cushion losses in return for a cap on gains -- have surged 80% to $16 billion so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve drawn total net inflows of $8 billion in the span, almost triple the amount in all of last year. Buffer funds use options to protect against a certain amount of losses over a time period, but will also simultaneously limit gains. For example, the Innovator US Equity Power Buffer ETF - October (ticker POCT) seeks to buffer against the first 15% of losses in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) in each annual period starting in October. The cap on gains varies each year, but for the current one that began earlier this month, they’ll be limited at around 20%. Stocks have been rattled by the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of rate hikes to tamp down inflation. Investors’ rush toward buffer funds shows a pivot from previous years in which they were less willing to give up potential gains for greater protection. “It always used to be, ‘you know what, I don’t want to miss out on the upside,’” said Athanasios Psarofagis, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Now I feel like the sentiment has completely flopped: ‘I’m willing to give up some of the upside because the downside right now is so much more important to me.’”
Bottom-line: 수년 간 채무불이행 위험이 적은 곳에서 높은 이자를 얻을 방법이 없었음. 중앙은행이 보다 완화적인 정책금리 결정을 이어갈 것이란 기대가 커지면서 포트폴리오 매니저들은 지금 투자등급의 채권이 얼마나 매력적인 때인지 강조하고 있음. 이처럼 도산의 확률이 0에 가까운데 높은 이자를 지급하는 투자등급 채권은 유럽에서 일주일 만에 4.6%에서 4.2%로 금리가 하락하며 랠리를 함. 애널리스트들 또한 불확실한 경제환경에서 투기등급보다 투자등급으로 질적 우수성이 중요함을 강조하고 있음.
The increasing talk of a central bank pivot away from aggressive tightening could introduce an element of fear-of-missing-out in the already popular investment-grade corporate bond market. Investors haven’t been able to get such high yields from safe debt in many years and the prospect of rapidly falling rates could tempt them to lock yields in sooner rather than later. Yields in euro-denominated high-grade bonds fell to their lowest level in three weeks after one of their biggest drops of the year on Thursday. The ECB’s dovish tone helped pull yields down to 4.2% from highs of 4.6% only a week ago. Portfolio managers have been shouting from the rooftops about how attractive carry is in the high-grade market at the moment, as investors can be guaranteed a juicy yield to maturity for almost an almost zero probability of default. And analysts have been voicing their preference for quality as fundamentals look set to deteriorate, primarily impacting the more precarious high yield sector.
The increasing talk of a central bank pivot away from aggressive tightening could introduce an element of fear-of-missing-out in the already popular investment-grade corporate bond market. Investors haven’t been able to get such high yields from safe debt in many years and the prospect of rapidly falling rates could tempt them to lock yields in sooner rather than later. Yields in euro-denominated high-grade bonds fell to their lowest level in three weeks after one of their biggest drops of the year on Thursday. The ECB’s dovish tone helped pull yields down to 4.2% from highs of 4.6% only a week ago. Portfolio managers have been shouting from the rooftops about how attractive carry is in the high-grade market at the moment, as investors can be guaranteed a juicy yield to maturity for almost an almost zero probability of default. And analysts have been voicing their preference for quality as fundamentals look set to deteriorate, primarily impacting the more precarious high yield sector.
Bottom-line: 투자자들이 주식시장에 막대한 자금을 투입하고 있지만 중앙은행의 공격적 정책금리 인상이 이어지며 상승은 제한적일 것으로 봄. 전세계 주식형 펀드에 한 주에 230억 달러가 유입되며 올해 3월 이후 최고치를 기록함. 이 자금들은 중앙은행의 정책 선회 기대감이 촉발한 유입이나 인플레이션이 낮아지거나 실업률이 상승하지 않는 이상 이 기대는 섣부르다 판단함. 금리인상 정점 이후 금리인하로 돌아서는 것 또한 실업률 5.5%로 현재 3.5%과 괴리가 큼. 현재 지수에서 5% 정도를 상단으로, 이후 내년 상반기 주식시장 바닥을 보는 전략가 입장에서는 현재는 짧은 약세 시장의 반등 정도로 평가하고 있음.
Investors are pouring large sums into equities but the rally has limited room to run as the Federal Reserve remains steadfast on hiking interest rates, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Global equity funds saw about $23 billion of inflows in the week through Oct. 26, the largest amount since March, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. In the US, equity funds had $21.4 billion of inflows. Cash funds saw additions of $28.4 billion, while gold saw a $500 million redemption. Still, it’s too early for a Fed policy pivot “absent sudden collapse in inflation & payrolls,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in the note. The central bank normally starts cutting only once the unemployment rate exceeds 5.5% versus the current rate of 3.5%, they said. The S&P 500 is set for a second week of gains as traders parse earnings releases and economic data, with a report showing the US economy rebounded following two quarterly contractions in part due to resilient consumers and businesses. The rally is only a “bear hug,” according to the strategists, who see the S&P 500 extending gains to as much as 4,000 points -- about 5% from the last close -- before pulling back again and hitting a low in the first quarter of next year.
Investors are pouring large sums into equities but the rally has limited room to run as the Federal Reserve remains steadfast on hiking interest rates, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Global equity funds saw about $23 billion of inflows in the week through Oct. 26, the largest amount since March, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. In the US, equity funds had $21.4 billion of inflows. Cash funds saw additions of $28.4 billion, while gold saw a $500 million redemption. Still, it’s too early for a Fed policy pivot “absent sudden collapse in inflation & payrolls,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in the note. The central bank normally starts cutting only once the unemployment rate exceeds 5.5% versus the current rate of 3.5%, they said. The S&P 500 is set for a second week of gains as traders parse earnings releases and economic data, with a report showing the US economy rebounded following two quarterly contractions in part due to resilient consumers and businesses. The rally is only a “bear hug,” according to the strategists, who see the S&P 500 extending gains to as much as 4,000 points -- about 5% from the last close -- before pulling back again and hitting a low in the first quarter of next year.
Market Pulse: 오늘의 지표는 예상치의 근소한 상회/하회보다 여전히 상승 추세의 인플레이션에도 소비가 끊이지 않음이 중앙은행을 자극한단 사실에 주목하고 있음.
A core gauge of US inflation accelerated in September, while consumer spending stayed resilient, indicating price pressures and solid demand that reinforce the Federal Reserve’s case for another big interest-rate hike next week.
A core gauge of US inflation accelerated in September, while consumer spending stayed resilient, indicating price pressures and solid demand that reinforce the Federal Reserve’s case for another big interest-rate hike next week.
Bottom-line: 상원의원 두명이 중앙은행에 정책금리 인상에 대해 간섭한 것에 대해 로렌스 서머스 전 재무장관이 비판했음. 이런 행동은 '바보 게임'이나 다름 없으며, 정치적 압박은 중앙은행으로 하여금 더욱 그들이 독립적이란 것을 증명하고 싶도록 할 것임. 결국 그들은 독립적 주체임을 증명하기 위해 정치적 압박에 전혀 귀 귀울이지 않을 것이며, 긴축적 정책을 더욱 심화할 수도 있을 것이라 함.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized moves to apply political pressure on the Federal Reserve over its aggressive interest-rate hikes, after two Democratic senators wrote the central bank chief this week. “Political pressure is a fool’s game,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. On one hand, the Fed may become even more determined to tighten, in an effort to demonstrate its independence. On the other, public pressure could undermine investor confidence in the Fed’s campaign, he said. “Frankly, the Fed doesn’t listen -- and, if anything, feels more pressure to prove its independence,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg Television. “So they don’t influence short-term rates and what the Fed actually does. But they do raise questions in the mind of market participants, and they raise long-term rates.”
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized moves to apply political pressure on the Federal Reserve over its aggressive interest-rate hikes, after two Democratic senators wrote the central bank chief this week. “Political pressure is a fool’s game,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. On one hand, the Fed may become even more determined to tighten, in an effort to demonstrate its independence. On the other, public pressure could undermine investor confidence in the Fed’s campaign, he said. “Frankly, the Fed doesn’t listen -- and, if anything, feels more pressure to prove its independence,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg Television. “So they don’t influence short-term rates and what the Fed actually does. But they do raise questions in the mind of market participants, and they raise long-term rates.”